Jumps - Sunday 15th April

[Blazing Bailey]

After a poor day at Aintree I am hoping to put it right with a few winners at Ffos Las & Market Rasen (will come later) :hope Ffos Las 315 - Rockabilly 2pt Win 11/2 Ladbrokes There are few contenders in this race but I think my selection should just about have the edge over them. He looked like the likely winner before falling in his penultimate race and his more recent 2nd has been franked by Sound Accord (3rd) who won NTO. His mark is only 2lb higher than when he fell and Im hoping today is the day he makes amends. He has won at the trip, on the ground and in the class. Of the others, both thelobstercatcher and Fishoutofwater are sloppy jumpers with average form, and whilst I can envisage the latter improving, I would like to see it first before I back him, especially at the prices. Carabinier looks too high in the weights and im not sure the distance will suit, Bathwick Brave is having its chase debut, King Jack has attitude problems (serial 2nd place, lucky to win LTO) and Ceepeegee is generally inconsistent (although probably has a squeek here). The two I am most worried about are Five Out Of Five and Culahill. FOOF's 2nd at Fakenham was decent considering it was after a break and also with unusual tactics and he looked set to go close before falling LTO. Culahill also could improve after its first run after a break and his 2nd LTO doesnt look too bad in the context of this race, with conditions set to suit. 425 - Sunny Legend 10/1 1pt Win Bet365 & Dragons Den 6/1 1pt Win Paddy Power There are already a couple of market movers in this race and the main two of Speed Master & Glenstall Abbey could be dangers, but I think that both will ahve to improve. Speed Master did pretty well in a hit race at Sandown, but looked as if his stamina didnt hold out before the hill came into play and with that in mind I am conscious about backing him here at the same trip. Glenstall Abbey definitely need to improve in my book, buy as a Mcmanus horse with AP riding, that could well be forthcoming. Teh rest of them however (bar my two) dont look up to much and the majority are too high in the weights for my liking. Sunny legend is an interesting contender having beaten a couple of improvers at Towcester and also only just losing to Carrigmorna King who is now rated in the late 120's. Sunny Legend is currently 130 for this so it does strictly leave him with a bit to find by that logic, but I think he may well find it. He likes to be out in front, which is something I prefer and at the price he might give some of these a run for their money. I backed Dragons Den LTO where he won fairly comfortably and I think he has it in him to defy a 5lb rise. The form with Katchmore (who won again) could still leave him with a bit in hand and with several of these with question marks over them, he could be the answer. 455 - Grand Article 10/1 1pt Win Paddy Power Bit of a tentative one is this as I dont think he is the best jumper and a lot will depend on if he can do better in that department in tomorrows race. If he does, then I can see him improving for the better ground and his Warwick 3rd to two NTO improvers could make him a live contender for this at a decent price. A lot of his rivals look as if they will want further and the others look to be too high in the weights to make them a betting opportunity for me. He comes with risks but the price reflects that imo, in what is a weak race.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Jumps - Sunday 15th April Market Rasen 335 - Monkey Milan 5/1 1pt Win Bet365 & Ballygunner 8/1 1pt Win William Hill This is a decent little contest with a few that could have chances. Monkey Milan won really well LTO and only had to be pushed out to score. The form looks solid in that race and his mark hasnt gone up by too much, and therefore he must have a good chance here. This seems to be his trip and the ground conditions will be fine. Ballygunner could be interesting on his Ludlow 5th behind a couple of decent horses (9 1/2 lengths from Swing Bowler & Sonoran Sands) and if he was to run to that type of form at this longer trip, which suggest it will suit, then he will have a good chance here. Royal Entourage is one to be wary of but I think he prefers genuinly good ground and at a price I think Galley Slave could run well (currently 50/1 @ William Hill) based on his previous run here. He hasnt performed as well on his next two starts but they were at longer trips. This is a couple of furlongs longer than that 2nd here (winner won & placed since) but as long as we dont get anymore rain, then he might be worth a small wager or an EW only bet. 440 - Ive Been Framed 3/1 1pt Win Paddy Power & Chapel House 7/2 1pt Win Paddy Power Not much juice in this one given the prices but I think they are the improvers in the race. The handicapper looks to have caught up with the rest and while I wouldnt be surprised if one of the bottom weights well at a decent price I think both of my selections will have too much for this field, but im not sure which one will have the most!