Flat Racing 1st Feb

[chris34]

5.20 Kempton Decent looking handicap for the grade with no shortage of pace with Megalala an out and out front runner with Peponi and Buxfizz all likely to be ridden fairly prominent. Focail Maith appeared to run a career best on the back of solid efforts this winter last time out, the form of that race not worked out that great and it was a falsely run race with a slow time and will need another career best in a much stronger race under a 6lb penalty. King Of Windsor comes from a stable that does well with other yards cast's off and he ran an encouraging effort last time out on first try at this trip again it wasnt the truest run race so does still have stamina to prove at this trip, up a 1lb for that and now makes debut for new yard and looks likely to find one or two too good again. Buxfizz won a seller on penultimate start in good style, he was well in at the weights that day if putting his best foot forward, was sold to another stable after that win but was a no show back in a handicap at the weekend and is left proving something now. Megalala is unlikely to get a soft lead in this field especially coming from stall 9 and looks plenty high enough in the weights at the moment. Peponi has been consistent but generally well held, handicapper dropped her 2lb for recent uninspiring run and now has stamina to prove stepped up in trip. Lisahane Bog landed a big gamble back in November in a race which was rather gifted to him the way in panned out and has since struggled off an 8lb higher mark, handicapper finally dropped him 2lb but never one to trust but should get a good gallop here if anywhere near his best. Edgeworth is a reliable yardstick around the AW circuit but he is making his reappearance rather later than most and will perhaps need the run and has done most of his winning in much weaker races. So that leaves The Mongoose who has made an encouraging start for his new yard in stronger races than this, did the best of those held up last time out and despite being 1lb higher should make a bold bid with an assured decent gallop here and top AW jockey booked and Evans yard in good form. 3pt win The Mongoose (7/2 advised earlier on twitter now best priced 11/4 VC) 5.50 Wolverhampton Awful looking race but one of these looks good value in the betting in my opinion and wouldnt be surprised to see her go off a lot shorter in this company. Teen Ager is much better than most of these at his best but long way below his best when last seen, did manage to win 3 starts ago that was off just a 2lb lower mark but 2 runs after that uninspiring and been off the track for nearly 3 months again and never showed much when fresh. Sunset Boulevard has won 6 times on the AW but is 0 from 7 around here and never tried this trip before and all winning has been over further and been well below his best recently. Cairanne looks well worth a try at this trip having stayed on well last time out, that wasnt much of a race nor is this but she didnt look to put it all in head carriage was quite high when asked for effort although did consent to run on in the end but may benefit from some headgear and certainly wouldnt want to back at 7/2 to back that effort up. Ocean Countess is a class or 2 above these at her best and is a bit of a Brighton specialist having run well off marks in the high 60's at her best and last won off a mark of 54 in the summer, now rated just 49 after some uninspiring efforts on the AW earlier in the season. Ran her best race for a while last time out when staying on well doing best of those held up and should be well suited to this step up in trip in a weak field like this with Kirby taking over from apprentice from a respectable draw. 2pt win Ocean Countess 9/2 bet365

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing 1st Feb wow .....some really poor showings last couple of days from fancied horses so lucks got to change soon ......6.50 kemp tenbridge 67 65 berlusca 72 75 tenbridge will be popular in this and rightly so as his 7f kempton run sets the benchmark and i dont expect the 5/1 with bet 365 to last long as a result ,but im toying with the form line of berlusca who has a much higher speed rating over 6f but big question as to whether he will be able to handle 7f ? he did come from the back in that race and probably expended a lot of energy in the process so as tenbridge is 2lbs higher .the 6/1 available with betvictor seems decent so ill take 2pts win and see how the betting goes tomoorow with a possible lay for some profit if he comes down sufficiently