Jumps Racing - Thursday 16th February 2012

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.30 Leicester - 1pt win Sum Laff @ 7/1 (PP) Posted this a couple of starts back:

2.50 Fontwell - 2pts e/w Sum Laff @ 15/2 (VC) I'm very happy to take on Graduation Night under his double-penalty, as even though he won just the other day by 10l, Jamie Snowden raised concerns about the ground being on the soft side for him, and the winning margin was probably exaggerated by the conditions. As well as this, he didn't exactly beat much. The 2nd horse was having his first run since April, and the third horse seemingly doesn't stay three miles very well. With the extra weight, similar conditions, a better race and a testing run just a couple of days ago, I think he'll be beaten. Now, what he will be beaten with was my next question. There are a few with sound chances, but Charlie Mann's Sum Laff caught my eye more than any other runner. This unexposed horse won his pointing debut back in April 2009 from a horse now rated 115 under rules, with this 2nd placed horse already having a run under his belt. Obviously this is a very tentative argument but Sum Laff goes chasing off a 3lb lower mark than that. Worth mentioning, however. He was off the track for nearly two years having been purchased for a lofty £40,000, but returned as if all of his ability remained, for all he ran as if needing the run. He was by no means weak in the market though - sent off an 8/1 shot for his hurdling debut. He finished 12 1/2l off the winner in 4th with the winner rated in the 130s under both jumping codes now. Sum Laff faced quite a stiff task on his second try over hurdles, when 3rd to Radetsky March and Romulus D'Artaix. The pair were 15l of Sum Laff, but he shaped with promise again, and it was always going to be a struggle facing an experienced (over fences) 126 rated animal and a decent type who has since been placed in both runs subsequently. Things came together a month later, however, as Sum Laff found a more realistic opening at Fontwell. He won by 1 1/4l from a horse who has won 3 times since (rated 120 over hurdles and 130 over fences now). He was noticeably green through the race though, so the winning margin can be upgraded really. He wasn't brilliant at his hurdles, and wandered around between them. He didn't look straight-forward up the run-in but stayed on determinedly enough to win the race. His jumping didn't really improve next time, when he seemed to find the 3 mile trip around Exeter a little bit too taxing. The losing margin of 21l was exaggerated by the fact the winner won by 11l and is now rated 18lbs higher off a mark of 143 after a subsequent victory in a good Cheltenham race. Sum Laff still looked like he had plenty to learn, but it was quite a different test to a furlong shorter around Fontwell - for all he looked to stay well on that occasion. He's shown a fondness for today's track obviously, and always looked like he'd be better over fences. A mark of 112 is one that I feel he can exploit certainly and looks sure to progress seen as this will only be his 5th start under rules. Charlie Mann has a better strike rate with his runners in chases than hurdles, and has had plenty of positive things to say about this gelding. He said on his website last week that: "(He) Really does look very well. Worked upside Masked Man today which he did very nicely. He has been schooling over fences which he has taken to well and hopefully won’t be long before we have him out on the track in a novice chase." Hopefully what he says about him schooling well comes to fruition as if he can brush up his jumping from hurdles to fences, there's no doubt he'll be a better animal over the bigger obstacles. He's been working with horses with better ratings than him (Masked Man rated 130 over fences) so I think the yard think this horse will prove to be better than a 112 animal. He's facing horses with experience over fences, as he's been put straight into handicap company, so this means that he's probably happy with what he's been doing at home. He looked like he'd come on plenty for last season's experience and if he comes back with a bit more professionalism, then he'll be well handicapped to strike on his chasing debut.

Was well-backed on this occasion and ran well to a point on his seasonal/chasing debut. However, he very quickly was pulled up without much encouragement and it was possible he had no more to give on the heavy ground. He jumped well, though. Last time out he was again smashed in the betting to go off 6/4 favourite and was bitterly disappointing. Was beaten a fair way in the end. However, I'm going to give him one final chance now he's been dropped to a mark of 104. This mark is very lenient if he bounces back to his hurdling form, and he's reportedly been a "different horse" in recent weeks. Charlie Mann has been saying he's been working very well, and even described him as going like Shergar a few weeks ago. Hopefully he's back in good form now, and is over whatever has held him back on his last two starts. The ground and trip look in his favour, and I will take a chance that he'll bounce back here in a weaker affair. It seems highly possible that the money will come again based on the vibes coming from the yard, and connections may well want their money back from the last two runs!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Racing - Thursday 16th February 2012 3.15 Musselburgh - 2pts win Civil Unrest @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) The trip is a question mark for this one, but should relish the good ground and the first start in handicap company off a fair mark with Nathan Moscrop taking off a valuable 7lbs. He rode this horse to his best effort in his career to date on his hurdling debut at Kelso. He chased home the smart Simply Ned by 7 lengths - with that horse winning two starts since to be rated 128. This horse has been beaten further on two tries over 2 miles at today's venue, but again, the races worked out strongly. Two starts ago, he was competing in a novice race where the first four horses now with marks are running off 125, 128, 118, and 125. Two others in the top 6 have been in decent form on the flat. He was beaten 12 1/2l that day, which wasn't a bad effort. Was beaten 33l last time behind 121 and 120-rated animals and was only 13l behind another horse rated 125. He's just been meeting nice horses and he can't really see them off from the front. Today he runs in a 0-105 off the ceiling mark, but effectively off 98 with Moscrop on board. Surely is capable of getting involved off this sort of mark should he see out the trip. He's by a dual-purpose sire who stayed well on the flat, and out of an unraced sister to a 2m4f winner over jumps so he does have credentials to get home okay, and if he does, should be there or thereabouts.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jumps Racing - Thursday 16th February 2012 HE'S OUR LAD 3.35 Leicester. 1 point win. Consistent and has the form to win this, so with the addition of blinkers for today, he could win this well if reacting to them. Trip and ground fine and jumps well enough, so looks a strong choice. 5/2 Ladbrokes BOG

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Racing - Thursday 16th February 2012 Civil Unrest jumped great, but not surprisingly, was 2nd. Should be winning soon (when I'm not on)

[betimbet]

Re: Jumps Racing - Thursday 16th February 2012 ul bath time he jumped well maybe try holdin up tactics next time