TazaD Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 One team scores 10 points in the last 1/4 to blow an over by 4 points...and it wasn't the team with an injured superstar....who'd have thunk it, huh! :wall Madness...No wonder I swore off totals for so long. :@ ...but I'm a sucker for punishment, so... SA @ Seattle over 189.5 Last meeting in Seattle was 113-94 on Nov 7. SA 96-102 @ home Dec 8...and Seattle games av. 12.2. more ppg @ home. Seattle have topped 100 in 10 of their last 11 home games...av. 107.5. I can only assume that the total is this low because people ae expecting the SA D too shut down Seattle, but SA are 27th in the NBA for 3 point D, and now no Nesterovic means the middle is open for easier inside scoring....SA have allowed 93.5 in the last 5 games compared to 86.0 for the whole season. Seattle are 5-1 over one 2 days rest, scoring 105 ppg and allowing 100. Seattle shoot well, Duncan should have a big game on a soft Seattle inside D....much like the other 2 games really. :ok Got one more total I'm too scared to play (Memphis @ NO over), and waiting for a line in the Atl v. Orlando game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evtherev Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: NBA Monday tonight the system has spat out: Orlando under 51 Memphis over 44 Currently going 8-0 so im expecting a bad night soon.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 31, 2005 Author Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: NBA Monday Orlando -5 League: 18-8-1 (Av. win 12.0) away 5+ fav, 1+ days off 10+ ats win as away 5+ dog. [Orl] 7-2-1 (9-0-1 this no...Av. win 15.0!) if opp off any ats win. Atlanta are a lowly 3-13 on 1 day rest with an av. loss of 10.9...Orlando score 102 ppg on 1 day rest, they simply should score too many for Atlanta to keep up. Love getting 5, was expecting 6 or 7....Hill will play and Cato back also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lic Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: NBA Monday I will take Philadelphia vs. Indiana, where the Sixers will win the game. Iverson returns, and with Allan - after the surprise win at Dallas - they'll beat the Pacers. Bet Philadelphia -1.5 hendicap (1.9 at Sportingbet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Arsenal_ Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: NBA Monday TazaD , are you from Australia ? when do you post the picks , some are quite late in night ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 31, 2005 Author Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: NBA Monday Yep...In Australia, speedclear. Last games usually finish here @ 4.30 -5 pm....will usually post any time b/w then and bed time ;) ...Some game tho that are OTB don't get lines until midday Eastern US time...which just happens to be 4 am here!...Obviously I'm not likely to post those games until between when I get up and game time. Will usually get up and check if I wake up anytime after 4....than back to bed of course! My GF loves my sleeping habits :eyes Lic....be careful of first game back syndrome! Teams who have been performing well without a key player tend to drop the first game he comes back into the team. Not really sure why, but does happen a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: NBA Monday Are you going for the NO over then taz or leaving it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 31, 2005 Author Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: NBA Monday Here's what I've got alien... League: 9-1 over (9-0 over this no...Av. score 198.4) home 5+ dog, 1 day off 10- ats win as 10+ dog, if opp off 10+ ats loss. [NO] Last meeting in Memphis was 84-76.....But NO shot 31.7%, and NO av. 7.8 more points @ home than away. Memphis games av. 13.2 more points on the road!...Giving an 'extra' 21 points!! :eek BUT....1) The 'trends' don't seem to be very reliable for NBA totals....and; 2) This game sets up much like the Houston game in NO....They had a game in Houston that was 81-89. Hoston (like Memphis) av. nearly 12 extra points away, yet the return game @ NO was 77-82! NO shot 43.2% and scored 77!!!! :eek ...Must have been a painfully slow game. The Philli @ NO game ended 87-87 in reg (spot on 174 obviously!). Memphis score slighly more than Philli on the road,m but also allow a bit less. I don't really trust NO to score, and think it will be close either way....Although it seems someone likes the over, the total has ticked up to 174.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: NBA Monday Sounds like a dodger then. I might try a little on it as it'll be gutting if it comes in ! Keep up the good work dude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 1, 2005 Author Share Posted February 1, 2005 Re: NBA Monday Not sure I could be any unluckier. Last 3 bets have had 1/4's of 10, 12 and 13. ****ing rediculous. Ray Allen misses the game with flu, Seattle shoot only 4 3 pointers, have a 1/4 of 12 points and miss the over by 3 points. ****en hate shit like this. :@ ...bad run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evtherev Posted February 1, 2005 Share Posted February 1, 2005 Re: NBA Monday lol i think you were right when you were staying away from totals....you just arent getting any luck at all. Both system bets win and the system moves to 10-0, will be selling it on ebay soon :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW1970 Posted February 1, 2005 Share Posted February 1, 2005 Re: NBA Monday Unlucky Taza. Keep going, we all have bad runs. Suppose San Antonio are always liable to shut down another team's offense, being top for points allowed in the whole NBA. Still close, even with Allen's absence. To rub it in, I suppose you didn't do Mem v NO over, either? Easily over, when all but you suspected an under. You are obviously doing something right. As for you Ev, now everyone is interested in your system!! Are you going to give us a clue on it? I don't expect you to give the whole thing away, after all you have developed it. Good luck to you, mate. One thing that doesn't seem to be discussed here, is Totesport's 'Highest Scoring Game' bet, which they regularly put prices up for (but not every day). I have found it a very interesting thing to analyse. Obviously you can be unlucky with overtime games, etc, but I find a good amount of success can be had. They often offer each way terms on the first 2 or 3, too, so well worth looking at. As and when the prices are published, maybe we should have a little discussion on possible winners. Without wishing to be accused of after eventing, I am going 9-6 on this this season, with a 70% yield on bets made. Tote are not the sharpest tools in the box, so it only seems fair to take advantage of this if we can spot the 'good things'. Last night for instance, they had Atlanta v Orlando at 7/4 favourite. Boston v Houston was 3/1, Indiana v Philadelphia 4/1, San Antonio v Seattle 9/2, and the other two games 10/1 or over. By game time, Boston v Houston totals line was 200, Atlanta v Orlando 199.5, so an obvious discrepancy in their prices, there. Any thoughts? Anyone had a bet on this before? Is it a stab in the dark, predicting this kind of thing? Now we are all into totals, maybe it's something worth investigating.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evtherev Posted February 1, 2005 Share Posted February 1, 2005 Re: NBA Monday lol my "system" is pretty simple, infact hardly a system at all. Im sure everyone could figure it out, just in time for the losing run :D Ev Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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