Monday 2nd April - Jumps Racing

[Blazing Bailey]

Kelso 330 – Soul Magic 5/1 2pt Win Bet365 This is only a 5 runner chase but I think the first two in the market are plenty short enough which has created some value for my selection who I think has a bit in hand judged on the form of a couple of his previous wins and slightly more recent 2^nd. He finished 5^th back from his winter break LTO and should be spot on for this. He has won at the class & distance and while the favourite (The Thirsty Bricky) is on an upward curve, he is up 10lb and all his form has been on softer ground. The 2^nd favourite (Kai Broon) is only making his second chase start and is certainly unexposed in this sphere but its hard to know how good he is judged on his debut in a 3 runner field. If that form is taken at face value then he should be well in here but at the prices I am happy to take him on. 500 – Rudemeister 4/1 1pt Win Boylesports Quite simply this is an average contest where several runners have question marks either over current form on the race conditions. I think this fellow is probably on a decent mark, and while the step down in trip probably isn’t ideal, he is also down in grade and could get his neck in front. 530 – Stick Together 4/1 1pt Win – Boylesports Again this is another average contest with question marks over several runners. While the selection’s overall record isn’t inspiring this distance will probably suit her down to the ground (Staying on over shorter & tiring over further) and because of that we will probably see some improvement. I think her mark is fair for what she has achieved but hopefully the anticipated improvement at this distance will make the difference, although I am a little wary that this is a rise in class for her.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Monday 2nd April - Jumps Racing [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD][h=1]Tip Detail[/h][/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Kelso 5:00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Seedless (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 02/04/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] BetVictor @ 6.50 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Good hurdler with 3 wins and 3 seconds from 14 starts. She's been doing well since 2011 having ran 9 times for 3 wins and 3 seconds. She won last time out by 1 1/4 lengths at Bangor. It was a small field with only 3 runners in total and she defeated the 4/7 favoite Lucky Mix. That win was off a rating of 115 and that is the same as today. She was joint top-weight LTO at 11-12 and carries less today with 11-7. Jason Maguire is booked and he has a form of 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 8th on the selection since 2011. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]