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Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please


leony

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Hello fellow Punters I've decided to go ahead and try to bet on teams will end their 2 game draw streak. I already am betting on that they will end their 3 game draw streak. You can read about here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/123265-Teams-End-your-streak-please Rules to this will be very similar and very simple.

If a team has played 2 draws in a row I'm betting on that it will end. I will lay the draw in the next match the team plays. League games only. Not every team on a streak will be a qualifier for the system. I've noticed that lay odds are quite high in some leagues (Belarus, Hungary 2nd Division among others) and in some cases I'm not able to play games that has a 6 hour time difference.

Some leagues aren't available at Betfair where I place my lay bets.

I'm not going to chase my losses this time. We've already seen in the other thread that some streaks are way to long. I'll start with a 200 unit bank. Stake is 1,05 unit on every bet (so I will have a profit of 1 unit after commission). I've tracked this since the 21st of December 2011. 207 matches and 162 of them were winners (strike rate 78,26%). That should be enough for a small profit, said the careful optimist. Any questions just ask.

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please Placed 9 bets for Saturday. There is 2 from Chile but I'm not pleased with the odds right now. They start late Saturday so I'll take a look at the odds tomorrow. I'll post them tomorrow if I play them. Here is how the 9 bets look (+the 2 games from Chile): 17febuary20122drawstrea.png :hope

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please Good luck with this new system, Leony :hope Just one suggestion - would it be better to list the bets in ascending rather than descending order?.... it will make your results easier to follow (for my simple brain, anyway)

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please Hi Grex. Thank you very much. I think I'm going to need the good luck. 5 settled bets in this new system and all 5 are losing bets. If I hadn't tracked the previous 200+ bets I wouldn't believe in this system. Onwards and upwards. The order of the bets is because of the way I made the pics of my tables (it was out of necessity because of my lack of imagination at the time). I also think it would be easier and more pleasing to the eye. I've actually figured out how I want it now but nobody hasn't said anything so I never made the change (old habits die hard). Thanks for the push :-)

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please I've placed bets on the 2 games from Chile. The odds are better today than yesterday. I'll illustrate what I mean. Palestino game (yesterday's odd "back/lay"): 3,55/6,20 Palestino game (today's odd "back/lay"): 4,10/4,30 Italiano game (yesterday's odd "back/lay"): 3,10/6,60 Italiano game (today's odd "back/lay"): 3,45/3,65 Here is how it looks (with some settled bets - all losers): 18feb20122drawstreak.png :hope

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please 10 maybe 11 games for Sunday. Not happy with the odds on the Huachipato game (lays at 950). It starts late Sunday so I'll have another look tomorrow. There is a couple of early starters in Mexico. Here is how it looks: 19feb20122drawstreak.png :hope[TABLE=width: 131]

[TR] [TD=class: xl63, width: 131][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please I have played the Huachipato game at odd 4,10. I thought I'd post the entire sheet to display friday and Saturday's poor performance. A drunk monkey smoking cannabis could have done a better job. Although if I can keep draws per 15 games I'm about to hit the big time. Here is how it looks when you pick the wrong weekend for the start of your new system: 19feb20122drawstreakpar.png Sunday has been so so. 2 winners out of 3 so far. I have no doubt that there is better times ahead. :hope

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please Things are improving, Leony....slowly :ok But I still have reservations regarding the logic....... even after a run of 15 Reds on Roulette, the chances of the next outcome remains 50/50. OK.... in football there are three possible outcomes, but you know what I mean - basically the previous results do not influence the probability of the next outcome. I appreciate that you are being more selective with your choice of leagues etc. Good luck, anyway :hope

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please

But I still have reservations regarding the logic....... even after a run of 15Reds on Roulette, the chances of the next outcome remains 50/50. OK.... infootball there are three possible outcomes, but you know what I mean -basically the previous results do not influence the probability of the nextoutcome. I appreciate that you are being more selective with your choice ofleagues etc.
Good point but in football it is slightly different. It's not as simple as50/50 (or 33.333, 33.333, 33.333 = Home win, away win and draw). Surely, asthere are other factors rather than the spin of a wheel (EG how good a team is,opponents, away records, home records) if a gambler was to be more specific inwhich games to lay the draw (two game drawing streak plus considering otherfootball factors) it makes it a more wiser choice rather than if it is astraight coin toss. The previous run doesn't necessarily influence theprobability of the next outcome, but the actual football teams dowhilst in games like Roulette there is no influence as such.
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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please Thank you Grex. I know exactly what you mean but it isn't based on the logic you're referring to (the 3 draw streak system is as I state in the first post to that system - although I had a sample size of 81 games with a strike rate of 79,01%). I can easily see why you think its based on that "logic" and I fully understand why you have reservations (it isn't the first time I face these reservations). The 200 games I tracked had a strike rate of 78,26%. According to my math that would mean a profit if I can keep the average odds below 4,59 (a little less due to commission). Average odds in the other system's flat bet section is 4,09. So I thought I'd give it a go. So in my mind it is based on some kind of value rather than pure chance (it is a small sample, I know, but I'm not into backtesting). I'll evaluate when I reach about 200 games (same as the sample size). If things hasn't improved I'll turn the system around and present a draw-system :cigar I started this based on a small sample but I'll soldier on and see how it ends. Thank you :hope

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please Thanks for your reply, Leony. Like all innovative systems, it's a risk.... it may work, it may not. As we Brits say, "the proof of the pudding is in the eating" (I hope there is a similar expression in Danish - but I doubt it ;))

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please In Denmark we say: "erfaringen er den bedste læremester" (translates to "experience is the best teacher"). Not as colorful but the meaning of the 2 should be the same. In a couple of months we'll see if the hard work has been worth it (I'll be satisfied if it breaks even at this point) Yesterday was a good day. 2 winners from 2 possible. There is 1 for tomorrow. Here is how it looks: 24feb20122drawsteak.png :hope

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please 41 bets for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Here is the list of games (can change at any minute): [TABLE=width: 497]

[TR] [TD=class: xl63, width: 151]Aberdeen[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 268]St Mirren - Aberdeen[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 78]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Adanaspor[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Akhisar Belediye Genclik Spor - Adanaspor[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]AFC Wimbledon[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Crewe - AFC Wimbledon[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Aris[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Aris - AEK[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Bielefeld[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Erfurt - Bielefeld[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Bremen (Am)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Offenbach - Bremen (Am)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Brighton[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Brighton - Ipswich[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Carpi[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Carpi - Avellino[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Charlton[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Charlton - Stevenage[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Cowdenbeath[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Cowdenbeath - Brechin[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Den Haag[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Breda - Den Haag[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Estudiantes[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Estudiantes - Independiente[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Foligno[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Lumezzane - Foligno[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Hull[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Cardiff - Hull[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Latina[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Latina - Prato[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Oberhausen[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Sandhausen - Oberhausen[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Pavia[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Pavia - Spal[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]PSG[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Lyon - PSG[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Queen Of South[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Falkirk - Queen Of South[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Rapid Wien[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Sturm - Rapid Wien[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Reggiana[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Pro Vercelli - Reggiana[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Ross County[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Dundee - Ross County[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Rotherham[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Rotherham - Bristol Rovers[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Sigma Olomouc[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Slovacko - Sigma Olomouc[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Taranto[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Ternana - Taranto[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Thun[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Thun - Xamax[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Tranmere[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Oldham - Tranmere[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Union Santa Fe[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Belgrano - Union Santa Fe[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]25.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Arsenal[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Velez Sarsfield - Arsenal[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Braunschweig[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]St. Pauli - Braunschweig[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Brest[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Brest - Marseille[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Cobresal[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Cobresal - Union La Calera[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Cruz Azul[/TD] [TD=class: xl64]Monarcas - Cruz Azul[/TD] [TD=class: xl64]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Et. Carouge[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Biel - Et. Carouge[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]La Serena[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]La Serena - Santiago Wanderers[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Locarno[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Vaduz - Locarno[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Marseille[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Brest - Marseille[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Rentistas[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Danubio - Rentistas[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Santa Clara[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Portimonense - Santa Clara[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Wanderers[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Cerro Largo - Wanderers[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]26.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Aachen[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Dusseldorf - Aachen[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]27.02.2012[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please So far I have played 16 games for Saturday. Still 7 to go but I'm not satisfied with the odds yet. Mostly the lower Italian leauges. Will post the rest tomorrow if I place bets on them. Here is how it looks so far: 25feb20122drawsteak.png :hope

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please Only 7 of Sunday's 11 games was winners. That is a strike rate of 63,6%. That strike rate should be about 15% higher to be in profit. A total loss this weekend of 12 units. That isn't good enough. It is uphill. Tonight there is only 1 qualifier. Here is how it looks (with results for this weeknd): 27feb20122drawsteak.png :hope

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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please Here is the games for the weekend (starting tomorrow): [TABLE=width: 497]

[TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 151]Naval[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, width: 268]Naval - Atltico CP Lisbon[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, width: 78]01.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Palmeiras[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Linense - Palmeiras[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]01.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Sao Paulo[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Sao Paulo - Guaratingueta[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]01.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Hull[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Blackpool - Hull[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]02.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]FC Brasov[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]FC Brasov - Pandurii[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]02.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Angers[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Arles - Angers[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]02.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Tours[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Tours - Troyes[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]02.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Vicenza[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Varese - Vicenza[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]02.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Albinoleffe[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Padova - Albinoleffe[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Padova[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Padova - Albinoleffe[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Aris[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Aris - AEK[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Beroe[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Ludogorets Razgrad - Beroe[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Colchester[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Colchester - Preston[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Crewe[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Crewe - Shrewsbury[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Getafe[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Getafe - Malaga[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Gijon[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Barcelona - Gijon[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Jena[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Jena - Oberhausen[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Lechia[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Lechia - Wisla[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Lierse[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]OH Leuven - Lierse[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Macclesfield[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Bristol Rovers - Macclesfield[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Patriotas Tunja[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Envigado - Patriotas Tunja[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Penafiel[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Estoril - Penafiel[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Plymouth[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Plymouth - Gillingham[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Sassuolo[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Pescara - Sassuolo[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]St. Truiden[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]St. Truiden - Waregem[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Thun[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Thun - Servette[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]W. Neustadt[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Admira - W. Neustadt[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Chemnitzer[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Babelsberg - Chemnitzer[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]03.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Aberystwyth[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Airbus - Aberystwyth[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Aves[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Arouca - Aves[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Barcelona SC[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Barcelona SC - Independiente José Terán[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Danubio[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Fenix - Danubio[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Gaziantep BB[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Adanaspor - Gaziantep BB[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Piacenza[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Prao - Piacenza[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Lausanne[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Lausanne - Young Boys[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]LDU de Loja[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Olmedo - LDU de Loja[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Haladas[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Haladas - Győr[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Portimonense[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Leixoes - Portimonense[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Quindio[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Quindio - Huila[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Santa Fe[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]D. Pasto - Santa Fe[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Slavia Prague[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Ml. Boleslav - Slavia Prague[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Sp. Covilha[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Santa Clara - Sp. Covilha[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Sturm[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Kapfenberg - Sturm[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Tigres[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Tigres - Atlante[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]U.N.A.M.[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Toluca - U.N.A.M.[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]04.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Akhisar Belediye G…[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Göztepe - Akhisar Belediye Genclik Spor[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]05.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]H. Tel Aviv[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]H. Tel Aviv - M. Tel Aviv[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]05.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Nantes[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Nantes - Le Havre[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]05.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Olhanense[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Leiria - Olhanense[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]05.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Sportul Stud.[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt - Sportul Stud.[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]05.03.2012[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I've corrected a few dates and deleted some games that I'm not gonna play.
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Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please 3 out of 5 yesterday. A lot of games today. Still awaiting the odds to drop on 2 more teams. Will post the later when they are at playable odds. Here is how it looks: 03mar20122drawsteak.png :hope

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