Flat Racing - Thurs 23rd February

[StuSimmy]

16:10 Southwell

The race of the day at the fibresand track and 9 line up for this Class 4 race (barring any non-runners). The lightly raced

Colour Guard

from the Mark Johnston stable is my selection in this race. The four year old has only had one run to date and that was at this track over 7 furlongs just 13 days ago. He won the race by just under 2 lengths and although this gelding did show a bit of greeness, he kept on well enough. This suggests the step up to a mile today will be well within his capabilities and we all know Johnston has a good record with his horses when stepping them up in trip. The fact he has already won round here is another plus as it can be a bit of a specilist track as not every horse takes well to the fibresand and a lot of horses do struggle on the surface. He makes his handicap debut off a mark of 75 today which seems a mark he can certainly win off of.

WIN Colour Guard @ 5/4 (Bet Victor)

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Thurs 23rd February Follow The Flag - Southwell 4:10* Colour Guard is deserved favourite, but is opposable at that price of 5/4, there are seasoned handicappers in here that offer a bit more value. I have gone for Follow The Flag, who is a course winner 3 times and a course and distance winner once. He runs off the same mark of 81 where he was 2nd to Emerald Wilderness @ 40/1 in a Class 3 contest, he is in a Class 4 contest tomorrow, and it is a weaker race. So if he reproduce that form, he has a major chance here in this race. The horse has a very good record at Southwell. McCabe's horses have been running well enough, and at 5/1 is worth a bet. *1 Point WIN @ 5/1 VC BOG*

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thurs 23rd February no luck yesterday .....captain scooby drifted badly before the off so obviously negative on course and the other was a close 3rd .....hopefully better today 8.50 kemp lastkingofscotland ran a blinder lto and comes here with a rating of 98+ which is going to be hard to beat but has +3 weight and +4hcap ,garstang has run exactly 92 on both his last 2 runs both here and at wolverhampton so ultra consistent and also also has +4 hcap but -6 weight (the drop in weight shouldered should help him to compete with the fav ) very tight between the 2 and they seem above all the others in this race lastkingofscotland 2pts win 2/1 garstang 2pts win 4/1 will hill as i have it as a 2 horse race i'll take both against the field and hope garstang wins for the +6 payout

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thurs 23rd February 6.50 kemp: this all seems to hinge on the well being of white shift ,he ran a blinding 99 here last but one run ago (drawn 1) and then ran a below par 88 (drawn 11 ) ,he now returns here draw 3 so hopefully a run on a par with the 99 is possible and anywhere near that would be good enough to win this white shift 2pts win 9/2 skybet

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing - Thurs 23rd February ARKAIM (15:10) is yet to run over this 1m4f trip and there of course has to be a query to whether he’ll stay it, as he’s yet to run further than an extended 1m1f at Wolverhampton (only win came at this trip). However, he shapes like the trip won’t be much of a problem and he’s certainly bred for the task, and if he stays the distance then he’ll go very close off what still looks a decent mark of 65. He’s 1/11 and has finished 2^nd four times but there’s nothing wrong with his attitude whatsoever and had been consistent since joining new connections, having three 2nds whilst with Pam Sly over the mile trip, two of them on this fibresand surface. He’s the type who likes to lead and plods on at the one-pace throughout, and to the eye shapes that a go at this distance is no bad thing, especially on efforts both here and when going down to the well-treated (at the time) Alhaban at Lingfield. He’ll have to bounce back from a more mediocre effort over a mile when last seen, beaten 7.75 lengths but he again looked like the step up in trip would be no bad thing, looked one-paced yet again. Although it is his first effort at 1m4f, there isn’t a huge amount of pace on and I can’t see it being a stiff test of the trip. With his aptitude for the surface assured and there been a fair chance that he’ll stay, he looks worthy of a bet at his current price. He’s regularly run to about a mark of 70 over a mile, a trip I just feel is inadequate and I’m expecting improvement to come at this type of distance. He’s worth a fair bet today I feel as it isn’t a strong race, as I’m not convinced at all at the front three in the markets chances at all (not entirely sure they’re that well-treated). Of course a bet where the trip is an unknown is risky, but he’s value at anything bigger than 7/2 and worthy of a bet. OMEGA CENTAURI (17:20) may well be entering the last chance saloon now dropping to a mark of 45, but she’s extremely lightly-raced compared to the rest of the field and I give her a chance in this very poor field over this trip, especially as she travels like she’ll improve in handicaps for this 7f distance and is certainly bred to be OK at this trip. Although a bet full of risk, especially as she’s not shown a great deal on the bare form in her four starts, she could be a bit better than a 45 rated and is worth a small bet. She showed little in three Wolverhampton maidens between 7-9f, with a year in between the final two. Although to her credit, she was asked for only a modicum of effort on her third maiden start, given too much to do in the rear and wasn’t persisted with. She was entitled to need it anyway. Allotted a mark of 47 for handicap debut over 9f at Wolverhampton, she went off relatively unfancied at 16/1, given her wide-draw but travelled well for the most part towards the front of affairs in a fairly strongly run-race before fading quite quickly around 2f out. Although hardly form to be excited over, she travelled well enough on her past two starts to suggest that a drop in trip would be ideal and she’s now at the basement mark for a top trainer. Would be unlikely that they’d persist with her for no reason, especially as she was unraced throughout the entire of 2010 and they only come here for this one animal. It’s probable that she’s just extremely limited but it’s worth a chance at this price that she’s better than a 45-rated horse at this trip, which looked possible given how she travels and the fact she’s still racing. The booking of Steve Drowne is interesting (first ride ever for Ed McMahon) and in a race where very few look well-handicapped or capable of getting in front, this one is definitely a little bit of value at present. On a look the form of ALIOONAGH (19:20), you can arrive at a couple of conclusions. Firstly, is that she probably works a lot better at home than she does on the track, given how she’s been prominent in the market on more than one occasion from her six starts. Another is that she’ll never live up to her $1.25m price-tag but I just feel that she’s far more at home on this artificial surface and she could well be thrown in back at Kempton off a mark of 52. She’s been through four different trainers but has continued with this same owner throughout her career and it was a career that started off with real promise over C&D as a 3 year old, running well in a fair maiden and probably running to around the 70 mark in handicap terms. Subsequently, she didn’t back this up on turf before given a strange ride on her last start on polytrack (held-up, asked for challenge late, hampered), but running really well in the circumstances. Obviously, it was expected that she’d score on handicap debut in June of last year on turf off a mark of 65, given she went off 7/2 with Ryan Moore booked. However, she really just doesn’t look at home on turf and I feel that the switch to polytrack will bring about improvement, as it could well be her best surface and she’s definitely unexposed in handicaps when running on it. She’s more than entitled to “need this” after a 163 day absence but her best start to date came first time out, and she was really well-backed when coming off a similar absence on handicap debut, so it’s perhaps no bad thing that she comes into this race with no recent run. Peter Makin can obviously get one ready and the vibes from the jockey booking are positive too. Luke Morris is 2/5 for Peter Makin and 1/1 when running for this owner, and although drawn in stall 10/14, she could well be open to a fair bit of improvement off this lenient mark on her previous all-weather form. She could have of course lost the plot completely/need the run, but Peter Makin is probably one of the underrated trainers out there and this one is nicely priced I feel. MAY’S BOY will have to avoid the antics at the start that saw him rear as the stalls opened last time, sacrificing pretty much any chance he had. Granted a better start, he can go really well off his last winning mark in a race that is likely not to be run at a furious pace (which suits). A twice winner over C&D, once in claiming company in January 2011 but he ran much better than a 70 rated horse that day and has been improving slowly generally since, breaking his turf duck at Sandown with an easy success off this mark in June. The selection looked to struggle off marks in the mid-70s on turf but returned with his best run in ages on seasonal reappearance off 8lbs higher over a mile here last month, travelling well and looking to have every chance with 1f to go, before his finishing effort faded over a trip probably a bit further than ideal. Was expected to run better again on his subsequent start when supported in the morning, but never went a yard in a much stronger race than this contest. However, his last effort, although rearing in the stalls, was much more promising, as it paid to be towards the front of affairs that day and he made some decent progress under hand-riding, and although beaten 7 lengths by the current favourite in this contest, it still wasn’t a bad effort given the circumstances. May’s Boy now has a 7lb pull with the favourite and granted a cleaner break (probable, only reared at the start in 1 other start out of 23) he can go much better. He’s back to his last winning mark, this race looks devoid of a confirmed front-runner, and a crawl wouldn’t inconvenience May’s Boy, as he’s won in slowly-run races in the past. Dane O’Neill takes the ride once again and he’s won three times on him in the past and was on board for his promising reappearance effort. I’m expecting a big effort from this one today, especially in a race where questions can be asked about most. Bets 15:10 Southwell – Arkaim; 2pts @ 5/1 Boylesports (bog) 17:20 Kempton – Omega Centauri; 1pt @ 25/1 Ladbrokes (bog) 19:20 Kempton – Alioonagh; 2pts @ 12/1 Ladbrokes (bog) 20:50 Kempton – May’s Boy; 3pts @ 8/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - Thurs 23rd February 2.10 Southwell Mazovian is a short enough price given his profile, was impressive when winning 7 days earlier against some other fibresand specilists but they clearly underperformed and the race rather fell apart and this is far more competitive and may find this tougher under a 6lb penalty and from stall 1 therefore looks opposable a week later. Beachwood Bay is another front runner in this field and unlikely to get a soft lead and has since been found out off this mark before over 6f and this trip may just stretch his stamina. Monte Cassino also won last time out, up 4lb for that effort and been off the track for 40+ days which is a concern and is gonna need to find more off this sort of mark in a competitive race. Arachnophobia looks overpriced in my opinion at 20/1, came back from a break last time out under this inexperienced jockey off this mark finishing 8 length 2nd but the winner is a hard horse to predict but should clearly come on for the run and if doing so should go well on a surface he clearly handles and is dangerously handicapped on best form having last won off a mark of 81 running off 65 today with a 7lb claimer although she didnt look great in a finish he is just overpriced. The other that interests me at a price is Dickie Le Davior, he is a bit of a monkey often slowly away but is more than capable of having the beating of most of these on a going day, he started a good win sequence this time last year and has been running well enough on this surface this winter to suggest he can win again soon, easily excused last time out on polytrack just dont appeared to act on it at the moment. There is no shortage of pace in this race with so many front runners which should suit him, handicapped to win races and more experienced jockey takes over and knows this character well. 0.5pt e/w Arachnophobia 20/1 bet365 (since writing now a best priced 11/1) 1pt win Dickie Le Davoir 12/1 vc 3.10 Southwell Jawaab has attracted market support on latest 2 runs and has again today and whether you follow the money or not today is not a risk I'm gonna take. He has been running in stronger races than this recently but too me didnt look a winner waiting to happen last time out over CD, potentially well handicapped having won off a mark of 75 on this surface last winter and then off a mark of 80 at Wolves, running off 67 today but not overly convinced by his race last time out and question mark over this surface for me on that effort didnt look comfortable despite winning on surface last year. Overrule won a weak seller around here before a much improved 2nd behind Magic Millie who looks a useful prospect and has since won a better race and that form looks particularly strong, and given he has won off marks in the high 70s at his best and now running off a mark of 64 1lb ahead of the handicapper and has to be feared in this company. 2pt win Overrule 9/4 vc 3.40 Southwell Interesting staying handicap where unfortunately Hugh Taylor has got on the one I was interested in but I still feel he is the most likely winner. Rory Boy hasnt shown much in hurdle or chase races this winter, and hasnt been seen on the flat since sept last year at Wolves, and had previously shown very little in maidens but did appear to handle this surface well in a jumper bumper around here 11 days ago a mark of 62 is hard to assess on his flat form but looks a fair mark on jump form but might find this tougher against other course specialists. Blackmore has a habit 1 or 2 too good but is consistent but he remains a 1lb above last winning mark and his consistency is probably what is getting in the way of another win. Steady Gaze has made it 3 from 3 over 16f at Kempton recently when winning comfortably last time out, up 7lb and also has to prove as effective away from there and on this specialists surface. Aaman has an impressive record around here 2 wins from 4 and 2nd last time out just improves that record, he made a mockery off a mark of 55 on this surface 2 years ago, only seen once last year and and not in this surface until last time out when only 2 lengths behind an unexposed runner off a mark of 65 and although a 2lb rise leaves him needing to find more he remains relatively lightly raced especially on this surface and professional takes over from an amateur and should come on for the run and have more to come on this surface. 5pt win Aaman 9/4 vc

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - Thurs 23rd February 6.20 Kempton For the grade this doesnt look an awful race. Almaty Express is a Wolverhampton stalwart and has only run once here and was well held and therefore despite perhaps getting a soft lead in this field with Spencer on board he is probably opposable around here especially from stall 7. Itsthursdayalready has returned to form recently but looks much better on fibresand surface and opposable back on polytrack. First Class is the least exposed in the lineup here and won well on penultimate start, goes down as disappointing in my book on latest run under a penalty 2lb better off today but will need them to go hard in front and that doesnt look that likely with lack of front runners here and stayed on as if a step up in trip would be suited and doesnt get that today so doesnt really interest me at a favourites price. For me Tamino looks a huge price at 9s given a return to form last time out under todays jockey, perhaps kicked a little too early but in the end he did only get beaten by 1/2length and well clear of the rest of the field and despite a 3lb rise he should go well with the lack of pace in this race. 2pt win Tamino 8/1 vc 8.50 Kempton Strange looking race, Street Power has been well backed and despite being very well handicapped on best form has shown next to nothing recently and return of cheekpieces need to bring a massive revival here at this sort of price. Garstang has been in good from recently but rapidly creeping back up the weights now 10lb higher than for win on epnultimate start, and despite a close 2nd last time out a 4lb higher mark leaves him needing more, hasnt won off a mark this high since 2006 and handicapper probably has him for now. Lastkingofscotland has been in good form all winter but is another that is creeping back up the weights and unlikely to get such a soft time up in front this time round off a 4lb higher mark with Jungle Bay and Crazy Chris in the field. A chance is taken on Bradley revitilising Crazy Chris to something like her best, he does well with these sorts from other yards and she is well handicapped to attack with 4lb below last winning mark and 1 from 1 around here and good record on polytrack with 1 win and 2 2nd's from 4 runs, interesting she is dropped back to 7f having won over 10f and 8f but she has shown plenty of speed making all on latter occasion and she is the sort that could spring a surprise on a return from a lay off from a yard that is going well at the moment. 1pt e/w Crazy Chris 14/1 pp