Jump Racing - Tuesday 5th June

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2.25 DOWNPATRICK BLACK ROCK LAKE 4pts to win @ 11/2 bog (Paddy Power) Black Rock Lake is one of the two C&D winners in this race and I quite rate this factor for special tracks like Downpatrick. Not only she's won here (29 Aug 2011, 2m2f handicap off 98 on good to firm) but finished 2nd and 3rd in her previous two starts over C&D and ran well also last time out. She's run again over C&D 25 days ago (second last start) and finished 7th of 9 but that was a very tough race (mares' hurdle) where she had to face all the 6 rivals that beat her on very difficult terms. The easy winner of that race, Nodelay (former C&D winner), was already 5lb wrong on official figures with Black Rock Lake that day and has been upped 11lb after that success. The second of that race was Benefit Of Porter who ran really well over fences next time out finishing 3rd 5L behind Definite Class and just 1.75L behind 132-rated Shop Dj (racing on level terms with both) and bolted up back on flat on her last start 3 days ago. She is rated 121 over hurdles and was racing that day on 7lb better terms than Black Rock Lake. The fifth of that race was Back In A Tic who was getting 5lb by Black Rock Lake and is rated 116 (14lb higher) and finished just 1.5L ahead of her. Back In A Tic ran really well yesterday at Listowel in a handicap off 116 (very close third). The sixth of that race was the 9/4 favourite Maggie Connolly. The mare trained by Willie Mullins (with Ruby Walsh on board that day) has not been enjoying a special period of form in the last couple of months but is still rated 125 and was getting 5lb from Black Rock Lake who finished just a head behind her. All this long story about that race (which was just the second start after a long winter break for my selection) to underline that even that 7th place over C&D confirmed how well Black Rock Lake runs here at Downpatrick over this distance (1m2f) and on good ground (firmer is even better for her). Seven days ago (29 May) the 6yo grey mare ran at Ballinrobe back in handicap off 102 (same mark as today) over 2m4f (good) and finished 3rd 2L behind The Grey Express and 8L behind the easy winner Mister Benedectine who bolted up again off a 6lb higher mark 2 days ago at Kilbeggan and is surely ready for way better things. That was another good performance for Black Rock Lake who was always prominent and just missed that turn of foot in the final couple of furlongs when stamina came into play which underlines once more that 2m4f is a bit too far for her (her 2 wins and 3 seconds came all over 2m and 2m2f). This is a big drop in class from that last race over C&D (she just gets in in this 80-102 handicap being rated 102) and the mare should be fully fit after a couple of races after a long winter break. Her trainer T.G. McCourt saddled a winner four days ago at Down Royal and Downpatrick is by far the trainer's favourite track: 4 winners from 27 runners (15%) in the last 4 years at the Northern Irish track producing a very good level stake profit of +26.5. T.C. Carroll claims 5lb today and was on Black Rock Lake also last time out. Carroll rode that winner saddled by McCourt at Down Royal on the 1st of June and knows very well these tracks: he's 5-41 in races over hurdles in the two Northern Irish tracks. The strong favourite of the race is Bank The Bucks who won in good style (idling once in front) 8 days ago at Ballinrobe a handicap over 2m (good to firm) off 87 (first race after the winter break) and races here off a 9lb higher mark (96). The second of that race Usa won a maiden next time out (the day after) and franked that form but this 6yo gelding trained by Hand, who has never had a runner at Downpatrick and has saddled just 1 winner (Bank The Bucks of course) from 45 runners in the last 4 seasons, had shown nothing on his previous 10 starts (a fourth on his last start in 2011 was his best ever result) and finished 10th of 15 beaten 57L on his only start over this track (Sep 2010) when still trained by Aidan Anthony Howard. So imho there is a bit to prove for this short-priced favourite today. T.C. Carroll rode Bank The Bucks on his last three starts last year so Black Rock Lake's jockey should know very well his main rival which is not a bad thing for sure.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing - Tuesday 5th June [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Ffos Las 5:45 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Royale Performance [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 2/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 05/06/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 0.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Trainer Tim Vaughan an Richard Johnson goes into the day having won 4 out of 5 runners this month. Wins came from Stratford (2), Uttoxeter (1), and Towcester (1). Distance ranged from 2m to 2m6f with the SP's from 7-4 to 9-1. They finishe the last nine days of May with 11 runners, 3 wins, 4 seconds, 2 thirds, with the unpaced runners finishing 4th an 6th, They team up with four runners at Ffos Las today. Fine Sesolve (2:30), Donnachas (3:35), Solaras Exhibition (4:40), and Royale Performance (5:45). I do however only like one of the runners to be backed and that is Royale Performance who runs in a bumper at 5:45. She showed improvement with Johnson on board for the first time last time out finishing 3rd of 6 by 13 lengths compare to 8th of 9 by 77 lengths on debut with Sam Thomas on board. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]