AAMI Golden Slipper -Sat 7th April 2012 - Rosehill Race 7

[cim85]

Here is some handy mail for anyone considering an investment on the AAMI Golden Slipper Sat 7th April 2012.....the world's richest 2 yo race; This relates to the position in running of previous Golden Slipper winners. There is a common belief that the Slipper is a speed race but contrary to what many people think, it pays to be on the pace. Looking at the past 10 years, six winners settled in the top-four, eight winners were drawn inside barrier 8, and six of these were inside barrier 6. Of the two winners drawn in outside barriers, Phelan Ready settled near last but had a hot tempo with More Joyous scooting along in front, and Polar Success was able to cross the field without too much hassle and somehow sat in the 1-1 position. Miss Finland was the one exception to the rule, settling 12th of 16 and storming home to win by 4.5 lengths. She was perhaps the best 2yo filly we’ve seen in 10 years and beat arguably the weakest Slipper field in recent times. Compared to previous editions of this race, there looks to be far less pace in the race this year than usual, so the rule of thumb that you need to be in the top-four becomes particularly important. When assessing this year’s race, look for horses that are drawn in and will be able to sit in the top-four without having to do too much work. Statistics from previous Golden Slippers indicate that: Barriers drawn 1-5 = 41% chance of winning the race Barriers drawn 1-9 = 72% chance of winning the race Barriers drawn 10 plus = good luck with that project! Based on this methodology and available speed maps, these horses appear to be the contenders to grab the chocolates; 4. Amorino (Barrier 2) 11. Driefontein (Barrier 8) 13. Snitzerland (Barrier 7) 14. Cavalry Rose (Barrier 5) Note that Amorino with plenty of speed currently listed at around triple figure odds of $100+ on some totes and $150 on Betfair.......Driefontein ticking the boxes with 4 starts for 4 wins, including 2 wins at the distance, is nice each way double figure odds and a value bet at $15+ Now wouldn't that be a nice Quinella? Good luck, hope this helps you out! Cheers, Mark Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: AAMI Golden Slipper -Sat 7th April 2012 - Rosehill Race 7 Nice post Mark. :ok Any chance you can set up a different thread to explain how odds are quoted and what exactly they mean and I'll get it stickied. For example: You mention odds of $100, but what would that relate to, is it 100/1 or is it different. I think it would be very helpful. :ok