BBotd - Thu 3rd May 2012

[The Saint]

300 Muss – Nadeen – 9/2 – VC & £3.65 Looks a fairly weak race and am taking a chance that Nadeen can put his best foot forward again – something he failed to do after winning on his debut last term. It should be pointed out that he only runs off 67 today having, 3lbs higher than his last run/victory but still 11lbs lower than his best winning mark last term. Has to prove that he stays a mile but travelled well last time off a fast pace(7f) and wasn’t stopping at the line. Form of the race has worked out and should be able to get cover near the rail, is 2 from 3 @ the course, has a good draw, goes on the ground and I only really see Le Chat D’Or and Save The Bees as plausible dangers.

[cpo]

Re: BBotd - Thu 3rd May 2012 3.30 Musselburgh Spirit of a Nation e/w 16/1 Paddy Power I think this horse is too big here considering he is proven in a higher class than this. I think a line can be put through his hurdling career as he was beaten a combination of 169 lengths in 4 races so clearly didn't take to hurdles. I you look at his form last year on the flat, he was never beaten too far apart from when he was tried in class 3 company. He managed to get a win at Haydock over 14f and went close at Newcastle over this trip of 12f. Both of those efforts came off a mark of 73 so he is just 2lbs higher here but he does drop in grade which could make the difference. On his last start on the flat he was tried in class 3 company at Ayr where he just found the opposition too hot. He drops down 2 classes today and he is the highest rated horse in this race. A few years ago he won off a mark of 80 so 75 should pose no problems for him. James Moffatt has a good record at the track with the few runners he has brought here. Paddy Aspell has rode the horse a few times in the past and he is a more than capable jockey. Ground is not an issue for the horse and he wouldn't mind any more rain if it came. Tips Libre looks the main danger as he is unpenalised for his win last time out in an amateur race. He is actually 2lbs lower than that win but he will find this tougher. Spirit of a Nation does have to put a lot of poor runs behind him over hurdles but I think there is every chance he can bounce back in what looks a very winnable race.