Jumps Racing - 1st Feb

[Edberg]

1.05 Down Royal Follow Down Royal On Facebook Handicap Chase 3m MISTER FIRST 4/1 bog (Ladbrokes, Bet365, Boylesports) An interesting handicap chase opens today's meeting at Down Royal. In my opinion two horses stand out of the 13 runners: Mister First and Profit Margin. Both are available at 4/1 and are the market leaders at the moment. My choice goes to Mister First because the French-bred 6yo trained by Robert Alan Hennessy seems to me more able to improve since his last runs and on board he gets again Andrew Lynch while Profit Margin has Mr Quinlan but the main reason is their line with Sumkindasuprstar that raced twice against Profit Margin in his third and second last start and last time against Mister First. In the "matches" with Profit Margin Sumkindasuprstar comfortably beat him 4 3/4L when they finished first and second in a 20f Hcap Chase on Heavy ground at Limerick on Boxing Day with Sumkindasuprstar carrying 2lb more than Profit Margin. The second time has been the last race ran by Profit Margin three weeks ago at Fairyhouse a 21f Hcap Chase on ground Soft/Heavy Sumkindasuprstar had to carry 9lb more and finished just third behind the winner Profit Margin who beat his rival this time by 6L especially thanks to a better finish. Mister First met Sumkindasuprstar in his last race ran at Limerick one week ago, it was a 3m Hcap Chase on Heavy ground, the first ever handicap chase for Mister First and the first time Andrew Lynch was in his saddle. Eoin Doyle's Come To The party (now rated 123) won that race with Mister First second 7L behind the winner and Sumkindasuprstar third 19L behind my selection carrying just 5lb more than Mister First. Hard to give a strong value to the lines of the horses racing for the first times in handicaps but still that puts my horse well ahead of Profit Margin in my opinion and that was only his first ever handicap chase. Surely the trip is not such a big advantage for my selection as Profit Margin never raced over 3m while Mister First did it in his last race and very well as written above but Profit Margin will surely enjoy the step up in trip as he stayed very well in both his last two starts improving a lot from the previous one also for the longer distance. Profit Margin is an improving type as well as Mister First, both won PTP at the start of their career and both are lightly (actually Profit Margin will have his 7th start chasing and Mister First his 4th). Profit Margin has a better curriculum over hurdles but I rate Mister First able to more improvements handicapping and so far he jumped better than Profit Margin who was quite lucky last time out when he had a bad blunder at the first fence but escaped the fall to go on winning. Moreover Mister First's OR has gone up 5lb after his debut in handicap chase while Profit Margin has to face a 9lb raise after his last win. A close match between these two but I'm happy to side with Mister First's chances with Andrew Lynch on board. Of course there are 11 horses against these two and few of them stand their own fair chances but I rate their chances all way smaller than the two market leaders.

[skylark2009]

Re: Jumps Racing - 1st Feb 1.50 Newcastle - Strathaird - He's been in good form lately under today's 10lb claiming jockey with three rides and three places including a win. He's won twice over the distance and shouldn't be inconvenienced by the going today. The favourite, Hole In One and Strathaird have both collateral form with Tipsy Indian and Prince Tam here, while Tipsy Indian has finished ahead of both Hole In One and Strathaird his current form looks scrappy and he may be in decline and really needs to improve today. The line through Prince Tam is interesting as both the favourite and Strathaird have both previously finished ahead and both look to be ahead today in the weights, but the finishing distances between each pair suggests that Strathaird may be better in at the weights with Hole In One today.

1.50 Newcastle: Strathaird - 1pt win @ 5/1 Coral