Tuesday 15th May - Jumps Racing

[Blazing Bailey]

Looks to be a few decent cards for tomorrow and with the ground finally drying out a little I will have a plunge into a couple of races, albeit only one for now. Showers are forecast though, but hopefully it wont alter the going too much. Hereford 420 - Chapel House - 3/1 1pt Win Paddy Power. This is probably a bit of an obvious choice but looking at his previous races I think he still probably has a few pounds in hand and providing he jumps as well as he did LTO then he should take some beating. After that race the trainer did say his improvement in jumping was down to the slight ease in the ground, so a little rain wouldnt hurt this one's chances. My main worry is that he may be taken on up front. Try Catch Me is currently 2nd Fav at 9/2 but I think his previous wins at Fontwell make him look better than he is and having not beaten much I am happy to pass. Ramses De Marcigny & Moriento have both been off the track for a while, and while the former should be respected because of his connections (Nicholls) and the latter because he has a couple of bits of interesting form, I will give them a watching brief for the time being. Similar comments apply to Rob Conti, although he is race fit, it is his chase debut and I will wait to see if he can jump the big obstacles first before making an opinion on him. TyUp Pompey looks hopelessly out of form BUT this appears to be his time of year and he does have course form. I wont be touching him but it wouldnt surprise me if a few have a gamble and he leaves his previous form behind. Getaway Driver looks held by my selection and seems to have bucket loads of temprement, so thats a definite no for me. Brinham Boy has been running consistently but against a lot worse horses than he faces today. Unwanted Gift is not without hope at the foot of the weights, and while the form of his win LTO is fairly weak, he does have a couple of bits of form from earlier in the year which suggest he isnt out of this. Might be worth a saver.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Tuesday 15th May - Jumps Racing Hereford 450 - Jomade 12/1 1pt EW Bet365 & Daarth 7/1 1pt Win Bet365 This looks a quite competitve race with a few that have a decent chance although firstly I will go through the ones I dont think will win. Little Eaglet, Rio Alto, Minella Bliss & The Hudnalls all look out of form & Monty's Revenge has something to prove given his last 2 runs. Jomade looks slightly over rated based on his previous win as the form doesnt look very strong, although there are bits and pieces from further back suggesting that defying 97 is possible. The conditions should suit if the rain stays away and the current price of 12/1 is fairly generous. Earcomesthedream is currently the favourite, and a worthy one at that if the form of his last run is confirmed here. However I suspect he may prefer softer ground than is likely here even if his trainer suggested after his last win that dryer conditions will bring more improvement. I certainly wouldnt go against this one but 5/2 is too short IMO. Lyrical Chant ran a good 2nd LTO and while I dont think the winner of that race is as good as his mark suggests, I still think there is room for manoeuvre with this mare but again 11/4 at the moment doesnt look like value. Daarth is a very intriguing runner. Firstly he is a 19 race maiden in all codes which means I would normally steer well clear, and probably should again here BUT his previous run when 3rd looks very solid form with the 2nd winning NTO and the winner going onto win 2 more times and place on 2 other occasions. That is by far the best form in this race IMO and the slightly longer trip should also suit. Flag Flier is another with a chance (albeit a small one) from out of the weights. She was disappointing LTO but had previously had 2 decent runs suggesting that this mark wasnt beyond her. I think she does have a few questions to answer for the time being having tailed off last time.