jump racing saturday - 28th april

[beaker1]

2.30 IRISH FIELD CHASE The third cross country chase of the meeting and it should be quite a spectacle with 22 runners and I would argue it is a classer race than the La Touche Cup. Enda Bolger has won the last four runnings and is triple-handed this time with the classy hunter chaser On The Fringe, Zest For Life (third here on Tuesday), Arabella Boy (brought down 2 out in the La Touche Cup) and the grand old servant Heads Onthe Ground who is now a 15-year-old. SHORT LIST ON THE FRINGE OUTLAW PETE ANOTHER JEWEL SIZING AUSTRALIA CONCLUSION Lack of cross country experience could be what holds ON THE FRINGE back but he has the most natural ability of the Bolger quartet. He was my ante-post fancy for the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ having finished fourth in that same race in 2011 as just a six-year-old but the ground became too fast so he was withdrawn on the day. Placed in two hot hunter chases in Ireland on his only two starts this season, the ground will not be a problem to him here and I’m sure he has been very well schooled. J T McNamara rides. I have to include OUTLAW PETE again don’t I having made a case out for him in the La Touche Cup only to exit five out when in front. Who knows if he would have won but he looked to be going well at the time. ANOTHER JEWEL won last year’s La Touche Cup on firm ground but runs here instead which suggests they didn’t fancy 4m1f on heavy ground on Thursday so it’s this 3m contest instead. His form this year suggests they have been training him with this meeting in mind, either that or he has just lost it. I prefer the first option. SIZING AUSTRALIA won the Cheltenham Festival cross country handicap on very fast ground in 2011 and ran okay in defence of his title when fourth back in March. The La Touche Cup trip probably just stretches him so this 3m banks race is his chosen port of call. I do worry a little whether he will love the ground though. 3.10 TOTE.COM PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP Rescheduled for today having been postponed from Wednesday, we have lost Noble Prince and Captain Chris as a consequence. What Noble Prince was even doing in the race in the first place was beyond me. Therefore I have just tweaked the original analysis a little. Known as the Guinness Gold Cup at the time of the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide going to print has attracted zero horses that contested the Gold Cup so we don’t have to concern ourselves with that race as a guide (Quel Esprit was pulled out in the morning on Gold Cup day) but the John Durkan Memorial Chase run over 2m4f here back in December and won by Rubi Light has very much been the key home guide suggesting an affinity with the course is a big positive featuring six of the last 13 winners, four of which completed the double so no surprise to see Rubi Light here and he will adore the ground. The big question though is whether he will stay in the ground. Seven of the last eight Irish-trained winners had won at Punchestown before which is also a plus point for Follow The Plan, Magnanimity and Quel Esprit plus the sole British raider, Quantitativeeasing. The winner to miss out in the previous eight years on that course winning stat was last year’s 20/1 winner, Follow The Plan, who is back to defend his title and who is making a habit of creating shock wins in big prizes having also won the Betfred Bowl at Aintree at 50/1 earlier in the month. In fact, Follow The Plan has won seven times under Rules from 30 starts and never at shorter than 10/1. Now there is a horse that was worth following blindly! It is also worth noting that both winners of the Betfred Bowl, which he won with a degree of comfort despite being 50/1, to run here have won. Three of the last ten winners contested this race last season (another positive for Follow The Plan) and the other key Irish race is the Lexus Chase which has thrown up three of the last nine winners and was won in convincing style by the sadly-departed subsequent Gold Cup winner, Synchronised who beat Rubi Light with Magnanimity and Follow The Plan behind. Kauto Star couldn’t recuperate in time at the age of 11 from a hard run in last season’s Gold Cup as he was pulled up here having been sent off as the 10/11 favourite. In fact there has been no winner older than eight for eight years which is the statistical negative that Follow The Plan has to overcome. He is only nine though so hardly past it, as is Apt Approach, maybe unlike the 10-year-old Roberto Goldback. The favourite has won seven of the last ten runnings and the same figures apply to horses that had previously won at Grade 1 level. Quel Esprit is favourite at present over Rubi Light. The British have won three of the last five runnings and are solely represented by Quantitativeeasing, whose form figures on soft or heavy ground read 111. A stat that in-running punters might want to take on board is that five of the last six winners were in front as early as five fences from home. I would expect either Rubi Light or Quel Esprit to be in front at this point. SHORT LIST RUBI LIGHT QUEL ESPRIT (FOLLOW THE PLAN) CONCLUSION Having won at the course before when he won the John Durkan which has been an excellent guide and also ran second in another good guide in the Lexus Chase, RUBI LIGHT could be the one to beat here. He found faster ground against him in the Ryanair but he is a machine on a testing surface inIrelandand he could easily run these ragged on this heavy ground if he truly stays. That is the big sticking point as the jury remains out after his Lexus second to an extent but he was second to the future Gold Cup winner and beat a real stayer in Quito De La Roque (though I suspectQuitowas below his best). QUEL ESPRIT should love this ground. He won a poor renewal of the Irish Hennessy where his stride was shortening at the end but this small field could help him fully stay. I am not sure he will be able to lead Rubi Light but I would be surprised if this pair didn’t force the pace from half-way in a race where prominent racers have a great record and they should also start in the first two in the betting in as well. My feeling is that Quel Esprit will start favourite and the market leader has a very good record so he has to make the short list. Last year’s shock winner FOLLOW THE PLAN is one year older than ideal hence the brackets around his name in the short list as he does have a statistic to overcome but it can be argued he makes up for that having contested the right races, notably the Betfred Bowl which he won with comfort and it is noteworthy that the only two winners of that race at Aintree to run here have both won. There are two weeks less between Aintree and Punchestown this season than last year however which doesn’t give him long to recover. Quantitiveeasing is not a trends horse but I fancy him to run a big race with form figures of 111 on soft or heavy ground and his defeat of Medermit at Cheltenham in December reads well. Stats said he had a very hard task on under top weght in the JLT Handicap Chase at Cheltenhamso I would be happy to forgive him that run. 3.45 GUINNESS HANDICAP CHASE Another race that has been saved from earlier in the week and Fiendish Flame has been taken out since. This is the most valuable handicap chase of the meeting and taking place over 2m4f. Willie Mullins has trained five of the last eight winners including the last three with J’y Vole, Polmar and the ill-fated Scotsirish and he relies on Raptor this time. Paul Nolan took this race in successive years with Torduff Boy (2002 and 2003) and his Kymandjen only found one too good two years later and he runs Westmeath from out of the handicap. Scotsirish defied the weight stats last season when successful off top weight thus becoming the first winner to carry more than 11st 6lbs since the Aidan O’Brien-trained Idiots Venture in 1997 (who had finished third in a Grade 1 the previous day). Since 1997, nine of the 14 winners carried under 11st and, in the last seven seasons alone, 23 of the 28 top-four places have gone the way of horses carrying less than 11st so it really was some performance for Scotsirish to win off 11st 10lbs last season. On that basis, I am looking to the under 11st horses again so Tranquil Sea is not for me. Following novices in handicap at thebig springFestivals is never a bad thing and they have an eye-catching record winning five of the last 13 runnings. Foildubh, Raptor and Westmeath represent novices this time. And don’t be concerned if your fancy failed to finish in the first three last time out as 11 of the last 12 winners failed to occupy a top-three slot on their previous outing yet 11 of the last 15 winners started between second and fourth-favourite. SHORT LIST RAPTOR CARRIGMARTIN WESTMEATH CONCLUSION Being a lightly-weighted novice trained by Willie Mullins who has supplied the last three winners of this race then RAPTOR has to be of interest. He isn’t easy to predict though but he does like a cut in the ground and was running a good race until falling 3 out in a Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Pulled up last time out in the Irish National, he is a course and distance winner and this is far less competitive of course and today could be his big day. CARRIGMARTIN won a competitive handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out off a mark of 116. This won’t be so easy back over fences off a 16lbs higher mark and on more testing ground and he was a disappointing favourite in this race last year but he did travel very well last time so is clearly at the top of his game right now and I envisage a big run. WESTMEATH is a novice hailing from a yard with a good record in the race so is worth his place as the third horse for the short list. He hasn’t shown much since making a winning chase debut to be honest but this first step up in trip to 2m4f could help. I couldn’t put anyone off the novice, Foildubh, either but I’m not a fan of having four on a short list in an 11-runner race. 4.25 ITBA FILLIES’ SCHEME EBF MARES HURDLE A very competitive field of 17 for what can be the second best mares’ race of the season behind the **** Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. SHORT LIST OUR GIRL SALLEY UNE ARTISTE BABY SHINE GOLDEN SUNBIRD CONCLUSION Which mares can handle the testing ground could be as important as natural ability so UNE ARTISTE has to go on any short list having won the Fred Winter and then following up atCheltenhamlast week on very testing ground. The worry is how quickly will she have recovered from that race on testing ground nine days ago and encountering soft ground again. OUR GIRL SALLEY was my each-way bet for the Mares Hurdle at the Festival but the crawl didn’t suit her though, in fairness, it didn’t suit plenty of others either. Therefore she has been a little disappointing on her last two runs both inBritainbut, inIreland, she has an excellent profile and I can see her bouncing back here and she has won four times on heavy ground. BABY SHINE won atLeicesteron heavy ground in January so this surface should not inconvenience her too much and the last time we saw her she was an outclassed third to Simonsig at Aintree. There is no Simonsig in this line up and Lucy Wadham sent over a mare to win a Grade 1 race at this meeting in 2005. GOLDEN SUNBIRD finished third in this race last year on good ground but five of her six wins have been on soft or heavy ground so I can see an improved performance. Third as a 66/1 shot to Quevega at the Cheltenham Festival last time out, she is arguably the form pick. 5.00 AES CHAMPION 4-Y.O HURDLE British-trained horses have been massively stronger than the Irish in the juvenile hurdling division over the last decade so I am not surprised that they hold the edge even in an away game winning over half of the runnings since 1998 (9 from 14) from significantly fewer runners. Considering the Brits very rarely bring over any more than two runners, that is a very strong return and they are three-handed this time with Alan King sending over the classy Balder Succes and the mud-loving Secret Edge and Kevin Ryan running Unknown Rebel. It usually pays to look to Graded-race form in the top juvenile hurdles and only two winners of this race were dipping their hooves into pattern-race waters for the first time in the last decade. Little shock that the Triumph Hurdle has been the number one guide. Significantly so in fact featuring ten of the last 14 winners and, of those ten winners, seven had finished in the first four at Cheltenham. Triumph contenders are Hisaabaat (2nd), Wingtips (5th), His Excellency (8th), Shadow Catcher (12th), Darroun (13th), Balder Succes, (fell) and Ut De Sivola (pulled up). The best Irish guide weighing in with two of the last four winners is the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle run at Leopardstown on Irish Hennessy Day in which Hisaabaat beat Shadow Catcher with the subsequent Triumph winner, Countrywide Flame, back in third. With all but one of the last 11 winners proving very findable at no bigger than 7/1, this is yet another leading juvenile hurdle which has been a good race for students of form. Also note hold-up horses as they won nine renewals on the spin until Barizan made all two years ago which is very tough to do over hurdles at this meeting in contrast to races run in the chase course. SHORT LIST HISAABAAT BALDER SUCCES SECRET EDGE DARROUN CONCLUSION HISAABAAT was the best placed finisher of the septet that took each other on in the Triumph Hurdle which has been the most significant guide and given that he also won the best Irish guide to this race then he has to be the horse to beat. BALDER SUCCES fell in the Triumph early on and he could be best of the British trio. He looked all class in the paddock beforehand where reportedly the stable couldn’t split him and the eventual third and subsequent Aintree winner Grumeti beforehand. If he is as good as Grumeti then he is major player contender here. King also sends over SECRET EDGE doubtless partly because he is a mudlark. He wouldn’t have the class of some of these but ability to handle close to waterlogged ground is going to be important here so he is worth a shot on the short list given the excellent run of British-trained horses. Unknown Rebel makes up the British challenge but lack of any pattern-race form is the statistical concern with him so DARROUN receives the final berth. He also contested the Triumph Hurdle where he probably did too much out in front in a race where the 1-2 came from off the pace and he had previously beaten Hisaabaat at Leopardstown so has a real chance if given a less aggressive ride. 5.35 SETANTABET.COM HANDICAP HURDLE This 2m4f handicap hurdle is the most valuable handicap hurdle at the meeting but it could be argued to have only really been in existence for four years under its current guise after it received a massive prize money boost, since when Willie Mullins has taken over winning two of the four runnings including a 1-2 two years ago (also trained last year’s runner-up and the third three years ago). Mullins runs half a dozen this time; Sergeant Guib’s (Patrick Mullins), Immediate Response (Emmit Mullins), Marito (Ruby Walsh), Inspector Clouseau (David Casey), Drive Time (Paul Townend) and Catleen (Danny Mullins). Winners regularly carried over 11st when it was just a run-of-the-mill handicap that can’t be considered the same race as it is now, but since the big cash was up for grabs, it has been that lightly-weighted horses that have been coming to the fore with 11 of the 12 first-three finishers carrying no more than 10st 12lbs. SHORT LIST MALLER TREE CAPELLANUS MARITO CAOLANEION INSPECTOR CLOUSEAU CONCLUSION MALLER TREE is interesting first time in a handicap for Jessica Harrington. Fourth in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting last time out, two of the last four winners of this race placed at that meeting and he seems to handle most ground. The stable do very well in valuable handicap hurdles. MARITO looks the Mullins number one of his six runners with Walsh booked and he handled very soft ground inFrance. Last of five on his only start this season and only run since moving to Mullins fromFrance, he has to be much better than that for Walsh to be taking the mount. CAPELLANUS may have been trained for this. Owned by a big punter and trained by Edward O’Grady, he had a run on the Flat last month which could be seen as putting him spot on for this. Successful on heavy ground atGalwayin October, he then only found one too good on this course again on soft ground which may have prompted connections to have this race in mind for a while. CAOLANEION is a smart novice having his first handicap. He is a chaser in the making for sure given the size of him and he could appreciate this testing ground more than most. He galloped well clear by half-way in a Grade 2 last time out won by Lyreen Legend last time and faded to be beaten ten lengths but he could be a major force here if not ridden quite so aggressively. INSPECTOR CLOUSEAU is a course winner and may be next best of the Mullins sextet. He hasn’t run for four months when brought down in a Pertemps Qualifier where he was interestingly moving up in trip to 3m. This 2m4f still represents a longer trip than he is used to which could see him find the necessary improvement and if I fancy Capellanus, I also have to have respect for Inspector Clouseau who was only half a length adrift of him on heavy ground at Galway.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: jump racing saturday - 28th april Punchestown 430 - Shadow Catcher 13/2 1Pt Win WilliamHill This is a very competitive race on paper and I have 4 or 5 of them very close on figures with Balder Success looking the best of them. He should suit the conditions as well but at 5/2 offers no value to me, so I have sided with Shadow Catcher instead. The conditions look to suit him the most and he has come out on top against a couple of these on this type of ground already this season. There are quite a few dangers with Ut De Sivola being an interesting one, having won well on this type of ground earlier in the year and then disappointing since away from these conditions. Darroun & Edeymi look decent EW shouts at a good price, and I think Hisabaat wont enjoy the ground. Secret Edge will love the ground but I still think he has a bit to find. 540 - Last of The Leaders 10/1 1Pt Win A few come to the fore in this handicap, but I think Last Of The Leaders has a decent prize in him over hurdles somewhere and I am hoping this is it. He has done well on his return to hurdling and shapes like he has needed more of a test the last twice, which he just about gets here. He should relish the conditions and while others start to fade in the closing stages, I am expecting this one to go bounding on. One of the others that catches my eye is Up For The Match, he looks ahead of his mark and will be another that has conditions to suit and I will probably also have a few quid on him. Caolaneoin could be a danger if he settles better & Immediate Response has won like a good horse the last twice but could find top weight too much in this race. Maller Tree is interesting but I dont think the ground will suit as well as others & the same can be said for He'll Be Rememberred. 315 - Quantitiveeasing 8/1 1pt Win I backed him in the original race at 10/1 so I am a bit disappointed to get the worse price & unfortunately I have also thrown by workings away so not entirely sure for my reasoning. However, I think I had this one and Rubi Light as the best rated in the race and both will have the ground the way they like it. I was on RL at 7/2 in the week but 5/2 is short enough, especially with small doubts over stamina, so McCoy's mount gets the thumbs up from me. 350 - Carrigmartin 8/1 & Foildubh 5/1 Again I cant remember why I picked them originally but thought I would just post them anyway. I think Carrigmartin won well LTO over hurdles and his win over Wise Old Owl here looks decent and I dont think this mark is unsurmountable with the potential of more to come over this trip. Foildubh is one who will like the conditions and is fairly weighted on this mark, especially if the step up in trip suits.