BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012

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I've always found day 1 the hardest to tie down a winner, i've had arkle winners before but the Supreme and Champion hurdles always seem to beat me with my final selections All prices were taken at around midday today, i also publish these on my website and also on twitter @tip4profit Cheltenham Day 1 Race 1 Supreme novices hurdle Key Trends 13/15 winners having won LTO 14/15 ran in Jan (3) or Feb (11)other winner ran in Nov. 13/15 had at least 3 runs thatseason. 14/15 had at least 2 wins thatseason 12/15 had ran 4 times or less thatseason. 4/14 Favs 8/14 Irish trained 1. Reducing the field Take the best 3 stats from above, LTO Jan / Feb, 1st LTO, & 2 wins thisseason leaves us with: Agent archie, Cinders & ashes, Divapour, Felix younger, Galileos choice, Midnight game, Monksland, Montbazon, Tetlami,Trifolium, Irish trained horses must be kept on side as they have a good record (boldabove) The main profile is 3-4 runs and LTO in Feb which leaves us with: Cinders & ashes, Divapour, Felix younger,Montbazon, Tetlami 2. Consider the main contenders An open looking race with no stand out favourite this year. The main trainersdo well in this race and Henderson at present has 4 possibles includingfavourite Darlan who fell LTO when going well in the Tote Trophy race won byChampion Hurdle 3^rd fav Zarkandar. Willie Mullins has 6 currentlystill in the race and should be feared as he targets this meeting now in alltypes of races. The Cheltenham bumperform had not been a good trend however Al Ferof turned that on its head lastyear by storming up the hill. This yearwe have Cinders & ashes (4^th), Ericht (5^th) FelixYounger (21^st) . The favourite Darlan has the dreaded F as LTOhowever i personally feel he would have beaten Zarkandar had he stood up that day so its form should be respected.Galileos choice has only race on heavy ground this season but does have form onfaster and is a former group class horse on the flat. A few horses comeinto the race unbeaten – Agent archie for D McCain, done nothing wrong in 2wins to date but profile of the race prefers 3-4 runs so inexperience may tell.Divapour from France is a big price and has won 3 on the spin, a bit of anunknown this one. 3. Other factors Average win odds for this race are over 12/1 for the last 10 years whichincluded a 20/1 & 40/1 winner. Even last year Al Ferof landed the spoils at10/1 for Nicholls and Walsh. 4. Final analysis I ignored the winnerlast year on the bumper stat but will keep it in this year as Cinders &ashes does look capable of winning this race after its recent efforts. It alsohas ran at Cheltenham twice on the level, only concern is the 4 runs thisseason all over flat tracks for some reason. Divapour comes over from Franceand i will have a second look but at 40/1 and no one talking about it, it couldjust be one of the also rans. FelixYounger came out of Howard Johnson stable at end of last season and joinedMullins, last win was a gr 2 novice hurdle and not without a chance at a bigprice. Ruby has ridden it this season but unlikely to on Tuesday. Montbazon accounted for Vulcanite LTO anddeserves to be in the shake up for Alan King who has hit top form in Feb/Mar.Tetlami is m idea of the winner here meets all the trends and also turned overVulcanite however gave that horse 5lbs which should mean it can beat Montbazon.Hasn’t had a prep run over hurdles but Henderson took advantage of the Kemptonbumper races to keep it going. 5.Bets [TABLE=class: cms_table_MsoNormalTable]

[TR] [TD]TETLAMI[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]14/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]BET365[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]FELIX YOUNGER[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]25/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]SKYBET (1^st 5)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 2 - Arkle chase KeyTrends 10/15 won LTO 15/15 won or placed LTO 13/15 last ran Jan / Feb 13/15 won by 2nd, 3rd or 4th inbetting behind favourite 1/15 won by favourite 5/15 French bred 6/15 5 - 6yo 12/15 more than 2 runs thatseason 12/15 2 or more wins that season 14/15 5 or less runs that season 1. Reducing the field Concentrating on the main trends, won orplaced LTO, Jan/Feb last run, won by 2nd-4th in betting, 2 or more wins & 5or less runs in the season. Taking the horses that ran in Jan/Feb LTO and were 1st or placed LTO, we haveleft: Al Ferof, Cristal bonus, Cue card, KidCassidy, Sprinter sacre 2 or more wins and a lightly raced sort is thenext cut off, which leaves: the same 5 named!! 2. Consider the main contenders Top rated hurdlers normally run well in this which gives Menorah and Cue card asqueak rated 150+ The hot favourite is Sprinter Sacre 3^rdin the Supreme last year behind Al Ferof. They meet again to contend this raceand owner of Al Ferof has already stated this will be last run over 2m. The keywill be how the race is run as SS could get it all its own way and be too farahead come the final climb up the hill. Al Ferofs recent run in top company isdecent form whereas SS has only beaten handicappers to date although smashedthe course record at Newbury an possibly would have beaten anyone on that day.Cheltenham will be different though. Henderson loves racing his Cheltenhampossible in February but i would have liked maybe a stiffer test for thefavourite LTO to be able to judge it. 3. Other factors 2nd-4th in the betting is significant here as outsiders just don’t win but thefav has a very poor record also. 4. Final analysis The fav does have a poor record and it is close between 3, i don’t thinkCristal bonus runs so i would have to be on Al Ferof and Cue Card against thefavourite 5. Bets [TABLE=class: cms_table_MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]AL FEROF[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]10PTS WIN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]11/4[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]SPORTING BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]CUE CARD[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]10PTS WIN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]7/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]CORAL[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 3 JLT Chase Key trends 15/15 Class 3 race LTO or better 15/15 Best win Class 3 or better 14/15 10+ plus career runs 14/15 Aged 7 to 10 12/15 Jan/Feb LTO 13/15 23f+ win 14/15 2-5 runs this season 14/15 Wins / Runs 20% or betterin whole career 11/15 10st 11lb or less 12/15 4+ course runs 1/15 Favs 1/15 over 11st 2lb 1. Reducing the field The trends here are very strong and we cannarrow the field now with the help of the main trends,leaving us with: Taking the age trend 7-10 we remove: Noland,Mon Mome, Mount Oscar, runshan, Le burf (5) Wins to runs 20% or better, we remove: Arbor supreme, Leanne, Tullamore dew, Divers,Tharawaat, The Package, Charingworth, Major malarkey, Riquez dancer, Definite dawn. Pentific, Free world,Marescuo, Ballyvesey (14) 10+ career runs removes: Cappa Bleu, Hold on Julio, Summery justice (3) Best win class 3 or higher removes: BAile Anrai (1) Remove those above 11st 2lb which removes: Hectors choice, Noland, Cannington brook,Walkon, Time for Rupert, Quantativeeasing (6) The favoured final profile has to be the 4+course runs as horses are often campaigned here in previous years. This leavesthe following: Matuhi, Billie Magern, Consigliere (Mossleyhad 3 runs at the track) 2. Consider the main contenders We should look at those horse that run well at the course and have 1-2 as lasttime out. Quantattiveasing Cheltenhamwin at Cheltenham was December was a great effort but worrying hasn’t been outsince and hasn’t won over 23f+ either. Time for Rupert has won here 3 times andsidesteps the Gold cup to go for this race after not quite excelling thisseason. Not sure it can carry this weight around here against the handicapfield. Hold on Julio is very lightly raced which doesn’t suit this race so novalue with that one for me. The Package would have been laid out for this raceby Pipe but it’s very difficult to come here without a run although i assume that’sthe trick with this horse. 3. Other factors Wichita Lineman was the 1st winning favourite for over 10 years in 2009. 4. Final analysis The trends are saying Billie Magern or Consigliere and my concern about thehorses at the top of the weights is the 1 from 15 stat over 11st 2lb and theother negative trends against them. 5. Bets [TABLE=class: cms_table_MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]BILLIE MAGERN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]33/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]SKYBET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]CONSIGLIERE[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]33/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]SKYBET[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 4 - Champion Hurdle Key trends 13/15 won last time out with the othersfinishing 2nd & 3rd 11/15 won a graded race LTO (5 @Gr1, 3 @ Gr2 & 2@ Gr3) 15/15 ran LTO in Jan or Feb 5/15 won AIG champion hurdle in Irelandbefore the festival 10/15 had 4 or more runs in the season 12/15 had previous festival form 9/15 had won at a previous festival 13/15 were aged 6 to 8 12/15 were priced 10/1 or lower 1/15 were 5yo (Katchit) 8/15 were irish trained 6/15 were favs 1. Reducing the field The LTO stat again would appear to be key, horses that finished in the 1st 3LTO. This removes Brampour, Olofi The Jan/Feb stat would remove Overturn andRock on ruby Previous festival form and ages 6-8 are 2 stats to consider also leaving:Binocular, Celestial Halo, Hurricane fly, Oscars well, Thousand stars, Zaidpour 2. Consider the main contenders Hurricane Fly proved last year to be a worthy champion and its preparation thisyear seems to be have been well planned only missing 1 possible engagement butwon LTO easily in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Against it we have a 5yo Zarkandar who won the Tote Trophy at Newburylast month when slightly under par however at 11/2, and 5yo’s have a poorrecord with only Katchit winning in over 30 years. Previous champion Binocular appears again andwill have favoured fast ground, this horse is the fastest hurdler i have seenover the last few years and its performance LTO was very clinical and a perfectprep for this race. Henderson will have this spot on i feel. 3. Other factors Prior to last year, the last 4 winners were priced at 22/1, 10/1, 9/1 &8/1. The fly was available at 11/2 before being backed into 11/4 on the day.This year the fly is odds on and only Binocular comes close this year to takeit on 4. Final analysis The Fly should win but i make it a 6/4 chance and Binocular 7/2, so withHenderson’s horse looking a cert ew on the card, and available at 9/2, i willtake on the fly. 5. Bets [TABLE=class: cms_table_MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]BINOCULAR[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]10PTS WIN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]CORAL[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Consigliere and Felix Yonger do not run leaving it a bit bare for the 1st day. I'm toying with adding in Cinders and Ashes as that horse impressed me this season and should be thereabouts. will update in the morning