jump racing 13/2/2012

[beaker1]

WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE A fantastic race for the Irish in that this has easily been their most successful race at the Festival (won 8 of the last 13 runnings) registering six more victories than any other going back to 1977 and they are represented by 8 of the 19 runners namely Steps To Freedom, Galileo’s Choice, Midnight Game, Trifolium, Allure Of Illusion, Dylan Ross, Distant Memories and Simenon. The powerhouse stables of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have led the home defence with a couple of winners apiece. Twenty years have now have passed since Henderson’s last Supreme winner and he has sent a hatful with leading claims during that time including last season’s runner-up and third. Darlan and Tetlami represent him this time. Nicholls is represented by Prospect Wells and Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride which is surprising as I would have though he would have plumped for one of the three Willie Mullins horses. No one race stands out as a major guide but the Royal Bond and last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper have each thrown up a couple of Supreme winners in the last ten years. This season’s Royal Bond saw Galileo’s Choice finish second with Midnight Game well beaten but the testing ground would have been against him. Cinders And Ashes looks best set to represent last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper where he finished fifth last year not getting home but McCain says he is twice the physical specimen this season. Backing a last-time-out winner has been the way to go as 13 of the last 15 winners had won on the previous start which is the big stat against Darlan who fell last time out. Last-time-out fallers generally don’t win at the Festival though Henderson reports him none the worse for it. Other horses beaten last time out were Catch Timmy, Colour Squadron (also fell), Distant Memories, Dylan Ross, Hazy Tom, Jimbill, Prospect Wells, Simenon and Vulcanite. There wasn’t much between the winning records of NH-breds and ex-Flat horses up until fairly recently where they shared out renewals of the Supreme fairly evenly but, since a policy was put in force by course officials to provide good-to-soft ground for the opening-day, the NH-bred horses have started to come out on top to the extent they filled the first four places last year following on from successive 1-2-3-4-5’s in 2009 and 2010 which is a big swing. Those that didn’t run in bumpers and therefore might be worth opposing are Galileo’s Choice, Midnight Game, Prospect Wells, Vulcanite, Agent Archie, Distant Memories and Simenon. Rather than the number of runs a novice has had, I am more drawn towards whether they have had a recent prep-race or not. Captain Cee Bee was the big exception winning off the back of an absence of 115 days but every other winner bar French Ballerina (off for 68 days) since 1993 had ran within the previous 45 days which the likes of Cinders And Ashes, Distant Memories, Dylan Ross (that trio only by a week), Jimbill, Midnight Game, Prospect Wells have not. The big failure on this stat is Steps To Freedom who has not run for 123 days since he won here over course and distance. SHORTLIST TETLAMI MONTBAZON TRIFOLIUM (CINDERS AND ASHES) CONCLUSION A very open renewal and only three horses meet the criteria of coming through the bumper route and being a last-time-out winner that had run in the last 45 days so Montbazon, Trifolium and Tetlami pick themselves. As there are 19 runners, I would also add CINDERS AND ASHES as his last run was only a week earlier so, as he looks good on other patterns, it would be churlish therefore not to also consider him especially as he ran well for a long time in last season’s Champion Bumper which has been one of the two races to throw up more than one Supreme winner in the last ten years. MONTBAZON has been working sensationally of late according to Alan King and he may go one better than the same yard’s Medermit in this race three years ago. He won the same novice hurdle at Newbury last time out that two Supreme winners also won since 1995 (including Al Ferof) and looks to be coming right at the ideal time. TETLAMI is actually Flat-bred but never made it to that discipline and is unbeaten in three starts this season and represents a yard with two Supreme winners in the bag. He is professional and unflashy so doesn’t catch the eye like others but he is surely guaranteed to give a very good account and looks a decent each-way shot at a double-figure price. Davy Russell has chosen TRIFOLIUM over Midnight Game of the Gigginstown horses which is not what the betting suggested beforehand and he could just be the best of the Irish having impressed last time out when he won a Grade 2 very easily beating Simenon and previously ran second to the World Hurdle fancy So Young. RACING POST ARKLE TROPHY 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles and five of the six runners fit that bill with something to spare this season; Menorah (162), Al Ferof (154), Blackstairmountain (153), Cue Card (151) and Sprinter Sacre (149). The rank outsider Foil Dubh falls at the first hurdle then but at least he picks up prize money if he completes as they pay down to sixth in the Arkle. You may want to take on board, however, that five of the last 11 Arkle winners were the highest-rated hurdler in the race and that doesn’t include Sizing Europe who was officially the second-best hurdler entering the 2010 running but he had put up the highest figure over hurdles for an individual race over hurdles in his career so that is an extra tick for Menorah. Four of the last five winners had also all won a pattern race over hurdles from less than 25% of contenders just to underline the class angle over timber further still which brings in the last two winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Menorah and Al Ferof, plus Grade 1 winner Blackstairmountain and the Grade 2 novice hurdle winner, Cue Card. Not Sprinter Sacre though, he only ran four times over hurdles. Surprisingly, given that just one of the last 20 winners started at any bigger than 11/1, the Arkle hasn’t been a good race for favourites, far from it in fact, as just two have won during that period so bear that in mind if you take a very short price about Sprinter Sacre. Nicky Henderson’s towering chaser seems sure to be sent off around Evens but do take on board that four of the last five favourites to be sent off at shorter than 2/1 have been beaten (Sybillin (3rd at 4/5), Mulligan (fell at 11/10), Sabin Du Loir (3rd at 5/4) and Decoupage (3rd at 7/4)). Fancied horses still very much hold the call however as 15 of the last 19 winners started either second, third or fourth favourite which brings in Al Ferof, Menorah and Cue Card. As for the best guides, the November Novices’ Chase won by Al Ferof has been responsible for three winners and two seconds since 2002, the Henry VIII Chase also won by Al Ferof has featured two of the last seven Arkle winners and seven of the last Irish-trained winners contested their own Arkle in late January but this year’s winner, Flemenstar, is not entered. Blackstairmountain was fifth. Just one front runner has led since 1980 which may not be ideal for Cue Card if they decide to go from the front with him again which is supposedly the plan Trainer stats to take on board are that three of the big fancies, Sprinter Sacre (Henderson), Al Ferof (Nicholls) and Menorah (Hobbs) all hail from stables with a good record in the race as Henderson has won three Arkles, Nicholls a brace, and Hobbs took last year’s running having also saddled a runner-up and third in two of the previous four runnings. Only two of the last 25 winners failed to finish first or second last time out which is the big sticking point with Menorah who fell last time out. Blackstairmoutain only finished fifth last time out on heavy ground that he couldn’t handle in the Irish Arkle. Al Ferof was third in the Victor Chandler Chase but it would be harsh to oppose the latter for that reason given that he was taking on Champion Chase horses rather than novices. SHORT LIST AL FEROF CUE CARD CONCLUSION Applying all the trends, we are left with nothing so we have to be forgiving with some of the patterns to form a two-horse shortlist in this six runner race. Given the poor record of favourites and the fact he hasn’t won a pattern race over hurdles then we have to take on Sprinter Sacre from a trends perspective. AL FEROF has the stronger trends profile having won two of the key guides, being rated as high as 154 over fences and representing a yard with two winners in the race. The only statistic that CUE CARD falls down on is he is likely to set the pace as front runners have struggled but given this is the smallest Arkle field in history, I would argue that front running could now be an advantage rather than otherwise. The highest rated hurdler in the race, Menorah, has the ability to win a normal Arkle if his jumping stands the test and that is the main concern with him coming off two incompletions this season from four jumps starts and having looked hairy on another occasion. JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE Given the last 12 winners were rated no higher than 143 then it can be argued that the top seven in the handicap have it to do; Quantitativeeasing (155), Noland (148), Hold On Julio (145), Mon Mome (145), Zarrafakt (145), Our Mick (144) and Magnanimity (144). All I would say, however, is that the last four winners were rated 142 or 143 so all bar the top two in the handicap are in the ballpark area and I would only dismiss that pair on ratings stats. That said, given that no winner has defied a handicap mark of 150+ for 29 years, you are taking a massive risk if allying yourself to the possible favourite, Quantitativeeasing. Hold On Julio is trained by Alan King who has been the man to follow in recent seasons with two wins and a close-up third since 2004. Nicky Henderson also has a fine JLT record (a winner and five places from last 11 runners) and runs the novice, Mossley, in addition to Quantitativeeasing. Paul Nicholls, on the other hand, is 0-15 and runs Noland Both Hold On Julio and Quantitativeeasing won last time out and that angle has also been a strong guide of late with six of the last nine winners also successful on their most recent start from approximately 20% representation. The only other last time out winner is Zarrafakt Certainly look to oppose horses over the age of ten as horses aged 11+ are 0-36 to even place since 1997 which means cheerio to Noland, Mon Mome, Mount Oscar and Runshan. At the other end of the experience scale, novices have won three of the last eight runnings and that would very likely have been four but for Bensalem’s penultimate-fence fall two years ago, though that is always the downside risk when supporting a novice of course. Novices lining up this year are Our Mick, Mossley, Bottman, Baile Anrai and Pentiffic. Previous Festival form is a big factor for many punters during the week and, of all the handicaps to be run over these four days, it is this three-mile chase where previous Festival form has had most impact with half of the last 14 winners having previously placed at worst at this meeting in the past. That is a positive for Quantitativeeasing (second in the novice handicap chase), Noland (won Supreme and third in Arkle), Mon Mome (third in Gold Cup), Tullamore Dew (second Coral Cup and third in the novice handicap chase), Mossley (second in Albert Bartlett) and The Package (second in this race two years ago). With only one of the last ten winners failing to finish third or better last time out that counts against Noland, Mon Mome, Magnaninity, Mossley, The Package, Mount Oscar, Baile Anrai, Alfie Sherrin, Bottman, Riguez Dancer, Pentiffic and Runshan. Despite throwing up shock 50/1 and 33/1 winners during the last five years, over a longer period of time this has been a punter-friendly handicap with the other nine winners since 1999 sent off in the first four in the betting. Over an even longer period of time, the second-favourite has a remarkable record winning on eight occasions since 1984. SHORT LIST TULLAMORE DEW ZARRAFAKT BILLIE MAGERN MOSSLEY (HOLD ON JULIO) CONCLUSION TULLAMORE DEW appeals most on patterns as he arrives off a blinding good run, is in the right age and weight bracket and has twice placed at the Festival before in big field handicaps so maybe he can give Nick Gifford his first Cheltenham Festival winner. ZARRAFAKT is one of just three horses to come off a last-time-out win which is a big stat and he also meets the weight and age trends so he also makes the short list and, although he isn’t officially a novice, he is in all but name having only had five chase starts and novices have a terrific recent record in the race. MOSSLEY is a novice and represents Henderson who has a fine record in this handicap and he is in the right area of the handicap and makes some each-way appeal so also makes the short list as does BILLIE MAGERN who is likely to be a big price but he survives all the negative patterns and Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race before. I also include the 145-rated HOLD ON JULIO as he is strong on positive stats being trained by Alan King and being a last time out winner and, as I wrote in my book, I think we should give horses rated just over 143 some leeway (that is the only stat holding him back) as the last four winners were rated only fractionally lower than his mark of 145. STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE I would argue that the single strongest trend for any the four big championship races at the Cheltenham Festival is that 24 of the last 28 winners of the Champion Hurdle also won on their previous start so I can’t advise a better starting point which means that from any trends-based short list we have to overlook over half the field namely Rock On Ruby, Oscars Well, Overturn, Brampour, Celestial Halo and Kalann. Given that the last 17 winners ran during the same calendar year (two of the last three Champion Hurdles favourites and a second-favourite failed on this stat), I would make that the second most important statistic of this race and that doesn’t bode well again for Rock On Ruby or Overturn who were both last seen behind Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. Binocular has won the Kingwell Hurdle since which is an excellent trial and was second to Overturn in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle which is also a very good recent trial but the fact remains that dodgy stat for Binocular, however, is that just one of the last 21 Christmas Hurdle winners to run here has won so he wouldn’t be a trends-based horse for me either. The last three winners were breaking their Cheltenham duck in victory. It had previously seemed to be important to have recorded a course success beforehand but that can surely no longer be viewed as the case but a previous win-or-placed effort at the Festival before can only be viewed as a positive and 17 of the last 26 winners notched up a first-four slot at this meeting 12 months prior to winning the Champion Hurdle which is good news for fans of Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar of the sextet I have not overlooked from a trends perspective so far but is also a positive for Rock On Ruby and Oscars Well. However, Zarkandar is a five-year-old and they are now just 1-87 since 1985 which is more than enough to put me off a win bet but, in fairness, 5yos have a good place record recently as during the last five seasons 16 five-year-olds have gone to post of which five have hit the frame at worst and two more in Crack Away Jack and Starluck weren’t too far away from placing either. Going back to last Festival’s form and the previous year’s running of the Champion Hurdle still rates as the best guide as seven of the last 11 winners finished in the first three 12 months earlier. Only Hurricane Fly of last season’s 1-2-3 takes his chance and he also won last year’s Rabobank Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival which is the joint-best Irish guide alongside the Istabraq Hurdle at Leopardstown where Oscars Well (3rd) is the only representative. The Irish are chasing a ninth victory in the last 14 runnings. SHORT LIST HURRICANE FLY ZAIDPOUR CONCLUSION With half the field not being last-time-out winners and the stats being poor for 5yos (Zarkandar) and the Christmas Hurdle winner (Binocular), that only really leaves HURRICANE FLY of the major fancies that survives the negative patterns and as far I am concerned, he fully deserves his odds-on status and can record his eleventh Grade 1 success. I take the view that this year’s renewal wouldn’t be quite as good as last year’s race and I also thought he won last year’s Champion Hurdle with something up his sleeve. From a trends perspective, the each-way value or betting-without Hurricane Fly could lie with ZAIDPOUR who is a last-time-out winner, the right kind of age and is Irish-trained in a race where they have a great record of late. The fact that Mullins relies on him rather than Thousand Stars as his second string could be interesting and he might be ridden to finish second. What price a Mullins 1-2? GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE If you fancy a British-trained horse, you may want to think again as they have failed to win any of the seven runnings from just over half the total runners. If that is not embarrassing enough, the home ‘defence’ have only secured five place positions and three of those came in the inaugural running in 2005. The Brits this year are Maljimar, Balthazar King, Double Dizzy, Midnight Haze, Fortification, Dream Alliance, Wedger Pardy and Gone To Lunch and are not for me. Supporting a horse in the first three in the betting is an obvious starting point as they have won 12 of the 14 races run over Cheltenham’s cross-country course and also six of the seven runnings of this particular race and I will be surprised if those positions are not taken by Scotsirish, Sizing Australia and Uncle Junior. Enda Bolger has been responsible for a jaw-dropping 15 of the 35 races staged on this particular banks course including four of the seven runnings of this race and Garde Champetre is his only runner this year but he is cracking on now at the age of 13. As for the best guides, the handicap chase won by Garde Champetre in December (when seven horses took the wrong course) has been a stronger pointer than the conditions event in November won by Uncle Junior of the two cross-country races run at Cheltenham earlier in the season leading it 5-3 interms of Festival winners taking part. The best Irish guide run during the same season has been the P.P. Hogan Chase at Punchestown in February having highlighted three winners on the spin between 2006-2008 and saw Scotsirish beat Garde Champetre last month. Of the 35 cross-country races staged at Cheltenham, only Uncle Junior of last 24 was winning on his cross-country debut of any kind which is against Gone To Lunch, Fortification, Midnight Haze and Dancing Tornado, SHORT LIST SCOTSIRISH SIZINGAUSTRALIA UNCLE JUNIOR CONCLUSION Enda Bolger may have a great record but Garde Champetre is 13 now and although he did win the handicap here in December he would have been well beaten but for the leading septet taking the wrong course and this quick ground will also be against him so I prefer to concentrate on the stat that the first three in the betting dominate these races and I make no apologies for making Scotsirish, Sizing Australia and Uncle Junior the three to concentrate on. If the prices aren’t juicy enough for you then why not consider perming them up in forecasts and tricasts as the places are also usually dominated by the leading fancies in these races? SCOTSIRISH was my idea of the most likely winner of the December handicap when he took the wrong course ahead of his stable mate UNCLE JUNIOR who won the November conditions event. Scotsirish’s two-mile Grade 1 speed is likely to be a factor on this quickish ground (faster than the Old Course as they can’t water the cross country course as well). He has the most toe and ability of these for me and I fancy him to kill them for speed on this fast ground and make him my number one fancy for the race having also won the P.P Hogan. Uncle Junior has to be respected being the first horse in years to win a cross country race on his debut in this sphere and there isn’t much wrong either with last year’s winner SIZING AUSTRALIA who loved the similarly fast ground and Henry de Bromhead is a top trainer at peaking a horse for the big day. OLBG MARES HURDLE This is the just the fifth running of the OLBG Mares Hurdle for the David Nicholson Trophy so it is going to take a good few years for patterns to establish themselves so I can’t offer too many angles especially with Quevega turning up and winning every time so I will keep this short and sweet and head straight to the conclusion as there are no real patterns to speak of as yet. SHORT LIST QUEVEGA KENTFORD GREY LADY OUR GIRL SALLEY CONCLUSION Very hard to get away from QUEVEGA of course given that Voler La Vedette and Unaccompanied don’t run and she will have to run about a stone below form not to win. The inaugural running was won by a novice and although first-season hurdlers were no match for Quevega in the next three runnings, Sparky May, finished a clear second representing novices last year and Aura About You and Over Sixty finished third and fourth in 2009 so I will make KENTFORD GREY LADY as the trends each-way selection or betting without the favourite as she strikes me as the best novice in this race just ahead of Swincombe Flame. I would fancy her and OUR GIRL SALLEY to reverse Ascot form with Violin Davis who stole the Grade 2 3m mares race at Ascot last time from the front. Our Girl Salley emerged as the best horse at the weights so she is also worth looking at in the each-way or without-favourite markets. The Irish have fared well outside of Quevega and I rate Our Girl Salley marginally a better mare than Shop Dj though the latter is coming right at the right time. PULTENEY LAND INVESTEMENTS NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE As with its hurdling equivalent at the Festival (the Fred Winter), this novices’ handicap is a race where it has proven best not to have shown too much of your hand too early as all but one of the seven winners had been beaten on their first two chase starts. Non qualifiers on this system are Going Wrong (though the only horse to overcome this stat was also trained by Ferdy Murphy), Bless The Wings, FalconIsland, Triolo D’Alene, Mic’s Delight, Charminster, Cucumber Run, That’ll Do and Educated Evans. All seven entered the race directly off the back of a win or second-place finish which is against Saint Are, The Panama Kid, Battle Group, White Star Line, Charminster, Cucumber Run and Vino Griego. In fact, horses to either win or finish second last time out have recorded four 1-2-3’s in seven runnings and a 1-2 on another occasion. Only last year’s winner, Divers, had won one more than once over fences which puts me off Hunt Ball, The Panama Kid, Going Wrong, Bless The Wings, Falcon Island, Quincy Des Pictons, Owen Glendower, Triolo D’Alene, Mic’s Delight, Carrick Boy, Cucumber Run, That’ll Do and Educated Evans. Ferdy Murphy’s grey did, however, retrieve statistical matters to a point by giving seven-year-olds yet another winner as they were also successful in the first four runnings. Declared seven-year-olds are Hunt Ball, Battle Group, Bless The Wings, FalconIsland, Owen Glendower, Ackertac, Cucumber Run, Vino Griego, That’ll Do and Educated Evans. Five of the last six winners were rated 132-135 which is exactly the bottom half of the weights from White Star Line downwards . No one race has featured in two or more of the campaigns of the seven winners so far but make a note of the Steel Plate and Sections Novice Chase won by Grands Crus over course and distance back in November as the fifth, sixth and seventh last season went on to finish first, second and fourth in this Festival handicap. Vino Griego finished fifth in that race this season. SHORT LIST ACKERTAC HARPSY CHORD (WHITE STAR LINE) (VINO GRIEGO) CONCLUSION Only Harpsy Chord and Ackertac survive the negative trends of having (a) not won more than once fences, (b) were beaten on their first two chase starts and © arrive here off the back of a win or second place finish. Both also fall into the right area of the handicap with 5 of the last 6 winners rated between 132-135 but ACKERTAC just edges it from a trends point of view given the good record of 7-year-olds. He is a maiden over fences though but that hasn’t stopped horses hitting the frame in this race in the last two years so he makes each-way appeal. He also finished sixth in the Albert Bartlett last year and 3 of the 7 winners ran in a novice hurdle at last year’s Festival. HARPSY CHORD appeals most of the Irish and his second to NH Chase fancy Soll two starts back could be very good form indeed for a horse running off bottom weight. WHITE STAR LINE only misses out as he was third last time out rather than second and he wasn’t beaten far by a proper horse in Hidden Cyclone last time so is another Irish horse with a good each-way chance and especially as he hasn’t had good ground since he was second to another proper horse in First Lieuntenant over hurdles so is a potential big improver for this better surface than he has been racing on in Ireland. Last year’s fourth VINO GRIEGO races off a 1lb lower mark and has more experience now so I can see him repaying each-way support again at a big price. He ran in the same race at Cheltenham in November which was a big factor for this handicap last year and only fails on not finishing first or second last time out but that was over hurdles in a very competitive 18-runner Ascot handicap. He may still be a maiden over fences but he has a decent shout at placing again at worst.

[cpo]

Re: jump racing 13/2/2012 1.30 Supreme Novices - Trifolium 1.5pts EW @ 14/1 Skybet 5 places (ante-post) I had 2 ante-post bets for this race and both fell by the wayside which was disappointing. Waaheb was one of my biggest ante-post bets for Cheltenham and I am gutted that he hasn't made it to the festival. The other was Simonsig who now goes for the Neptune. I still believe this race would have been better for him but I am sure Nicky Henderson knows better than me! I had a look at this race last week and ended up siding with Trifolium. Since being sent over hurdles this horse has done nothing but improve and looked very impressive last time out when beating Simenon by 9 lengths in grade 2 company. His only disappointing run came 2 runs ago where he was comprehensively beaten by So Young. He didn't settle in that race however, and this was probably the reason for him getting beat. Even still it wasn't the worst performance as he had Oilily 20+ lengths behind and that horse is a decent yardstick. The trainer has stated that he is improving with every run and that he settled much better last time out when beating Simenon. On a line through Joxer, Trifolium would appear to have the measure of most of the other main Irish contenders given how easily he beat him last time out. The trainer of Trifolium has also stated that he believes this horse will be even better on good ground so there could be even more improvement to come from him. He looks a serious horse and he travels powerfully through his races so I think the Supreme will suit him down to the ground. I doubt we have seen the best of him yet and I give him every chance of getting involved in this race. Steps to Freedom’s latest win has taken a few knocks and I would want to take him on at the prices. Midnight Game is another horse who looks short enough in the betting. The most interesting Irish contender other than my selection is Galileo’s Choice. I think he will improve for the better ground and can turn the form around with Sous Les Cieux. As for the home contingent, I like Montbazon and Darlan. Alan King has said his horse is in great form coming into the festival and he looks to have an excellent chance. We probably haven’t seen the best of Darlan yet, and he may he gone close to beating Zarkandar last time out had he not come down. Obviously there are others in the race with chances as this looks one of the most competitive races on the first day. A case could be made for more than 10 of the runners. I am happy to go with Trifolium though. The Irish have an excellent record in this race and I expect my selection to run a biggie. 2.40 Racing Post Arkle Chase – Al Ferof 2pts win @ 7/1 William Hill (ante-post) It’s hard not to be impressed by Sprinter Sacre but I feel Al Ferof may just out battle him up the hill. Of course Al Ferof will have to be close to SS if he is to get the better of him coming up the hill and that alone is a tough task. SS looks like a machine and jumps so fluently but Al Ferof like SS has improved since being sent over fences. I don’t think there is much to choose between their form over fences and Al Ferof has actually raced against tougher opposition. That being said, it is the manner of SS’s victories that has impressed everyone. He win’s very much on the bridle and clocks very fast times but he is yet to prove what he can find off the bridle. Last year he appeared to not get up the hill, whereas Al Ferof has proven a few times that he relishes coming up the Cheltenham hill. I based my selection in this race purely on the fact that I believe Al is much better suited to this track than SS is. Until SS proves himself here, I am happy to oppose him. There are a couple in here that have no chance whatsoever but both Cue Card and Menorah cannot be dismissed. The Tizzards have already said they are going to make the Arkle a true test so it is very likely that CC will try and make all the running which will suit Al Ferof as he looks a stronger stayer than SS. Menorah has to brush up on his jumping but he too will be a threat if he gets into a good rhythm. It’s a shame that SS has scared off most of the opposition but it still looks a high quality race and all eyes will be on SS to see if he can confirm himself as one the most exciting chasers for a long time. 2.40 JLT Specality Handicap Chase – Fruity O’Rooney 1pt EW @ 20/1 BetVictor I have had a look at previous trends of this race and horses carrying less than 11 stone have won 9 of the last 10. That would rule out Quantitativeeasing, Noland, Hold On Julio, Mon Mome, Magnanimity, Tullamore Dew, Zarrafkat and Our Mick. Looking at the age trend you can discount and 11 year olds + and any 6 year olds which takes out Mossley, Mount Oscar and Runshan. Now looking at finishing in the first 3 last time out and I am only left with 2 which are Fruity O’Rooney and Billy Magern. Fruity O’Rooney fits most of the trends and he has done very well this season. He looks to still be improving and finished a very creditable 3^rd in the SkyBet Chase last time out despite his saddle slipping. He is a tough front runner and could prove tough to catch. The other horse I was left with was Billy Magern but I am happy to just go with the 1 selection for the race so hopefully Fruity O’Rooney can do the business. 4pts Double Hurricane Fly 10/11 PP & Quevega 1/2 PP I do like to have a bet in most races at the festival and this looks the way forward on day one with these 2 favourites. Quevega has an absence to overcome but she looks streets ahead of her opposition here and she should win this comfortably. I don’t see much point in trying to find a big priced placed horse as it looks pretty competitive for the places. Hurricane Fly is an absolute monster and he has looked mightily impressive again this year. It will take some performance to dethrone him and I don’t see anything in this race being up to the task. His job has been made easier with a few contenders coming out but it looks as though Binocular and Zarkandar will pose the biggest threats. Zarkandar is unexposed and we don’t know how good he actually is but he will have to be rather special to beat Hurricane Fly. 5.15 Putney Land Handicap Chase – Carrickboy 2pts win @ 12/1 PP Again looking at the trends for this race which makes things easier in cutting down the field, it looks as though it’s worth concentrating on the horses at the head of the market. The one I like is the Venetia Williams trained Carrickboy who only just got into the race by hacking up at Hereford a couple of weeks ago. Carrickboy has looked a much improved horse since returning to action this season and looks set to go well here off a light weight. He is a horse that has had his problems in the past but finally got off the mark over fences in January this year. He won well that day at Catterick but followed that with a disappointing effort at Ayr where a bad blunder probably cost him the race. He made no mistake next time out at Hereford winning by 9 lengths against some decent opposition. That win got him into this race and with the yard still going well; I reckon Carrickboy can go close in this.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: jump racing 13/2/2012 1.30 CH~.25 RFC STEPS TO FREEDOM & PROSPECT WELLS SOF is unbeaten over sticks thus far top Irish female trainer these two finished 1 & 2 here in November PW has recently had a wind op and has the tounge tie on. Both will love the ground and track & trip pose no problems. 5.15 CH~.75 E/W THATLL DO 16/1 SJ~ Will love the ground good mark top trainer & jock .5 E/W BATTLE GROUP 33/1 Boylesports ~ Ran well here in the coral cup last year, is now just a 1lb higher than last win can bounce back to form here. 4.00 CH~.25 E/W DANCING TORNADO 25/1 Betfred this horse did me a big favour over hurdle two years ago has some fair chase form ground is fine and is an interesting contender here although i would have liked jock who is on the trainers other horse on this one! 2.40 CH~QUANTITATIVEEASING 1.25 WIN 13/2 PP~ MOSSLEY .5 E/W 14/1 Betfred 1/4 1-5 I think Henderson can take this the former has a big weight but is top class while the latter throws in the odd bad run like lto but is very decent also.

[Stevet1859]

Re: jump racing 13/2/2012 1:30 Cheltenham: Agent Archie 1pt e/w 25/1 Skybet (1/4 12345) NRNB Scrolling down the betting for this Supreme Novices, Donald McCain's second string looks a big price, especially as Skybet are paying out on five places. Agent Archie has only run twice over hurdles and his preperation has been low key, however he has not been extended on either outing over hurdles after coming off the flat. First time out Agent Archie beat Ingleby Spirit by a comfortable seven lengths. Ingleby Spirit did that form no harm by winning his next three races before running fourth in the Scottish County Hurdle. Next time Agent Archie had little more than a schooling round at Newcastle. which he came through nicely. It could be that Cinders and Ashes will improve for the better ground and Jason Maguire is already jocked up for that one, yet he is only rated two pounds superior to Agent Archie and is much shorter in the market. Lightly raced with potentially more to come Agent Archie looks worth each way support. 1:30 Cheltenham: Tetlami 1pt e/w 12/1 (1/4 1234) Tetlami lines up here on a four time if you count his run on the all weather at Kempton. As well as bringing some quality hurdling form he also boasts a win at Cheltenham in a Listed bumper a couple of years back So far this season he has been carefully prepared by Nicky Henderson starting off with a win at Sandown by five lengths from Black Thunder. Tetlami then had a long battle up the Kempton straight before staying on well to beat Vulcanite by three lengths, who has franked the form since. Tetlami then demonstrated his well being on the polytrack which ensured he had a good workout about a month before this race. With Barry Geraghty combining with Nicky Henderson Tetlami looks likely to go well. 2:05 Cheltenham: Al Ferof 11/4, Cue Card 7/1 Menorah 9/1 & Blackstairmountain 16/1 1pt win on each with Paddy Power (money back if Sprinter Sacre wins) Purely playing the odds here, if correct (!!) all stakes refunded if Sprinter Sacre wins. And a quarter point loss if Al Ferof wins, so hoping one of the other three wins. Maybe Al Ferof will drift out to 3/1. 2:40 Cheltenham: The Package 1pt win 13/2 William Hill & Zarrafakt 1pt e/w 16/1 Bet Victor (1/4 1234) The Package has been off for 493 days yet David Pipe is a master at bringing back horses after a long break. With Timmy Murphy in the plate, its the same pairing that went within a head of winning this race off a two pound higher mark two years ago. The Package is proven over course and distance and if back to his best looks likley to go very close. Zarrafakt looks to be a horse on the up. He has had his problems in the past pulling up twice, however there is nothing wrong with his form this year with a close second at Newbury before getting everything right at Wincanton. Emma Lavelle has rested him since and it would be reasonable to assume he will have been brought back to a peak for this. Noel Fehily does well well he rides for the yard and he is an asset in the plate. 4:40 Cheltenham: Terre Du Vent 1pt e/w 12/1 Bet365 (Without Quevega) (1/4 123) Quevega will be very hard to beat if anything close to previous season form. However, while there are a lot of runners here Terre Du Vent may be able to make her flat class tell. she ran in Group and Listed races in France and was running a decent race behind Grumeti in February at Kempton. If she is over that heavy fall, schooled well acording to Tom George's website, then this extra distance and slower pace may just suit her. Tom George has his string in fine form at the moment.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing 13/2/2012 1.30 Cheltenham - 2pts win Tetlami @ 12/1 (Hills) I sincerely hope I am not going to regret switching my allegiance at the last minute for this one. I always thought I would be on the side of Montbazon here, but I've been quite impressed with Nicky Henderson's supposed second-string(!). Not a bad hand in the race for him, and despite Darlan looking to have a big chance, I can't have him at the price without seeing him complete last time out. Despite travelling supremely well when coming down in the Betfair hurdle, strong-travelling types have fallen foul here so many times, and when he did complete here, he had to work extremely hard for the narrowest of successes behind a horse you would hope to beat much more comfortably. Despite not having to do too much when winning at Taunton the time before, again the race hasn't worked out, so without seeing him finish to a great degree last time (surely would have had to come off the bridle), I couldn't have him at 5/1. I always preferred the Montbazon/Vulcanite/Mono Man (not entered) formline to the Steps To Freedom/Prospect Wells one, so I'm happy to sidestep Jessie Harrington's charge, and I find assessing Irish form difficult. The ground concerns me for Trifolium, whose sire is 8-31 on heavy (7 others placed), but has mustered up gradually worse strike rates as the ground gets better, with just one 3rd from 8 runners on good-to-firm. Tetlami appears to have the key characteristics you want to look for in the Supreme Novice. He's got speed, he jumps slickly, and sees his races out strongly. He won a listed bumper race here in January 2010, before presumably something was amiss at Aintree in April that year, causing him to miss around 18 months. He travelled well in a decent-looking hurdle race on his first run after this absence, and on his first start over hurdles, at Sandown, and stayed on powerfully to score by 5l. He was not stopping at the finish and it was a top effort with fitness and inexperience against him. The form worked out, too, which is a bonus, as the runner-up won next time out, as did the 3rd, and the 4th lost narrowly before making no mistake last time out. The form I'm really interested in is his effort at Kempton next time. This is where his form ties in with other hopefuls, as he gave 5lbs to Vulcanite. He didn't put the race to bed until between the last two flights in reality, but again he galloped on readily late on to forge 3 1/2l clear. It is difficult to assess my selection against Montbazon here, with the latter winning by 7l (level weights) from Charlie Longsdon's horse last time. Vulcanite was having his first run over hurdles at Kempton, but was getting weight, and connections claim he was ridden too prominently when finishing 2nd last time. On balance, the track perhaps suited Vulcanite better at Kempton too - so on the whole I think I prefer the effort of Henderson's. Since then, Tetlami warmed up for this with a pretty facile win in a jumper's "bumper" at Kempton on the all-weather. He showed his qualities again - travelling strongly before quickening and staying on well to win nicely from a 130-rated rival in 2nd. He's clearly in good order, and the ingredients add up to a big run. Much like last year, however, there are many of these who can come and surprise up the hill, so nothing too radical, but I am fairly keen on this one's chances. As posted here on the 6th Jan http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/123538-Ante-Post-Jumps-Thread-2011-2012/page7?p=2086061#post2086061: Ante-Post Arkle Trophy - 5pts win Sprinter Sacre @ 5/2 (Bet365) Will just have to take the risk on him making it to Cheltenham, but if he does, he wins (avoiding accidents). I don't see where the threats come from to be honest. Peddlers Cross is entitled to get a bit closer around Cheltenham I guess but to make up 16l seems unlikely on this natural chaser. He was a very smart hurdler but has taken to fences like a duck to water and it's possible that another one of his potential threats, Al Ferof, will head elsewhere to avoid a clash with Sprinter Sacre. That horse got the better of my selection in the Supreme Novices' last year by around 5 lengths but Henderson has always said this horse was a chaser - despite slicing through an Ascot field in extremely impressive fashion prior to last year's festival. He's hacked up over fences on both occasions this year, despite racing keenly at times, and proved he was top class when beating McCain's stable star at Kempton last time. The one question mark I suppose would be the track but I don't think he'll have too much trouble getting home. Even though I picked Menorah in my ten to follow, the likes of him, Cue Card, and Al Ferof have something to find in my opinion on this horse who looks a star and a true festival banker. 2.40 Cheltenham - 3pts win Our Mick @ 10/1 (Hills) I do like Quantitiveeasing as a horse, and this trip should be perfect for him, but he has to shoulder a lot of weight, and the winner of this race hasn't won off a mark of 150+ for 29 years, so I will sidestep him here and praise his effort should he manage to carry his burden weight to victory. On the contrary, no winners in the last 12 years have won off a mark higher than 143 (the last four winners rated 142 or 143). This doesn't quite bring Our Mick into play, but I won't avoid him for the fact he runs off 144, as he's definitely carrying around the right weight you typically want in this contest. He's still inexperienced at the age of 6, and in his first season chasing, but he's really impressed with his progressive nature over these larger obstacles, and based on his effort last time, his winning may not be done with just yet. Despite this being a competitive handicap chase over 3 miles, novices have won three of the last eight renewals of the race, and this one has had 6 runs over fences so far, and touch wood his jumping can be sound enough here. He's not faultless in that department, but it hasn't held him back, so I just hope he doesn't put in one error too many. He has been really progressive since switching to chasing, and he ran up to his new mark of 142 at Newbury last time over 2m4f. It was the Grade 1 Scilly Isle's chase so he ran off level weights behind a couple of horses higher-rated than him. He kept on doggedly up the straight, rallying to finish just 3l behind the winner, For Non Stop (rated 151), and 1l behind the runner-up Michael Flips (145). Based on this, returning to handicaps, his mark of 144 doesn't necessarily look beyond him. He looks like he may well improve for the extra half-mile here, but he will have to jump well over this longer trip. He's a half-brother to two chasing types - Our Jasper, rated 125 at best, who perhaps didn't quite get home over 3 miles, and Our Jim, rated 116 at best, but won over 3m2f, and my selection here has a more similar pedigree to the latter, as the former was by a sprinter, and therefore I feel the extra trip won't be a problem for McCain's runner here. He looks to have a very solid chance, fitting the trends, and doesn't look impossibly handicapped. He can resume his winning trend here, and therefore gets a fairly chunky win bet on his back. 4.00 Cheltenham - 2pts win Balthazar King @ 12/1 (Bet365) I've read a few bits and bobs which suggest the Hobbs yard are reasonably confident that this horse is going to run well, and is one of their better chances of the week, and therefore looks worth a nibble at a double-figure price. This isn't a race I tend to get too involved in, but with the dominance of Garde Champetre coming to an end it seems, it gives opportunity for some others to come to the fore, and I'll look to a bit of value, despite conceding that those at the head of the market are likely to be bang there. It's possible that Balthazar's King would have been swamped late on anyway when the runners took the wrong course here in December, but he was keeping on in 2nd, and that race came just a fortnight after the Hennessy at Newbury, and he certainly was running well enough to be of interest the next time he faced the unique challenge. He's clearly been prepared for this race, having not been seen since, and his record fresh is also very good. 12111 is his record after a decent absence from the track, and he's also a horse who needs quick ground - as seen when galloping on relentlessly here off 3lbs lower after a break last October, on the conventional course. He stays well, which is obviously a positive in this race, and I really think he has a big chance if the Hobbs yard aren't still in the doldrums. Everything is in his favour with regards to freshness and ground, so I will take a chance at a nice price that he can mix things up and get involved. 4.40 Cheltenham - 0.5pts e/w Kells Belle @ 33/1 (SJ) The only way to play this one is find an each-way bet it seems, and I'll side with Nicky Henderson's mare. Obviously she has plenty to find, but she's a big price, and I think conditions will suit. She stays this trip well, and Cheltenham will play to her strengths I feel, having been outpaced at Kempton two starts back. She's a galloper rather than a glamour horse, which should bode well here. She showed plenty of promise last season before running very well on her return from the summer off when 3rd here in a competitive handicap - staying on well. She was outgunned by a 125-rated animal who used all of its pace to never see another rival, and that sort of race doesn't suit this mare. She wants a good pace at a testing track, and she's got a much better chance of getting that here, and she should be staying on up the hill, but her position at the time is the potential question mark! However, having been outpaced, yet still a decent 4th of 17 at Kempton, she stayed on dourly to beat a nice type of Kim Bailey's at Sandown last time. She had 7lbs to find on that rival, but still won by nearly 2 lengths, and it was an encouraging warm-up for tomorrow's stiff exercise. The runner-up had readily won her previous two races, and the pair were well clear of the rest of the field. She looks the best each-way mare for me at the prices, though nothing silly, obviously. I fancy her to run well, and I hope she sneaks into the frame at a decent price. 5.15 Cheltenham - 2pts win Going Wrong @ 11/1 (Hills) This, quite simply, must be the hardest race of the Festival, in my eyes. I could still be sat here at 5.15 tomorrow and still not have a stronger opinion on it, I reckon. However, I do quite like the profile of Ferdy Murphy's horse here, for the stable who won the race 12 months ago. The fact this one is towards the head of the weights, it doesn't look as concerning as normal, with the field very tightly packed in the handicap (12-0 to 11-4 covers all the runners). You can give sound chances to many of these, but Going Wrong doesn't look impossibly treated on his novice hurdling form from 2009, and has shaped as if he's not lost too much of his ability since returning to the track. He beat Wymott in one of those novice races, a horse now rated 148 over hurdles and 139 over fences, with the pair clear, before going down narrowly to the recently ill-fated 146-rated Bygones Of Brid. On this, a mark of 139 isn't too bad, and he's shown a fondness for chasing this year. He's a typically sound jumper, which always is a big benefit around here, and appears to stay well. The testing nature of Cheltenham should bring out the best in him, and he should be staying on well at the death. His form this year may not be as flashy as some, but after a promising chase debut after 2 years off the track, he scored by 5l at Sedgefield over this trip. Arguably he was held by the leader when that one came to grief at 2 out, but the way my selection finishes his races suggests to me that there was still a fair chance he would have got back up. He wasn't given a hard time between the final two flights, quite readily keeping those behind at bay, and when asked after the last, he kept on strongly. He looked held by a horse who would have won all 4 starts in his career had he stayed on his feet, next time, but stayed on dourly under pressure over the insufficient 2 mile trip to get up close home. He gave Nicky Richard's nice type 7lbs also on that occasion, with the pair clear. Going Wrong looks to be going the right way, and should be fully fit for this, for a yard who thrive in these sort of handicap chases at Cheltenham. He's had a couple of months off, but it does not concern me, and things should really play to his strengths here. The fact he beat a nice type last time, giving weight away, with conditions against him pleases me, and a good pace around here should see him staying on doggedly up the hill, hopefully in first place!

[richard-westwood]

Re: jump racing 13/2/2012 Always set aside funds for a good blast at cheltenham ,but i have gone a bit more focused this year , 1.30 chelt wide open race as usual but you want a real speedster to win this ,many horses in with chances especially darlan who sets the standard and might well win easily but dodgy jumping not a good factor at cheltenham given the pace they will go so price too short .steps to freedom looks another good sort and im sure the irish will latch on but i like the look of CINDERS AND ASHES who looks the progressive type i like to back in the supreme ,been getting better with every run ....has been held back by the heavy ground but times are adjusting to good speed ratings well on a par with the first 3 the betting and the heavy ground training will have prepared him physically for the tougher race /hill he faces today and i doubt he'll lack for stamina ive had 5pts e.w 7/1 my main bet of the day is the champion hurdle where it all hinges on hurricane fly and in some eyes its a formality .but i always look at this race from a value perspective and its never let me down over the years ,can still remember freshly oh so risky being around evs and i had 20 e.w on flaky dove at 16/1 to take him and flaky beat him by a nose so i know theres never such thing as a dead cert at chelt and today im really excited to see how ROCK ON RUBY will run against the fancied horses .rock on ruby is the sort of progressive young horse (upstart ) i look for in the champion hurdle as they tend to hold the most value as they havent been fully exposed yet (once they win youve done for.....never value again) .this horse has done nothing but improve and his run against binocular has been down played in many circles but he was coming back at that horse at the end and only lost by a nse and the fact that hes young ,still improving ,proven at cheltenham seems to make his pricetag amazing in relation to the first 3 in the betting i have had 10pts win 15.0 and 10 pts place .....whatever happens it should be an exciting race and might even go to the wire .... cinders and ashes 5pts e.w 7/1 rock on ruby 10pts at 15.0 win ,10pts place (around 3.0) 5pts e.w double both 7/1 and 10/1 so if both win .....its a 500pt mega payday ....cmon the lads !!!!!!!!!

[Verisimilitude]

Re: jump racing 13/2/2012

Vulcanite 1.30 Cheltenham. 0.5 points each way. I think this horse has class and it will be shown this afternoon. The frantic pace should suit and with hurdling fluently and racing at own pace, I think he can go close at big odds. The trip's fine and I expect a big run. 22/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: jump racing 13/2/2012

FRUITY O'ROONEY 2.40 Cheltenham. 0.5 points each way. Jumps well enough and should be able to run this race at the pace he likes. The trip and ground isn't a concern and although he might lack that touch of class that certain others have, he doesn't lack anything else and can quite easily be involved where it matters. Should go well. 20/1 Victor Chandler BOG

[cpo]

Re: jump racing 13/2/2012

Always set aside funds for a good blast at cheltenham ,but i have gone a bit more focused this year , 1.30 chelt wide open race as usual but you want a real speedster to win this ,many horses in with chances especially darlan who sets the standard and might well win easily but dodgy jumping not a good factor at cheltenham given the pace they will go so price too short .steps to freedom looks another good sort and im sure the irish will latch on but i like the look of CINDERS AND ASHES who looks the progressive type i like to back in the supreme ,been getting better with every run ....has been held back by the heavy ground but times are adjusting to good speed ratings well on a par with the first 3 the betting and the heavy ground training will have prepared him physically for the tougher race /hill he faces today and i doubt he'll lack for stamina ive had 5pts e.w 7/1 my main bet of the day is the champion hurdle where it all hinges on hurricane fly and in some eyes its a formality .but i always look at this race from a value perspective and its never let me down over the years ,can still remember freshly oh so risky being around evs and i had 20 e.w on flaky dove at 16/1 to take him and flaky beat him by a nose so i know theres never such thing as a dead cert at chelt and today im really excited to see how ROCK ON RUBY will run against the fancied horses .rock on ruby is the sort of progressive young horse (upstart ) i look for in the champion hurdle as they tend to hold the most value as they havent been fully exposed yet (once they win youve done for.....never value again) .this horse has done nothing but improve and his run against binocular has been down played in many circles but he was coming back at that horse at the end and only lost by a nse and the fact that hes young ,still improving ,proven at cheltenham seems to make his pricetag amazing in relation to the first 3 in the betting i have had 10pts win 15.0 and 10 pts place .....whatever happens it should be an exciting race and might even go to the wire .... cinders and ashes 5pts e.w 7/1 rock on ruby 10pts at 15.0 win ,10pts place (around 3.0) 5pts e.w double both 7/1 and 10/1 so if both win .....its a 500pt mega payday ....cmon the lads !!!!!!!!!

Very nice mate!

[markmywords]

Re: jump racing 13/2/2012 Well in fella cracking payday for you. Geezer on Everton website had E/W lucky 15 Cinders and Ashes 1.30 Fruity O'Rooney 2.40 Rock on Ruby 3.20 Balthazar king 4.00 just a tad unlucky but he doesn't seem bitter. "CHEERS LIDS The returns are just shy of £800 shame about the second one, but i would have blew it all on thai brasses anyway. Ive had worse days now everton dont #### this up "