Flat Racing; Monday 28th May

[Lars]

Keeping this one brief as I have an exam in the afternoon. KUANYAO (19:10) hasn’t won since 2010 when he racked up a six-timer over a period of 11 months. That of course led to his rating shooting up to a career high of 93 at the beginning of the 2011 season. He wasn’t seen to best effect last year but did show some glimpses of promise on occasions, and was often not knocked about or raced out of his favoured position. He’ll be all the better for his seasonal reappearance and back down to 1lb lower than his last winning mark, he could well cause a surprise here. He’s equally effective over either 6f-7f and preferably he likes to lead, although his last victory came when unable to dominate, so it’s not paramount to his chances. That being said, his efforts in 2011 were mainly poor ones, often due to the fact he was hardly ever asked to front-run and the one occasion in which he was able to, he ran the best race of his season, only headed in the last 100 yards and still looking a threat from his revised handicap mark. Two poor efforts followed but he raced in midfield in both of them and in the latter, he was hampered when asked to make his challenge and wasn’t persevered with. That similar comment can be attributed to his seasonal reappearance in a much more competitive race than this. Kuanyao was able to race towards the front, but he looked in need of the outing and Chris Catlin’s lack of effort in the saddle indicated that they were expecting this one to improve for the run. Peter Makin has subsequently had a sprint handicapper winner, getting him off the cold-list alongside a placed effort in a maiden race, so the stable could well be running into some form. Albeit drawn possibly poorly in stall 13 today, I’m expecting much better. Firstly, he’s 3lb lower than that reappearance effort, a run he’ll have probably needed. The booking of Tom Queally is a positive for the yard, having a record of 4/20 and conditions today won’t be a problem, as the selection is more than capable of handling quick ground over 6f. If he’s allowed to stride on, then it could well be he’s difficult to peg back off an extremely workable rating of 83. This is a race he’d need to win to take up entries in bigger handicaps later in the year and although the presence of West Coast Dream in stall 15 could mean they cut each other’s throats in front, a 33/1 shot is hardly going to be bombproof and he’s well worth taking a chance on. He should be closer to the 12’s mark in my book and worthy of a standard sized bet. Bets 19:10 Windsor – Kuanyao; 2pts @ 33/1 Bet365, BetVictor, (bog)

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May 6.20 Carlisle SILLY GILLY 3pts to win @ 20/1 bog (Paddy Power) Class 5 handicap over 1m that opens today's card at Carlisle. Silly Gilly ran a lot of good races last year and eventually won over today's C&D in August off a 3lb lower mark. Ran well fresh more than once and especially last here (second and second again over C&D in this corresponding race on her second race of the year). Should go well at a very big price in a very open race with only another runner that was able to win over C&D (Desert Hunter who won in 2009).