Sawyer Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Article EXPECTATIONS AND GOALS It's important to set realistic goals. If you want to increase your bankroll by x20 in a month, then probably you're living in Wonderland and Alice is your neighbour. It won't be a realistic goal without doubt.. Sure, there's some punters who increase their bank by x10 or x20 in a month (by riding a lucky streak, playing jackpot parlays) but it's nothing but a short term flirt with Lady Luck. Lady Luck may be generous but believe me, she is very unfaithful, lol. Therefore, we must set realistic goals.. Sticking with a plan Make a plan. Have a plan. You may have the best plan on earth but it's not enough, you must stick with it also. I know many punters who make a great plan but fail to success because they don't stick with it. You must set your rules and stick with the plan. You must bet like a robot. Let's say you're laying to win %2 and lay odds are 3,5. It means you will risk %5 of your bankroll on this lay. You may have a "wild feeling" about this horse and you may want to risk more but you can't. It's against the rules. You must have a strong will. Believe me, the real enemy is you. Your emotions, your lust, your greed. Patience & Discipline These are extremely important skills. Even if you're the best handicapper on earth, you won't have a shot over the long haul if you can't master these skills. I know many people who are very succesfull in picking winners but they're leaving a fortune on table because they have bad betting habits. (Betting parlays, going all-in, going on tilt, betting too much on a game etc) Rome wasn't build in a day and you must be patient if you want to reach your goal. Power of Compound Interest "The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest.." (Albert EINSTEIN) If you can increase your bankroll by %2 every day, your bankroll will be increased by %81 at the end of the month. If you can increase your bankroll by %81 every month, your bankroll will be increased by x35 after 6 months. That's the power of Compound Interest! About Goals Gotta be realistic. You can't double/triple your bankroll every month. If you're laying horses, you should be happy with a %40-%50 increase (monthly) in my opinion. Yes, You may have wild months when you increased your bankroll by %100 (or %232, lol) but on average, %40-50 is a good number.. Make sure you have realistic goals and you're sticking with your plan. For example, I never back horses, never. I don't say backing horses is a bad bet, there's some people who are very skilled in picking winners..but i'm not. Sometimes, I like some horses to win but I don't bet them, I just stick with laying.. Stay Grounded Finally, make sure you don't get too far ahead of yourself. Be humble. Stay grounded. Winning can be very dangerous/destructive sometimes. When you're winning, your self-confidence is boosted, you may start to think you're invincible and you may take bigger risks. Since your self-confidence is boosted, your risk tolerance will be seriously reduced. A friend of mine, who is a basketball handicapper; went on a very wild streak, going 16-4 (%80) in last 20 bets. He was betting 100€ each game but after this streak, he started to think he is too good and his "actual" winning streak is %80. Why bet only 100€ if you're so good? He boosted his stakes dramatically. Next day, he had 5 bets and he started the day by losing 3 straight, going 0-3. He increased his stakes for future bets because he was impossible for him to go 0-5. He was a %80 Handicapper after all. Not surprisingly, he went 0-5 and lost all the winnings he accumulated during crazy winning streak.. We're not invincible. We will have losing days, we will have losing weeks! Even, we may have losing months either. No problem as long as you're green over the long haul. I know my %92 win rate won't stay above %90 forever. Probably, it will drop below %90 but even %83-85 will make us money. Tomorrow is last day of month. Let's finish strong! Stable Master Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShanghaiPunter Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! ^ wise words SM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 29 Feb 2012 Wednesday 14:20 Bangor - Win Market LAY 6 Golden Firebird 3.65 Will add more plays later. May have 5-6 selections for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Couldn't agree more. Even though my 'system' differs quite a bit from yours the 'Rules of Engagement' remain the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! 16:35 Southwell - Win Market LAY Sam D'oc 8.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! 17:15 Folkestone - Win Market LAY Boss In Boots 4.3 19:05 Betdaq Handicap - Win Market LAY Warbond 7.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! 17:05 Southwell - Win Market LAY Jeano De Toulouse 7.22 (Average Odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! unlucky with 17:05, only covered 7.05 myself:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Feb 29 Recap 17:05 Southwell - Win MarketLAY Jeano De Toulouse 7.22 (57.8) -359.52 17:15 Folkestone - Win Market LAY Boss In Boots 4.3 NONRUNNER 19:05 Betdaq Handicap - Win Market LAY Warbond 7.8 (57.8) Net +56.06 16:35 Southwell - Win MarketLAY Sam D'oc 8.00 (53.0) Net +51.41 14:20 Bangor - Win MarketLAY 6 Golden Firebird 3.65 (96.3) Net +93.41 Daily Net Profit: -158,63 Daily W/L: 3-1 Small loss today..Hopefully other lays win; damage is reduced :D Bankroll was 4653,46. Bankroll decreased to 4494,83 (-%3.52) Record: 101-9 (%91.8) Total Profit: +2494,83 € Starting Bankroll: 2000 € Present Bankroll: 4494,83 € End of month! :loon It has been 31 days since we started this thread. Bankroll increased by %124 and we reached 4,5K. My goal for March is..%80 Bankroll Increase! If I can increase my bank by %80 this month, bankroll will reach 8k. We have a chance to reach 10k as well (if I can increase by %124) but %80 is a more realistic target in my opinion. (Will party all night if I reach 10k at the end of this month, lol) I wish everyone a profitable March! :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Lay Stakes for Thursday ......-3.99 %2.0 (96.3) 4.00-4.99 %1.5 (72.2) 5.00-5.99 %1.4 (67.4) 6.00-6.99 %1.3 (62.6) 7.00-7.99 %1.2 (57.8) 8.00-8.99 %1.1 (53.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! 15:50 Southwell - Win Market LAY How Sweet It Is 3.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! May add a play for 14:25 race. Stay Tuned! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Tango Bonbou was 5.2-5.4 thru 10:00. I placed a lay at 5.00 and went outside. Then I checked it and saw its odds were swinging above 8. Now, it's at 10-11! I can't lay at this price but don't want to miss it either. So placing a "KEEP IN-PLAY LAY" for this one. Let's hope it gets matched during the race. 14:25 Thurles - Win Market LAY Tango Banbou KEEP IN PLAY LAY AT 6.2 (Not Matched Before Race) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! 14:30 Ludlow - Win Market LAY Call Back 3.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! 15:30 Ludlow - Win Market LAY Hawk Run 5.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roland777nl Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Not exactly an inspired run by Tango Bonbou... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Tango no match. Missed that one..What a hopeless horse. Why I didn't lay it earlier at 5.4-6.0? :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Dark Shadow wins! :D Call back comes 2nd. Delicious odds :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD=class: notifRow, width: 39%]17:00 Ludlow - Win Market LAY Divine Intavention 4.6 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! How Sweet It Is! 3-0 Start :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Don't have any lays 'til 17:00 race. See you thru 17:00! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Do you know movie "Let it Ride"? It's a very funny/nice movie about horse racing ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! 17:00 Ludlow - Win Market LAY Divine Intavention 4.6 -259.92 15:30 Ludlow - Win MarketLAY Hawk Run 5.1 (67.4) Net +65.38 14:30 Ludlow - Win MarketLAY Call Back 3.50 (96.3) Net +93.41 15:50 Southwell - Win MarketLAY How Sweet It Is 3.4 (96.3) Net +93.41 Daily Profit: -7.72 Daily W/L: 3-1 Could be a 4-1 day but missed Tango Banbou. Feels like a breakeven day..See you tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Unlucky on last had two winning picks matched so thanks will look out for tomorrows picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! 2 March 2012 Friday 14:00 Doncaster - Win Market LAY 2 Netherby 3.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Stakes are same as yesterday. (96.3 for Netherby) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! 17:10 Newbury - Win Market LAY Tickity Bleue 7.00 (57.8€) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! I hate NHF! Maybe better skip NHF races.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Hey there Nice going! I hope you get your car :) Can I ask how much liability is roughly on these lays? I don't follow horse racing much just wondered.. your doing great good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Re: Stable Master's Glory Hunt for Alfa Romeo Giulietta! Hey there Nice going! I hope you get your car :) Can I ask how much liability is roughly on these lays? I don't follow horse racing much just wondered.. your doing great good luck Thank you mate. Had a bad week but hope to bounce back strong :ok My Stakes are, ......-3.99 %2.0 (96.3) 4.00-4.99 %1.5 (72.2) 5.00-5.99 %1.4 (67.4) 6.00-6.99 %1.3 (62.6) 7.00-7.99 %1.2 (57.8) 8.00-8.99 %1.1 (53.0) So there isn't a fixed liability; it changes every day according to bankroll. If bankroll is decreased, I don't reduce my stakes. Because if you do so, it will take much longer to recoup your losses. Will be using this stakes 'til I reach 5k. Then will adjust/modify stakes again. Liability is calculated as: (Odds - 1 ) x Lay Stake So if 4.10, Lay stake is 72.2. Therefore, our liability is 3.10 x 72.2 = 223.82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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