Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May

[Stevet1859]

3:10 Newmarket: Hermival 1pt e/w 25/1 Paddy Power (1/4 123) A disappointment and a four point loss that Dragon Pulse does not come over from France, however Mikel Delzangles is a trainer who strikes as someone who knows what he is doing and he relies on Hermival here. Hermival has only seen the racecourse twice, winning a maiden last backend over a mile, before putting up a very encouraging performance at Maisons-laffitte when not far behind French Fifteen and Abtaal. French Fifteen who lines up too, is already very smart having previously won a Listed race and then a Group One at Saint-cloud. Abtaal has been almost as impressive with a Group win to his name. For those that have run the Prix Djebel has probably been the best trial, so for Hermival to run third on only his second start is a fine effort. Having watched the replay he is held up out the back and then comes wide before coming through to be a clear third showing promise without being given an overly hard race. Hermival handles the softer conditions and he is by Dubawi an Irish 2000 Guineas winner and sire of Makfi who won this race for Mikel Delzangles. Every chance that Hermival could improve further. 3:45 Newmarket: Stepper Point 2pts win 20/1 Ladbrokes & Caledonia Lady 1pt win 18/1 Stan James With three year olds having a good record in this race, and with only two of them running, having an interest in both looks a good angle. Stepper Point in particular looks overpriced. As last seson progressed so did Stepper Point getting better and better and finishing off with a comfortable Listed race win at Longchamp on good to soft. When interviewed post race William Muir felt the penny had dropped with Stepper Point and his older horses could not go with him. The ground certainly won't be a problem as Stepper Point takes on his elders for the first time, and if he is ready to go, he could go close. Caledonia Lady probably ran her best race of last season on a softer surface when winning a Listed race at Ayr from Hexagonal. She ran pretty well at Bath last month, and while she will need to step up on that, there is every chance she might and that race proved Caledonia Lady has trained on. Joe Fanning does well (albeit from a small sample) when he rides for the yard.

[dannn17]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 2.00 Newmarket, Memory Cloth at 6/1 (William Hill) Not the biggest fan of handicaps but this Horse runs from a nice mark in this race and will relish the soft ground. Won over a mile on soft ground at Ripon so will need to stay the extra furlong here but I’m 90% sure it will. Fury the current favourite is a talented Horse but I’m unsure whether it will stay or not and the mark its running off puts me off it big time. 2.30 Newmarket, Dunaden at 11/2 (William Hill) Interesting race really, the favourite Meandre came 6th in the Arc last season and if producing that form again should win this race but I can't see it improving on that performance and their will be question marks over whether it can produce that form here on the softer ground. Dunaden is a high class proven stayer over this distance and the ground should be fine, the odds I think are generous here.

[Bruce_Savage]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May GOODWOOD 95 Polygon 94 Shimmering Surf 94 Crem Anglaise 91 Quschi 90 Vita Nova 89 Western Pearl 88 Tameen 78 Bolivia 78 Twin Soul 93 Steps 92 Lui Rei 92 Judge ´n Jury 92 Taurus Twins 91 Rowe Park 89 Tagula Night 17 88 Sugar Beet 85 Desert Phantom 96 Woolfall Treasure 87 Saint Helena 87 Spice Fair 87 Four Nations 80 No Hetric 80 Very Good Day 79 Lifetime 75 Taikoo 96 Neutrafa 91 Esentepe 88 Barefoot Lady 88 Winter´s Night 82 Theladyinquestion 81 Raasekha NA Boastful NEWMARKET 97 Albaqaa 96 Fury 96 Mia´s Boy 96 Licence To Till 96 Spanish Duke 95 Circumvent 94 Fattsota 94 Memory Cloth 93 Proponent 93 Pleasant Day 92 Graphic 90 Tullius 89 Askaud 88 Dick Doughtywylie 81 Las Verglas Star 67 Danadana Dunaden 102 Meandre 100 Masked Marvel 96 Blue Bajan 90 Al Kazaeem 88 Quest For Peace 84 Fiorente 82 Sadeek's Song 100 Power 99 French Fifteen 98 Abtaal 96 Hermival 96 Born To Sea 91 Coupe De Ville 90 Top Offer 89 Red Duke 89 Talwar 89 Trumpet Major 88 Caspar Netscher 87 Boomerang Bob 87 Bronterre 87 Ptolemaic 86 Fencing 85 Saigon 84 Camelot 82 Redact 103 Masamah 101 Definightly 99 Eton Rifles 98 Jonny Mudball 98 Caledonia Lady 97 Inxile 97 Astrophysical Jet 96 Foxy Music 96 Temple Meads 96 Stepper Point 95 Hamish McGonagal 95 Margot Did 95 Mayson 92 Night Carnation 91 Move In Time 88 Elusivity 84 Katla #DIV/0! Spirit Quartz 92 Es Que Love 90 Fulbright 87 Alejandro 85 Tioman Legend 85 Mince 84 I´ll Be Good4 83 Personal Touch 82 Muaamara 82 Gold Lace 81 Princess Of Orange 80 Ultrasonic 80 Democretes 80 Heartsong 80 Parc De Launay 79 Al Khan 79 Sans Loi 76 Right Result 72 Muarrab 71 Red Quartet 53 Mezzotint Hurry Up George 51 81 Hadaj 59 Mr Red Clubs 79 Ghost Protocol 80 Frog Hollow 75 Campanology 72 Archbishop 74 Elkhart 78 Ghostwriting 81 Rewarded 82 Devdas 81 Fourth Of June

Loaded up Pro Form to get a handle on the draw bias that might be in play at Newmarket today by selecting the filters for Newmarket > April/May > Good or Less > 12 or more runners I’ve found the stats significantly working towards these draws; 5F – High 6F – Low 8F – Middle/High 9F - Middle/High The 6f case is quite perplexing so I’m not sure what to make of it but looking at the results it’s defiantly prominently towards low runners with 2-3-4-1-8 figure in descending order from first being the most prominent IV. Anyway, on to the figures.

Two O'Clock Newmarket we have Askaud, Licence To Till, Dick Doughtywylie, Fattsota, Mia’s Boy & Spanish Duke reserving the high stalls. The effort of Mia’s Boy (96) in the Lincoln was hardly inspiring but has received a 4lb drop in the weights, although he may well be able to run a promising race you get the feeling the ground will beat him. The Scott Dixon contender Askaud (89) is plenty high enough in the weights despite a decent effort in the Lincoln. Interesting 4yo Gelding Fattsota (94) for Marco Botti who runs back on the turf after spins on the All Weather, finished a good 3rd to Art History at Pontefract on his British debut but it’s remained to be seen how efficient he is below 10 furlongs. Mark Johnston has managed to squeeze Licence To Till (96) off 84 who will likely try to make all, a reliable & consistent horse when he wants to be although I’m inclined to take 3pts of his rating as its been 6 races since he’s last run to within 7lb of his TS & would see him struggle here of (93). Dick Doughtywylie (88) has a lot to prove if he’s to win this race for connections, despite his low weight there are question marks over whether the nature of the race is going to suit such a backwards and lightly raced horse and may prove an exercise to harden him up. That leaves me with the lovely Spanish Duke (96) for John Dunlop who was last seen out in August when picking up an injury coming into the part of the season which would of seen him flourish. The horse has run well fresh at Epsom in a good time last year but seems to be stuck between the handicapping & group divide which is a dangerous, expensive & lonely place to be. The horse has failed to run within his TS & RPR for the last 4 races which takes off 2pts leaving him on a mark of (94) and still competitive today given that the break will be in his favour, the draw will suit with a pace to come off from Licence To Till, similar profile to Times Up who won here on 1000 Guineas day in impressive fashion last year, he will in enjoy the cut in the ground & the nature of the race. The best of the rest would include Memory Cloth (94) who put up a fantastic effort at Ripon last time out & you'd expect him to improve from that making him a live contender here. Two Fifteen Goodwood The Henry Cecil runner Vita Nova (90) is going to be a hot favourite amongst the punters & bookmakers a like today but I’m willing to take her on even though she’s run purely on class when it comes down to winning a horse race I’m not quite sure she’s up to it. What I’m trying to get at is she’s a showgirl who from her looks to the way she races epitomises class in abundance and quite rightly has the ability to travel through this race today on the snaff but I still don’t agree she’s carries the stopwatch component in her armoury which every top class has in case they are asked to do things the old fashioned way & was quite rightly put to bed in the Fillies & Mares by Dancing Rain when she was asked to exhibit these qualities. There are 4 horses for me who have the beating of her on the clock, Polygon (95), Shimmering Surf (94) Crem Anglaise (94) & Quschi (91). Starting with Shimmering Surf, I’m inclined to knock her down 4pts to (90) after failing to record anything near her TS & RPR but genuinely lacks any evidence for handling 12f in soft ground which could also be said for Qushchi out of William Jarvis yard despite finishing off her campaign last year on a high this looks a tough ask and no doubt will tell the yard a little bit more about her. The Michael Bell trained Crem Anglaise finished a good 4th behind Tenby Lady in a Handicap at York but has looked largely inconsistent & another who looks miles away from Vita Nova in the class department. The one that caught my eye was top rated Polygon (95) who is trained by last years winner of this race John Gosden when he sent the Oaks 4th Gertrude Bell to romp home here in impressive fashion before carrying her form from the race well. Lady Rothschild owned Polygon was straight into a Listed race after winning a Maiden & found herself in a sprint finish with Sea Of Heartbreak, Cill Railag & Mirror Lake who were the first three home and all sitting behind her at the two furlong pole with William Buick refusing to go hard on her once they had past her in a hand & heels ride +1 light tap inside the final furlong. When you consider her next run in France in the Prix Minerve she had a hard race when chasing a good solid pace & saw off her rivals with a decent turn of foot to only be caught for 3rd by a potential Group 1 exciting staying prospect in Pacifique & the winner Shareta was in a league of her own winning by 3l to go on and place 2nd in the Arc with John Gosden head groom quoting “"We're very happy the filly, Thierry said all she did was gallop, and she'll get further”. That run was followed up by a disappointing 10th out of 11 runners over 13f in France where she bounced after her hard race especially given Cill Railaig finished 3rd and was quite rightly put away by John Gosden for the new season. She has the potential to topple the odds on favourite here at Goodwood today. Two Fifty Goodwood This is the tightest race of the day for me by some way! With just 7pts separating top from bottom although I’d like to take on the favourite here who struggled from a wide draw at Goodwood last season but more importantly he’s such a fast horse that he needs his first run extremely bad & may result in him being a false priced favourite. The Italian horse Lui Rei looks troublesome with a helping hand from the handicapper needed if he’s to break his duck despite running well in softer conditions at Newbury but I’ve been impressed with the run of Taurus Twins (93) at Epsom last time out showing bright pace. This is his first run at Goodwood although I envisage him being a few points shorter because people will make the Epsom/Goodwood transition but that won’t stop me getting involved as I really do think he’s a good betting proposition.

[Bruce_Savage]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May The 2000 Guineas Newmarket The French horses have caught up with the public’s imagination with a lot of media attention around their participation aided with the overwhelming uncertainty over some of the runners added with ground concerns and high profile non runners you’d assume anything half decent could win the race. The horse I like though is Aidan’s Power (100) who has sort of slipped under the radar with the hype of Camelot and may actually be used as a legitimate target out in front for the much hyped son of Montjeu to pick off late although I wouldn’t play down power as just that, he’s a Group 1 winner that’s big, sturdy with plenty of pace that likes to be made use off and most importantly he’s exceptionally tough which counts undeniably as one of the most important factors in a racehorse at this level and at the prices he’s the horse to be with and holds least concerns about the conditions today but the French contenders could easily be a class above on the day. Three Fourty Five Newmarket The 5f Palace House is always a lovely affair to get yourself stuck into, I’ve just completed some adjustments on the ratings and there isn’t much change to be truth but my focus of attention is going to be the low drawn horses. I’m contemplating backing Foxy Music (96) who has the rail in an attempt to make all the running! he’s going to be a perfect tool to poach inside the final furlong for the likes of Johnny Mudball (96) & Caledonia Lady (98) who are my two more definite selections in the race.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Newmarket 4:55 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Noble Mission [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 2/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 05/05/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 2.88 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Failed to win on debut last year but improved well over the winter and the one to beat here. He was restricted to one run as a juvenile due to sore shins and immaturity in which he finished second; Raced on stands' rail, held up towards rear, switched left to join main group and headway over 2f out, ridden and outpaced by winner over 1f out, switched left inside final furlong and kept on to go 2nd towards finish, no chance with winner. That was plenty to do on debut. Last time out went more smoothly by 3 3/4 lengths to break his maiden. Frankel is his big brother so there is plenty of room for improvement plus he's been talked about into a Derby contender. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Lars]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May SILENCEOFTHEWIND (15:20) shaped better than the bare form suggests a week ago at Ripon and down in grade, down in trip, down 3lbs in the handicap with a capable 3lb claimer on board he should go really well although it may well be that we have to wait a start or two to really see the best of this horse, I just think he’s worth chancing today at a decent price. A highly-tried juvenile, he’s been fairly lightly-raced for a five year old and has obviously had some problems. He did show some very respectable handicap form last season, notably when 2^nd over this C&D last August off a 1lb higher mark. That was on heavy ground and he travelled supremely well, looking like the winner some way out but he just got collared late on. It proved that he goes well on any surface and he backed that effort up with a fair performance over a mile, just shaping that 7f is his ideal trip. He had no luck on his last start in 2011 and his two efforts this term haven’t looked the most encouraging. Entitled to come on for his first start, the second last week, when beaten 12 lengths, is more encouraging than at first glance. Firstly, he pulled too hard in the early stages of the race over a mile, but still held every chance around 2f from home. It’s fair to say he was given considerate handling on the run-in, but perhaps it was because there wasn’t the greatest amount of room. He didn’t have a hard race though and was eased up when his chance was gone, probably adding another 5 lengths to the margin of his defeat. I’m expecting better from him in due course, and today looks a fair opportunity for him. He’s back to his best distance in 7f at a track he goes well at, has the assistance of a 3lb claimer who has struck up a good relationship with this stable (2/13, plenty gone close) and looks attractively handicapped off this rating. It may be that we have to wait for another drop in grade to see the best of Silenceofthewind but he looks too big a price to overlook today, with plenty to suit and a yard who continue to go well. -- AL KHAN (16:20) participates in a horrendously competitive handicap but still looks on a fair mark and should well be up to improving this season, especially as his performances over 7f were encouraging but showed definite signals that he was an out and out sprinter. The drop back in trip will suit and he’s given the impression that he handles softer ground, so rates as a bet in a tough race. Three times raced, he won well on fast ground on debut over this distance, travelling well and staying on strongly in a race that worked out OK. He looked a decent prospect and was pitched into a Group 3 at York. He looked a big threat as he travelled powerfully, trading at 2.20 but he just didn’t seem to stay the extra furlong and faded in the closing stages. This was a similar effort to the one he posted in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. Again, he travelled well in rear before making what looked like a strong challenge, this time trading at 3.00 before fading yet again in the closing stages. It just seems that as a juvenile, the 7f was just too far for him, and he looks an ideal candidate to drop back to sprinting. His fitness will have to be taken on trust but he looks the type to improve as a three year old (related to high-class performers who got better with age) and this one still looks ahead of his mark, especially as he was competitive for a long while in races against the likes of Trumpet Major and Caledonian Spring, who have gone on to be capable performers. I think a mark within the 100’s is a fair target for Al Khan and it all depends on whether Peter Chapple-Hyam has got him ready first time up, it’s a big prize though and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big run. He travels well on soft ground so today’s conditions shouldn’t be any bother and a price around the 7/1 mark would be fair, so he’s well worth investing in. It’s a hugely competitive handicap and only worthy of a small investment, but he repay us at some point during 2012, hopefully today. -- WANNABE KING (16:30) is on such a good mark now and he’ll no doubt be picking up a decent handicap prize at some point, and today’s race looks an ideal opportunity given he shaped as if retaining his ability when running over the wrong trip under the wrong conditions on seasonal reappearance. Geoffrey Harker is easily capable of landing this sort of prize and he should run well, as long as no further rain hits Thirsk. A winner off a mark of 95 at around this time last season in a competitive race at Sandown over this mile distance, he didn’t have the greatest amount of luck subsequently but didn’t shape badly off a rating of 97 at Ascot and Ripon, showing that there was still plenty of ability still in the locker. His form nosedived towards the end of the season but he’s never ran well from September onwards and he’s always seemed to be a little on the fragile side, so it may be best just to overlook his late season efforts. He since joined current connections and his reappearance effort was actually really encouraging. It came over 1m2f (a distance too far) and on really soft ground (which he hates) and with a first-time visor, he looked for a short time that he might seriously trouble the principles. He just got tired late on but it was a far from disgraceful effort in a race that connections wouldn’t have been too keen to win, as it would have likely destroyed his workable handicap rating. That mark has now dropped to one of 90 which is obviously one he’s more than capable of winning from. This is his time of the year, looks to be in decent enough form and gets his ideal trip today of a mile. Big-fields are no bother to him and my only slight concerns would be to the softer ground, albeit Thirsk seems to be drying all the time, and the fact that the Visor may not work as well again second time round. Those risks are factored into his current price though, and it’s one that is well worth taking. Even with Farrhh involved in the race, who could be a Group horse in a handicap, Wannabe King should be no bigger than the 10/1 mark, and ranks as a fair bet here today. He’s bound to go well if the ground dries up and his last run looked like a tune-up for this sort of valuable, early-season handicap. -- THE NIFTY FOX (18:05) hasn’t won since October 2009, which probably isn’t the best place to start my reasoning for why I think he’s overpriced, but he recently hasn’t been racing on tracks that ideally suit him, and he’s subsequently come down in the ratings. A sharper track is his preference and he gets that today, and with ground not an issue and running off a mark he hasn’t been seen off since 2006, he could potentially go extremely well. Prior to his seasonal reappearance eight days ago, he’d only been beaten by a maximum of 5.25 lengths on his previous five starts and he’s hardly been beaten out of sight, merely, he just looked a little too high in the weights. Certainly, running him on the wrong sort of track generally wouldn’t have helped him either. He does best on a sharp circuit, as 4/7 wins have come from Catterick or Musselburgh. Those recent runs have come from places such as Hamilton (which to be fair, he has won at but I don’t really think it suits ideally), Carlisle and Pontefract and those places have a stiff finish. Thirsk should suit much better and his last visit over this C&D came at this time last year, running a big race off an 11lbs higher mark. It may just be that The Nifty Fox is just a perennial loser and no matter how far you’ll drop him in the weights, he’ll always finish about 3 or 4 lengths behind the winner, but he’s fallen to such a tempting mark over conditions that will suit which means he’s a bet today. He’ll be much sharper for a reappearance effort at Doncaster when not really given a hard time and at prices around the 20/1 mark, he’s definitely worth chancing that he can get his head in front, as this isn’t really that strong considering there’s a big-field on show today. Bets 15:20 Thirsk – Silenceofthewind; 2pts @ 16/1 Paddy Power (bog) 16:20 Newmarket – Al Khan; 1pt @ 10/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power (bog) 16:30 Thirsk – Wannabe King; 2pts @ 16/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes (bog) 18:05 Thirsk – The Nifty Fox; 1pt @ 20/1 Paddy Power (bog)

[Bruce_Savage]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May Tioman Legend @ 25/1 Jonny Mudball @ 11/1 Abtaal @ 7/1 Trebles, 1 bet * £10.00 EW 05/05/2012 09:04:33 20.00 0.00 Neutrafa @ 5/1 Tioman Legend @ 25/1 Doubles, 1 bet * £25.00 EW 05/05/2012 09:01:38 50.00 0.00 Polygon @ 7/1 Woolfall Treasure @ 11/1 Osteopathic Remedy @ 8/1 Trebles, 1 bet * £20.00 EW 05/05/2012 08:59:45 40.00 0.00 Polygon @ 7/1 Power @ 10/1 Jonny Mudball @ 11/1 Trebles, 1 bet * £20.00 EW 05/05/2012 08:57:38 40.00 0.00 Polygon @ 7/1 Power @ 10/1 Doubles, 1 bet * £25.00 EW 05/05/2012 08:57:14 50.00 0.00 Fulbright @ 25/1 Osteopathic Remedy @ 8/1 Doubles, 1 bet * £25.00 EW 05/05/2012 08:54:54 50.00 0.00 Meandre @ 2/1 Power @ 10/1 Jonny Mudball @ 11/1 Trebles, 1 bet * £25.00 EW 05/05/2012 08:45:44 50.00 0.00 Polygon @ 7/1 Neutrafa @ 5/1 Spanish Duke @ 10/1 Trebles, 1 bet * £25.00 EW

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May « 2:50 » Goodwood SAT 5 MAY 2012 BETFRED THE BONUS KING BINGO STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) Winner £9,704 Soft 5f Number of runners: 8 TAGULA NIGHT 3pts to win @ 8/1 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) Tagula Night has been a very good sprinter throughout the years. He's collected 5 wins, 2 seconds and 4 thirds in 25 starts and loves it here at Goodwood as both his last two wins came over this track, both on soft ground but over 6f. He's a sprinter that loves to come from behind so he's been a bit more effective over 6f and actually he's been campaigned mainly over that distance but his efforts over 5f haven't been bad at all: 1 win, 1 second, 1 third and only on the first and on the last try over the shortest distance he's been out of the money. He has a lot going for him today. First of all he proved his wellbeing with a nice seasonal debut at Kempton over 6f finishing 3rd but beaten only 1/2L (31 Mar 2012). He was racing off 87 and recorded a RPR of 94 which is his best ever. His last start was over 5f at Beverley (18 Apr, soft, off 88) where he was quickening well from the back of the group (13 runners) but got bumped and Ted Durcan gave up (he wasn't going to win but could have been in the money probably). Those two were Tagula Night's first outs for his new trainer Dean Ivory who took him after Walter Swinburn closed his stable at the end of 2011 so there could be still more to come and it looked like they were preparing this race as the horse loves Goodwood and loves soft ground. His last two wins came over this track and his four efforts on soft ground before his last race at Beverley were 2 wins (the ones here at Goodwood) and 2 close thirds. His last third came on his second last start last year (24 Sep 2011) at Haydock over 6f (officially good to soft but the ground looked much more like soft all over, rather than the official good to soft, and that seemed the general opinion of the riders) when Tagula Night was motoring very well down the centre inside the final furlong, but got going all too late in the day. That was a 16-runner Class 3 Handicap (he ran off 85 that day) and he was coming off his last win (11 Sep 2011) at Goodwood over 6f and was 6lb higher on adjusted mark. A big plus for Tagula Night today has to be the blinkers on for the first time as the horse badly needs some headgear to perform at his best as he's proven many times in his career. With first time visor he finished a close second and his previous two efforts had been a 10th of 11 and an 11th of 14. He went on to win his first two races on his following two starts still visored of course and with the visor on he won also his third and fourth race. When the visor lost its effect he was tried with the hood and he won wearing the new headgear for the first time (his last win at Goodwood last September) and was still wearing the hood when he finished a close 3rd at Haydock on his following start. He didn't wear any headgear on his first two starts of this season and today he's gonna wear the blinkers for the first time. I'm pretty sure that's gonna be a big plus for him. Ivory had 4 winners on the AW in the last couple of months but is still looking for his first 2012 turf winner and hopefully Tagula Night can provide his new trainer with this joy today. The race isn't easy at all as there are 7 good sprinters to beat. Rowe Park is difficult to fancy even if he's won 10 times in 47 starts, all over 5f (once over today's C&D), collecting a Group 3 (in 2007) and winning a Class 2 handicap off 98 in 2010 (his last success). His five races in 2011 have shown a horse that has totally lost his form (very poor efforts) and he's hard to fancy now even if this is a drop in class for him and will race off 88 (rated up to 112 in the past and never below the 90 mark since May 2007). After 217 days off you never know how he could be but actually he wasn't used to be at the top of his game first time out even in the past and so I'd dare to say he stands a very small chance today. Desert Phantom won 3 times in 13 starts but all his wins came in 2008 (his first three starts included a Listed) and he's reached the money only twice afterwards and that came in September 2010 (3rd and 2nd, both times off 89). He had raced only once between September 2010 and his last race (25 Apr 2012) so he's had more than some problems and on his seasonal reappearance he showed nothing special (7th of 14 at Epsom, 5f, soft, behind Taurus Twins). The David Simcock-trained 6yo could well be able to build on that reappearance but it's very hard to fancy for this race (12th and 10th before that 7th last time out on his previous two starts on soft ground). Ronald Harris saddles two horses for this race: Judge'n Jury and Sugar Beet. The trainer is in decent form but has never had good results here (only 1 winner out of 50 runners over the last 6 years). The 8yo Judge'n Jury will be ridden by Darren Edward Egan so he gets an helpful 7lb claim today. The horse has achieved 9 wins in 60 starts (rated up to 109 in 2008), all over 5f and loves these conditions. He was unlucky (8th) in this race last year (saddle slipped) but was still able to achieve a victory last August (Newmarket, 5f, good to soft) but that win came off 82 and it's been his only success since July 2009. Today's mark is 87 (upped 1lb since his last 4th at Doncaster, good, on his last start of 2011 in October) but as written above he gets a very good 7lb claimer on board so Judge'n Jury is actually gonna race off 80 which is his lowest mark since 2008. He never won first time out but finished 3rd three times and as written before last year (2011 first time out came just in this race) he was unlucky and could finish just 8th. He should be the early leader but I guess he'll find 1 or 2 too good for him in the last furlong (hopefully my selection). Sugar Beet is the only other C&D winner (together with Rowe Park) and surely knows very well how to win since he's collected 7 wins in 27 starts so far and is just 4 (the youngest of the group together with Steps). He's won at Windsor (5f, good) 19 days ago with Luke Morris on board off 85 but on his next start (4 days later) he finished 3rd of 10 at Bath (5f, good to soft) in a Listed (Darren Egan on board) and has been upped 8lb for that so he has to race off 93 today which seems a bit too harsh and even if he is 1-1 here at Goodwood that win came in a Class 5 Handicap for 3yo (Sep 2011) and was off 75 and the second of that race (Green Warrior) is now rated 56 on turf and 42 on AW just to underline that wasn't a tough race at all (he won it easily indeed by the way). So among the two Harris-trained horses the best chance seems to be Judge'n Jury in my opinion. Taurus Twins is rated only 82 so he's the feather weight of the race. He's collected 6 wins and 9 seconds in his career (45 starts) all over 5f and his last success came on good to soft (Haydock, Class 4 handicap, 9 Jun 2011) but that was off 77 and even he's finished a good third off 82 last time out at Epsom (5f, soft) this mark seems more or less his actual limit. He had Desert Phantom (7th) behind him at Epsom (25 Apr) but had finished 9th and beaten 5.25L at Windsor on his seasonal debut (16 Apr) in the race won by Sugar Beet. He's got a good draw (stall 8) so could snatch a good position next to the rail but doesn't seem a big danger with his trainer Richard Price who is still maiden here at Goodwood and had just one winner in 2012 out of 23 runners. Lui Rei comes from my country (Italy) and it's nice to see an Italian-bred horse competing at this level in UK. He was very good in Italy in his juvenile career (won a Group 3 at San Siro and a Group 2 at Maison-Laffitte, both over 6f) and was campaigned over 6f, 7f and 1m never looking as a 100% sprinter. After he was moved to UK he tried the shortest distance a few times collecting some good results in defeat but I still rate him as a horse better over further and he's still maiden in UK (his last win came in June 2010 in Italy) but he collected a 2nd and a 3rd in Listed and has a few important things going for him today: he ran well last time out (seasonal debut) at Newbury (5f, soft) racing 3lb out of the handicap (was rated 91) off 94 (3rd of 7 but slowly away and beaten just 2.5L by a horse (Mirza) who went close next time out off a 3lb higher mark) and today's mark is just 92 (the lowest since he came in UK, was rated up to 102), this is a drop in class (never raced below Class 2 level so far), he's been gelded this winter and of course he could build on that good seasonal reappearance even if he was used to run very well fresh (won twice and was a close second the other time). Probably the most dangerous rival for my selection but I still think he's better over further and would have liked him more over 6f. Another big danger could be the other 4yo in this race: Steps. The Roger Varian-trained colt is the one with least experience of these runners (just 12 races so far) but won 4 times and was 3 times runner-up. After three disappointing efforts (one on his sole start on this track last October) following his win at Newmarket in June (5f, good to soft, off 87) Steps finished his 2011 winning again a Class 2 handicap (20 runners) at Doncaster (5f, good) off 89 in October. Last year he seemed to need the run (was 12th of 13 first time out and went in on his second seasonal start) but Varian is confident about his future and thinks he could be better at 4 (possible) and he should have a big prize in him so this could be well within his actual skills even if this mark (92) proved to be out of him last year (all those three bad efforts came when he had to race off marks in the low 90s). So overall the main dangers seem Judge'n Jury, Lui Rei and Steps but I'm very confident with my selection as I'm pretty sure he'll make a big step forward with first-time blinkers on today and will surely love ground and track and of course he's at a very decent price.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May I'm experiencing huge problems with my Mac and lost all the write-ups so will make a very short post with my other selections of the day. 5.15 Goodwood Kelpie Blitz 3pts to win @ 6/1 bog (many bookies) Improved since his debut when upped in distance over 1m finishing not far from good horses like Koko Loca and Enery and after poor seasonal debut he shaped way better on his second start of the season over 9.5f finishing 4th in a race won by the unbeaten and now 97-rated Ed De Gas (with Koko Loca close second). Heavily backed last time out (at Yarmouth over 9f, good to soft off 64) Kelpie Blitz found another good and well handicapped filly (Miss Cato went close off a 7lb higher mark next time out and had won her first two races earlier this year) to stop him but shaped very well under a very confident ride and finished second despite finding some troubles in the key moment of the race. Those are very strong form in this race and with today's 5lb claimer on board the horse will race off 59 which is a very handy mark as he should be able to build on his recent efforts and seems able to offer more than that with his young trainer who has already saddled 2 winners, 2 seconds, 2 thirds and 2 fourths with only 17 runners this season.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 2.30 Newmarket Meandre 4pts to win @ 9/4 bog (Bet365 and William Hill) André Fabre won this race twice (in 2006 and 2008) and presents a very interesting 4yo today. Meandre had 7 races last year collecting 3 wins (latest in the Grand Prix de Paris (Group 1) beating Seville), 3 seconds (latest in the Niel (Group 2) beaten by Realiable Man) and finished 6th in the Arc de Triomphe won by Danedream. That's a top class level and he ran well on his seasonal debut last year (close second on soft ground over a trip too short, 1m) so should be perfectly fine for this race after a 7-month break. Melbourne Cup & Hong Kong Vase-winner Dunaden is the main danger but Meandre gets 5lb from him and he seemed to need the run on his previous seasonal reappearances. Fiorente is the best British-trained horse but was withdrawn for the very soft ground at Newbury two weeks ago and could find similar conditions today so I'd better wait for him because he could be a top-class middle distance performer this year but not on this ground probably.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 3.10 Newmarket I have already posted in another thread my selections and reasoning for the 2000 Guineas. I'm on Camelot 5pts to win @ 5/1 since November and added Caspar Netscher .5pt EW @ 50/1 and Abtaal 1pt EW @ 20/1 a couple of weeks ago.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 3.45 Newmarket MAYSON 3pts to win @ 5/1 bog (most of the bookies) This is a step back up in class for Mayson but he has shown he is a better horse this year (was a good sprinter already at 3 but made a big step forward after the winter) and over 5f he could be even better than over 6f where he achieved a good third on his seasonal debut (Listed at Doncaster) and an impressive win last time out (6f, good to soft, Listed here at Newmarket 16 days ago). Caledonia Lady, Margot Did, Hamish Mcgonagall and Eton Rifles are, to name the best of them imho, all in with a good chance here but as said I see Mayson still able to improve and already in very good form at this moment of the year while most of the others should still prove it.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 4.55 Newmarket NOBLE MISSION 4pts to win @ 2/1 bog (Ladbrokes and Betvictor) The younger brother of Frankel had made a good debut at 2 finishing second behind Swedish Sailor who was surely the best 2yo colt saddled for Godolphin in 2011. He shaped very well again winning in nice style on his seasonal debut two weeks ago and seems a top-class performer in the making as Sir Henry Cecil and Prince Khalid Abdullah always thought of him. The main danger seems again a Godolphin horse here even if Swedish Sailor has been withdrawn: Mariner's Cross who made a winning debut beating in very good style 17 opponents in the Wood Ditton Stakes (1m, good to soft) here at Newmarket 16 days ago. Still he seemed a step behind Noble Mission and Al Zarooni has saddled just 3 winners with 31 runners in this British 2012 season so far and I guess all their horses are a bit behind their top that could be coming later on this season.

[RussP]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 3 bets for me so far, possibly 1 more tonight. 3.20 Thirsk 7f, Class 4 handicap with 14 runners going to post. I cannot be having The Osteopath as the horse is very exposed and may actually need a bit more cut in the ground. In a race full of question marks, I'm sticking with unexposed types and going with: Namwahjobo (3pts EW @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG) - Just a 4yo so open to loads of improvement, and looked like it would be the type to progress over the winter. Has a nice low draw in 4 which is a plus and hails from a yard amongst the winners lately. Does make its seasonal reappearance today but won a maiden well first time up last year so I'm not worried about fitness. Add to that the stable sent out a winner yesterday making its first start of 2012, it's certainly no issue unlike many of its rivals. Won it's first handicap off 74, easily by over 4L, but was then racing off marks in the 80's and was unable to repeat that form. However, this horse did perform creditably on a number of occasions and looked all over a 7f horse, quite often staying on best of all over 6f when the race was done & dusted. That includes a solid effort in the Ayr Bronze Cup towards the back end of the season. Did race twice over 7f but each time I can find excuses, most notably that the ground was too quick and track unsuitability. From what I've seen, ground with a bit of cut is required and it will get that here, whilst a flat track is definitely preferred. Step up to 7f, drop in grade and a generous looking 3lb ease in mark attract me to this bet and, under ideal conditions and with very few fitness doubts, I think 8's is a great price in a muddling heat. 4.20 Newmarket An incredibly competitive 3yo handicap with 21 runners, this is a Class 2 race that you may want to set your TV to record on. At first glance, I was going to leave the race alone but I saw a horse lurking towards the foot of the weights that went into my notebook lto: Red Quartet (2pts EW @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG) - I've no doubt this horse will have to improve to win this but, off a mark of 81 carrying just 8st3lb, I think it has a solid chance at a big price. I think several of these will improve for the outing and may turn out to be decent 3yo's but our horse looks more of a solid, rather than progressive, type. It seems to me as though all ground comes alike but the likely good or good/soft will be ideal whilst the draw is always confusing but there appears to be plenty of pace close by which is good news. Won twice as a 2yo including a 20 runner nursery at York, finishing very well that day to beat a horse rated 91 that is taking its chance in the 1000 Guineas tomorrow. Was then stepped up to 7f and again looked like winning until finding that the trip may just be a step too far. Reappeared 2 weeks ago at Newbury on softish ground, again over 7f. Seemed to get the trip that time but that was due to a snails pace where many fought for their heads. That day, Red Quartet was held up right at the back and finished well in 5th with the front 4 filling those places throughout. It was certainly a performance to mark up, based purely on the shape of the race, and with the reappearance cobwebs blown away, a faster pace and the drop back to 6f in its favour, I'm happy to play to small stakes at a fancy EW price. 5.15 Goodwood 1 NR just come through leaving us with 13 for this 3yo, Class 5 handicap over 1m2f. A notable NR too, having been 6/1 at time of withdrawl, and it leaves us with a field of 3yo's where many won't go on to achieve much. However, I can't say that about my bet: Autarch (3pts EW @ 11/1 Ladbrokes BOG) - Top weight here off a mark of 70, this one looks open to any amount of improvement. Is entered up in the Tattersalls Millions 3yo Cup and did originally hold a Derby entry. Trainer said last year that it's more of a long term prospect so it's no surprise that it didn't achieve this much in 3 races at 2. Ran 3 times in reasonably quick succession, starting off finishing plumb last before 2 more promising 4th place finishes, the first at HQ where the horse it finished just behind won its handicap debut of a 5lb higher mark than our horse faces today. Certainly looked like it would mature and be the type to improve when stepped up to middle distances. Moves up to 1m2f today but could appear like further with the likely soft ground which, on breeding, should suit the horse. This bet is almost all about potential, being a horse that should prove to be much better than its rivals in time. The other thing that appeals is the jockey booking. One of the very best at dictating the pace and, with question marks over where the pace will come from, I would not be surprised to see this one jump out and try to pinch it from the front. 70 looks a lenient opening mark and I expect our selection to go very close first time up on its way to bigger and better things.

[Lars]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May

Polygon @ 7/1 Neutrafa @ 5/1 Spanish Duke @ 10/1 Trebles, 1 bet * £25.00 EW

Hi Bruce, welcome to PL :ok We ask members to post reasoning with their selections, alongside the race-time and price taken. It helps to maintain the quality on here and allows people to read into why they've selected a certain horse, and encourage/discourage them from following if they so wish.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 2.00 Newmarket - 2pts win Circumvent @ 9/1 (Bet365) 16 go to post for this 1m1f handicap and although Paul Cole's gelding is a bit of a no frills kind of horse, he has the credentials to go very well in this. He doesn't have that blistering turn of foot that's often necessary at a high level but he's consistent on the whole and he returned to action with a very creditable 3rd in the Winter Derby at Lingfield from a wide draw, only being headed late on by rivals he had a fair bit to find with on figures. He's a past winner of a handicap off a mark of 103 so although he's struggled to win off marks around 100 of late, the fact he's obviously in form gives him an obvious chance today, and he does have excuses on a couple of runs last season. He ran numerous good races including over this 1m1f trip at Goodwood with cut in the ground off 95 in September and followed this up with a good 3l 6th of 32 in the Cambridgeshire here. He took a while to pick up and essentially this cost him. He doesn't really have the turn of foot necessary in such a big field I fancy and the leaders had gone beyond recall rather. Still, he kept on under pressure for what looked an unlikely 6th when he was first off the bridle so it was a rock solid effort in my book. The quick ground probably didn't help him either. At York he suffered a bit from the leaders just ahead of him going off quickly in front. He, himself was prominent and he never really looked like winning despite disputing the lead 1f out. Those who were held up a bit managed to get past him late on and he finished 4th of 18. He was too far back on quick ground at Newbury on his final turf run of the year before staying on so it's another effort I can forgive. A couple of good runs at Lingfield since have confirmed he's remained in form and he gets his conditions today. The ground will suit and he shouldn't get too badly outpaced today I hope. If Soumillon can get him into a good position in behind the leaders he looks sure to run a big race and hopefully can nick it with the fact he's a winner over 1m2f helping him on the stamina front.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 2.30 Newmarket - 4pts win Meandre @ 2/1 (Bet365) There are a couple of interesting runners in this, but Andre Fabre's classy horse made it into my ten to follow this season and I hope he gets it off to a flying start with a win in this. He certainly has the form to take it and I hope he's fit enough to do himself justice in a competitive field. Although the top two have form chances, it will be tough to give away 5lbs to this bunch so I'll let them win should they manage it because I think it would be some effort. Meandre failed to win on his reappearance last season which naturally gives some cause for concern, but the fact he's been brought over for this suggests he will be in decent enough shape and he proved progressive at 3 anyway so he's a better horse now than he was when he reappeared last season. Remarkably it took him seven tries before he got his head in front but he hasn't really looked back since. His fast-finishing style has become his trademark and showed it to good effect when comfortably winning the Grand Prix De Paris last year. Although it wasn't the strongest Group 1 ever, he beat the fair yardstick Seville, Reliable Man and Treasure Beace He let those two Aidan O'Brien runners do their thing up front but the fact that the former finished 2nd and the latter only beaten a short neck by Reliable Man suggests that perhaps they didn't go a breakneck gallop and it was a decent effort to reel them back. He suffered from a lack of pace and a wide berth next time out when only managing to run a 2l second to the aforementioned French-trained horse but then put in a terrific effort in the Arc De Triomphe on his final run of the year. Again he was forced wide around Longchamp, having been drawn in stall 10, but stayed on well up the straight to finish a very respectable 6th - splitting the excellent pair of St Nicholas Abbey and Sarafina. On that form he should go extremely close today but the issue is where the pace will come from. There doesn't appear to be an obvious front-runner but if something makes it an honest race, he'll take plenty of beating.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 3.10 Newmarket - 2pts win Abtaal @ 7/1 (Bet365) and 2pts win Fencing @ 22/1 (Bet365) Splitting my bets here based on the draw pretty much, but also because I believe John Gosden's runner to be overpriced in this. First of all I cannot have Camelot at the prices with him unproven on the ground and the RP Trophy was a race, whilst he won very impressively, that was a bit of a farce in the end and I just think he's too short. With the ground on the soft side it may pay to look to the French raiders and although French Fifteen may be more suited by deep ground than Abtaal, it shouldn't be horrific with the short dry spell we've had and I do prefer the top horse despite the draw potentially being difficult. My selection ran away with the Prix Thomas Bryon last season, beating the aforementioned French Fifteen by 3l. Although it's a fair point to say that he had the run of the race out in front, he looked a real horse to follow in the process as he comfortably scooted home. The trial for this was run a month ago - the Prix Djebel - and although the form was turned around on this occasion, I still fancy the Sheikh Hamdan horse to come up trumps today. The winning distance was a neck in the end and although neither jockey got too serious on their mounts, I thought Soumillon went a bit more easily on my selection who closed up at the line. Obviously he'll come on for the run and I believe the return to a mile will really help his chances. He stumbled slightly when delivering his challenge also, and on the whole put in a very pleasing trial. It's difficult to translate foreign form but I get the feeling that these two are very smart and think they'll both run well should they be on the right part of the track. Several of these have little chance so the race can essentially be whittled down to a field of about 8 in my eyes barring miracles. Although Fencing isn't particularly fancied in the betting, he showed huge promise last season and will relish the type of race he'll get today I feel. He's drawn high in stall 15, which could prove ideal, and although he was 3rd in the Racing Post Trophy, the race didn't suit him one bit. He tugged all the way as they went no pace and essentially showed his class to run a decent race in 3rd under the circumstances. The favourite for this race settled much better alongside John Gosden's horse and quickened off a slow pace to greater effect. On evidence from his win at Newbury, on his 2nd start, Fencing is a bigger striding horse and took a little while to extend. He did so at the end of the race having been green and finished 2 1/2l ahead of a 100-rated horse who won next time so it was a very good effort for such an inexperienced horse. He was doing his best work at the finish and that's why I think the race at Doncaster was a disaster for him. He should be able to settle better today in this big field and a sound gallop over a mile will suit ideally. His sire won over 1m2f and his dam over 1m3f so he should have sufficient stamina for this if settling better. Street Cry's often want a good surface which is a concern, but his dam won in France on very soft so hopefully he'll get away with it today. Could be a forgotten horse.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 3.45 Newmarket - 2pts win Caledonia Lady @ 16/1 (Bet365) I'm extremely interested to see how Temple Meads gets on after a mammoth absence but instead of siding with him (was in my 10 to follow last season but never raced) based on the lack of market support, I'll side with another one at a price with Jo Hughes' filly. She's a really speedy type who has a good turn of foot and the ground and course here should suit her. She's going to get a good pace to run off and she looks sure to be finishing off well having proved she's trained on at Bath last time. She thundered home on that occasion to be deprived by just a head and that's not really her ideal track. It was a very pleasing return to action, though, and with that under her belt I anticipate a big run today from what could be a good draw in 15. She was consistent last year without getting a great deal of luck as she only managed to win one race from eight starts. That came in a listed race at Ayr when winning comfortably but she put in so many great efforts in defeat that she's no mug in this field. She was beaten a neck in 3rd in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot before being outpaced in the Cherry Hinton. She looked like a 5f horse when going down over 6f the next twice and she bounced right back with a good 3rd in the Flying Childers behind the classy Requinto and Burwaaz. Her 3rd in the Cornwallis at Ascot also reads well considering the first two were up in the van throughout, whereas Caledonia Lady was held up in the rear. The runner-up has franked the form with good runs since and that was my selection's final run of the season. The cut in the ground suits (sire 13% on soft) and the stiffish finish here will be ideal. Looks sure to be finishing and it just depends if she has too much to do. This is obviously more demanding but is by no means out of it at the weights with her weight for age/gender allowances getting here in off a featherweight. Jo Fanning is 2-7 for the yard.

[Julius Caesar]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May Ive mentioned Trade Secret (6:05 Thirsk) in the BBOTD thread, but my second bet goes up at Hexham in the 5:40 Shelomoh 33-1 e/w B365 Recent form is not overly inspiring but a slightly deeper delve reveals to me that 33-1 might look a bit big. The trip will not be a problem and the ground being soft is certainly no problem at all. Been handicap chasing for a while now and this drop into a selling hurdle could be just what the doctor ordered! Sorry am new - can this be moved from the flat thread?

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 4:55 Newmarket: Prince Alzain 1pt win 14/1 Bet Victor Prince Alzain is more exposed than most in this field, however he is held in high regard by Gerard Butler as he was going to run him in the $2 million UAE Derby before a foot abscess forced Prince Alzain to be withdrawn. Prince Alzain has had a run at Lingfield since on the all weather and all appeared well. Most of his runs have been on an artificial surface and today's going is an unknown. The step up in trip is likely to suit and, he could go well at a big price.

[RussP]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May Adding one more to today's list. 7.25 Doncaster Another big field, with 20 doing battle in this Class 3 handicap over the straight 6f. Looking at the pace angle, I can only see 2 potential front runners drawn in 16 and 20 so I've decided to concentrate, from a value perspective, on those with double figure draws: Farlow (3pts EW @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG) - Drawn 19, I'm taking this lightly raced, generally progressive horse. Comes here with 3 wins to its name from just 9 career starts and is fit from a race on the AW 5 weeks ago. Reportedly isn't the easiest to train but has ability and trainer brings it up from Hampshire to contest this race, worth £8k to the winner. Looks all over a 6f horse and good ground is the order of the day. With ground drying out, I think the going shouldn't pose any issues. After winning its maiden last term, it went on to win a 5f handicap at Warwick off 71 before a decent 4th over 6f at Ponte where the stiff track may just have taken its toll in the closing stages. Trotted up next time out at Lingfield over this trip off 77, scooting clear by 5L and should have won next up off 83 but just didn't find the gaps and went down narrowly. Since then, has raced twice off marks around this one. 9th of 21 over C&D off 1lb on its last start as a 3yo but had the worst of the draw that day in 1 and could never get competitive. However, what I liked about that run was how the horse responds to pressure, staying on well having looked like fading badly. On its reappearance at Kempton, the jockey was working pretty hard most of the way, yet looked to hold every chance 2f out before lack of fitness paid inside the last. Again, though, our charge stuck to its task well and should be suited by a return to a straight track and easier ground today. That, along with high draw and a 1lb ease in the weights, makes 14/1 look too big. And finally, trainer puts a promising 3lb claimer up top who travels up from HQ for just 1 ride. I'm expecting a big run.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May SADEEK'S SONG 2.30 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Improved well last season and can continue to improve this season. Drifting in the market is a bit of a worry, but I've seen them still win. The trip and ground shouldn't be a concern and Godolphin have them fit and ready. Dettori on board and looks a big price to me. 12/1 Bet365 BOG

[Spooner]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May 16/1 & 14/1 winners Russ :notworthy

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May Great stuff Russ :clap:clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May Ohhhhh Russy baby!!! :clap

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May I'm very happy since I hit three decent winners but RussP you did it just another super job today. Hat off :clap

[RussP]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May

3.20 Thirsk Namwahjobo (3pts EW @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG) unpl 4.20 Newmarket An incredibly competitive 3yo handicap with 21 runners, this is a Class 2 race that you may want to set your TV to record on. At first glance, I was going to leave the race alone but I saw a horse lurking towards the foot of the weights that went into my notebook lto: Red Quartet (2pts EW @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG) WON :ok - I've no doubt this horse will have to improve to win this but, off a mark of 81 carrying just 8st3lb, I think it has a solid chance at a big price. I think several of these will improve for the outing and may turn out to be decent 3yo's but our horse looks more of a solid, rather than progressive, type. It seems to me as though all ground comes alike but the likely good or good/soft will be ideal whilst the draw is always confusing but there appears to be plenty of pace close by which is good news. Won twice as a 2yo including a 20 runner nursery at York, finishing very well that day to beat a horse rated 91 that is taking its chance in the 1000 Guineas tomorrow. Was then stepped up to 7f and again looked like winning until finding that the trip may just be a step too far. Reappeared 2 weeks ago at Newbury on softish ground, again over 7f. Seemed to get the trip that time but that was due to a snails pace where many fought for their heads. That day, Red Quartet was held up right at the back and finished well in 5th with the front 4 filling those places throughout. It was certainly a performance to mark up, based purely on the shape of the race, and with the reappearance cobwebs blown away, a faster pace and the drop back to 6f in its favour, I'm happy to play to small stakes at a fancy EW price. 5.15 Goodwood Autarch (3pts EW @ 11/1 Ladbrokes BOG) unpl

7.25 Doncaster Another big field, with 20 doing battle in this Class 3 handicap over the straight 6f. Looking at the pace angle, I can only see 2 potential front runners drawn in 16 and 20 so I've decided to concentrate, from a value perspective, on those with double figure draws: Farlow (3pts EW @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG) WON :ok - Drawn 19, I'm taking this lightly raced, generally progressive horse. Comes here with 3 wins to its name from just 9 career starts and is fit from a race on the AW 5 weeks ago. Reportedly isn't the easiest to train but has ability and trainer brings it up from Hampshire to contest this race, worth £8k to the winner. Looks all over a 6f horse and good ground is the order of the day. With ground drying out, I think the going shouldn't pose any issues. After winning its maiden last term, it went on to win a 5f handicap at Warwick off 71 before a decent 4th over 6f at Ponte where the stiff track may just have taken its toll in the closing stages. Trotted up next time out at Lingfield over this trip off 77, scooting clear by 5L and should have won next up off 83 but just didn't find the gaps and went down narrowly. Since then, has raced twice off marks around this one. 9th of 21 over C&D off 1lb on its last start as a 3yo but had the worst of the draw that day in 1 and could never get competitive. However, what I liked about that run was how the horse responds to pressure, staying on well having looked like fading badly. On its reappearance at Kempton, the jockey was working pretty hard most of the way, yet looked to hold every chance 2f out before lack of fitness paid inside the last. Again, though, our charge stuck to its task well and should be suited by a return to a straight track and easier ground today. That, along with high draw and a 1lb ease in the weights, makes 14/1 look too big. And finally, trainer puts a promising 3lb claimer up top who travels up from HQ for just 1 ride. I'm expecting a big run.

Absolutely delighted with today's outcome. First up, Red Quartet won well despite drifting across the track. The faster pace suited and the horse travelled supremely well. Finally, Farlow ran on very well responding to pressure as I predicted to won quite cosily. What I was really pleased with was the reading of the race shape. For both, I felt there were drawn near the pace in straight track races and that was backed up by the results; Red Quartet, drawn in 3, with the places drawn in 4 & 1 whilst Farlow, drawn in 19, with the next four home drawn 15, 20, 17 & 18 at prices ranging from 14's to 40's. A 15p R4 with the Red Quartet bet, but still almost 100pts returned on the day :ok 96.5pts back from a 22pt stake for a tidy 74.5pt profit.

[RussP]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May Not forgetting Edberg hitting the back of the net yet again on 3 occasions. Well done mate :ok

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 5th May [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Churchill Downs 11:24 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Daddy Nose Best [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 05/05/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 0.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] One of two entries in the race from trainer Steven Asmussen with the other offered at much bigger odds. Daddy Nose Best is unbeaten in two starts this year both in Group 3 company. He mostly raced on Turd last year as a 2yo winning only once from four starts. His first two career runs was at this course and the return to the surface had proven to be a good move. Perhaps they should have stayed with him on dirt last year but oh well. He does have a Group 1 race under his belt and that was in last years Juvenile Turf where he finished 6th of 14 by 4 lengths. The dirst is where he should having been sired by Scat Daddy and I think he will improve being on it today. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]