Jumps - April 1st

[Blazing Bailey]

Ascot 330 – Clarion Call 15/2 2pt Win BetVictor & Orthodox Lad 11/1 1pt Win BetVictor This is a competitive looking race where I think 5 of them have realistic chances. The favourite Lexi’s Boy looks very short for what he has achieved and I imagine anyone backing the horse is hoping for the better ground to bring about more improvement, which I personally wouldn’t be confident of, especially not at the price! Creekside looks an improving type and I think his mark is about right, with the potential of quicker ground possibly helping out. For me though he is a bit quirky and again Im not confident that we will see the necessary improvement needed to win this. Both of the two I have picked look to be a couple of pounds ahead of their mark judged on the form of a couple of their previous runs and they both look as if this ground will be a plus. Orthodox Lad is on the drift a little which worries me and hence only the 1pt win but if all is well I think they both have a cracking chance at a good price. 405 – Fix The Rib 7/2 1pt Win Stan James & Cool Friend 7/2 1pt Win Bet365 This isn’t a great race in my mind and I simply think that these two have a little more to offer from their marks than the rest of the field. Fix The Rib looks to need a positive ride which he didn’t get at Newbury LTO and I suspect this mark will prove lenient. Cool Friend is a very game horse and was the only horse in the field to give Hunt Ball a race over a little further at Kempton & then going on to win at Sandown. Her mark hasn’t gone up too much and she might just be able to get her head in front again before the handicapper takes charge. 515 – Joseph Lister 16/1 0.5pt EW BetVictor, Imperial Circus 13/2 1pt Win Stan James & Kasbaldi 15/2 1pt Win BetVictor. This is a competitive race in my eyes with a few horses that have a solid chance of getting their head in front. Joseph Lister has been a little disappointing for such a powerful yard but there is a good chance the step up in distance and better ground will bring about some improvement. I have him fairly weighted at the moment so if these conditions do suit then I think he has a frame chance. Imperial Circus was not beaten that far LTO and would have been a lot closer if he had jumped the last better. The handicapper has increased his mark by 3lbs but that should be offset by the 3lb claimer on board for today’s race so should have a decent chance. Kasabaldi looks to have a couple of pounds in hand from my workings. He only just beat Whispering Jack who re-opposes today over a shorter trip, but while my selection has improved since then, the latter has gone backwards (albeit possibly down to ground etc). Obviously that means that WJ is much better weighted now BUT his 24f form isn’t as good as Kasabaldi’s and while I notice WJ has been well back over night, I still think my selection has the better chance. Of the others, Phare Isle looks to have a chance but has a poor win record and looks to be easily beaten by a more game horse & Tarvini looks to be a danger but Im not sure what he has beaten and his mark may over estimate him. Promishing Anshan could also be a danger back over hurdles but I would rather watch on this occasion.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jumps - April 1st

CREEKSIDE 3.30 Ascot. 1 point win. Willing to ignore previous runs and take his debut form as literal. Goes handicapping now and his mark appears decent on debut effort. Trip and ground fine and should be capable of winning this. 6/1 Boylesports BOG