Jumps - Tuesday April 3rd

[Blazing Bailey]

Fontwell 310 – River D’Or 1pt Win 13/2 Paddy Power Having looked through the card there are a few that seem well out of form and can (hopefully) be scratched from my list. I have whittled it down to four, but realistically I think it is down to two horses. Firstly the favourite (Salut Honore 13/8) looks to be a decent horse who is showing steady improvement but I don’t think its particularly easy to judge the form of his races and from my eye he might find it a little tough of his new mark. My selection looks to be on a good mark judged by his head 2^nd at Catterick where the winner has since been placed off 114, and the race at Doncaster where he fell at the last where he would have beaten horses rated 5-10lbs better. His recent runs have been less encouraging but they were both tough asks and they look to have helped create a bit of value. He also has the aid of a 7lb claimer to ease the burden from top weight. Others I am slightly wary of are Double Chocolate who won off a slightly lower mark over 22f here at Fontwell but that race looked very weak with the 2^nd & 3^rd placed horses coming back off of long lay offs and tiring up the hill, and at 7/2 I think he is too short. The other one is El Diego who isn’t a great jumper and has been in poor form for his last couple of runs, but seems to prefer this trip and also the sounder surface. Sedgefield 300 – Sam Patch .5pts EW 8/1 Bet365 & Mister Bloom 1pt Win 5/1 Bet365 This is an interesting looking race with a few horses that could win. Oh Right is a worth favourite on form splitting 80-90 rated rivals the last couple of times over fences but this is his 3^rd race in 10 days and also a step up in trip (best form is at shorter) and because of that I will look elsewhere. Frosty Lad is the 2^nd favourite and improved from nowhere to win his last race. Im not sure what to make of that race (although he did beat Mister Bloom) but the trainer says that the horse is difficult to catch right which is enough for me to not have a bet until the day horses learn to talk and can tell me they are up for it. Barr Head is one with potential improvement in him and 10/1 could look massive tomorrow, but he has a tendency to jump right and I don’t know what the form amounts to. Of my selections Sam Patch is an interesting one. His run at Musselbrough was encouraging as he split 90 rated rivals. He was disappointing NTO which has be questioning how valid that form us, but with only 3 chase starts to his name, I am willing to have a speculative punt that he may improve. He is currently 8-1 but that feels a little short and will probably drift in the morning so may be worth waiting for. Mister Bloom is my main shout and like a couple of the others be has been placed amongst better horses and having lost by ½ length to a 90 rated rival (who has placed off the mark twice after). LTO was his first run on good ground and he seemed to improve for it, so I am hoping for more of the same tomorrow. 430 – Rey Nacardo 7/2 & Belleflower Boy 9/4 3pt Win Bet365 Both of these look ahead of their marks and should have the quality to win this race. Im not a fan of short prices but these look warranted. One that might intrigue me in the morning is Esme Rides A Gaine who is ahead of his mark but has to shoulder being 19lb wrong. Might be worth an EW but probably not. 500 – Plunkett 1pt Win Looks on a good mark based on last season’s good ground form and hopefully the surface will bring the best out of him having been below par on soft more recently.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps - Tuesday April 3rd *LORD LUSO - Sedgefield 5:30* Trainer has not trained a bumper winner in 5 years and the horse has not completed its last 4 points starts, but i find it interesting that James Reveley has been booked to ride and there has been support for the horse in the market which i find bemusing as the statistics say the horse won't win. Kirby's horses are all running well at present and he does well at Sedgefield and when Reveley rides for him at Sedgefield, he has had 10 rides resulting in 2 winners and a profit of +£8.00 to level stakes. Reveley himself is in form with 3 winners from his last 10 rides and he has a fantastic record at Sedgefield with 17 winners from 110 rides resulting in a profit of +£25.96 to level stakes. Will take a punt on this unknown quantity. *1 Point WIN @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG*