2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb

[kevshat]

After the weekend's fun and frolics in Blackpool it's off to the continent this week for the German Masters. It's a full ranking event and the 2nd last event before the cut off for the rankings for the World Championship so will be an important week for the likes of Ronnie O'Sullivan who is trying to protect his top 16 place. The whole tournament is on Eurosport and on the various bookmaker websites with the live streaming console. All matches are best of 9 frames until the semis which is best of 11 and the final which is best of 17 frames. Anyone hitting the outright market might want to do so at Apollo Bet where they will refund losing outrights up to £200 if Neil Robertson wins the tournament. Draw for the event can be found here :- http://www.worldsnooker.com/page/Drawspage/0,,13165~2594481,00.html

[kevshat]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Early match prices.... [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 1 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Player 1[/TH] [TH]Player 2[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Delu, Yu v Norbury, C (09:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.36 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Doherty, K v Einsle, P (09:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.27 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.96 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Dunn, M v Steadman, C (09:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.37 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Gunnell, A v Bullen, P (09:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.37 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Liu, Song v Sari, S (09:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.18 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.80 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Davison, P v Wrobel, K (13:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.29 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.52 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Ford, T v Arnold, P (13:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.17 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.14 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Maguire, S v Day, R (13:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.64 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.52 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Murphy, S v Hawkins, B (13:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Bingham, S v Ebdon, P (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.62 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.38 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.75 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Gould, M v Walden, R (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.92 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.99 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.33 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Higgins, J v Davis, M (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.44 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.53 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 2 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Player 1[/TH] [TH]Player 2[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Dott, G v Wattana, J (09:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.1 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]98.92 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Robertson, N v Campbell, M (09:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.64 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Carter, A v Perry, J (14:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.25 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] O'Sullivan, R v Higginson, A (14:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.67 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[RussP]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Taking 2 outrights for this. M.Williams to win German Masters, 2pts EW @ 10/1 Skybet (1/2 odds 1-2) Of the market leaders, Mark Williams sticks out as the most likely winner. I feel that many of the top players see this as an extension of the fun they had in Blackpool at the weekend and their games won't be at their peak. With Williams, I think it's totally different. His mindset is to win any event he can and I always feel he has his 'game head' on. The one thing that strongly draws me towards MJW is his overseas record in ranking events. Form in 2011 in the 4 events overseas read very well indeed; winner of this, last 32 in China Open, finalist in Australia Open and finalist in Shanghai. That's strong form in anyone's book and I feel that this change of scenery may just bring about a change in recent fortunes. His draw isn't too bad either, with what seems like an easy opener before likely clashes with the out of form Bingham and a QF clash against either Lee or Ding. A player who clearly showed a liking for this 5 table open format, I'll take Williams to retain his crown. R.Walden to win German Masters, 1pt EW @ 50/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1-2) Looking at his draw, this looks a crazy bet but Walden has some excellent recent form to fall back on and it's on that basis I'm striking the bet. His likely route to the final reads Gould, Murphy, Selby & Trump but I really wouldn't be surprised to see some big names fall early and, if that happens & he can take out Gould, he rates a decent 50/1 shot. Has an excellent H2H too with the in form Martin Gould so every reason to suggest he can win that opener. His recent form reads well, reaching the quarters of the last 2 EPTC events and semis in the UK Championship. In those 3 events, he's taken out big names such as Lee, Williams, Murphy & Ding which suggests to me he may just be ready to fulfil his potential. Certainly a speculative selection but in an event where a shock is more likely than the bigger events (ie, Worlds & UK), he may just be worth a small investment.

[kevshat]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Good luck Russ. I'm going with a few outrights this week. Some real value below the top names. 1pt ew M.Stevens to win German Masters 40/1 Ladbrokes (1/2 1,2) 1pt M.Stevens to win 2nd Quarter 7/1 Bet365 Matthew Stevens is back in the top 16 these days and will need to perform well in these events in order to stay there. He isn't guaranteed to be in the top 16 for the World Championship so he needs solid efforts in the German Masters and the Welsh Open which follows in a couple of weeks time. I'm convinced there is a big tournament in Matthew Stevens. I thought he was going well in the Shanghai Masters until he ran into a juggernaut in Mark Williams in the Quarter Final. He should've won his second round match in the UK Championship against Ding and ok fair enough he never really turned up against Higgins in the Masters. I like his draw this week and at 40/1 I think he's a touch of value. If we look at the seeds in his section, Neil Robertson will be tough if he brings the game which won the Masters to Germany but he pulled out of the Shootout last week with a chest infection so flights and all that might not help him. Last year he only turned up at the last minute after a passport issue too. Ronnie O'Sullivan is in this section but I'm always loathe to back him overseas because 9 times out of 10 he doesn't show up. He will show up this week but he needs the ranking points and that might just be a bit too much. Ali Carter is the other seed in this section and he's in the worst form probably of anyone in the tournament. Andrew Higginson is a good quality qualifier and Joe Perry is capable but there's no qualifier who would blow Stevens away and so with that in mind I'll take the Welshman to have a decent run in Berlin this week. 1pt ew S.Lee to win German Masters 66/1 Ladbrokes (1/2 1,2) 1pt S.Lee to win 1st Quarter 10/1 Bet365 I've no idea how Stephen Lee is 66/1 here. He's another who is back in the top 16 and I expect him to crack on now. He looks to be playing some decent enough snooker. He didn't get going until it was too late against Mark Selby in the Masters but when he did get going he was motoring along nicely but the winning line came too soon. We saw last week in the Shootout just how well he's cueing. That 121 break he made was fantastic and if he can take that form to Germany with him this week then there's a decent tournament in him I'm sure. His draw isn't as cosy as Stevens but at 66/1 it doesn't need to be. He will face Ding in the second round and maybe Williams in the QFs if it runs through to seeding. When Lee gets in these days he's scoring well, he's gone well in the PTC events and has plenty of snooker behind him this season. I see no reason why he can't come through his section of the draw and if he does 66/1 will be a very big price on a guy who knows how to win ranking tournaments. 1pt M.Davis to win 4th Quarter 22/1 Paddy Power Purely a value pick here but I don't see Mark Davis as a 22/1 shot even with this quarter being a tough one. Almost all of the 8 players in this section could win this quarter with the exception of one or two perhaps but even so I don't have Davis as a 22/1 shot. Davis made the final of one of the PTC's earlier in the season and made 3 semi finals and a win in the Championship League in the four groups he played in January so he's in decent touch at the minute. He made the quarter finals of the Shootout last week and was scoring well and while he has Higgins, Trump and Allen in this quarter as well as Maguire if we see the form he's shown in the last few weeks he could come out of this quarter. Davis is 17th in the world rankings and a good week here or in Wales later in the month could push him into the top 16 for the World Championship. That's a massive incentive so I'll have a small punt on an in form player to see how far he can come in this quarter.

[kevshat]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb I'll take two in the early matches on Wednesday. 4pts K.Doherty (-2.5 frames) to beat P.Einsle 4/5 Betfred Ken Doherty began this season with a run to the semi finals in the Australian Open which shows he can still play this wonderful game and I think we'll see that this week too. It's fair to say his season in the ranking events hasn't been as good as he would have liked since Australia but he's qualified for this and he'll want to make sure he takes full advantage of that. Patrick Einsle is an amateur but he tasted the TV lights at the World Cup earlier in the season when he played for Germany but it was a German side who lost to Egypt along the way which kind of shows where Einsle's game is at right now. He'll be under a bit of pressure here too being the only German in the tournament and that could play a part too. Doherty looked to be cueing well at the Shootout last week and with him more experienced in these surroundings and in need of the ranking points I think the former world champion will win this and win it no worse than 5-2. 3pts C.Stearman to beat M.Dunn 5/2 Ladbrokes Craig Stearman is an amateur but he's making a decent name for himself in the PTC tournaments where he's beaten the likes of Barry Hawkins, Ricky Walden and Fergal O'Brien over the course of the season so he is clearly capable of raising his game when he needs to and obviously doesn't fear anyone. Mike Dunn is a player who I really like and he's been in some really good form in the last 6-8 weeks including a 147 earlier in the season. I always feel there's an upset in these wildcard rounds and the 'seeded' player has nothing really to gain in them when they are taking on a capable player in them. Dunn should win this but Stearman is clearly no pushover and is worth a smaller bet at 5/2.

[kevshat]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Nice start with both morning bets winning. +10.7pts for the morning. One for the afternoon session. It's the televised game. Will come back with any evening bets once the two matches featuring the morning winners have been priced up. 4pts S.Murphy vs B.Hawkins - Over 7 Frames Evs Ladbrokes Both these players come into this tournament in good form. Shaun Murphy had a good week in the Championship League which he then followed up with a run to the final at The Masters at Alexandra Palace where he cued very well but just couldn't quite keep with Neil Robertson in that final. Since then we've seen Barry Hawkins win the Shootout and while that tournament can't be used as a genuine form guide because of the lottery nature of it, one thing which we can take from the event was that Hawkins is scoring well because he scored a 40 break in every match he played in the Shootout. Murphy is scoring well too as we saw in London so I expect a fair bit of one visit snooker in this match. Both can get in from distance and fill their boots and with both playing well I expect a decent, tight match. With the form they both have and the confidence they both have both will think they can win this and I wouldn't be surprised whoever wins. I don't think either will run away with the match though and fancy it to end 5-3 or 5-4 either way.

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Great start there with Ken doing the business for Kev. I wanted to get involved with some outrights but was far too busy last night to get near a computer so i've missed the boat on that. Some for today's matches: Wednesday: Stephen Maguire vs Ryan Day 4/10pts S. Maguire (-1.5 frames) to beat R. Day - Evens with BetFred I like the look of this price as I would have had it around the 5/6 mark. Maguire comes into this off the back of a 1st round exit in the Masters at the hands of Mark Williams. That is by no means a disgrace as it was a very tough first round draw and he played ok when going down 6-4 to the Welshman. A lot depends on Maguire's mindset coming into this match as if he turns up totally focussed his superior all round game should be too good for Day - I have factored that into the stake choice. Ryan Day is a very hit and miss player. Lately a lot more miss than hit. He has slipped right down the rankings to well outside of the top 16 and his form doesn't look like picking up any time soon. He will go for his shots and when in form is a very accomplished break builder but when asked to grind out frames he is often found lacking. That could be his undoing here. Maguire leads the head-to-head stats 3-0 and, on paper, that should read 4-0 by the end of today. He played well in the early rounds here last season and I fully expect him to still be in the running once this match is complete. If this was a bigger tournament I think the odds would be considerably shorter so I am happy to get stuck in and hope he comes through 5-3 or better. Wednesday: Martin Gould vs Ricky Walden 5/10pts M. Gould to beat R. Walden - 10/11 with Paddy Power I can't really understand why Martin Gould is this big but i'm certainly not complaining. Gould went out of the Masters against eventual runner-up Shaun Murphy so comes into this without a great deal of recent table time under his belt. He showed flashes of good form in the recent Sky Shoot-Out, especially when clearing up to make a fantastic 135 clearance to reach the quarter-finals. He went out at that stage but in his penultimate match it was evident that he is certainly cueing well enough to score big when given the chance. Ricky Walden had a fantastic run in the UK Championship's and that is probably one of the reasons why Gould is bigger than I would have priced him up. Before that tournament he lacked a major break through in terms of getting to the latter stages of major events, but he certainly showed everyone what he is capable of when he is in form. Despite that good run, I don't think it can be assumed that he has now turned the corner in terms of making full use of his obvious talent. He has only ever won one major tournament, and that was back in 2008, so he still has a long way to go before I can even consider him at odds of 10/11 against a far more consistent player in Martin Gould.

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb

4pts S.Murphy vs B.Hawkins - Over 7 Frames Evs Ladbrokes

Never in doubt :ok

[RussP]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Fantastic start:clap 2 for me tonight. S.Bingham (-1.5 frames) to beat P.Ebdon, 4pts @ 11/10 Ladbrokes The battle of 2 out of form players but one which I fancy Bingham to win comfortably. Since winning the Australian Open, Bingo has not done much at all losing in the last 16 in Shanghai, and getting knocked out in round 1 of both the UK and the Masters. Saying that, he has been knocked out by Higgins, Trump & Fu in those 3 events so, apart from the last one, it's nothing we didn't expect. I saw him at the Shootout at the weekend and he seemed to be cueing ok but was missing a few balls he normally wouldn't. Despite that, the form of Peter Ebdon is truely woeful and I would fancy myself to give him a run for his money!! Has lost in the first round he's played in every ranking event so far this season and has lost 9 of his last 10 matches, beating only Alan McManus in a PTC event. Of those 9 losses, only 3 of them have come to players ranked above him so it's certainly not the quality of the opposition he's been unlucky with. Basically, his game is not there and I believe Bingham will prove a good couple of frames too strong for him here. S.Lee (-2.5 frames) to beat A.Gunnell, 4pts @ 13/10 SportingBet I'm a big fan of Stephen Lee. Has a fantastic cue action and is now coming back to the form he was at a few years back, almost doing a MJW by slipping down & then rising back up the rankings. Has some excellent form in the PTC's this season and will now be looking to translate that to one of the major events. I believe this open table format will suit and this could be the event he prospers. Lee is a very heavy scorer when amongst the balls and that should be enough to overpower his opponent, Adrian Gunnell. He's not a player I particularly rate and is the sort of player who can fold easily when under pressure from a superior player. Of his last 6 defeats in best of 7 or more matches, he's lost by at least 3 frames in 5 of them (4 of which were in a first to 4 format). Hoping the heavy scoring of Lee can see off Gunnell easily here.

[kevshat]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Good shout with Maggy, Mirage :clap:clap. All 9 frames were needed in the Murphy match earlier so I'm up to +14.7pts now and I'll take one tonight. 4pts S.Bingham (-1.5 frames) to beat P.Ebdon 11/10 Ladbrokes I agree with Russ here. I think Bingham is a good thing tonight. Peter Ebdon hasn't just lost a load of matches this season but he hasn't really ever played well this season either. I've watched him in PTC events and qualifiers and he just looks off the pace and while we know he will battle hard and not give in at all that's no longer enough these days, especially when he's up against a heavy scorer who knows his way around the table like Bingham does. I was at the Masters when Bingham played Trump and he dished up nicely in the 3 frames he won and was unlucky not to get closer to Trump but not many have got close to Trump for a good while. Bingham's win in Australia will have given him the belief he can win tournaments and it's a big thing to go into tournaments believing you can win them or knowing you can win them even. It's one of those I've spoken about all season where a player on the up is meeting a player on the decline and I'm happy to take the former here. Bingham for me and I think he'll win 5-3 or easier.

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb

4/10pts S. Maguire (-1.5 frames) to beat R. Day - Evens with BetFred 5/10pts M. Gould to beat R. Walden - 10/11 with Paddy Power

-1pt after Walden beat Gould comprehensively. Only 1 has caught my eye for tomorrow so far. Thursday: Ali Carter vs Joe Perry 3/10pts J. Perry to beat A. Carter - 6/5 with Stan James This should be a close game and it is one that I wouldn't want to stake too much on in any market. However, I do think there is value on Joe Perry and I am happy to stake a small amount on him coming out of this match the winner. The selection is more about the negatives of the opposition player rather than what Perry has done to make me think he will come out and win. Ali Carter is battling a well publicised medical condition and has raised the issue of retirment a few times this season. He has said he is not as motivated to play as he once was and all of the travelling to tournaments abroad could be one of the major factors in quitting the sport. On his day he is a fantastic player but he hasn't had a good run for a while now and coming here to play will do nothing to help his current views on his future. He went out of the Masters at the first hurdle and before Christmas he grinded out a win against the lowly ranked Robert Milkins before losing to Mark Allen. Joe Perry's way of playing will be an advantage against Carter. He is hardly the most fluid and often finds himself battling for long frames so, if his opponent isn't up for the fight, he should be able to come out on top. That isn't to say Perry can't score well when in good form. If he turns up in good shape he is a match for most of this week's line-up so, even if Carter plays well, Perry will still be in with a good chance. This could go either way so, at a nice price, I will take a small chance on Perry.

[RussP]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Not a bad evening with both outrights progressing and both match bets winning. +9.6pts after Day 1. Tough day tomorrow so just taking the 1 at present. R.O'Sullivan (-2.5 frames) to beat A.Higginson, 3pts @ 11/10 Bet365 I'd normally be looking for this price on Ronnie turning up at an event like this, let alone winning on the 'cap. But now he's in danger of dropping out the top 16 and in desperate need of ranking point to guarantee his participation at the Crucible, I'm sure he'll come here with his game head on. He missed the Shootout at the weekend, I'm not sure why but I wouldn't be surprised if it had something to do with ensuring ideal preparation for this. He'll be desperate to start well and put down a marker, and I really think we may see the old Ronnie here. His opponent, Higginson, is a capable player performing reasonably well in the PTC's but has struggled somewhat against the better players in the ranking events. This multi table format should suit the Rocket and I think Higginson's game may play into his hands so I'll take ROS to win 5-2 or better.

[kevshat]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Bingham rescued the handicap from a poor situation but unfortunately I lost the Davis bet tonight. Not going to complain too much at that because that quarter was always a tough ask and I still ended the day +18.1pts even with that loss taken off. Two for me for Thursday to begin with. Eyeing up one or two others in the afternoon which I'll come back with should I decide to take them. 5pts G.Dott (-1.5 frames) to beat J.Wattana 5/6 Betfred Graeme Dott comes into this tournament playing some top quality snooker. Like with Hawkins earlier, we can't really use the Shootout as a form guide against other players but one thing we can take out of the Shootout from Dott's point of view is how well he's scoring and how fluent he is looking too. Of course we didn't really need the Shootout to tell us that because Dotty's been playing well all season. He's been consistent in the PTC's and made the final of the Brazilian tournament, all he's looking for now really is a long run in a major ranking tournament. This could even be the week for that. I expect him to go well in this match though at the very least. James Wattana started the season in terrific form but the second half of the tournaments so far this season have seen a bit of a flat spot come along for the Thaiphoon. I've mentioned a few times this season that even when Wattana plays well he very rarely wins frames at one visit and that spells problems for him ahead of this match because Dott is scoring so well. When Dott scores well he's a tough nut to crack because his match play is so good and he knows his way around the table. I love backing Dotty because you know a run is guaranteed for your money and I think he'll not only give us a run here but reward us with a win without conceding more than 3 frames. 4pts J.Perry to beat A.Carter 6/5 Stan James Ali Carter isn't in the greatest frame of mind at the minute and repeated threatens to quit the sport at the end of the season. He won't but it shows where his head is that he's threatening to do it. He's been dogged with a few health problems this year and all things being equal it's been a pretty turbulent season so far for The Captain. Joe Perry isn't exactly the easiest person he could have been drawn against in this opening round either. Perry is solid in all areas of the game and he generally breakbuilds well and if Carter is behind in a frame if Perry gets in early and makes a few you wonder if Ali will have the motivation to fight hard for a frame and indeed this match should Joe Perry get ahead. There isn't really anything wrong with Perry's game and as a practice partner of Neil Robertson's, I'm sure the success the Aussie is having is pushing Perry on to improve his game and get to that level too. I don't think he'll need to match Neil Robertson to win this match. Carter will win a match soon, it has to be said he has had some rough luck in recent matches but I don't think it will be this one.

[western skies]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Not really had the time to look at this tournament properly yet, but I'm going to take one this afternoon for starters and, unsurprisingly, I'm on the Perry gravy train as well. 5 pts - J Perry to beat A Carter @ 2.12 with Betfair I can't really add a lot to what has been said already although, unlike Kev, I actually think Carter might carry through his threat to retire at the end of the season. Not only has his form been miserable for nigh on 18 months or so, he really doesn't look like he enjoys playing anymore. Ali's always gotten frustrated with himself when he's not playing well, but I can't remember him looking so fed up with life as he has this season, and I just get the impression that he'd rather be doing anything else other than playing snooker. Joe Perry hasn't pulled up any trees so far this year, but his run to the final of PTC12 just after Christmas (coincidentally also in Germany) suggested that his form is improving. Beating Mark Davis, Ricky Walden, and Martin Gould for the loss of just 2 frames is impressive stuff and he battled away encouragingly against an on fire (for once!) Stephen Maguire in the final. I'm not as confident in this bet as I was on Dott to see off Carter in the Masters, but I still think it's worth a decent punt with the Captain's woes showing no sign of ending.

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Going to go with one more today and it's on a match that takes place tonight..... Thursday: Judd Trump vs Mark Allen 4/10pts J. Trump (-1.5 frames) to beat M. Allen - 11/10 with BoyleSports I would have took Evens for this because I would have had it at 10/11 so to see it available at even better odds is great news. Judd Trump had an easy first round draw and he came through it as well as everyone expected with a 5-1 win over Paul Davison. He won the last 4 frames with a break of 50+ in each of them and after the match said how he wants to keep the momentum going by reaching as far as possible in the tournament. That's an attitude that some of the top players may not have when playing abroad. Mark Allen had a much tougher draw and just scraped through to make this stage. He won 5-4 against Tom Ford but was a needing snooker in the final frame at one point so it looked as though he was all set to pack his bags and head home. Obviously, he managed to come back and win it but coming into this match after a gruelling same-day match where he never played his best won't be easy. He needs to up his game considerably yet again against a man who is in the groove. Trump beat Allen in the UK Championship final so recent form gives more weight to the arguement that he will win again here. As far as 2nd round matches go this could be a cracker and at this price I will get involved and hope Judd does the business comfortably enough.

[Danby]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb :( Perry. 2 big frames coming for us Perry backers.

[Danby]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Perrys a legend! Good call lads.

[kevshat]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Both early bets today won. That puts me up to +27.05pts for the week now and I have Stephen Lee playing Yu Delu for a place in the Quarter Finals rather than Ding Junhui which I'll take too. Two for tonight. 4pts S.Maguire to beat J.Higgins 11/8 Stan James I think Stephen Maguire is a big price here. He's been playing well for a while now and he showed that last time the tour rolled into Germany when he won PTC12 last month. That win came off the back of a run to the quarter finals of the UK Championship where he ran into a rampant Judd Trump. In the round before that though he beat John Higgins 6-4 but he could easily have beaten him 6-1. That win will give Maguire belief he can win tonight too. John Higgins hasn't really achieved anything fancy this season and I don't think I've seen him play really well yet. He made the semi finals of The Masters but was put in his place by Shaun Murphy and I fancy Maguire could do the same tonight. Maguire knocked in runs of 88, 82, 67 and 57 in a comprehensive 5-1 win over Ryan Day in the last round while Higgins stuttered to victory over a disappointing Mark Davis. The way the two have played this season I think Maguire has every chance in this match. 4pts R.Walden to beat S.Murphy 6/4 Betfred Ricky Walden is another player who is playing well at the minute and I think he's a touch of value to see off a Shaun Murphy who admittedly is playing well himself. The Masters runner up has had a blinding couple of weeks and is cueing really well at the minute but Barry Hawkins had more than enough chances to get rid of him in the first round but the way Walden is playing I don't think he'll need a second invitation. Walden beat Murphy 6-3 in the quarter finals of the UK Championship at the tail end of last year and I see no reason why he can't repeat that here. Walden thrashed an in form Martin Gould 5-1 last night with breaks of 102, 81, 57 and 73 along the way so he's scoring well and is tactically proficient enough to keep Murphy at long range or off the table and at 6/4 I think he's well worth backing tonight too.

[RussP]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Walden out and ROS only narrowly scraping through puts me back to +4.6pts. Some amazing tipping in here, really well done guys. 3 for me tomorrow. J.Perry v R.O'Sullivan, over 7 frames, 4pts @ 11/10 Bet365 On paper, ROS should take this easily but the reality is that, on current form, they are evenly matched. Ronnie will certainly be buoyed by his comeback from 4-0 down against Higginson today but, even despite some bits of O'Sullivan brilliance, he still gave Higginson enough chances to win. I really think the pressure is on Ronnie here and although I expect him to prevail, it should be another close match. Gentleman Joe, a player I like, managed to see off Ali Carter. With the recent form of Ali, it may not seem quite like the win it once would have been but the quality of play was excellent. Perry won the deciding frame after being 3-1 up, then 4-3 down, but breaks of 94, 71 and 102 showed Joe to be in fine nick. With a quarter final spot on offer, I'm expecting a high quality, tight match. M.Williams (-1.5 frames) to beat S.Bingham, 4pts @ 10/11 Paddy Power Current German Masters champ MJW is my outright tip and I'm taking him to win through again versus an out of sorts Stuart Bingham. I mentioned in an earlier bet how Bingham hasn't been playing too well and a 5-3 struggle to beat Peter Ebdon did nothing to change my mind. MJW presents a completely type of challenge and his record overseas is excellent. A 5-0 opening round win over Ken Doherty was convincing indeed, including 1 ton, and I only see him improving this week. Bingham has been missing some easy balls and Williams, unlike Ebdon, is the type of player to punish any mistakes heavily. There's no way he'll give up his crown easily here and I fancy him to take this 5-3 or better. M.Stevens to beat N.Robertson, 4pts @ 13/8 BetVictor I'm taking the underdog here. Stevens has been playing some pretty decent snooker lately and is hoping for a good run here to cement his spot inside the top 16 and I think he's got a great chance here. His form looks ok and a nice 5-1 win over Craig Steadman will be a confidence boost and an easy opening round win. Robbo has been in great form but his withdrawl from the Shootout at the weekend due to illness must worry any potential backers. There are doubts over his wellbeing and, despite his 5-2 win over Marcus Campbell in round 1, there's no way he's on top form here. A top break of just 49 is a poor standard indeed and he will need much more to beat a rejuvenated Matthew Stevens. I think 13/8 is a massive price with a concern over the favourite so I'll take the experience of the Welshman to win the day here.

[western skies]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Good to see that everyone in here seems to be having a decent tournament so far. :ok Well, Perry got the job done even if it was a little bit closer than I would have liked, so hopefully it's onwards and upwards from here. With only one TV table, it's a bit difficult to judge some players' form, but nevertheless there's two that I like the look of this afternoon. 5pts - M Williams (-1.5 frames) to beat S Bingham @ 10/11 with Paddy Power Totally agree with Russ on this one. Since winning the Australian Open back in the summer, Bingham has struggled for form and is down to 15th on the latest projected rankings list. Early losses in Shanghai, the UK, and the Masters have been interspersed with some pretty insipid PTC results including just 2 quarter final appearances in the 12 tournaments. As Russ says, a sketchy win over a hopelessly out of form Peter Ebdon does nothing to inspire confidence and Williams just looks far too strong coming into this match. The Welshman has struggled against the very top players since winning this tournament 12 month ago, but he usually has little problem seeing off middle ranked opponents and Bingham is nowhere near the form he showed in that stunning Aussie win over MJW 6 months ago. I'd be surprised if he runs Williams any closer than 5-3 here. 2 pts - G Dott to beat M Selby @ 2.66 (13/8) with Betfair I mentioned in the Masters that Selby is prone to throwing in a below par performance every now and then, especially when he seems to be off to a flier in tournaments. He made short work of Liu Song yesterday, but Graeme Dott is a very different proposition. Dott usually tends to run Selby pretty close and this match has all the hallmarks of a potential banana skin for the world number 1. I think Selby has found the pressure of being top of the pile (and possibly the pressure of justifying it, given his fairly paltry collection of ranking titles) difficult to handle at times and he's struggling to cope with no longer being the underdog. Graeme has been his usual solid self this season - nothing spectacular, but comfortably holding onto a top 8 spot in the rankings and reaching a final and 3 semi finals in the PTC events. For me, he's being underestimated by the market here and - whilst the handicap may provide the safer option - I'm happy to chance my arm on an upset at these odds.

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Good to see the winners are still coming. A good day yesterday puts me at +7.00pts for the week. I'm tempted to take Maguire but will just leave it at the one bet for today: Friday: Mark Selby vs Graeme Dott 5/10pts Over 7.5 frames - 5/6 with Coral Despite it being short I still think there's a bit of value in this price still. Both of these players have played some good Snooker this week and it's hard to be confident when choosing who will win this match. I never saw Selby in action yesterday but two century breaks and another two 50+ scores suggests his 5-0 win over Liu Song was thoroughly deserved. He has everything in his locker to win major tournaments consistently but he does throw in the odd shocker now and then so this match is by no means as straightforward as the odds suggest. Graeme Dott also played well yesterday and recorded a comfortable win himself. He won 5-0 with four breaks of 50+ so continues to show the sort of good form he has been showing over the last few weeks. He looks back to his best when in amongst the balls and when he is playing like that he can give anyone a good game. Both of these men are coming here off the back of good wins so will be confident of progressing and I can only see it being a closely fought contest.

[kevshat]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb An easy win for Maguire last night has put me up to +28.55pts for the week and I will be on Stephen Lee at 10/1 to beat either Williams or Bingham tonight. Also have Matthew Stevens running for me today. I'll take one for this afternoon and be a latecomer aboard the Williams wagon. 4pts M.Williams (-1.5 frames) to beat S.Bingham 10/11 Ladbrokes I expect Mark Williams to come through here. He came through his opening match against Ken Doherty without losing a frame but in truth Doherty didn't offer much to the proceedings and Williams would have been disappointed to drag it out any longer than he actually did. Stuart Bingham was nothing like as convincing against Peter Ebdon in the first round although it must be said Ebdon played well in the early stages but Bingham did what he had to do and made it through. This will be the third time these two will have met in a proper tournament this year (the Championship League is just a bit of fun in the early stages IMO) and Bingham won their first meeting 9-8 in the final of the Australia Open and Williams won their second 4-2 in a PTC. Williams will know he should have won their Australia meeting having led 8-6 only to lose the final three frames and the match. Since that Australian Open, Bingham's results have generally been pretty mixed while Williams continues to reach the latter stages of the main tournaments. On his day Bingham can beat most players but he struggles against the elite of which Williams is one so I'll take the Welshman to win this and win it no worse than 5-3.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Has Mark William's match been postponed or something? I don't even see it on the schedule for today?

[slizorn]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb

Has Mark William's match been postponed or something? I don't even see it on the schedule for today?

Nah, it is happening right now. Live scores at: http://livescores.worldsnookerdata.com/LiveScores.aspx?t=962 Match started at 1pm. :ok

[ImLovinIt]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Thanks bro. :D

[ImLovinIt]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Nice call on Williams you three, Russ, Western and Kev. I backed it with £55 as a single and then threw it into a £51 treble with O'Sullivan and then Karlovic in the tennis :D Amazing call on Mathew Stevens BTW Russ.

[kevshat]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Good win for us all with Williams earlier. That win puts me up to +32.19 for the tournament. Quarter finals tonight. I'm already on Lee to beat Williams at 10/1 and Stevens to beat Ronnie at 7/1 and I'll take one more. 4pts S.Murphy to beat M.Selby 11/8 Bet365 I like Shaun Murphy in this match tonight for a few reasons. The first and main reason is because Mark Selby has already had a tough match this afternoon against Graeme Dott and by the time he's done his press and stuff he'll only have about 2hrs or so before this match begins. While that's been going on Shaun Murphy has been sampling the delights of Berlin and chilling out in the main. Murphy came through against Ricky Walden last night and did it very impressively, scoring well and playing good snooker by all accounts. This match is a rematch of the Masters quarter final where Murphy beat Selby 6-2. They also met in the quarter final of the Shanghai Masters which Selby won 5-4 before going on to win the title. I fancy Murphy is in better form now than he was then however and I don't believe Selby is playing anywhere near as well. Over the last month or so Murphy has been cueing really well and hitting the white crisply and if that continues here then I think it will be the Magician facing either Trump or Maguire in tomorrow's semi final.

[western skies]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb Sadly, Dott couldn't quite bring home the bacon this afternoon, but he ran Selby close in quite a cagey affair from the sounds of it. Williams did the business for just about everyone in this thread, so that leaves with me +7.87pts profit going into tonight. Fancy chancing my arm a little with the odds that are available: 2pts - S Maguire to beat J Trump @ 6/4 with Bet365 I just can't be having Maguire as a 6/4 shot here. He's a player I've been happy to oppose many times in the past when I felt he was overrated, but he's been in decent form of late and anyone who whitewashes John Higgins has to be taken seriously. Trump is, of course, a danger to anyone and may be inspired to finally get his hand on the TV table (he's been having a wee moan about being on the outside tables), but for me Maguire in his current form is just a clear value pick. 2pts - S Murphy to beat M Selby @11/8 with Bet365 I'm possibly playing with fire by opposing Selby again tonight, but I just don't see him winning this event and, for me, he is being constantly underpriced on current form. Kev is spot on about the hard battle Selby had with Graeme Dott this afternoon - the final two frames seemed especially scrappy from the livescore feed - whilst Murphy will be feeling a lot fresher having had the day off. Shaun ran out a comfortable winner when these two met in the Masters last month and he was cueing as well as I've seen him for a good 18 months during his run to the final there. He has the ability to score very heavily and I fancy that he'll be ready to pounce should the world number 1 show any signs of fatigue tonight.

[RussP]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb 2 quick bets for me as I've left it pretty late. S.Murphy to beat M.Selby, 4pts @ 11/8 Bet365 I'm jumping on the Smurf bandwagon. Murphy may have struggled in his opening match to overcome Shootout champ Barry Hawkins but he was in imperious form to beat one of my outright picks, Ricky Walden. That was a top quality match and the ease of his victory, 5-2, just highlights to me how well he played. I don't like opposing Selby but I think the Jester is struggling a little with the World No 1 tag and he now looks very beatable. As everyone has said, Selby had a real tough encounter earlier today against the gritty Graeme Dott whilst Murphy has had a full day to prepare. At the prices, Smurf is the bet. J.Trump v S.Maguire, under 0.5 centuries, 4pts @ 7/4 Paddy Power Probably a bit of a hunch bet but 7/4 is a stupid price. Admittedly, they both won easily last night but neither of them were outstanding. They are both capable of much better but just overpowered their under par opponents. These 2 may have won 20 frames between them for the loss of just 4 frames, despite taking out Davison, Allen, Day and Higgins, but they ain't scoring as heavily as their superiority would expect. Neither of them have hit a century so far so I'm not sure how we're getting almost 2/1 on their not being one. Purely a value based selection and I'm happy to get involved at 7/4.

[Mirage]

Re: 2012 German Masters 1-5 Feb

Friday: Mark Selby vs Graeme Dott 5/10pts Over 7.5 frames - 5/6 with Coral

Some brilliant calls in here again, I don't think anyone wants this competition to end! 1/1 for me today to make it +11.15 for the week.