FLAT RACING TUES 27TH MARCH

[richard-westwood]

JUST ONE BET TODAY ....... 3.30 south just one horse race this FIRST IN COMMAND (89)broke the clock on the bridle last time out and penalty shouldnt stop him going in again against weak oppostion .bet365 offering 11/8 which is in fact value as i expect it to go off evens or worse so 2pts win

[chris34]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 27TH MARCH 2.30 Southwell Myraid appeared to improve out of knowhere last time out, perhaps the drop in trip was the key. Out of the handicap by a 1lb today and wouldnt be the most obvious one to follow that effort up given overall profile and lack of a win to his name as of yet. Funky Munky won when last seen on the flat in heavy ground at Ayr, 6lb higher and 2 runs here have been well below that effort and that is the worry here aswell as recent efforts over hurdles uninspiring. Takhreej attracted a huge amount of market support on handicap debut for this yard, ran dreadfully that day, no better over hurdles and change of surface needs to spark major improvements. Mataajir has been given a freshen up having rattled off a hatrick earlier in the AW season including over CD, ran well off career high marks since without looking a major threat. Has always looked better when able to dominate and that looks unlikely in this field and draw is a bit of a stumbling block aswell. Has attracted a lot of market support tonight. Caledonia Prince is another that has been running credibly off a career high mark last 2 starts and remains 10lb higher than that win 3 starts back but Fanning on board and riding out of his skin but again unlikely to get a soft lead or easy time up front. General Tufto is a great servant around here and tends to win a little out of the blue, but he has been holding his form a lot better than his form figures suggest since his last win. He needs a very honest gallop around here and it could be run to suit with Mataajir, Caledonia Prince and Community all can be ridden prominently and could set this up. He has won 10 times around here and is now only 3lb above last winning mark and has won off much highers marks in the past and would be dangerous to dismiss in this field at a price. 1pt e/w General Tufto 14/1 vc 3.30 Southwell Not the strongest race a for a 5f sprint handicap over this CD. A very short price favourite that should take all the beating but wouldnt be one you can totally trust in my opinion at 6/5. He duly bolted up winning cosily last time out but just watching those races he has won hard held in what were perhaps bad races and with him being so well treated but when he met another rival that was well handicapped Canadian Danehill 3 starts back and was asked to make a move he didnt appear to go through totally with the effort or find a lot when asked which is my concern at such a short price should something take him on. He is still well treated potentially and 2lb well in here. Magic of Rio has now ran 2 good races over CD this winter including last time out when comfortably held by First In Command and although a 5lb might not make much difference she does appear a little more game in a battle and should she be able to build on her recent effort again she is dangerously handicapped on her 2yr old form having won off 84 now rated just 45 and clearly offers a nice e/w bet. It will be interesting to see how Lesleys Choice gets on given he was subject to a big gamble before being withdrawn last week, they have priced him up accordingly this week has still attracted some money, had a desperate season last year but last won a handicap off a mark of 87 over CD now running off 60 but cant be backed at current price without knowing something. 1pt e/w Magic Of Rio 15/2 bet365 5.00 Southwell A chance is taken on a horse handling the fibresand on first try. Lady Bluesky might be a good thing in this handicap, she ran with credit throughout the flat season last year and has since made the switch back to hurdles recently a winning one on penultimate start before unseating when clearly going on to win last time out off a mark of 117 so looks well treated back on the flat off a mark of 63 which is actually a 1lb below her last handicap winning mark. She is very consistent and game which counts for a lot on this surface and put that with the fact she loves heavy/soft ground on turf which usually translates well here. Sire stats dont offer much 22 runs 1 win 5 placed efforts so not hopeless. Of the rest, Ice And Fire hasnt been seen for nearly 3 years and makes a return as a 13yr old seems a slap at desperation? Polly Holder only has a poor classified win to her name and she has had 2 runs well spaced out and now makes a quick return 10 days later so bounce factor a worry and doesnt look particularly well handicapped but has run here once and that was a promising 2nd so not without hope but a bit of a risk. Carnac appeared to go off the boil has since had a short break but doesnt look handicapped to win at present neither. Kishanda won a desperate 4 runner apprentice maiden on new years day over 11f around here, has since been well held at Lingfield back in handicaps up to 13f and was last seen pulled up over jumps and has something to prove for now stepped up in trip and had plenty of chances of this sort of mark previously. River Dragon was well held in a CD Jumper Bumper on penultimate start and although not beaten far when last seen over in a handicap in December he often doesnt look to be enjoying the fibresand experienced looks to be very hard ride so niggling concern he doesnt handle the surface. Ran a promising race when last seen over hurdles though staying on strongly but again not looking straightforward and in what might be a tactical affair he may just lack the commitment to get involved when required. 4pt win Lady Bluesky (took 9/4 bet365 now best price 7/4)