Premier League Darts - Week 1

[kevshat]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 9 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Player 1[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Player 2[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Hamilton, A v Wade, J (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.62 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.71 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Whitlock, S v Van Barneveld, R (19:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.83 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.04 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Painter, K v Anderson, G (20:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.53 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Lewis, A v Taylor, P (21:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.81 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Alovenac]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Lewis - Taylor I see serious value in Lewis tb. Taylor. Odd from 3.2 is to high at Bwin. Taylor missed a lot of his doubles the last days, Lewis scoring good and had in some matches the same problem as Taylor. But Taylor is not the great player from 2 years ago. I see a lot of value on the Lewis side. 2/10 Lewis tb. Taylor @ 3.20 BWIN

[Alovenac]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Whitlock - van Barneveld Whitlock did very impressive me last days, he throwing very good with some good scores. Yesterday in the final against England, het throws 5 180s in 4 legs. The Aussies smashed the Dutchies yesterday in the semi-finals. Whitlock didn't have a problem with van Barneveld and van der Voort in the best of 7 legs matches. 4/10 Whitlock tb. van Barneveld @ 1.80 ​Interwetten

[Edberg]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 It's gonna be a busy Thursday evening for me and I'm gonna try to share my ideas here for the first time. Andy Hamilton to beat James Wade @ 14/5 Sportingbet, Betfair Impressed by Hamilton's run in the World Championship and he had shown already good signals at the end of the last season. Wade is a super talent and we all know that but he can be a bit rusty at times and his starts in the former Premier League of Darts' campaigns have often been slow. Their last meeting was in the Championship League of Darts 4 months ago and Hamilton won 6-2 while their last two meetings in big events were in the quarter final of the 2010 World Grand Prix (one of the worst seasons for Andy Hamilton) with Wade winning that match 4-1 and in the 2009 Grand Slam of Darts with Hamilton winning that match 5-3. Overall record is 14-8-3 in Wade's favour. Too Big a price to be missed at this stage of the competition. Simon Whitlock to beat Raymond van Barneveld @ 5/6 Sportingbet Simon has been playing fantastic darts of late and he's very close to the fantastic player we admired two years ago especially in his super run at the Ally Pally. His injury gave him probably even a boost and his darts at the World Championship had been just amazing until the Semifinal (lost to Hamilton) and his recent performance in the World Cup has been the best of all the players in Hamburg. Barney showed some good promises both in his first couple of tournaments of the year on the floor and at the World Cup but he's still far from being the big force we admired in the past and probably he will never reach that level again. They met 8 times and Barney beat the Wizard of Oz only twice, the first one was 6 years ago and the last one in last year Premier League of Darts (week 2) while Simon won later on the PL (8-5) and yesterday at Hamburg in the World Cup. The aussie has to be the strong favourite of this match at the moment. Kevin Painter to beat Gary Anderson @ 16/5 Boylesports Painter is the newcomer of this year Premier League and he fully deserves his spot after his super display in the 2011 Players Championship Finals (he won) and the good show in the World Championship too. He has a poor overall record vs Gary (4-11) but he won three of their first 4 meetings before 2010 and their last one in the Players Championship Finals last 16 (easy 8-4 win for the Artist) so most of the losses came in Kevin's worst season and Gary's best one so I'd take them not that much in account at the moment with Kevin surely throwing his best darts ever after that fantastic performance in the World Championship few years ago (losing the final vs Phil Taylor in an epic match) while Gary has been often random and was looking not fully focused on his job a few times in his last performances on the big stage (Players Championship Finals, World Championship and even last weekend in the World Cup in Hamburg where he was very lucky to win a match he had almost lost). Gary's 180s are his trademark but his doubles will let him off more than expected and Kevin can make him pay for this especially in a first round of such a long competition. Huge price and can't be missed imho. I guess Adrian Lewis can't be such a underdog against Phil Taylor at the moment but I will skip that game because Adrian is not a man I like to be on and Phil not the one I like to oppose especially since the relationship the two have. (as far as concerned my stake I use a level stake so 1pt each or 10/10 as you like)

[kevshat]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Some excellent early thoughts in here. Good luck guys :ok

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 I always think each year that there's value to be had in the correct score market in Premier League games. With it being known beforehand who will be throwing first, no backstage throwing for the bull, you're already forearmed with the information. It has been statistically almost twice as likely that a player will clinch a win by holding his own throw than by breaking throw (65.3% - 175 of 268 non whitewash wins since the format changed to the current one in 2006). So people throwing first in the first leg are more likely to win 8-5, 8-3, 8-1; whilst people throwing second in the first leg are more likely to win 8-6, 8-4, 8-2. 8-0s are so rare I won't consider them - there's only been 2 in 6 seasons!! I'll be using that as the basis for my correct score bets each week, and will take 2 x 1.25pt correct score bets in each match. 140pts over the season, hopefully turn a profit :hope Week 1 Andy Hamilton v James Wade Do you oppose the usually slow starting Wade (he's got 1pt in total from his last 3 opening days), or do you side with the theory that Wade is a whole lot more consistent when he is amongst the first 2 matches on stage than when he plays later in the night? Wade has taken 47 points from a possible 58 when he plays in the first 2 matches of the night,whilst taking only 21 of a possible 54 when he plays in the latter 2 matches of the night. Big difference. I'm going with Wade for this one, on that basis of him being the first match on stage - he's only lost 2 of 18 matches in that scenario. Also, despite him being a professional and having such a good run in the Worlds, The Hammer is making his debut in the Premier League, and some degree of nerves would have to be expected. 1.25pts Wade win 8-6 @ 6/1 BlueSq 1.25pts Wade win 8-4 @ 11/2 BlueSq Simon Whitlock v Raymond van Barneveld On current form I envisage Barney facing a fight to avoid the wooden spoon this season. Since he made a final and a semi in Spain last year, he has lost 3 straight at the GSoD, went out in the 2nd round of the PLayers Championship to Scott Rand, went out in the first round of the Worlds to James Richardson, and failed it to make it past the last 16 in both tournaments back in Spain. Whitlock belied his injury at the Worlds to narrowly miss out on a place in the Final, but failed to make an impact in Spain. I think both of these will have as a first priority not to lose this opening match, but if one them is to triumph then I have to side with the Aussie, I simply can't go with Barney at the moment - his all round demeanour, his form, his h2h against Whitlock, I have to go with the Wizard. 1.25pts Whitlock win 8-5 @ 11/2 Stan James 1.25pts Draw 7-7 @ 5/1 bwin Kevin Painter v Gary Anderson Anderson got off to a flier last year, in his debut season, winning his first 4 to set him well on the course for the Semis. Whilst he slowed down a bit towards the end of the regular season, he camed good again in the post-season, despatching Barney and Lewis to claim the title at his first attempt. He's been a bit of a mixed bag recently, with the old demon doubles rearing their ugly head again - however I take him to overcome that against Painter in his first appearance in the PL. Anderson's a good 7.5pt heavier scorer than Painter if they're playing to par, and he should get plenty of chances at doubles. Painter simply wouldn't be here were it not for his Players Championship win, which was somewhat of a bolt out the blue, and I think he'll be fighting it out with Barney for cellar dweller honours come May. Anderson lost his first 2 career clashes with Painter, but has since won 11 of the last 13, and I think he will comfortably make it 12 in 14 in Manchester this week. 1.25pts Anderson win 8-2 @ 8/1 Stan James 1.25pts Anderson win 8-4 @ 5/1 various Adrian Lewis v Phil Taylor Adrian Lewis's status as reigning World Champ didn't prevent him from only scraping through to the Finals week last year, his performances in the Premier League being a mixture of insanely good and just, well, insane. Taylor, meanwhile, has topped the league every year of the PL so far, though that didn't stop him losing one of last season's meetings with Lewis 2-8! That scoreline actually reveals a lot about clashes between these 2 over the years, in that they are rarely close encounters - somebody normally wins comfortably. Obviously Taylor isn't at the dizzy standards he has been for much of his career whilst Jackpot's star is in the ascendancy, but Lewis's record v Taylor makes ghastly reading - 5-33 in 38 meetings. All in all either player could win and I wouldn't be surprised, but backing a close fought win either way would not have paid dividends over the years. Consequently I'm going to take longer odds on each person to win comfortably, which I think would be the +EV play. 1.25pts Lewis win 8-3 @ 20/1 Betfred 1.25pts Taylor win 8-2 @ 12/1 Betfred Good luck all :cheers

[gloryhunters]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Really enjoyed the PL last year and looking forward to the fun and comments again. I haven't really followed any darts since last year, but have dusted off my spreadsheets and hope for some success. It's be hard for the first few weeks as I gather stats on the two new players and get some trends for the season. However, I still having a little flutter on the following: 3 pts S Whitlock v R van Barneveld under 7.5 180s 5/6 at Ladbrokes I think the expected number of games is around 12.5 which means to get to 7.5 they need to average 0.6 180s per leg. Taking any combo of there history gives them a 41% chance of getting this target. So I think there is some value in this line. Lewis v Taylor the big match of the night I know that Taylor isn't the power he use to be, but he can still perform. 6pts highest checkout over 120.5 5/6 at spreadex In this comp, Lewis achieves this in 35% of his matches and Taylor 38%, which means together they should do this 60% of the time, meaning a price slightly less than 1.7 seems fairer. Also, to add into the mix that this is likely to be much tighter than they both play in gives an even more likely event. 6pts over 6.5 180s 4/5 at Bluesquare The number of games is set at 12.7, which means to reach this level they need to get 180s at around 0.52 a game. Taylor history suggest an average of 3.1 and last season was better with a rate of 3.6. Lewis doesn't do as well but still has an average of 0.27. Take any combo of the strike rate from history means they get the required amount around 60% of the time. So again so nice value looks to be on offer.

[Artem]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Where do you find these stats, gloryhunters?

[Tyler]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 I'm loving the statistical based ideas presented so far. Great write-ups all of you. Followed the Premier league feverishly last year. Looking to have a good run this year too. Two for me in the opening week: - 5pts Total 180's (Simon Whitlock vs. Raymond Van Barneveld): Over 6.5 @ 8/11 [WillHill] The markets opened up and had Whitlock at 1.85, I was definitely feeling to get on that but the drop to 1.72 doesn't do much for me at all. I hate going against Barney too, he reminds of Dimitar Berbatov in a way. At the height of his powers he really was one of the best, it's a shame to see him where he is right now. Despite saying this though, I think him and Whitlock have the ability to see off this line of legs. These two are fairly evenly matched. I sense a minimum of 12 legs which should be enough to see these two decent scorers over the line. Whitlock has been in decent form, he really should've reached the final of a major tournament last month and Barney CAN turn it on if he's in the right frame of mind. Seven 180's should be cool here. - 3pts Adrian Lewis (vs. Phil Taylor) @ 2/1 [WillHill] Have to back Lewis at this price to be honest. He is very capable of beating Phil Taylor and on the back of his form I expect him to hit the ground running. He has beaten Taylor in this format before, most notably in the semi-finals of the last edition of the PL and at 3.00, I see a repeat performance. Taylor looked very average against Dave Chisnall in January and I have read in places many see Taylor on the slide. I don't necessarily agree with that but I see Lewis pushing him close tonight. The champ for me.

[kevshat]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 I'm all about the value tonight. Wade's the only favourite I like the look of so I'm taking the rest of them on. 4pts A.Hamilton Most 180's vs J.Wade Evs BetVictor I think even money is perfectly fair for Hamilton to beat Wade in a 180 match. Wade isn't the biggest hitter of 180's around and a lot of the time you'll see him move around the oche to get around blocked darts which doesn't help his chances as to hit a 180 he will need a perfect first and second dart. Hamilton doesn't. The way he throws his darts he forces his third dart through the first two if he needs to. We saw a lot of 180's from the Hammer in the World Championship and with him keen to make a big impression on his Premier League debut I expect us to see quite a few from him tonight. Wade's game is all about devastating finishing. His scoring is done more in 100's and 140's so although I expect Wade to win this match I expect Hamilton to nail the more 180's in the contest. 3pts R.Barneveld to beat S.Whitlock 23/10 Bet365 Stupid price number one. There isn't a standout player in this Premier League anymore. Anyone can beat anyone on any given day so to be getting almost 5/2 about Barneveld beating Whitlock has to be value. Barney hasn't had the best of things in recent times as we all know but he can play the game and if he can get in front of Whitlock then he will be very tough to beat. He only gives in when he falls too far behind so I expect the runner up in the league stage last year to be competitive here. Whitlock is playing fantastically well but he's no 4/6 shot to win this match in my eyes because he can blow up on doubles at the wrong times as we saw in the World Championship when van Gerwen came back at him and when Hamilton collared him. Barneveld isn't playing as badly as his results recently have suggested. He's walked into some freak performances from opponents but all things being equal the great Dutchman isn't bigger than 2/1 to win this one tonight. 3pts K.Painter to beat G.Anderson 3/1 Boylesports I'm happy to take 3/1 on Painter all day long. We know Painter will be well up for this. Do we know the same about Anderson? Well he should be, there's no doubt about that. He's defending the only PDC major he's won so he should be up for it but he's looked a troubled man on stage for far too long to me. Artut should've beaten him in the World Championship, Petersen could've before Whitlock did. I don't think Anderson can give Painter the chances he gave those players in the World Championship because if he does Painter will punish him like he did when they met in the Players Championship, in a match Anderson lost. Not only is Anderson having double trouble but his dominance on his scoring isn't there at the minute either. 180's are interspersed with lower than 100 scores and he's keeping opponents in matches. Painter is dangerous at the best of times especially when he's out to prove he belongs in this tournament. I think Painter is too big a price in this one and well worth a punt. 4pts A.Lewis to beat P.Taylor 2/1 Betfred I can't believe Lewis is the outsider in this match. Not as big an outsider as he is anyway. Something isn't quite right with Taylor at the minute. He's looking a bit weak and that's unlike him. Certainly his invincibility has gone and one of the reasons for that is Adrian Lewis. Since he powered past Taylor in the World Grand Prix semi final in 2010 Taylor's become more and more vulnerable and I think the world champion is a cracking price in this match. We saw at the weekend in the World Cup, Lewis carried England in that tournament and Taylor really didn't play well at all and looked quite lethargic. Whether his enthusiasm is disappearing or whatever it's not good signs for him. Lewis is becoming a real big game player and there's still no bigger game than this despite Taylor's recent woes. I think we'll see the best of Adrian Lewis in this match and if we do I think it will be too much for Taylor.

[gloryhunters]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1

Where do you find these stats' date=' [b']gloryhunters?

The webiste of historic matches is http://www.pdc.tv/page/PremierLeague/0,,10180,00.html I just built a spreadsheet database of the maches and pull out the stats from there

[fishy25]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Didn't even know the Hamilton-Wade match had started given all of the excitement of the writeups I've done :lol Do have Hamilton to hit the most 180s in that one so hopefully that comes through. Having 4 others as well tonight. Considered Painter but not confident enough in taking anything in that match. Simon Whitlock vs Raymond van Barneveld- Over 6.5 180s- 8/11 Blue Square- (4/10) Highest Match Checkout Over 120.5- 5/6 Blue Square- (3/10) This should be a pretty good match to watch and although I fancy Whitlock to win, it's these two markets I'm more interested in. I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least 13 legs minimum here and in that time, it should give both players time to find their scoring range in which I'd expect at least 7 180s. Whitlock as we saw at the World Championship was hitting 180s for fun on one leg and although he didn't hit tons and tons of maximums at the World Cup, he was still scoring well and under the slightly longer format, he should be able to notch up a fair few more. Barney with his old darts is certainly no slouch when it comes to hitting 180s either. He hit 5 in the World Championship in just 3 sets where he lost to James Richardson and he was scoring well at the weekend. Both players should be well up for this, and when both get going, they should be able to muster up the 7 180s required. I'd also fancy a decent checkout as well. Whitlock you'll often see leave 170 and although I'm not saying he'll checkout on that, he usually checkouts out at least once a match on a pretty sizable score. Barney as well can checkout well, and hit a couple of really impressive checkouts in Germany at the weekend. Expect a good game between these two so I'll hope they deliver. Adrian Lewis to beat Phil Taylor- 15/8 Bet365- (3/10) Adrian Lewis Highest Match Checkout Over 101.5- 5/6 William Hill- (5/10) Yeah missed the bigger price on the world champ here but the price is still huge in my eyes. I can't add much to what has been said before me in that Taylor struggled at the weekend and really didn't play well for any consistent period of time. Lewis carried him for quite a bit of the time and those singles defeats that Taylor suffered really doesn't give me much confidence in him. Lewis on the other hand is turning into arguably the biggest player on the tour and is becoming more and more difficult to beat, especially on the big stage in the big matches. The Power is missing doubles far more than he has ever done before and that just says to me that something really isn't right with his game so at this price, I have to back the world champ. This line set for Lewis' checkout looks extremely low to me as well. For some time now we've seen him hit big checkouts of 141s, 161s and even 170s at times and in winning 8 legs like I expect him to, a finish of just above 100 looks extremely achievable. It's a pretty standard 3 dart finish and even when Taylor isn't playing well, you'll still need to hit some decent finishes and I'd be hugely surprised if Lewis didn't do that in this match.

[Edberg]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 What a night! What a game! That's why we love darts ;)

[Alovenac]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Unlucky picks with Lewis and Whitlock, next week better.

[kevshat]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Some great calls in here and some excellent calls. Top shouts on Hamilton and Painter, Edberg :clap:clap.

[Tyler]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Unreal night of darts. Well done to all Painter backers. Slightly gutted Lewis didn't win from such a commanding position but such is life. Well done all in the green :clap

[Edberg]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1

Some great calls in here and some excellent calls. Top shouts on Hamilton and Painter' date=' Edberg :clap:clap.[/quote'] +5pt and 166.7% ROI for the first night so not bad at all (Whitlock looked about to go in too but Barney deserved that draw) but I've been more excited for the fantastic darts we've seen than for my bets. Whitlock vs Barney and Lewis vs Taylor were among the best matches I've ever seen in PL. Can't wait for the second night ;)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Well done winners :clap -2.5pts for me last night, although I thought I was going to hit the 20/1 big one (Lewis 8-3) at one stage, so can only imagine how those on Lewis just to win felt :( Some outstanding darts last night, roll on next week :cheers

[Dreamkiller]

Re: Premier League Darts - Week 1 Hey guys I have posted this on the poker chat thread as well .... just to give you guys and Samba :lol to join my team :) I wanted to give my fellow poker players on PL the chance to join my team. You have to play virtual darts against other teams and you get 10pts per win. If the team gets in the top 20 by the end of April then you all win tickets , travel and overnight stay to the Play - offs. There are also weekly chances to win tickets I think if we are in the top 20. There are only 42 teams where most are single players. All I need is your email address if you can pm me and I will invite you. You can play as much or as little as you like but quite a nice prize at the end of it for all the top 20 teams. No cost , no catch :) The first 3 people to pm me get in the team.