Flat Racing May 19th

[cpo]

1.40 Newmarket Amazing Amoray 1.5pts EW @ 9/1 Ladbrokes David Barron hasn’t been in the best of form lately but he had a very nice winner the other day with Pearl Secret and Magical Macey ran well at York. I quite like this horse and think he has a cracking chance here. He won a maiden at Leicester last year quite impressively on good to firm ground and followed that with an OK performance at Redcar in a good little class 3 handicap. He raced off 82 that day and comes here off a mark of 76. On his last 2 starts of last season he raced on good to soft ground, which I don’t think, suits. He is by Tagula who never raced on soft ground, which is why I think quicker ground will suit him more. He gets quick ground in this race and Ryan Moore takes the ride, which has to be seen as a positive. He ran well for a long way on his reappearance at Doncaster but weakened in the final furlong. He should strip much fitter here. 3.05 Newbury Almuftarris EW 1.5pts 10/1 Bet365 Almuftarris was unlucky last season as he ran in two hot looking maidens. On his first start he started slowly and was doing his best work at the finish when finishing 5^th over 7f at Newmarket in a race won by the Richard Hannon trained Rougemont. He was then sent off a short priced favourite at Yarmouth where he looked the likely winner for most of the race until Main Sequence burst through to win near the line. That horse is still unbeaten and is now one of the more fancied runners for the Derby. Going by pedigree it was no surprise to see Almuftarris stepped up in trip on his first start this season and he finally got off the mark doing well to battle back against Commend at Lingfield. I would hope that Almuftarris would come on for that run and he should strip even fitter here. The Ed Dunlop yard are in good form now and this horse could be well handicapped off 84 if you take his form with Main Sequence at face value. Jim Crowley takes the ride, which is a plus as he is in cracking form at the moment. 3.55 Newmarket Bernie the Bolt 1pt EW @ 12/1 Bet365 This horse has been very lightly raced over the last couple of years due to injury but he made an encouraging reappearance two weeks ago. He looked a stayer to follow when bolting up in a Cesarewitch trial back in 2009 but has only had 6 runs since then. He managed to win in 2010 off a 1lb lower mark but has only 3 runs since then. He returned to action at Newmarket over an inadequate 12f but he stayed on well in the closing stages to suggest he can still make his mark over staying trips. This 14f may still be shorter than ideal for him but there are a few in here that like to front run so it could turn into a proper test which would suit my selection. If getting back to anything like his best then Bernie the Bolt would have a good chance here of at least making the frame. In that 2010 season, this horse was near the top of the market for all of the staying races. Andrew Balding has persevered with him so I am hoping the stable feel they can get him back to something like his best.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat Racing May 19th Newbury 230 - Bertiewhittle 9/1 1pt Win Bet365 Was very unlucky not to finish a lot closer last time after getting severly hampered when he looked like he was going to run well. He has run some decent times in the past and with his well being confirmed last time, he could have some progression still left in him and I am willing to have a small stakes bet on him. 305 - Rewarded 8/1 2pt Win Bet365 Ticks all my boxes, good TS & RPR rating, conditions to suit and also a value price. I think the favourite is over rated (as Paddy Power also seem to as they have got the money back special on him) and while there are a few dangers (especially Expenses Claim who I may have a saver on), I would disappointed if the selection was right up there. Newmarket 215 - Rugged Cross 6/1 2pt Win Bet365 I was very surprised to see such decent odds for this horse considering it ran to a very good TS LTO of which the form also looks very solid. Obviously it wont be an easy race to win but in my eyes he has as much of a chance as the market principals. My main worry is regards to how fit he is for this race in comparison to the majority who have had a run but 6/1 compensates for that. 245 - Mince 6/1 2pt Win Bet365 & Heraaft 9/1 2pt Win Bet365 In a pattern that is probably becoming quite similar with my flat bets, I believe these two have the best recent TS ratings in the race & the conditions look ideal for them both, especially at a course they have both done well at. I have Mince slightly ahead but according to ATR, the draw is better for Heraaft. This is quite a competitive race and other I like the look of our Pea Shooter who I think will probably need the run, Kimbali who I dont think will like the ground & Dark Castle who could be thrown in here based on the TS of 89 he acquired at Kempton but I doubt he will transfer that to the turf, especially with his sire having a better strike rate on the sand. 320 - The Nile 9/4-2/1 now but was 11/4 earlier with Ladbrokes The form looks good for this horse, and while I would normally sit this out because I think there are a few with promise, the yard sound condfident and the fact the price has shortened so much already confirms this. 540 - Zaina 8/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes I looked at this horse when it was intended to run at the Guineas meeting, and marked it as one to look out for on better ground in a similar sort of race. She gets that here and 8/1 looked very big for a horse that has some decent form, and has ran the quickest (and most reliable) TS out of all of these. This trip should suit well and im expecting a good show, even though there could again be some decent opposition.