Flat Racing 8th Feb

[skylark2009]

2.20 Kempton - Deveze - This is a scrappy looking race with only Deveze having had a recent win. She won over course and distance on her penultimate start when being ridden by R Kingscote. He's aboard again today and his three rides on Deveze have resulted in an 8th, 2nd and a 1st. Low drawn numbers tend to be favoured here and Deveze is drawn in three. Bobbyow is another drawn low and may be capable of running into a place, third in a grade 5 race on his penultimate start and 4th last time out when less than a ½ length behind Do More Business in a grade 6 at Lingfield. The drop back to 5f and his draw may see some improvement today. 2.20 Kempton: Deveze - 0.5pts E/w @ 7/1 Bet365 (BOG) 2.20 Kempton Bobbyow - 0.5pts E/w @ 8/1 Bet365 (BOG) 5.00 Kempton - Spartilla - He won last time out here in a 1m 3f selling handicap, and is up 3lbs for that win and in a higher grade of race today (some improvement required here). He has previously finished ahead of Samasana on two occasions, who franked the form when winning yesterday at Southwell. He has previously beaten Cotes Du Rhone and is better weighted on form today. Trainer, J Given currently has 6 wins and 3 palces from his last 20 runners for a L.S.P of 5.38pts and 5 wins and 3 places from his last 20 runners here at Kamton for a L.S.P of 19.25pts. The live danger is Astroscarlet, a progressive looking filly who has been in excellent form lately but a line through Cotes Du Rhone may indicate that Spartlla may be 1lb or two ahead today. 5.00 Kempton: Spartilla - 1pt win @ 2/1 Bet365 (BOG) 6.00 Kempton - Sherjawy - He is a 5 time course and distance winner and also a winner of a 5f race here. So, in all. six of his eleven career wins have been here at Kempton. He been steadily dropping down in the ratings and is now at 60, 3lbs lower than his last win here at Kempton and 10lbs lower than his highest AW winning rating of 70. He's in stall 2 and may have a draw advantage as a result. 6.00 Kempton: Sherjawy - 1pt E/w @ 14/1 Bet365 (BOG) 6.00 Kempton - Dvinsky and Mack's Sister are the two under consideration here, Dvinsky is an 8 time course winner with 6 of those wins at today's distance. He has finished ahead of Mack's Sister previously and looks to hold her today at the weights. Mack's Sister has two course/distance wins under her belt, is drawn in stall 1 and her sire has 14 wins and 10 places from 84 for an L.S.P. of 40.79pts. Belinsky is running in the race prior to this and it should be interesting to see how he fares, he finished behind both Dvinsky and Mack's Sister in their race, and if running well may frank that form. 6.00 Kempton: Dvinsky - 0.5pts win @ 8/1 Bet365 (BOG) 6.00 Kempton: Mack's Sister - 0.5pts @ 13/2 William Hill (BOG)

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing 8th Feb 2.20 Kempton Free Entry For Betdaq Members Handicap Cl7 5f BOBBYOW @ 38/5 (Betfair) and 6/1 bog Bet365 (opened at 8/1) Bobbyow is a 4yo that made an eyecatching debut for his new yard over C&D one week ago after a 7-month break finishing very well coming from the clouds to snatch a good third in what was a Class 5 Maiden won by Cats Eyes who is a very interesting 3yo filly (very good pedigree) trained by Robert Cowell who had already given a good impression in her first run finishing close behind Mick Channon-trained Gabrial's Bounty (winner nto and rated 70 now) and Sylvester Kirk-trained Dark Castle (beaten by the very interesting Pale Orchid nto and rated 75 now). Bobbyow built on that good effort trying to make it all lto over 6f at Lingfield (5 days ago) just headed last strides (first 4 almost on the same line at the post). Back to his favourite trip (5f), with a perfect draw (2) and off the same mark of his last race (49) Bobbyow stands a very good chance in this race in my opinion. The main danger is the top weight Deveze that achieved her first career win 4 weeks ago over C&D (last to first in the last 2f). She failed to repeat that good performance nto penalised with 6lb. Today she drops 1lb but she looks a filly who needs to wait and see if everything drops fine. Blinkers helped this filly to improve a lot (2nd two months ago over 5f at Wolverhampton wearing first time blinkers and that was her first time in the money) and surely she stands a good chance from a good draw (3) and in such a weak event (0-50 Class 7) especially since she is only one of the two runners with a C&D win by the way I see way more improvements in Bobbyow who has come quite close to very interesting and already high rated young horses in his first out with his new training and produced a gamely effort leading until last strides in a higher quality race lto (0-52 Class 6 over 1f more). Silver Linnet won 3 times in 2009-2010 but her last efforts one year ago were quite poor and she is back after 330 days making her debut today for her new trainer John Butler (with Noel Quinlan before). First time visor and the interesting booking of top jockey Adam Kirby look interesting but it's hard to trust knowing nothing about her. Replicator has won 4 times in his career and twice here at Kempton (last time 13 months ago off today's mark of 50) but always over 6f and his only good effort during this Winter has come again over 6f here off 49 (but actually 42 with jockey's claim) in a Class 7 two months ago. His last two efforts showed again very little (both times with lower marks than today's one again because of jockeys' 3lb and 5lb claims). Luke Morris' booking is interesting but it looks not his trip (never raced over 5f on AW since 2009) and off a high enough mark compared to what he showed in the last 12 months. Green Warrior looks more dangerous than Replicator since he won last Summer over 5f (his only career win so far) off 61 and was a very close second last September off 66 (at his second start of his and actual trained Richard Guest). Green Warrior's still a lightly raced 4yo and his mark dropped to 50 (65 in his third last race). Still he was last in all his last 3 races and never reached the frame in his 5 AW outs. Interesting booking of George Baker (back on track few days ago after a long break) and lowest career mark are two plus but I can't support his chances after his last terrible efforts. White Shift is a very experienced sprinter with 8 wins in his career (3 on AW and one of them at Kempton but over 6f) and is another horse who was racing off marks in the 60s one year ago and has now dropped down to 47 with top jockey Joe Fanning on board. Two big plus are also the very good form of Paul Howling's yard (12932 with his last five runners in the last couple of weeks) and his last race when he finished 3rd of 11 1 1/4L behind Rightcar two weeks ago here over 6f in a better company. White Shift loses another lb from that nice effort that came with cheekpieces back on for the first time since 2010. His last start over 5f was 2 years ago and has to cope with a bad draw (11) especially if he wants to race prominently as he likes to do and did lto. Very dangerous but opposable imho. Good Timin' looks more dangerous for the booking of Jamie Spencer (2-8 when partnering with trainer David Brown) than for his efforts since his best one was a third in a poor maiden at Wolverhampton two months ago and his next and last start finished with a more than disappointing last of then 14 1/2L behind the winner at Southwell (both races over 5f). Headgear off today. Pharoh Jake was 3/4L behind Deveze and well ahead of Porthgwidden Beach on his only start over C&D. His next two efforts have been quite poor (both over 6f) and lto (5 days ago at Lingfield) was very problematic entering the stalls. Still back to the C&D of his best effort has to be respected but with similar terms with Deveze has to be put behind the top weight. Porthgwidden Beach finished 2L behind Deveze (and Pharoh Jake) lto and even if she gets 5lb from her now and is the only other C&D winner (off 4lb higher mark last September) I rate this 4yo trained by Anthony Middleton with less chances especially if she will try again to dictate the tempo as she did lto over C&D when beaten by Deveze. Raimond Ridge has 5 wins in 30 starts on AW (4 at Lingfield and 1 here but over 6f) and his last win was off 65 (45 today) but it came two years ago and all his recent efforts with similar marks (has been racing in the 40s since one year) have showed not a enough to give him a good chance today as he was in the frame only once (3rd) in his last 17 starts (after that last win) and even if quite close to the winners in a couple of starts (good finish lto when 1 1/4L behind the winner) it seems that a win is not up to his potential at the moment especially over 5f (starts slowly and comes off the pace even in 6f and 7f races that are his favourite ones lately). Suhayl Star has 4 wins (3 on AW) at his name but last one came in 2009 and all came over further. Decent 4th four weeks ago over 6f here but very disappointing in his last two starts and looks one of the worst in this race (1lb off the handicap) together with the other bottom weight Jemimaville who is a 5yo mare who has achieved nothing in her career so far (two seconds in 27 starts her best efforts) and was again very poor over C&D last October and in her last over 6f (always here). Raul Da Silva takes 5lb off but she ran already with a 3lb claimer two months ago and showed nothing special (distant 5th) and is 2lb off the handicap today. In short very strong chance for Bobbyow on the evidence of the interesting improvements shown last two starts in better companies with such a low mark of 49. Among his opponents I fear Deveze who won in good style in her second last start over C&D and was well ahead of Porthgwidden Beach and Pharoh Jake and that line stands out among the others in such a poor contest. White Shift is the other main danger while Silver Linnet and Green Warrior could be very dangerous on their old form but can't be blindly trusted knowing nothing special about them.