Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.30 York - 1pt win Euston Square @ 20/1 (PP) Personally think this runner is overpriced in this given conditions should be perfect for him to bring his A-game to the table. He's not from the most stylish yard in the world which probably contributes somewhat but Alistair Whillans has his string in good order and I can't help but feel his gelding will outrun his price today here. He's well-handicapped on his win off 77 at Ripon last July for all he had a 5lb claimer on board that day, as he races off 72 here and he was a comfortable 1 3/4l victor on that occasion. That was over this 1m2f trip which I think is his optimum. He's been in and out since but ran sound races off higher marks in decent handicaps back at Ripon and today's venue of York when beaten 3 1/2l in 6th off a 7lb higher mark in October (very wide draw). He's drawn wide again today but he won't be rushing to take the lead I wouldn't have thought so hopefully PJ McDonald can get him across into a decent position. He took a couple of runs to find top gear since returning in 2012 and then was only beaten a neck off a mark of 73 at Haydock when he just couldn't reel in the leader. That's another piece of form that gives him a chance here and although he bombed out at Ayr next time, his three most recent efforts also give him hope. Although the race he ran in back at the Scottish venue after that hasn't really worked out, it was still an encouraging performance behind a runaway 9l victor. Taking out the winner he went down by 1l by the runner-up and he was very slowly into stride which cost him 6 or 7 lengths. He put in good late work and it was a similar scenario two starts back (although not as bad at start). On that occasion, the leader stacked them up before quickening around the bend and it didn't suit my selection for all he finished really well. The 1m4f trip caught him out last time at Doncaster as he disputed 2nd at the furlong pole before fading quite badly late on and I think a soundly-run 1m2f is exactly what he wants at a course with a long straight - allowing him time to deliver his effort as he can take a little bit of time to hit top gear. A large field such as this should help him get cover and receive a solid gallop to run off that is true at the same time. There are a fair few pace merchants in the race which should keep it honest and I just think this one will be staying on at the finish and I see no reason why he can't shake things up at the business end.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.20 Bath - 2pts win Felix Fabulla @ 7/2 (Bet365) Very interested in Hughie Morrison's runner in here who has promised that he has a race like this in him and the step up in trip looks a real help in his quest to do so. He's shown promise since running green on debut and he should have no issues with this 1m2f trip based on what we've seen of him so far. Although he was beaten 9 lengths at Salisbury on his second start I think he shaped a bit better than that. I think things just happened a little bit quickly for him as he was on and off the bridle a bit before having to be switched out wide away from the rail which wouldn't have helped. He did plug on afterwards and it was a decent race. The first four horses home are probably 80ish horses so it was always going to be a stiff task for my selection (rated 67) over that trip. He ran an even more eyecatching race at Epsom last time when not enjoying the course. He was sat in a group some way off the leading bunch and ran wide into the turn. The first three were at the head of affairs throughout and Nicky Mackay just tried to keep Felix Fabulla going downhill without getting serious and he really did stay on takingly for not a huge amount of pressure to take a closing 4th come the line. Given the course today should suit much better - as should the trip - I think he's shown plenty enough to be able to win this for a yard with a good record at the track.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.50 Bath - 2pts win Pelham Crescent @ 11/1 (Hills) Bryn Palling's horse is extremely well handicapped on his best form and the fact there has been nibbles of support for him makes him a real betting proposition here in my eyes. I've backed him numerous times in the past but he's been comfortably out of form of late, for all he has had excuses at times. He's dropped to a very lowly mark of 55 with most of his wins coming off marks in the low-mid 70s. He's also a 4 time winner here at Bath and quick ground is something he enjoys also. If he bounces back here at his favourite venue then he should be able to win this quite nicely off such a mark. The crucial thing about this horse is the fact that Palling's horses were badly out of form prior to September as the trainer went seven months and 59 runners without a winner. He's not someone who gets loads of winners anyway but the fact that he got off the cold list a few days ago with a winner and has also had one beaten a short-head in this month so far suggests his horses could be coming good. All four of his most recent runners have run just about to form and I get the impression that this one has been showing more at home to justify the market support. Luke Morris is back on board and if, as it seems maybe the case, his sparkle is returning, this is a race that he should be more than capable of picking up.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Felix Fabulla wins but Pelham Crescent 2nd at 12/1. Pain in the arse.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.20 Leicester - 1pt win Gallego @ 16/1 (PP) Not a particularly strong race and although Richard Price's old boy hasn't shown his usual spark of late I think he ran well enough last time to suggest he can play a part in the finish here today. Although he runs best at Salisbury he's run well here before and the step up to 1m2f shouldn't be an issue as he's run several times over this trip. It's a surprise he hasn't won a race this term but he's run a couple of decent races in defeat and is possibly just shaping as if he needs this far nowadays. He missed the break badly last time over a mile and he did fairly well to stay on into 5th of 11 for all he was well-held. However, for all his last four efforts have been questionable, they came during a month where the Price yard were operating at a 3% strike rate (1-30) whereas they've had a much more successful September so far. Three winners have gone in and two seconds from from just nine runners so hopefully the same sort of form will carry across to the 10yo today. Jack Duern would be one of the more capable apprentices so his booking isn't a bad one and hopefully we'll see more sparkle this afternoon.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.25 Chester - 2pts win Clon Brulee @ 5/1 (Bet365) I'd be a little concerned about the ground with the favourite and think one of the course and distance winners in the field can add to their tally at the track today. David Barron has a 20% strike rate at the track and his gelding in this race was an eased down winner here two starts back from a horse who has subsequently gone in off an 8lb higher mark. Clon Brulee is 7lbs higher for the success and I think he's capable of defying that back here. He could only finish midfield at Goodwood last time over 1m3f but it was a hot race and not one that suited him in my opinion. This is a bit easier and it turned into a bit of a speed contest there as they quickened up the straight. My selection could just keep plodding along up the inside rail and finished 8th of 16. The winner went well off 7lbs higher since, the runner-up likewise off 6lbs higher, the 5th and 11th have won since and the 6th, 7th, 10th and 16th have gone on to place. The mark of Barron's runner has stayed the same and with his sights lowered I think he has a big chance of bouncing back at a venue he's already shown a liking for.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.05 Sandown - 2pts win Zaeem @ 15/2 (PP) I have my reservations over the first two in the betting here with the favourite returning from the best part of three months off the track and therefore possibly not at his sharpest and I think the 2nd favourite will prove happier with some give in the ground. On that evidence I'm quite happy to side with what I believe is the value bet in the race with Mahmood Al-Zarooni's runner. I think conditions are spot on for him today as a flat, galloping track over a mile on quick ground should be up his street. It took him a little while to get off the mark but faced some good horses in maidens and was authoritative in victory at Brighton off 8lbs lower a couple of starts back. He won with plenty in hand and I don't think that's his track either, really. I just think he bumped into a decent type at Newmarket last time when finishing a useful 2nd. The race looks solid enough and I think he can get involved here again at a nice price. I don't think the two most fancied runners will be quite at their best for the reasons explained above and if one is going to take advantage I'm hopeful of that being Harry Bentley's mount.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 1.50 Doncaster - 2pts win Jake's Destiny @ 6/1 (Boyles) I posted this before his run at Goodwood:

4.55 Goodwood - 2pts win Jake's Destiny @ 10/1 (Bet365) Not the type of race I usually like to get involved in considering there are numerous in here with potentially progressive profiles but I am sweet on the chances of George Baker's runner, who is lightly raced, and has shown plenty of form in all starts to date. He's never been out of the frame and I'm hoping that will again be the case as he seems to be improving with every run. Having shown promise on debut when staying on over 6f at Wolverhampton, he comfortably got off the mark over the same c&d. Bumped into a horse rated 15lbs superior and only receiving 6lbs from it at Lingfield next time out, with that horse enjoying a soft lead as he loves, so it was no surprise to see him fail to turn him over. Still finished well to finish 2nd with Kieren Fallon allowing him to come home without being hit with the whip. That was his final run of 2011 as he was put away before going handicapping in 2012. He continued his improvement by chasing home the progressive Chil The Kite at Doncaster. That winner has won again well off 6lbs higher and also had the advantage of a recent run over my selection. The slight concern is that he took a little bit of time to find full stride so the drop to 7f isn't obviously a help. Judging on his pedigree the heavy ground he contested at Newmarket last time might not have been ideal, so to run as well as he did it a big encouragement. I think he'll be better on a sounder surface and he looked the likely winner for much of the contest. He travelled pretty well throughout and quickened with two others but just dropped to 3rd late on. He definitely does stay the mile but showed sufficient pace to suggest 7f won't be a problem now he's fully fit and the front three were clear at HQ. He's only 1lb higher for a neck defeat here so isn't handicapped out of things. Will probably need this to be a good test over this 7f trip, or at least be close to the pace and if either of those things come to fruition, I think I'm on a horse with plenty of hope.

In the end my slight fears over the trip proved correct as the 7f around Goodwood just wasn't ideal for him in such a competitive event. He stayed on steadily down the outside into 6th of 16 and wasn't too far behind the chasing pack who couldn't get very close to the impressive winner (won again next time out). It was clear that he needed either a more galloping track, further or both, and he gets both today as he returns to the track he ran very well at on his seasonal return. The winner of that race has done more to frank the form since and one of the runners that my selection clashed with in a three-way finish at Newmarket won by 8l in a handicap next time. His form looks rock solid and he's the only 3yo in the field here so he could be the one to side with receiving weight. Paul Hanagan is a top lightweight jockey so his booking is a positive and he can go really well returned to these conditions. 4.50 Doncaster - 2pts win Ajmany @ 6/1 (Bet365) Although I understand why the Gosden runner is the favourite for this I do feel the Luca Cumani-trained Ajmany should be a bit shorter than a 6/1 shot on what we've seen so far. He was clearly well thought of to be sent straight into listed company on debut over 5f at Ascot in the Windsor Castle stakes but found things happening far too quickly for him and was detached at halfway. However, he finished 14th of 23 having made some nice late progress and all things considered it was a good effort really. He was sent off the odds-on favourite at Yarmouth upped to 6f next time as he again shaped as if further would suit when beaten 1/2l by a horse now rated 95. On that evidence it looks like the mark of 81 handed to my selection could be lenient strictly speaking. It was clear 6f would be a bare minimum for him as he was outpaced before staying on again at York over that trip but it was another strong affair. The runner-up has won 2/2 since and will be rated in the 90s and the 3rd has proven his worth as a handicapper at around the 80-rated level. I just think my selection hasn't been running short of his mark at all over 6f so he should very much be able to continue on the upward curve off such a rating now racing under more suitable conditions. It was no surprise to see him comfortably get off the mark over 7f last time out in a maiden which looks solid. The 3rd, beaten 4l, has subsequently been given a rating of 77 having narrowly failed next time out and I just think there's more to come from Ajmany who wasn't doing much in front. There is stamina on his dam's side and the way he won showed there would be no issues over the mile trip here this afternoon. I still believe there's further scope off his mark and can prove tough to beat. 5.20 Doncaster - 1pt win Dreamspeed @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Fattsota is respected in here alongside others but he got a fairly soft lead at Ascot when winning last time and I just feel there are plenty of horses who won't want to be far away in this field. That should help my selection can a nice tow into the race which helps and he can be a keen-going sort so fingers crossed he will be able to settle okay this afternoon. He's a horse who showed plenty of ability in 2010 which included victory in the Epsom Derby Trial and a very good 3rd to Clowance and Poet in a hot Group 3. He wasn't seen for the best part of 18 months having disappointed a bit on the all-weather at Kempton and badly needed the return at Newbury in May. However, his two subsequent runs have been plenty promising enough and gives him a genuine chance of getting involved here. His surprise 4th of 15 at 40/1 in the Old Newton Cup was no fluke and he was simply a non-stayer in the Ebor when finishing 9th of 19. He raced freely throughout but travelled better than the vast majority and was in the firing line until backing out inside the final couple of furlongs. He wasn't disgraced in defeat, though, and the return to this trip will be a big blessing. His runs since his 2yo days have mainly come on soft ground which is interesting considering both career wins have come on a sound surface so I don't envisage a problem with the better ground on offer today. It should mean they go a bit quicker too which will definitely help as it he can drop his head then that would increase his chances convincingly. He should be in tip-top shape now having had three runs back after a long break and I just think he's overpriced in here. It is a competitive event but this is easier than a couple of the races he's run in recently and conditions can help him go close I hope.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.10 Bath - 2pts win Trulee Scrumptious @ 13/2 (Skybet) For all this filly may have been flattered on a couple of starts in a higher grade of late I'm surprised she's been priced up at such odds as it may be the case that headgear has sharpened her up and she's essentially running off 20lbs and 15lbs lower than her last two runs respectively. She was only beaten 1 1/4l when 30lbs out of the handicap 2 starts back and for all it was a slowly-run affair, that's still a fine effort in a race with a couple of decent types in it. She didn't get quite as close last time out but again wasn't disgraced in 6th and it was a much better race than this also. This is much more her grade and she gets to run off a mark of 55 now. The visor replaces the blinkers and I think 13/2 is great value.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.40 Bath - 1pt win Typography @ 11/1 (VC) If you can forgive this one's no-show on soft ground last time out then it's hard to believe he's an 11/1 shot for this contest. All of his other form is rock solid and looks sure to go close if he returns to that sort of level this afternoon. He outran his odds of 50/1 on debut when keeping on in a decent maiden to be beaten 6 1/2l by a now 88-rated individual with the next three animals now plying their trade in low-mid 70s company. My selection shaped as if he'd come on plenty for the run and looked as if needing further than the 7f once more when not beaten far at Kempton. His reappearance run has worked out very nicely with the winner progressive (now rated 96 after winning 3 handicaps on the spin) and the 3rd comfortably won off 73 next time out. My selection was beaten 1 1/4l by that one and it was his first run for eight months. He was never at the races when 4th of 4 last time at Ffos Las but it was very deep ground and this will suit much more. A mark of 70 is not beyond him with ideal conditions and Martin Dwyer rides the track very well (24%). Hopefully he can bounce back today.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.00 Wolverhampton - 2pts win My New Angel @ 10/1 (VC) I really feel that Paul Green's runner is overpriced in here as you can totally disregard her run last time out over 1m4f on soft ground at Catterick. That's simply against her and it's made her price very tempting this afternoon. Her runs on ground with soft in the description have seen her beaten 15l, 23l, 15l, 8.5l and 23l now whereas since winning in March, her form on better ground or the all-weather has seen her beaten no more than 6l. She handles the fibresand well so I'm hoping the polytrack will also suit. After winning at Southwell she ran over 1m4f and then twice on easy ground so those efforts can be ignored also. She was an unlucky 8th at Chester on good ground afterwards (no clear run, coasted home in midfield) and two decent runs on the fibresand followed that - the latter 2nd coming to a well-handicapped rival over an insufficient 7f. So if you take her form when she has her conditions it looks capable of taking a race of this nature. The yard are in good form and she's drawn well in stall 2 and has a handy apprentice on board. Capable of going well.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.50 Folkestone - 2pts win Infinite Hope @ 7/1 (Bet365) Although there appear to be a few in this race with genuine chances, I'm not totally convinced by a few of these who are a bit underpriced in my book. Al Baidaa can be a keen-going sort and that would concern me as he steps up 2f in trip and therefore can be sidestepped in a hunt for value. Enery is 9lbs higher for a neck victory on turf and I just think his mark on this surface could prove a bit stiff as he's a better animal on the all-weather. The horse I like in here is unexposed with just three runs under her belt to date and is on the upward curve I believe. She was an unfortunate runner-up on debut when beaten a neck by a nice type who has subsequently got a mark of 86 (was very unlucky herself off 83 last time). Infinite Hope shaped well enough when 3rd next time at Doncaster over 1m2f but just looked as if she'd be seen to better effect with stamina drawn out further. She was beaten by two 80-something horses so no mugs and she didn't go down by far. The hood was applied at Folkestone last time out and she dug in well to win at the third attempt. She proved a neck too strong and again looked as if this step up to 1m4f would be an aid. The maiden wasn't bad and there's scope up in trip off a mark of 82 I think for a yard in fine form.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.30 Yarmouth - 1pt win Blimey O'Riley @ 11/1 (PP) Mark Tomkins' runner has come down to an attractive mark and considering his runs recently have come laden with excuses, he should be primed to strike now he tackles a race with conditions much more in his favour. He racked up a hat-trick in 2008 but wasn't seen for three years afterwards and understandably trailed home at Goodwood on his return last autumn. He proved he still had the form when landing a two-mile contest next time off a 3lb higher mark than he runs off today before biting off more than he could chew in a hot Newmarket handicap won by the highly progressive Gulf Of Naples (25lbs higher today than on that occasion). My selection was quite weak in the market on that occasion also. Although he hasn't done too much since he ran okay after a break earlier this year when presumably needing the run and then ran well over a slightly too-taxing 2m1f at Pontefract. Only faded late on at the testing track and the heavy ground was simply well against him last time. Returns to a trip he enjoys today on ground which is better and off a fair mark. William Buick is a top jockey booking which catches the eye and I think we'll get a much better showing later on today.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Really poor run of form at present. Was no surprise that Infinite Hope didn't win given she drifted from 11/4 to 11/1(!) and Blimey O'Riley looked a bit awkward but the race wasn't run to suit either. Badly in need of a couple of results.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 6.15 Kempton - 2pts win Shooting Jacket @ 5/1 (Bet365) For all the favourite should enjoy this step up in trip, the form of its maiden win hasn't exactly been franked and I feel he's opposable at the prices. Mahmood Al-Zarooni's runner is another who should relish this 1m2f having been seen staying on here over a mile last time out. Was 8l behind a very smart type who subsequently won a nice little novice race and I believe a mark of 68 for this horse is very much within his grasp now stamina is drawn out further. His sire has a fine record on the all-weather with his progeny and the return of Mickael Barzalona to the saddle is a positive. The track was riding slower when he was here last time and that suits those handy and the first two were there throughout (my selection beaten a short-head for 2nd). He was 3 1/2l clear of 4th and I just think he'll improve again today and can spoil the party.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 6.45 Kempton - 2pts win Any Other Day @ 11/2 (PP) Quite an open handicap with unexposed horses in the line-up but William Knight's runner looks sure to revel in this longer trip and I think she has a very big chance for all she has a wide draw to overcome. She ran green on debut over a mile at Lingfield as she lost her place before plugging on again and improved plenty to go down by a length (not clear run) next time at Wolverhampton. That was behind two 70 horses and she shaped as if further would help. It was a similar story at Sandown last time as she stayed on to be beaten 4 3/4l by a horse who subsequently was narrowly beaten off 77 this afternoon. With 10f in her favour and a mark of 67 and the surface suiting, I think she'll go very well with the race looking sure to be run to suit.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.30 Pontefract - 2pts win Merchant Of Medici @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) There are a few pace angles in here and that will really suit Micky Hammond's runner as he loves to come off a fast pace. If they go off too hard in front I can see a closer picking them up in the latter stages as they climb the hill and I see no reason why it can't be this one. He ran two decent races off 5lbs higher on his first two starts of this campaign before running three times on less than ideal soft ground. He wasn't disgraced but he seems a happier animal on a sound surface. Since finding that ground again, he's run twice when the yard's horses weren't in flying form but his recent 2nd over 10f reads fairly well with the winner subsequently running very well in a hot York handicap off a higher mark. The stable are sending out horses who are running good races now and this race could be made for this runner off a fair mark.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.30 Pontefract - 1pt win Markington @ 11/1 (Skybet) When Peter Bowen sends his horses up north on the flat, they usually go well, with the trainer having a record of 6-19 at such venues in the last five years. That stat includes 2-6 at Pontefract and this is his only runner on the day. Although this 9yo hasn't shown as much of late, for Bowen or Anthony Honeyball (short spell recently), but drops in grade today and has conditions right for a return to form. He's a horse who usually finishes strongly and relishes a stiff finish - helped by the fact he has stamina in abundance. He's been campaigned in both codes of late but ran without the usual headgear on the last twice for the Honeyball yard. He did, however, run with promise two starts back in a tongue-tie and the combination of that equipment with the visor today for his first run back since rejoining the Bowen yard could see an improvement. He's won here twice and the combination of a better race (0-85) and a muddling gallop caught him out at Beverley last time. He returns to optimum conditions today in a 0-75 contest and is on a good mark if he bounces back into life. He's got his quick ground and Robert Winston (1-3 for yard) takes the ride. Hoping he's not just here for the fresh air.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.55 Newmarket - 1pt win Bernie The Bolt @ 11/1 (PP) I have a feeling that Andrew Balding's horse is going to run a cracker here in an attempt to win the race for the second time having been successful in 2009. His only other victory since then came off a mark 5lbs higher than this but he has had excuses on many of his runs of late. Ran plenty well enough on his seasonal return this year before possibly bouncing here next time in what proved to be an extremely hot race which has worked out very well. The combination of ground and distance seemed to catch him out at the Royal meeting before shaping okay back at Ascot last time when the race was run totally not to suit (nothing came from off pace - did best of those from rear). Steps back up to 2m2f here and to the course and distance he's won at previously and is off a nice mark. Ground is fine for him and all three of his wins have come in August/September so this could be his time of year also. Hopeful of a good effort.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.10 Newbury - 2pts win Blue Surf @ 7/1 (Bet365) I just wonder if Kirthill's York success suggests he will need that 1m4f trip again to score off his higher mark and I think the value comes in the shape of Amanda Perrett's 3-year-old. He is a progressive sort who I watched with interest in the hugely competitive 3yo handicap at Ascot a fortnight ago. I didn't have an investment in the race and I'm glad I didn't as it was a horrible affair with many hard-luck stories. One of which was this horse who appeared to be going well enough on the inside when suffering interference. His chance went and he finished in midfield. He returns to 1m2f today, for all I think he will stay 1m4f, and this is the distance over which he has registered his two career successes. His most recent of which was quite nice as he travelled very strongly at Goodwood before quickening away with the runner-up and edging on close home. The pair were clear and that 2nd has subsequently gone well. He shaped as if a more testing track wouldn't be an issue as he stretched at the finish and I don't think a 5lb climb in the weights is too much of an issue. I think the older horses may struggle to give the weight for age allowance to him and out of the younger horses I think he has the best chance. James Doyle a very good jockey on board.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.30 Newmarket - 3pts win Ibtahaj @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes) I could be wrong but I think Jacob Cats may not have much more scope off his current mark now and I'm much more interested in another 3yo here which is the Godolphin runner. I believe there is more to come off a mark of 96 and he hasn't done much more in his relatively short career to date. After putting in a promising debut run he bombed out on his return in 2012 on soft ground before chasing home a horse now rated in the 100s and then ran away with a poor maiden at Brighton and a handicap at Kempton. Easily won the latter off 85 (unchallenged) and on another day would have landed a hat-trick off 91 there next time out. However, he was slowly away and this led to him being restrained rather than going forward as per usual. He took a hold and was headed late on once committed. The winner won again off 6lbs higher next time and my selection is just 5lbs higher today and given lots went wrong for him I think he'll go extremely close this afternoon returned to a more positive ride from Dettori.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Not a good day for the thread despite me finding the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup. I thought Bernie The Bolt was coming to win the race - coming to challenge for 2nd going so well but didn't find as much as hoped. Touched 2.7 in running. Similarly Blue Surf travelled very well but didn't have the speed to compete with the fast finishers and he finished 3rd (touched 2.1 in running). Ibtahaj also finished 3rd and yup, touched 1.76 in running! How disappointing to have those three doing that and no return!

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.00 Leicester - 2pts win West End Lad @ 7/1 (Skybet) I have to say I find this price surprising in a race that doesn't have much substance to it in my eyes. The favourite is a 13-race maiden who has looked awkward at times and has yet to prove he's a miler so I don't fancy taking him on my side at 9/4. The ground is likely to catch a few of the others out and some have questions to answer about their wellbeing, and it could be said that my selection does too, but I think he'll put in a big run today. He's a fairly prolific winner and has come home in front twice over today's c&d. Testing ground is absolutely no problem for him and he's off a good mark. Although he hasn't been in great form of late he often pulls out big runs from seemingly nowhere and he's been dropped 5lbs for his latest run which came in a much better race here. That was a 0-90 affair and he drops into a 0-75 here so the fact this is much more his level gives me hope that his poor form figures of late can be reversed today in a depleted field containing horses I'm not so sure about. I think he'll be bang there.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.50 Kempton - 2pts win Shamir @ 6/1 (Bet365) The market is speaking volumes here with Dubawi Island very weak and the other horse I was interested in, Shamir, proving much stronger, and that makes him a hugely interesting contender in this race. A three-time course and distance winner (once off same mark, once off higher), Jo Crowley's runner hasn't been firing on all cylinders of late but ran well enough in a hotter race last time and that was only his second run of the year (needed comeback run prior to that). Dropping into a grade where he has a good record I think he'll go close today. He's only run three times on the all-weather since winning off 85 last year (runs off 83 today) with one of those seeing him hampered and losing his place and then the two (excused) runs this campaign. Back down in grade and off a decent mark I think he'll go plenty well enough with some likely pace in the race another positive.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Off the cold list with Shamir quickening up nicely down the straight to score at 13/2. West End Lad ran well to be 3rd (narrowly beaten for 2nd) and would have gone much closer if they went quicker. Just needed more of a test.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.10 Goodwood - 2pts win Ghost Protocol @ 7/1 (Boyles) David Simcock's runner drops in class here into a 0-85 and this should prove a fair bit easier than the races he's been contesting of late. His 8l 4th of 10 last time came in an affair where the first 3 were rated in the 90s and and he has to face nothing rated more than 76 today which I think makes his price quite sweet. The Stoute horse didn't beat much last time and can be sidestepped at the prices and I'd rather take the solid option down in grade than progressive types up, personally. He's proven downhill and on soft ground and his two runs prior to last time out were decent (close behind a horse who won again since two starts back). Yard going okay and he should be very competitive this afternoon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Ghost Protocol (well backed) makes it 2 on the bounce - and much needed! Fingers crossed for a couple more where they came from.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Won nicely Ben, great ride from Spencer again.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Yup. Looked for a run more towards the rail but didn't persist until his chance had gone. Horse picked up really well on the ground.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 8.20 Kempton - 1pt win Twice Bitten @ 20/1 (Bet365) I posted this before his run a few starts back:

8.20 Kempton - 2pts win Twice Bitten @ 12/1 (Bet365) James Toller's runner has to saddle 10 stone here but both of his career wins have come at Kempton and the return to polytrack should see a big improvement on his two runs this season to date. He's a considerably better horse on the all-weather and hasn't really shown much of a liking for the grass during his career so far, and especially on soft ground which he encountered last time out. Although he was well beaten, those who pushed the pace ended up well held so his losing margin would have been exaggerated by that as well as Camborne storming to victory by a wide margin. He was beaten 17 1/2l and 26l the two other times he faced ground with soft in the description, yet ran well on his next start both times to suggest that we shouldn't be overly concerned by his poor run at Doncaster. Two starts back - on his seasonal debut - he ran with credit on quicker ground at Sandown when staying on into 8th of 16 (usually up with pace) so that was a promising return to action and now he runs back at Kempton I think we'll see his best run for a while. He won off 3lbs lower by a length over c&d last summer and then ran pretty well in 5th (beaten less than 3l) next time out behind two horses (1st and 2nd) who have progressed to be considerably better than their mark on that occasion since). This is his first run on polytrack since and isn't impossibly handicapped with conditions in his favour. He's only been out of the frame once from 5 starts on the all-weather (that run when not beaten far in 5th) so he's yet to run badly on the artificial surface and hopefully that run won't come to an end this evening.

Unfortunately he was held up and needed to be closer to the pace to make an impact and it's been odd that he's continued to be ridden that way since as I'm sure he'd be better off if allowed to race more prominently. His two wins have come when he's raced in 2nd and 3rd respectively but he remains to be ridden to pass virtually the whole field to win. Since that okay run he was 2nd here over 2 miles before finishing 6 1/2l behind Refractor (last 1f out, finished 6th of 10). He's 5lbs better off with that rival today and has a good draw in stall 1. I just hope more use is made of him this evening with Liam Keniry back on board. He's off a fair mark and I just hope there's either a strong gallop for him to run at or he's ridden closer to give him the best possible chance.