Flat Racing Friday - Oaks Day

[beaker1]

4:05 Epsom – Investec Oaks (Gr1] The 1000 Guineas has been a reliable pointer to the Oaks over the past 20 or so years. In the 90s, Salsabil (1st), Balanchine (2nd), Moonshell (3rd), Reams of Verse (6th) and Shahtoush (2nd) all won the Oaks on the back of a run in the first fillies’ Classic of the season and more recently, Kazzia (1st) and Casual Look (6th) achieved the same feat. Since the brilliant Oh So Sharp won the fillies’ Triple Crown in 1985 only Salsabil and Kazzia have completed the 1000 Guineas/Oaks double but this year’s 1000 Guineas winner, Homecoming Queen, isn’t engaged tomorrow. However, Maybe, The Fugue and Nayarra, who finished 3rd, 4th and 9th respectively at Newmarket, all take their chance. Apart from the incredible Ouija Board, Newmarket’s Pretty Polly Stakes, which is run on the same card as the 1000 Guineas, hasn’t had any impact at all on the Oaks over the same time period. Ed Dunlop’s filly aside, the last ten Pretty Polly winners to have lined up at Epsom all flopped. The unbeaten Kailani produced an authoritative 7L victory in this year’s renewal but even so, the trends suggest that she still has plenty to prove. Despite being in its 61st year, the Cheshire Oaks has still only managed to produce two previous Oaks winners. Lupe became the first filly to record the double way back in 1970 before Light Shift followed suit in 2007 and so on this evidence Betterbetterbetter, who suffered a short-head defeat at Chester, has a pretty big negative to overcome. In the early 90s both User Friendly and Lady Carla won the Lingfield Oaks Trial before doubling up at Epsom, with Ramruma achieving the same double in 1999. The 2008 Lingfield winner Miracle Seeker failed to recreate her form in the Oaks but the runner-up, Look Here, more than made amends as she sprouted wings under Seb Sanders and the 2009 winner, Midday, only lost out by a head to Sariska. The race has a strong representation this year as Vow and Colima, who finished 1st & 2nd at Lingfield, both line up. Sariska overturned a massive negative when winning the Oaks in 2009 as prior to her victory the previous eight Musidora winners to have run in the Oaks had all been beaten – Reams Of Verse the previous filly to do the double back in 1997 and of course Diminuendo and Snow Bride prior to that. However, the majority had run well in defeat with Zahrat Dubai, Kalypso Katie, Punctilious and Short Skirt all filling the minor placings and so The Fugue, who ran out an eye-catching winner from Twirl, has to be one for the shortlist. Newbury’s, Swettenham Stud Fillies’ Trial had very little influence on the outcome of the Oaks until Dancing Rain improved on her second placed finish at Newbury to win last season’s Oaks. Prior to that, the late Michael Jarvis’ Eswarah completed the double in 2005 and before that Circus Plume in 1984. So it will be interesting to see how Shirocco Star, who was runner-up in this year’s race, fares tomorrow. The Height Of Fashion Stakes, formerly known as the Lupe Stakes, has proved a respectable trial down the years. Snow Fairy completed the double in 2010 and around the turn of the century Love Devine achieved the same feat. Additionally, both Something Exciting and Rising Cross went agonizingly close in the Oaks following victory at Goodwood. Coquet earned a narrow victory in this year’s contest with Nayarra well held in 4th. There are plenty of trainers, such as Sir Henry Cecil and Ed Dunlop, with solid records in the Oaks but unfortunately none of them are represented this year. Of those with runners today, Aidan O’Brien sets the standard having won the race twice over the past decade with Imagine and Alexandrova but he is often well represented, as is the case this year, with Betterbetterbetter, Devotion, Kissed, Maybe, Twirl and Was all representing the master of Ballydoyle. William Haggas maintains a 100% success rate in the Oaks after his first ever runner in the race, Dancing Rain, landed the prize last season. Nine of the last ten Oaks winners had achieved a top-two finish on their most recent start; seven of which had been last time out winners. This is a pretty damning statistic whichever way you look at it and therefore Nayarra, Toptempo and Was would all appear to have something to prove. However, it might be worth cutting Maybe some slack as Casual Look, who won the Oaks in 2003, ran well in defeat in the 1000 Guineas as did O’Brien’s filly. Eight of the last 13 Oaks winners came from a single-figure draw, so extra emphasis must surely be placed on those drawn in the low numbers tomorrow. However, it is not the be-all-and-end-all as fillies are capable of winning from a high number as witnessed by Snow Fairy in 2010 when she won from the widest draw of all in stall 15. The Oaks is capable of throwing up the odd shock result; none more so than Dancing Rain last season and Look Here three years earlier. However, overall the consensus is to side with a more fancied runner as the remaining eight winners all came from the first five in the betting, four of which were the favourite or joint favourite. At the time of writing Maybe and The Fugue are battling it out for favouritism at around the 3-1 mark followed by Vow and Kissed both on 6-1 and Kailani at 9-1. Shortlist The Fugue Vow Maybe Conclusion I have always been a firm advocate of believing what you see with your very own eyes and without doubt John Gosden’s THE FUGUE was the most impressive of all of the trial winners this season. I am slightly concerned that the form of the race wasn’t particularly strong as Twirl did seem to fold pretty tamely but even so Buick got to the front hard on the steel before asserting without really asking a lot of his filly. In fact, he was patting her down the next before he crossed the line; always a sign that a jockey knows that he has plenty left in the tank. This is without doubt a much tougher proposition as you can expect all of these fillies to improve on what they have shown so far but for me, she looks the most exciting. Whether William Haggas can win back-to-back Oaks is the big question but Vow was another that impressed in her trial at Lingfield. Given that it was only her second start she looked thoroughly professional as she dispensed with Colima. Her pedigree is packed with stamina on both sides but she did look to have a turn of foot at Lingfield and she does look a major player tomorrow. Homecoming Queen really let the 1000 Guineas form down on Sunday when she was well beaten in the Irish equivalent but I think anyone who knows anything about racing thought that the Newmarket form was suspect to say the least. That’s why Maybe is coming in for plenty of support. Clearly, she showed last season that she has the class to be effective at the highest level but as yet she is untried over further than a mile and although she is by Galileo out of a Danehill mare, there still has to be that element of doubt about her ability to get the trip. If she does, she looks to have a major chance.

[Trotter]

Flat Racing Friday - Oaks Day

Epsom 4.50 - Producer - win at 5/1 bog Ladbrokes I've been having a bit of a break but as it's a new month I'll ty and get going again - get back in the saddle before I get too lazy..........:loon Producer has 100% record over this CD, 3 runs and 3 wins He's not the highest rated in the Listed race but his course form must count for a few pounds as it's an idiosyncratic track and he's the only course winner in the field Already had a run in the Fielden Stakes at the Craven meeting finishing a creditable 3rd over 9 furlongs and should be suited by the drop back in trip Just get the feeling that the Hannon-Hughes juggernaut is about to get into gear after Hughes's ban and the unseasonal weather has seen them off to a skow start (for them !)