FLAT RACING THURS 14TH JUNE

[richard-westwood]

3 BETS 1WINS STAKES 6.00 PROFIT +12.00 HAY 8.20 trail blaze been posting some good times and still looks capable of more ...nice price 2pts win 9/2 bet365 5.05 newb nicholascopericus looked a horse to follow and looks well in today on favoured ground 2pts win 11/8 bet365 3.40 nott bilidn revelation lately winning in best time lastest and not extended ......hard to beat 2pts win 11/10 bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 14TH JUNE 2.50 Newbury - 2pts win Beauchamp Castle @ 10/1 (VC) A few of these have questions to answer and whilst my selection does too, she's a fair price and I think she can go very well here if handling the soft ground on her turf debut. She's by Motivator - whose progeny have a good record on such surfaces so I have my fingers crossed that she will add to that record with a good performance here. It's interesting to me that William Buick takes the ride for the first time on this filly, and only for the 2nd time for Hans Adielsson. His only other ride saw him finish 2nd so his booking is a positive sign in my eyes. This one has often been partnered by Nicole Nordblad, who is not the best pilot in the world and George Baker last time was the only run Beauchamp Castle has had without Nordblad in the saddle. She showed respectable, if rather modest form in maidens and novice events before winning her handicap debut off a mark of 59. It was quite a taking performance over the mile at Kempton off the back of a lay-off over the winter and she came with a decisive run down the outside to win by a comfortable 1 1/2l under a hands ride from Nordblad. However, the jockey didn't give her the best of rides the next twice at Lingfield and Wolverhampton respectively - as she made ground very wide around the bends before staying on. She wasn't beaten too far at all and I think a straight track will really play to her strengths. She's a long-striding, galloping type who should relish the straight here today so long as the surface is no issue. Since her 3rd at Wolverhampton she has travelled okay but failed to pick up over 1m3f and 1m4f at Kempton. It's difficult to say whether she gets home as she hasn't exactly been stopping to nothing in these races but it doesn't seem a bad thing that she's stepped back down to a mile here - where her best performances have lied. Even though this is a small field, a fair few of them seem to want to go forward and a good pace will really help this one today. The yard had a bit of a quieter time over the last month or so - a possible excuse for Beauchamp Castle's flatter runs and now they are flying. It's a good time for her to return to the track and the blinkers are applied in an attempt to bring a bit more out of her. 4.55 Yarmouth - 3pts win Byron Blue @ 7/1 (Bet365) Jamie Osbourne's runner has been a frustrating horse to follow, having been sent off at 3/1, 5/1, 6/1 and 5/1 on his last four starts without landing a blow, and although he's not much bigger today (and may be backed in again), the continuous steps up in trip are bringing him closer to the boil and the 1m6f trip on offer here might just be the decisive factor in getting him into the winner's enclosure. His 4l 3rd to Unex Michelangelo over 7f on just his 2nd start last year reads well considering what has gone since, and he's sliding down the handicap to now run off 5lbs lower than his opening mark. This came in a mile race at Nottingham at the back-end of last season where he was struggling in the rear before making up some late ground. He was never dangerous but passed a few rivals late in the day to suggest he does have some ability when the conditions are right. He's a slow-starter without much of a change in pace so the further he goes, the better he should run within reason. His seasonal reappearance at Goodwood over 1m2f this season was very eyecatching for me as he stayed on really well in the closing stages from an uncompromising position. He was right out the back, hampered, and then delivered isolated up the centre of the course (often best to be on stands rail in soft conditions). He ended up 5th of 13 under pretty generous handling. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have run well enough since to suggest the form holds some water so I don't think it was a terrible run, for all it shouted out like he'd want even further. He got that last time out over 1m4f and came closest yet when beaten 5 1/4l. I'm not sure it was a sufficient-enough test given the ground was on the quick side, and although it is again today, he has an extra 2f to play with. It was a similar story as he was slowly away and behind before staying on into 6th. His pedigree contains plenty of stamina, being by Dylan Thomas and the 1m6f trip looks the obvious thing to do with him today. This might just be his trip based on what we've seen so far and it could make his mark look fair. The yard are going okay and Jamie Spencer takes the ride for the first time. It isn't a special race and fingers crossed the key to this one has been found and he can repay the faith of connections and punters alike. 5.15 Nottingham - 3pts win Napoleon's Muse @ 10/1 (Bet365) Ralph Beckett has his horses in fine order at present after a bit of a quieter spell in May - the month in which Napoleon's Muse made her second run of the year. She ran okay in the contest but considering the yard are in better shape now, she may be capable of even better. He sends this one to Nottingham where he has a 52% strike rate with regards to horses either winning or placing and I think his filly has a really good chance at a nice price here. After a disappointing debut when unfancied at Goodwood, she dug in really deep to win over 7f at Kempton on her 2nd start. You would have given her little chance at the top of the straight seen as she was driven along whilst many others were still going well on the bridle but she kept digging in and staying on to eventually prevail by a head. It was a performance which suggested she'd need further to be shown at her very best and it's no surprise on pedigree given she's by an Arc winner and out of a lightly-raced mile winner (funnily enough her only win came at Nottingham). She was put away for the winter subsequently and I think her return effort at Windsor can be excused. She's been off the track for seven months or so and I don't think the ground was ideal. It was very testing that day and her action implies she needs a sound surface to be at her best. Even though she was detached out the back with half a mile to run, she kept on to some degree to finish 9th of 12 and she was bound to improve for that given the unsuitable conditions she faced on her first run back. It suggested she had some stamina though not to completely tail off so there was a small amount of promise in the run. It was no surprise to see her run much better in quite a competitive handicap at Newmarket on quicker ground last time out. She led the group on the stands side and kept on fairly well under pressure rather than buckling. She finished 8th of 16 in the end and was only beaten 4 1/2l. The race has worked out pretty nicely too and I think Napoleon's Muse will be happier stepped up in trip to 1m2f today given the way she shaped over a fairly testing mile. I don't think a mark of 72 is beyond her and she's overpriced for me with conditions to suit. Although the ground is good to soft in places, it's good on the whole and the weather is supposedly set fair so the ground should dry out further before the race. I'm not sure those rated 70 and below in this are going to be good enough to win, and Forgive/Arch Of Colours have to prove they stay this trip. Ambivalent raced keenly over a mile on debut before flopping next time out and returns from a 253-day absence to try this new trip so I'll take that one on, leaving just Dutch Diamond rating as the main danger. A repeat of her run last time out gives her a good chance but the race hasn't worked out very well and she could just be vulnerable late on in the race given her pedigree doesn't exactly scream out middle-distances and as of yet, no horse by Dutch Art has won over further than 1m 1/2f.