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System based on Pt %age


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This is a fixed system that I came up with the other day. Ive only back tested it for one week so not too much to prove it with so will only be paper testing for the moment. Last week would have shown a profitable 7 from 8 winners and a yield of 50%. (The loser being the Reading-Ipswich draw) Obviously I dont expect the long term return to be anywhere near this high though. The system involves backing teams that have collected 75% or more of their possible home points. These selections are then backed when playing at home. The only exception is if they are facing a side that has collected 75% or more of their possible away points. All bets will be to a level stake of 1pt. I will be starting with a 100pt bank. I am also looking at a few other versions such as backing against teams with less than 25% of away points, but for now Im only posting this one as it's the one I have most hope for. Selections will only be made for league games and therefore will not count any cup matches.

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Re: 75%+ Home Points Not the best start with 2 draws. The system as a whole ( which is also lookingh at teams with 75%+ away pts and less than 25% home and away) brought up 21 selections last weekend, with only 1 team losing so it may also work out well as a laying proposition if the win ratio doesnt work out well enough. Im going to record wins,draws and losses in results so I can see how many of the lost bets would have won as lays. The strikerate though will still be recorded as for winning bets. Funnily enough, the less than 25% away pts part I mentioned(that I had less faith in) brought up 1 selection tonight and that one won. Selections (25th-27th) Brentford - Barnsley 1-1 Returns: 0pts Yeovil - Rochdale 2-2 Returns: 0pts Total Stake: 2pts Total Returns: 0pts Profit/Loss: -2pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 98pts Profit: -2pts Stakes: 2pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -100% No. of bets:2 Winners:0 Draws:2 Losers:0 SR:0.00%

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Re: 75%+ Home Points Ive had a change of heart and decided I will include all parts to the system to start with, removing any, if and when they appear non profitable. Selections will be listed for each part and results will be recorded for each individual part and for the whole system together. So here's a brief explanation for each. 75% Home = Sides playing at home that have collected 75% or more of their home points so far. Back. 25% Away = Sides playing away that have only collected 25% or less of their away points so far. Oppose. 75% Away = Sides playing away that have collected 75% or more of their away points so far. Back. 25% Home = Sides playing at home that have only collected 25% or less of their home points so far. Oppose. Matches can qualify under more than 1 category i.e. Home team has 75+ at home, away team has

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Re: System based on Pt %age Selections are in Bold. Selection (28th - 31st Jan) Home 75% Luton - Tranmere 6/5 (Stan James) Scunthorpe - Boston 8/11 (P.Power) Rangers - Livingston 1/8 (B365) Gretna - East Fife 1/6 (W.Hills) Away 25% Bristol C - Chesterfield 8/13 (W.Hills) Swindon - Stockport 7/10 (W.Hills) Cambridge - Kidderminster 6/5 (Stan James) Rangers - Livingston 1/8 (B365) Inverness - Dunfermline 11/10 (P.Power) Dundee Utd - Dundee 13/10 (W.Hills) Partick - Raith 8/15 (Lads) Forfar - Berwick 4/5 (Lads) Gretna - East Fife 1/6 (W.Hills) Elgin - Albion 8/11 (B365) Home 25% Arbroath - Ayr 6/5 (Lads) East Stirling - Queens Park 4/6 (P.Power) Away 75% Ross Co - Falkirk 5/6 (Lads) Stenhousemuir - Peterhead 2/5 (Coral) Kilmarnock - Celtic 2/7 (B365) Total Stake: 19pts New Bank: 79pts

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Re: System based on Pt %age Results (28th - 31st Jan) Home 75% Luton - Tranmere 1-1 Returns: 0pts Scunthorpe - Boston 1-1 Returns: 0pts Rangers - Livingston 3-0 Returns: 1.13pts Gretna - East Fife 4-0 Returns: 1.17pts Away 25% Bristol C - Chesterfield 2-3 Returns: 0pts Swindon - Stockport 3-0 Returns: 1.70pts Cambridge - Kidderminster 1-3 Returns: 0pts Rangers - Livingston 3-0 Returns: 1.13pts Inverness - Dunfermline 2-0 Returns: 2.10pts Dundee Utd - Dundee 2-2 Returns: 0pts Partick - Raith 4-1 Returns: 1.53pts Forfar - Berwick 0-2 Returns: 0pts Gretna - East Fife 4-0 Returns: 1.17pts Elgin - Albion 1-1 Returns: 0pts Home 25% Arbroath - Ayr 2-0 Returns: 0pts East Stirling - Queens Park 3-1 Returns: 0pts Away 75% Ross Co - Falkirk 0-1 Returns: 1.83pts Stenhousemuir - Peterhead 1-1 Returns: 0pts Kilmarnock - Celtic 0-1 Returns: 1.29pts Total Stake: 19pts Total Returns: 13.05pts Profit/Loss: -5.95pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 92.05pts Profit: -7.95pts Stakes: 21pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -37.86% No. of bets:21 Winners:9 Draws:7 Losers:5 SR:42.86% Average Odds:1.68 Average Win Odds:1.31

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Re: System based on Pt %age Selection (1st - 3rd Feb) Home 75% No selections Away 25% Fulham - Aston Villa 5/4 (B365) West Brom - Crystal Palace 5/4 (W.Hills) Birmingham - Southampton 10/11 (B365) Everton - Norwich 4/7 (B365) Home 25% Stockport - Bournemouth 5/4 (Stan James) Away 75% Blackburn - Chelsea 8/15 (Stan James) Total Stake: 6pts New Bank: 86.05pts

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Re: System based on Pt %age Results (1st - 3rd Feb) Home 75% No selections Away 25% Fulham - Aston Villa 1-1 Returns: 0pts West Brom - Crystal Palace 2-2 Returns: 0pts Birmingham - Southampton 2-1 Returns: 1.91pts Everton - Norwich Returns: 1-0 Returns: 1.57pts Home 25% Stockport - Bournemouth 2-2 Returns: 0pts Away 75% Blackburn - Chelsea 0-1 Returns: 1.53pts Total Stake: 6pts Total Returns: 5.01pts Profit/Loss: -0.99pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 91.06pts Profit: -8.94pts Stakes: 27pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -33.11% No. of bets:27 Winners:12 Draws:10 Losers:5 SR:44.44% Average Odds:1.74 Average Win Odds:1.40

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Re: System based on Pt %age Selection (4th - 7th Feb) Home 75% Chelsea - Man City 2/7 (SkyBet) Man Utd - Birmingham 2/7 (B365) Reading - Plymouth 8/13 (BlueSq) Hull - Bristol C 8/11 (Lads) Brentford - MK Dons 4/7 (B365) Gretna - Elgin 1/8 (BlueSq) Peterhead - Cowdenbeath 2/7 (W.Hills) Away 25% Norwich - West Brom 13/10 (B365) Watford - Gillingham 5/6 (BlueSq) Brentford - MK Dons 4/7 (B365) Peterborough - Stockport 10/11 (W.Hills) Chester - Rushden EVS (B365) Scunthorpe - Kidderminster 4/7 (Lads) Northampton - Cambridge 4/7 (Vic Chandler) Albion - East Stirling EVS (B365) Home 25% Berwick - Arbroath 11/5 (SkyBet) Away 75% No Selections Total Stake: 16pts New Bank: 75.06pts

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Re: System based on Pt %age Results (4th - 7th Feb) Home 75% Chelsea - Man City 0-0 Returns: 0pts Man Utd - Birmingham 2-0 Returns: 1.29pts Reading - Plymouth 0-0 Returns: 0pts Hull - Bristol C 1-1 Returns: 0pts Brentford - MK Dons 1-0 Returns: 1.57pts Gretna - Elgin 2-1 Returns: 1.13pts Peterhead - Cowdenbeath 1-1 Returns: 0pts Away 25% Norwich - West Brom 3-2 Returns: 2.30pts Watford - Gillingham 2-0 Returns: 1.83pts Brentford - MK Dons 1-0 Returns: 1.57pts Peterborough - Stockport 2-1 Returns: 1.91pts Chester - Rushden 3-1 Returns: 2.00pts Scunthorpe - Kidderminster 2-1 Returns: 1.57pts Northampton - Cambridge 2-2 Returns: 0pts Albion - East Stirling 1-1 Returns: 0pts Home 25% Berwick - Arbroath 2-3 Returns: 3.20pts Away 75% No Selections Total Stake: 16pts Total Returns: 18.37pts Profit/Loss: 2.37pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 93.43pts Profit: -6.57pts Stakes: 43pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -15.28% No. of bets:43 Winners:22 Draws:16 Losers:5 SR:51.16% Average Odds:1.74 Average Win Odds:1.60

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Re: System based on Pt %age Results (8th - 9th Feb) Home 75% Brechin - Arbroath 4-3 Returns: 1.44pts Away 25% Bradford - MK Dons 1-4 Returns: 0pts Bury - Shrewsbury 0-0 Returns: 0pts Home 25% No Selections Away 75% No Selections Total Stake: 3pts Total Returns: 1.44pts Profit/Loss: -1.56pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 91.87pts Profit: -8.13pts Stakes: 46pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -17.67% No. of bets:46 Winners:23 Draws:17 Losers:6 SR:50% Average Odds:1.74 Average Win Odds:1.59

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Re: System based on Pt %age Selection (11th - 13th Feb) Home 75% Ipswich - Leicester 8/11 (Stan James) Tranmere - Colchester 4/7 (Corals) Rangers - Hibernian 2/7 (Hills) Falkirk - Hamilton 4/9 (Corals) Brechin - Dumbarton 2/5 (Hills) Away 25% Portsmouth - Aston Villa 13/10 (B365) Arsenal - Crystal Palace 1/4 (Lads) Blackburn - Norwich 5/6 (Hills) Plymouth - Rotherham 4/5 (Lads) Bristol C - Walsall 8/11 (PaddyPower) Grimsby - Shrewsbury 5/6 (Stan James) Livingston - Dundee Utd 7/5 (Hills) Elgin - East Fife 5/4 (Lads) Cowdenbeath - Albion 4/9 (Corals) Home 25% Raith - Clyde 8/11 (Paddy Power) East Stirling - Montrose 6/5 (Lads) Away 75% Everton - Chelsea 5/6 (B365) Inverness - Celtic 1/4 (BlueSq) Queens Park - Peterhead 4/7 (Lads) Total Stake: 19pts New Bank: 72.87pts

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Re: System based on Pt %age Results (11th - 14th Feb) Home 75% Ipswich - Leicester 2-1 Returns: 1.73pts Tranmere - Colchester 1-1 Returns: 0pts Rangers - Hibernian 3-0 Returns: 1.29pts Falkirk - Hamilton 1-1 Returns: 0pts Brechin - Dumbarton 0-2 Returns: 0pts Away 25% Portsmouth - Aston Villa 1-2 Returns: 0pts Arsenal - Crystal Palace 5-1 Returns: 1.25pts Blackburn - Norwich 3-0 Returns: 1.83pts Plymouth - Rotherham 1-1 Returns: 0pts Bristol C - Walsall 0-1 Returns: 0pts Grimsby - Shrewsbury 0-1 Returns: 0pts Livingston - Dundee Utd 0-2 Returns: 0pts Elgin - East Fife 2-1 Returns: 2.25pts Cowdenbeath - Albion 1-2 Returns: 0pts Home 25% Raith - Clyde 3-3 Returns: 0pts East Stirling - Montrose 1-2 Returns: 2.20pts Away 75% Everton - Chelsea 0-1 Returns: 1.83pts Inverness - Celtic P-P Queens Park - Peterhead 1-1 Returns: 0pts Total Stake: 18pts Total Returns: 12.38pts Profit/Loss: -5.62pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 86.25pts Profit: -13.75pts Stakes: 64pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -21.48% No. of bets:64 Winners:30 Draws:22 Losers:12 SR:46.88% Average Odds:1.74 Average Win Odds:1.63

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Re: System based on Pt %age Resultss (15th - 17th Feb) Home 75% Hartlepool - Luton 2-3 Returns: 0pts Away 25% Torquay - Peterborough 2-1 Returns: 2.23pts East Fife - East Stirling 2-0 Returns: 1.67pts Home 25% No selections Away 75% No selections Total Stake: 3pts Total Returns: 3.90pts Profit/Loss: 0.90pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 87.15pts Profit: -12.85pts Stakes: 67pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -19.18% No. of bets:67 Winners:32 Draws:22 Losers:13 SR:47.76% Average Odds:1.76 Average Win Odds:1.65

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Re: System based on Pt %age Selections (18th - 20th Feb) Home 75% Preston - Ipswich 13/8 (SkyB) Hull - Wrexham 4/7 (Lads) Scunthorpe - Leyton Orient 8/11 (S.James) Celtic - Rangers 6/5 (B365) Gretna - Montrose 1/8 (P.Power) Peterhead - Elgin 3/10 (W.Hills) Away 25% Walsall - MK Dons 10/11 (S.James) Oldham - Stockport 8/11 (Lads) Notts.County - Rushden 5/6 (Lads) Lincoln - Cambridge 8/15 (W.Hills) Shrewsbury - Kidderminster 10/11 (S.James) Dundee Utd - Inverness 6/5 (B365) Kilmarnock - Dunfermline 10/11 (W.Hills) Hibernian - Dundee 8/13 (B365) Aberdeen - Livingston 8/13 (Lads) Airdrie - Raith 4/7 (SkyB) Stenhousemuir - East Stirling 8/15 (Coral) Home 25% Rotherham - Derby 11/10 (B365) Berwick - Brechin 8/11 (B365) Away 75% Queen OT South - Falkirk 5/6 (SkyB) Total Stake: 20pts New Bank: 67.15pts

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Re: System based on Pt %age Results (18th - 20th Feb) Home 75% Preston - Ipswich 1-1 Returns: 0pts Hull - Wrexham 2-1 Returns: 1.57pts Scunthorpe - Leyton Orient 1-0 Returns: 1.73pts Celtic - Rangers 0-2 Returns: 0pts Gretna - Montrose 4-1 Returns: 1.13pts Peterhead - Elgin VOID - ABANDONED Away 25% Walsall - MK Dons 0-0 Returns: 0pts Oldham - Stockport 1-2 Returns: 0pts Notts.County - Rushden 1-1 Returns: 0pts Lincoln - Cambridge 2-1 Returns: 1.53pts Shrewsbury - Kidderminster 4-2 Returns: 1.91pts Dundee Utd - Inverness 1-1 Returns: 0pts Kilmarnock - Dunfermline 2-1 Returns: 1.91pts Hibernian - Dundee 4-0 Returns: 1.62pts Aberdeen - Livingston 2-0 Returns: 1.62pts Airdrie - Raith 2-1 Returns: 1.57pts Stenhousemuir - East Stirling 3-2 Returns: 1.53pts Home 25% Rotherham - Derby 1-3 Returns: 2.1pts Berwick - Brechin 2-1 Returns: 0pts Away 75% Queen OT South - Falkirk 1-1 Returns: 0pts Total Stake: 19pts Total Returns: 18.22pts Profit/Loss: -0.78pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 86.37pts Profit: -13.63pts Stakes: 86pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -15.85% No. of bets:86 Winners:43 Draws:27 Losers:16 SR:50% Average Odds:1.76 Average Win Odds:1.65

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Re: System based on Pt %age Selections (22nd - 24th Feb) Home 75% Ipswich - Watford 8/15 (StanJames) Tranmere - Huddersfield 8/13 (W.Hills) Hartlepool - Brentford EVS (P.Power) Luton - Walsall 1/2 (P.Power) Yeovil - Scunthorpe 5/6 (P.Power) Away 25% West Brom - Southampton 11/8 (StanJames) Bristol C - Oldham 4/6 (W.Hills) Luton - Walsall 1/2 (P.Power) Sheff Wed - Peterborough 8/15 (SkyBet) Home 25% East Stirling - Stenhousemuir 4/5 (P.Power) Stockport - Chesterfield 6/4 (Lads) Away 75% No selections Total Stake: 11pts New Bank: 75.37pts

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Re: System based on Pt %age Resultss (22nd - 24th Feb) Home 75% Ipswich - Watford 1-2 Returns: 0pts Tranmere - Huddersfield 3-0 Returns: 1.62pts Hartlepool - Brentford 3-1 Returns: 2.00pts Luton - Walsall 1-0 Returns: 1.50pts Yeovil - Scunthorpe 4-3 Returns: 1.83pts Away 25% West Brom - Southampton 0-0 Returns: 0pts Bristol C - Oldham 5-1 Returns: 1.67pts Luton - Walsall 1-0 Returns: 1.50pts Sheff Wed - Peterborough 2-1 Returns: 1.53pts Home 25% East Stirling - Stenhousemuir - VOID - ABANDONED Stockport - Chesterfield 1-2 Returns: 2.50pts Away 75% No selections Total Stake: 10pts Total Returns: 14.15pts Profit/Loss: 4.15pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 90.52pts Profit: -9.48pts Stakes: 96pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -9.88% No. of bets:96 Winners:51 Draws:28 Losers:17 SR:53.13% Average Odds:1.76 Average Win Odds:1.67

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Re: System based on Pt %age Selections (25th - 28th Feb) Home 75% Man Utd - Portsmouth 1/4 (S.James) Ipswich - QPR 4/7 (W.Hills) Hull - Colchester 8/15 (B365) Brentford - Sheff Wed 6/4 (SkyBet) Rangers - Kilmarnock 1/7 (W.Hills) Brechin - Stirling Albion 8/11 (Lads) Away 25% Sheff Utd - Rotherham 8/13 (W.Hills) Huddersfield - Oldham 10/11 (S.James) Chesterfield - Peterboro 8/11 (Lads) Wrexham - MK Dons 6/5 (S.James) Rochdale - Kiddersminster 4/6 (S.James) Albion - East Fife 6/5 (Lads) Home 25% Stockport - Hartlepool 6/5 (S.James) East Stirling - Gretna 1/6 (P.Power) Away 75% Montrose - Peterhead 2/5 (Lads) Total Stake: 15pts New Bank: 75.52pts

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Re: System based on Pt %age Results (25th - 28th Feb) Home 75% Man Utd - Portsmouth 2-1 Returns: 1.25pts Ipswich - QPR 0-2 Returns: 0pts Hull - Colchester 2-0 Returns: 1.53pts Brentford - Sheff Wed 3-3 Returns: 0pts Rangers - Kilmarnock 2-1 Returns: 1.14pts Brechin - Stirling Albion 5-3 Returns: 1.73pts Away 25% Sheff Utd - Rotherham 1-0 Returns: 1.62pts Huddersfield - Oldham 2-1 Returns: 1.91pts Chesterfield - Peterboro 1-3 Returns: 0pts Wrexham - MK Dons 0-0 Returns: 0pts Rochdale - Kiddersminster 1-1 Returns: 0pts Albion - East Fife - VOID - ABANDONED Home 25% Stockport - Hartlepool 1-0 Returns: 0pts East Stirling - Gretna - VOID - ABANDONED Away 75% Montrose - Peterhead 0-2 Returns: 1.4pts Total Stake: 13pts Total Returns: 10.58pts Profit/Loss: -2.42pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 88.10pts Profit: -11.90pts Stakes: 109pts Av.Stake: 1pts Yield: -10.92% No. of bets:109 Winners:58 Draws:31 Losers:20 SR:53.21% Average Odds:1.76 Average Win Odds:1.65

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