Using a Poisson Table to Calculate Asian Handicap Prices In Increments of 0.25

[robotzel78]

Hello ! I intend to use another system, Poisson, beside my Elo ratings. I do it because i want to generate under over picks, and with elo i can not. In this moment, i can estimate percentage only for Under 2.5 and Over 2.5. How can i estimate the percentage for Under Over 2.75, 3, or 2.25 ? So, we have this game: Vallerenga - Sarpsborg, with these odds: Over /Under 2.75: 1.84 2.06 Over/Under 2.5: 1.47 2.45 The Average Goals is: Vallerenga 2.43 Sarpsborg 1.09. These give me the total goals for this game at 3.52. Now, Poisson estimate me for Fair % for Over/Under 2.5 at 47% for Over 2.5 and 53% for Under 2.5. So, i have Value for Under 2.5 But, how can i calculate the Fair% for Over/ Under 2.75, or for Over/Under 3 ??? This is my question, about Poisson for Asian Over Under Lines ... Thanks in advance for you answer.

[froment]

Re: Using a Poisson Table to Calculate Asian Handicap Prices In Increments of 0.25

The Average Goals is: Vallerenga 2.43 Sarpsborg 1.09. These give me the total goals for this game at 3.52. Now, Poisson estimate me for Fair % for Over/Under 2.5 at 47% for Over 2.5 and 53% for Under 2.5. So, i have Value for Under 2.5

First of all, I think you got this wrong; Poisson gives you 47% for Over 3.5, not Over 2.5; and 53% for Under 3.5, not Under 2.5. From Excel's help on Poisson funcction: Synthax: POISSON(x,mean,cumulative) X is the number of events. Mean is the expected numeric value. Cumulative is a logical value that determines the form of the probability distribution returned. If cumulative is TRUE, POISSON returns the cumulative Poisson probability that the number of random events occurring will be between zero and x inclusive; if FALSE, it returns the Poisson probability mass function that the number of events occurring will be exactly x. So, to get probability for Under 2.5 goals (which means, 0 to 2 goals, 2 inclusive) in your case, you need to type =POISSON(2;3.52;TRUE) And that gives probability of 31.72%, which corresponds to odds of 3.15; accordingly, probability of Over 2.5 is 68.28, and odds 1.46. Therefore, you have no value in odds on Under 2.5 at all (fair odds 3.15, available odds 2.45), and very, very slight, negligible value on Over 2.5 (fair odds 1.46, available odds 1.47). Now, to calculate those AH and quarter-ball odds, I use method described here: http://www.articlesbase.com/soccer-articles/how-to-calculate-asian-handicap-odds-1884025.html First you need to calculate odds on Over/Under 3 goals, and then Over/Under 2.75 goals. Applying again Poisson function for expected 3.52 goals, you get: Probability of Under 2.5 goals: 31.72% Probability of exactly 3 goals: 21.52% Probability of Over 3.5 goals: 46.77% These probabilities add up to 100.01%. Now, using formulas from above method: Odds, Under 3 = 1 / (31.72 / (31.72 + 46.77) ) = 2.47 Odds, Over 3 = 1 / (1 - (1 / 2.47) ) = 1.68 Odds, Under 2.75 = 1 / ( 31.72 / (31.72 + .5*21.52 + 46.77) ) = 2.81 Odds, Over 2.75 = 1 / (1 - (1 / 2.81) ) = 1.55 So, with expected 3.52 goals, you have these sets of fair odds: Under 2.5: 3.15 Over 2.5: 1.46 Under 2.75: 2.81 Over 2.75: 1.55 Under 3: 2.47 Over 3: 1.68 Looks like over 2.75 offers good value in this case, although you should be careful with Poisson's estimation - I was delighted when I first discovered it, but later on, I found many articles claiming that Poisson is not really applicable to football matches; the main reason is that Poisson assumes independent events, while goals in football match are not really independent. Now, I have a question for you; have you asked for approval of your signature? As you can see, members are allowed to have a link in their signature, but approval must be obtained from Paul Ross, and requirements are not difficult to meet. I wouldn't say you acquired one, so would you PM him or send mail to [email protected], please. That will allow you use of code in your signature, not only text link. Otherwise, you run the risk of your signature being removed! :ok

[Jordan Kentucky]

Re: Using a Poisson Table to Calculate Asian Handicap Prices In Increments of 0.25

First of all, I think you got this wrong; Poisson gives you 47% for Over 3.5, not Over 2.5; and 53% for Under 3.5, not Under 2.5. From Excel's help on Poisson funcction: Synthax: POISSON(x,mean,cumulative) X is the number of events. Mean is the expected numeric value. Cumulative is a logical value that determines the form of the probability distribution returned. If cumulative is TRUE, POISSON returns the cumulative Poisson probability that the number of random events occurring will be between zero and x inclusive; if FALSE, it returns the Poisson probability mass function that the number of events occurring will be exactly x. So, to get probability for Under 2.5 goals (which means, 0 to 2 goals, 2 inclusive) in your case, you need to type =POISSON(2;3.52;TRUE) And that gives probability of 31.72%, which corresponds to odds of 3.15; accordingly, probability of Over 2.5 is 68.28, and odds 1.46. Therefore, you have no value in odds on Under 2.5 at all (fair odds 3.15, available odds 2.45), and very, very slight, negligible value on Over 2.5 (fair odds 1.46, available odds 1.47). Now, to calculate those AH and quarter-ball odds, I use method described here: http://www.articlesbase.com/soccer-articles/how-to-calculate-asian-handicap-odds-1884025.html First you need to calculate odds on Over/Under 3 goals, and then Over/Under 2.75 goals. Applying again Poisson function for expected 3.52 goals, you get: Probability of Under 2.5 goals: 31.72% Probability of exactly 3 goals: 21.52% Probability of Over 3.5 goals: 46.77% These probabilities add up to 100.01%. Now, using formulas from above method: Odds, Under 3 = 1 / (31.72 / (31.72 + 46.77) ) = 2.47 Odds, Over 3 = 1 / (1 - (1 / 2.47) ) = 1.68 Odds, Under 2.75 = 1 / ( 31.72 / (31.72 + .5*21.52 + 46.77) ) = 2.81 Odds, Over 2.75 = 1 / (1 - (1 / 2.81) ) = 1.55 So, with expected 3.52 goals, you have these sets of fair odds: Under 2.5: 3.15 Over 2.5: 1.46 Under 2.75: 2.81 Over 2.75: 1.55 Under 3: 2.47 Over 3: 1.68 Looks like over 2.75 offers good value in this case, although you should be careful with Poisson's estimation - I was delighted when I first discovered it, but later on, I found many articles claiming that Poisson is not really applicable to football matches; the main reason is that Poisson assumes independent events, while goals in football match are not really independent. Now, I have a question for you; have you asked for approval of your signature? As you can see, members are allowed to have a link in their signature, but approval must be obtained from Paul Ross, and requirements are not difficult to meet. I wouldn't say you acquired one, so would you PM him or send mail to [email protected], please. That will allow you use of code in your signature, not only text link. Otherwise, you run the risk of your signature being removed! :ok

It would amaze me if you could have profit in the long term from this.