Jump Racing; Thursday 29th March

[Lars]

MR CRYSTAL (16:50) is untried at the 3 mile trip but on his flat form it should be well within range and he’s constantly shaped this season that it’s worth a go, he finally gets it today on what is his ideal ground and he’s severely overpriced, even in this quite tough contest. A winner over 2m6f on the flat at Pontefract on fast ground, he’s not been at his best in all bar one of his starts over fences this season. The best of those efforts came on his first national hunt start of the season, when finishing 4^th over 2m5f in a listed contest at Wetherby. He stayed on well that day and although he was 8 ½ lengths behind the winner, there looked to be more to come off his mark of 119. A subsequent pulling up when running at Ascot can be explained by a terrible blunder, never travelling after. His mark has been allowed to fall another 2lbs after two moderate efforts over distances around the 2m4f mark. They were both on soft ground, which isn’t ideal at all. The vast majority of his best form on the flat and jumps came on good or quick ground and he just doesn’t go that well on attesting surface, so to do as well as him when last seen in January over a sharp 2m3f, needs upgrading a notch. A mark of 115 looks exploitable now, returning to quick ground and the step up to 3 miles looks needed. He shouldn’t have many problems in staying the extra distance and is a big player off this mark, especially as he’d shaped like he could plausibly run to 125 in the not so distant past over an extended trip. Micky Hammond is in good form, having had two winners in the last week and Mr Crystal looks very much overpriced at the 8/1 mark and I feel he should be around the 4/1 or 9/2 mark. He would usually be a 3pt bet in terms of value for me but I’m feeling a little bit cautious, especially as this is potentially a very decent contest. A couple look up to further progression, such as Fabalu with headgear having a positive effect last time, and Beneficial Reform, who gets his ideal ground and could still be on a good mark. They’re both towards the front of the market and may prove to be tough to crack, but Mr Crystal shouldn’t be overlooked at these prices, especially as there is potentially plenty more to come over this trip/on this ground for an in-form yard and a small/medium sized bet will suffice. 16:50 Newcastle – Mr Crystal; 2pts @ 8/1 Paddy Power (bog)

[Edberg]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 29th March 2:20 » Ffos Las THU 29 MAR 2012 VICTORIAN HOUSE WINDOW GROUP MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £2,599 Good 2m4f Number of runners: 16 KEEP KICKING 4pts to win @ 6/4 bog (Bet365 and many more) First race of the afternoon at Ffos Las and it's a maiden hurdle with two Jonjo O'Neill-trained horses dominating the betting: Keep Kicking and Balinroab. Jonjo O'Neill's yard are in top form (two wins at Ffos Las last week after the historic success in the Gold Cup) and they do very well here (22% strike rate in the last 5 years at Ffos Las). AP McCoy will be on Keep Kicking and that gives a clear signal about who stands the best chance but also for what we've seen so far the McCarthy-owned 5yo looks clearly the one to beat. Keep Kicking won a bumper one year ago and finished a close second in his second bumper last November beaten 1L by Circular Quay who ran at the Weatherbys Champion Bumper of the Cheltenham Festival two weeks. In January Tiger Hill made his debut over hurdles but had surely problems that day as he finished tailed off and that was clearly proven 4 weeks ago when the gelding came back at Sandown to finish second in a novices' hurdle behind a good horse, Claret Cloak who won again next time out and is now rated 133. Keep Kicking beat that day Top Of The Range a Nicky Henderson-trained 5yo who was the odds-on favourite of that race after he had won his bumper, his maiden and finished 4th in a Group 1 at Newbury behind Fingal Bay. Well there is nothing better than this form on offer in this race and Keep Kicking seems to me a strong favourite. Balinroab is the other 5yo gelding trained by Jonjo O'Neill and will have Richie McLernon on board today. The son of Milan won an Irish PTP one year ago and had already three starts under rules, improving each time up to finish second 3L behind Prima Porta last time out at Southwell. AP McCoy was on him both for his bumper debut and last time out so he knows him pretty well and as written above his choice to ride Keep Kicking underlines who is the best chance between the two. Some interest there is to see how shapes And He's Dreaming a 6yo trained by Tim Vaughan who was disqualified (wrong course) when 3rd on his debut in a bumper at Perth last August and finished second in October in another bumper at Worcester as both times he was very well supported in the betting (favourite first time out and second favourite at Worcester). Still a lot to prove. Another interesting contender is Weekend Millionair, a 5yo trained by David Pipe who was a decent horse on flat (rated 74) when trained by David Evans and after a disappointing performance first time out at Market Rasen two months ago (9th of 14) the chestnut gelding shaped a bit better at Taunton 4 weeks ago in his second try over hurdles (4th of 11). If able to build on that performance he could be in the mix. Peter Bowen saddles another interesting horse that is Magic Show, an 8yo who won twice on the flat (rated 75) in 2007 and came back on track 3 years later for his hurdles debut at Exeter in October 2010 (8th of 10). After another long absence Magic Show shaped with some promise 11 days ago in his second ever out over obstacles when finished 5th of 15 at Newton Abbot over 2m1f and that day he shaped as today's longer trip could help. The only other horse who stands a little chance for what we've seen so far is Jayandbee who represents Philip Hobbs' stable and will have the in-form Tom O'Brien on board (7 wins in the last fortnight for the jockey). The 5yo was third in a Chepstow bumper in October but was very disappointing at Sandown the following month(9th). He made his hurdles debut at Wincanton (over today's distance) 3 weeks ago saw and finished sixth, tailed off but probably the ground was too soft and this return to firmer ground could help him. Not easy to analyze a maiden with so many question marks and doubts about most of the runners but this runner saddled by Jonjo O'Neill with the champion jockey on board seems to me a very strong favourite in this race. « 2:50 » Ffos Las THU 29 MAR 2012 DIGIBET.COM HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £2,599 Good 3m Number of runners: 10 PRESENTED 2pts to win @ 4/1 bog (William Hill and many more) This time I'll go against the favourite again representing the duo Jonjo O'Neill-AP McCoy as I see more value in Presented a 5yo who represents the small Graeme McPherson's yard. The horse is a former Irish PTP winner (on good) and struggled during this winter in his first season over hurdles under rules but had mainly to race on ground from soft to heavy. However last time out he made his debut in the handicap sphere and was well supported justifying that with a solid performance to finish just a short head behind the winner at Hereford over 2m7f on soft ground. Better ground and one furlong will surely help and the 7lb more to carry shouldn't be a big problem as the form of that race reads very well at this level. The winner Medic Man was upped 10lb and still was a good 2nd of 15 next time out upped in class at Newton Abbot, Venetia Williams-trained Bennys Mist (3rd 11L behind Presented that day) was just 1/2L behind the winner next time out, Western Kate (44L behind Presented that day) bolted up next time out (beating Medic Man at Newton Abbot) and was a strong favourite two days ago at Hereford but slipped after a jump (Evens money favourite even if carrying a 7lb penalty) and Himayna (57L behind Presented that day) was last of 19 runners in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle (Grade 2) won by Quevega at the Cheltenham Festival on her next start. McPherson is having his best ever season (11 winners so far is his new personal best) and the last runner he saddled was a winner at Southwell 10 days ago. Molloy was riding that winner and 5 more during this 2011-12 campaign and the 3lb conditional jockey was on two more McPherson's horses that finished 2nd (a 33/1 chance) and 4th (a 16/1 chance) at Uttoxeter 12 days ago. Let's have a look at Presented's main opponents in this race. First of all we have once again Medic Man who beat Presented last time out and as written above finished second 11L behind Western Kate in his next start off 10lb higher. The Gardners' horse should stay this far but it's hard to believe he can confirm that form with Presented off 3lb worse terms but he's surely a strong contender once again. As written above the favourite is Mission Complete who represents Jonjo O'Neill and will be ridden by AP McCoy wearing the colours of JP McManus. The 6yo son of Milan improved a lot this year (pretty disappointing in his first 4 starts last spring) and won already three times in handicap finishing second two more times in his last 5 starts. His handicap mark has gone from 85 (when he won his first handicap at Stratford at the end of October to 114 (today) and last time out (off 110) he finished 3 1/2L behind Knockando at Wetherby over 3m1f with 3lb conditional jockey Mr Berry on board so the horse is actually today off a 7lb higher mark. Lucinda Russell-trained Knockando was very disappointing next time out when beaten 102L (11th of 13 starters) at Carlisle (off a 12lb higher mark) while behind Mission Complete that day there were two horses (Andreo Bambaleo and Oniz Tiptoes) who both failed in their following start but improved a bit last time out finishing both seconds (off a lower mark). So surely a good form and a strong stayer who should be a good chaser next season but Mission Complete looks more exposed and I guess Presented can prove to have more room for improvements in him than Mission Complete at this stage. Among the other runners one could find good reasons to support two horses. Peter Bowen-trained Derwen Pryde won her first two starts in handicaps over 3m in November and her 4th here at Ffos Las over a shorter trip was again improved thanks to her last time out second at Ludlow when upped again to a 3m trip. Still she looks way more exposed than my selection at this stage of her career. Dingat is a mistery since he never ran in the last 513 days but he was a decent horse in 2010 and the duo Tim Vaughan-Richard Johnson is surely a connection to be scared about when they present a horse after a long break. Still he didn't look to stay when upped to 3m and it's impossible to trust before we see what he is able to offer even if he'll be racing off a 5lb lower mark than last time out. So it seems like Medic Man and Mission Complete are the main dangers and for the reasons exposed above I rate my selection with a better chance than these two and at 4/1 Presented is my bet in this race. « 4:30 » Ffos Las THU 29 MAR 2012 GW OF ST CLEARS HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-130) Winner £4,549 Good 2m4f Number of runners: 13 LAVA LAMP 2pts to win @ 6/1 bog (Betvictor) Lava Lamp is a German-bred 5yo who had a decent career on flat (2 wins and 2 seconds in 13 starts and rated up to 75) and was highly regarded by his trainer since he made his debut over hurdles 13 months ago soon in a Grade 2 at Kempton when finished 5th of 9 beaten 30L by Zarkandar who won two Grade 1s in his next two starts (the Triumph at Cheltenham and the Juvenile Hurdles at Aintree) and is now rateed 163 beaten also by horses like Molotof (who failed in the last two Cheltenham Festival starts but won his other 3 starts and is rated 145) and Kumbeshwar rated 140 over hurdles (3 times second in Grade 1s after that race) and 145 over fences (3rd in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival two weeks ago). Useless to say that's a very strong form indeed. Lava Lamp won a maiden at Plumpton in his next start but didn't improve as expectet and was 2nd-2nd-3rd-4th in his 4 next starts in novices' hurdles before the summer break. Back on track last October the level of Lava Lamp's performances seemed to improve but just a little bit as he finished 4th first time out and 2nd next time out in two more novices' hurdles. A long break and the son of Shamardal came back on track only 12 days ago here at Ffos Las in a similar race (class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m4f on soft ground) and he bolted up winning by 6L going away in the last couple of furlongs after a very patient ride given by Adam Wedge. He's just a little horse and has little to do with that top company he was facing first time out one year ago but should have more improvements in him and over same C&D facing just a 7lb higher mark he should be able to perform very well again as the faster ground (won even on good to firm) won't surely be a problem. Evan Williams is enjoying the best period of the season as he saddled 2 winners yesterday, 1 on Tuesday, another on Sunday, and 6 more one week ago and Adam Wedge was riding 3 of them. The favourite of the race is Decoy who represents David Pipe's yard. The horse won both on flat and over hurdles in France but struggled a lot before finding his level in UK. 9th-4th-11th-7th-4th in his first 5 starts in UK in the first part of 2011 before finishing a close second at Newton Abbot last May in a handicap hurdle off 118. After the summer break he wore first-time blinkers when finally off the mark in UK winning a good handicap at Cheltenham over 2m5f (good ground) last November off 122 and was second one week later at Ascot (strong favourite that day) racing again off the same mark. Decoy came back two months later racing off his new mark of 129 in the Lanzarote at Kempton when he was among the favourites but failed finishing 15th of 19 starters 80L behind the winner Swincombe Flame. Little changed last month when 8th at Doncaster over 3m1f off 128. Maybe the trip was too far for him last time out but I guess his mark (still 127 atm) could be a bit beyond his actual limit (moreover with Tom Scudamore on board he loses also the 3lb claim he had when partnered with Conor O'Farrell in both his win and close second last November so he's actually off an 8lb higher mark atm). He surely deserves a lot of credits based on his two strong performances and represents a top-yard that has been in red-hot form after the Cheltenham Festival but his price is too short for me atm. Mountainous is a specialist of the track. The Nigel Twiston-Davies 7yo has had his first 4 races under rules all here at Ffos Las where he won his first two handicaps over 2m and over today's distance of 2mf4f. He finished 7th at Ascot in his following out (40 days ago) after those two wins but more than his new mark of 127 (won off 108 and 120) the problem could have been a tougher company (that race was won by Bourne over Smad Place and Swincombe Flame) so this 7yo son of Milan stands a very strong chance in this field back to his beloved track. Tickatack represents the McPherson's yard (I talked about for my pick about Presented). He's a former PTP winner (last March) who made a succesful debut in handicap winning at Southwell in January and was a good second in his following start at Newbury 26 days ago. He has to face another 7lb rise today but looks still improving and could be there or thereabout. Glenstal Abbey represents the trio O'Neill-McCoy-McManus but his form is terrible (10th-10th-F-PU-11th-F-PU-REF-6th-5th) and even if he showed little improvements in his last two starts (2nd and 3rd since joined Jonjo O'Neill) he should be back to the best form he showed when with Charlie Swan 2 years ago (3 wins in 2009-10) to stand a chance in this race. The last main danger is surely Persian Snow who had a couple of disappointing starts before shaping better in his last two outs when he finished second at Sandown and won at Huntingdon 25 days ago when he was a 4/7 favourite. The 6yo faces a way tougher test here but can't be scratched as he has good form on this ground (3rd in bumper) and represents another top yard (Philip Hobbs) with a top in-form jockey on board (Richard Johnson who has collected 5 wins and 3 seconds with his last 9 raiders in the last 2 days). Tough contest with a lot of good horses most of them with recent good form and probably a lot of them could still be improving but I'd like to give a chance to Lava Lamp who impressed me with the way he won going away in the last couple of furlongs last time out even if this is a tougher test but for such an in-form yard there could be more to come from this 5yo. « 5:05 » Ffos Las THU 29 MAR 2012 LLEWELLYN HUMPHREYS NOVICES´ HUNTERS´ CHASE (CLASS 6) (5yo+) Winner £1,317 Good 2m5f Number of runners: 16 RUMBURY GREY 4pts to win @ 6/4 bog (Paddy Power and many more) This is a crowded hunters' chase but I see little quality in it and top weight Rumbury Grey looks way better that these horses. The 9yo grey trained by Flook was off for more than two years but made a convincing debut at the age of 9 under rules to win twice at Leicester 6 weeks ago over 2m5f beating the odds-on favourite Galway Jack by a neck and 3 weeks ago again a Leicester but over 3m to beat again the same horse by 2L. Special Portrait shape well from behind to finish third that day and he bolted up next time out winning at Carlisle by 19L in his next start 11 days ago. Rumbury Grey jumped in both those races really well and stays all the day long and both times was ridden by Mr Jackett who is back in his saddle today so they are going for a hattrick in what looks a way easier contest imho. The main danger is Benedictus who won 4 times in 13 starts in PTP and won his last two outs in that sphere. Still he beat just two horses in his last start and has a lot to prove in his debut under rules. Dunshane has a collateral line that puts him almost on the same level of Benedictus and has a bigger experience under rules. The 6yo won a maiden PTP for this trainer and had a couple of good efforts (2nd and 4th) last summer with Evan Williams. After 3 disappointing efforts he was second last time out at Stratford and could improve. Interpleader won three PTP last spring and finished second and third in his last two starts in that sphere but has a lot to prove at this level (quite a poor hurdler under rules in Ireland 2 years ago). Many more have decent form mainly in PTP such as Dollydo (two wins in PTP), Openditch (won last time out), John Clayton (won his second last start in PTP and finished second before and after that win) and Billy Cuckoo (won his second last PTP and was third last time out 3L adrift of John Clayton) but none of them makes special appeal.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 29th March

George My Friend 4.20 Newcastle. 0.5 points each way. Needs to find a bit, but showed better last time and now goes into a handicap off a mark of 92. The mark appears fair and with slightly more improvement on ground that looks sure to suit, he does look a big price to hit the frame. Pace of the race should suit him and so each way claims if improving again. 40/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 29th March

MR CRYSTAL 4.50 Newcastle. 1 point win. Ground not ideal recently, but this faster ground should suit better and he does get in off a decent enough mark. Goes up in trip which could bring about some improvement, and if that's the case then he can win this. Not a strong race and every chance. 7/2 Betfred BOG