Jumps - Tuesday 17th April

[Blazing Bailey]

A couple of decent cards for these midweek end of season meetings at Kempton & Exeter, so fingers crossed for some winners! Although with rain predicted at both venues (more so at Kempton) picking the horses the night before is a bit risky and small stakes are probably best for the time being. Exeter 300 - Oscarslad 3/1 1pt Win Paddy Power There should be a couple of improvers in this field but I think Oscarslad has the solidest form of the lot and with the potential of more to come he should be a solid bet even at a shortish price. His last run has worked out well with the 2nd placed horse coming 2nd off 109. The selection should improve for the extra distance and while quicker ground is an unknown, he seemed to improve a bit for the better ground last time, and might even come on more for it here. As for the rest of them, im sure a lot of attention will be directed at Soulard who wont LTO for David Pipe, but that was an uncompetitive race where he was unimpressive and the form of the races he placed in before that havent worked out too well. Al Co is back down to his last winning mark but looks moody & inconsistent, Imperial Circus was unlucky not to do better in his penultimate run due a ponderous jump at the last consting him momentum, but he didnt confirm that promise NTO. Teenage Kicks has a chance but I think he will be better over further and while Counting House may have needed his last run I will pass on him for the time being. 330 - Spring Moon 11/2 1pt Win Bet365 This horse has been knocking on the door recently with 4 second places finishes and while I sometimes question a horses resolution when that is the case, I do feel he may have been a little unlucky, and can hopefully go one better tomorrow. He went down by a neck to a horse now rated 119 LTO and while conditions werent totally in that horses favour when they met, with Spring Moon only racing off 105 in this race he must have a great shout. Similarly the 3rd in that race has also gone on to win again NTO to make the form look very solid. Trip & ground should be no problem and my only concern is the 135 day break. Of the main dangers, Key Cutter looks like he could be an improver if the headgear he wore in his last race continues to do the trick having beaten a 110 (ish) rated horse by 11lenghts (eased down as well) so if he confirms that form then he could be well in, with the jockey believing he would get this sort of trip after that race. Fairoak who is having his 2nd run after a long break should improve, but I want to see more evidence that he can compete off this mark first and with him already being around 4-5/1 I will pass. I backed Kaybeew LTO but I think the increase in weights, potential firmer ground, and higher class will all find him out, which his trainer was wary of after that win. The race that Pairc Na Gcapall came 2nd in LTO fell apart and the form looks weak, Ethiopia has his wellfare to prove, Sea Saffron needs to show his revival over hurdles will be confirmed over fences and Jolly Boys Outing is probably weighted to best up in class and away from his favourite track. Kempton 350 - Farleigh House 10/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes I was ready to leave this race alone given some of the question marks over some of the runners but I think there is some value to be had in this one's price in an 8 runner contest. I would look to EW but at 1/5 a place 10/1 looks a little short for me but its each to their own. The selection's form when 2nd to Wessex King looks quite good in this race with that horse winning off 120 since & the 3rd place horse coming 2nd off 111 (10l behind FH). His most recent run came after a lay off so I am expecting better here in conditions that should suit providing the rain doesnt come too hard. For that reason this may be one to wait on, as I would be surprised if the price contracted too much before the off. Of the others, Im convinced Baseball Ted is going to pop up at some point as he has a little bit of decent form, but recent disapointing outings mean I will pass for now. Kikos has been off the track for 172 days and while he does well fresh, I still think he is too high int he weights. Coolbeg is very short for what he has achieved and at 2/1 I will leave well alone. Ajzal looks weighted to best & I wasnt impressed by how he was hanging right LTO & Tooka will probably want a bit further than 16f around here to be shown at his best and he is one of several front runners in this race. 420 - Dance For Livvy - 8/1 1pt Win Bet365 Probably another race I should have stayed away from but the form of the selections 3rd to One Lucky Lady looks decent in the context of this race and could be a live runner at a decent price. The winner has subsequently been places of 120, the 2nd won NTO and the 4th has placed since. Her most recent runner was over much further and a line can be put through that run. Luggers Hall is a market mover and looks a big danger in my books if he can reproduce the form of his penultimate start. He did so well to finish where he did considering his rider lost his irons towards the end but I get the feeling this trip may be a little too sharp. The favourites Alfraamsey & Dark Spirit also ahve good shouts but the former is having his first run back after a break and the latter is too short for what he has achieved so far in my (tight) eyes. He could be very well treated there is no value in 2/1.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps - Tuesday 17th April *Abbevillian - Kempton 4:50* Running off a nice mark tomorrow and interestin that Hutchinson is booked for the ride this time. Still lightly raced, has won over this trip, ground will suit, and has only been out of the frame 3 times in 8 runs. Egerton stable is in form too. *0.5 Points e/w @ 12/1 Boylesports BOG*