Grand National Stats and Trends Thread

[mowgli77]

:ok

[beaker1]

Re: Grand National Stats and Trends Thread key trends oppose horses aged under 9 dismiss contenders yet to have won over at least three miles disregard horses set to carry over 11st 5lbs treat horses coming off a break of 50+ days with caution irish bred have dominated look to a horse likely to be ridden prominently other factors previous experience over these fences has been advantageous [especially if contested last seasons national] the morson group hcp chase at cheltenham in december is the best recent guide outside of previous grand nationals a hard race at the cheltenham festival often leaves its mark the haydock grand national trial winner as never won just one french bred winner in 103 years the top eight in the betting have a better record than most believe

[markmywords]

Re: Grand National Stats and Trends Thread Found last year. This is a selection by process of elimination using various trends occuring through the history of the race (within the last 40 years as a reasonable maximum, mostly shorter but not too short for accuracy if possible). I've left odds and weight until the last two rounds as these are probably the most influential in reality, and with a smaller sample to choose I can analyse a bit better. MID LIFE CRISIS 6 year olds haven't won since 1922. 7 year olds haven't won since 1940. 8 year olds only 1 win in last 17 years. 13 year olds only 2 wins in entire history and none have placed since 1969. The stats do not look good for 6, 7, 8 & 13 year olds so they are our first elimination batch. HORSES ELIMINATED:- What A Friend, Majestic Concorde, Calgary Bay, Becauseicouldntsee, Quinz, Quobilet, King Fontaine, Hello Bud & Our Monty, Belona Gale, Le Beau Bai, Sagalryique, Galant Nuit, Junior, I'moncloudnine & Pomme Tiepy HOME COMFORTS French Breds only 1 win in last 100 years. Mon Mome was the only horse to do it in the last 100 years. Exception that proves the rule? Elimination batch number two HORSES ELIMINATED:- Or Noir De Somoza, Backstage, Ornais, Piraya, That's Rythym, Royal Rosa & Merigo GO THE DISTANCE Every winner since 1970 had previously won at 3m+ distance Proven stayer's are required for this marathon trip. HORSES ELIMINATED:- Dooney's Gate, In Compliance, Santa's Son, Faasel, Putney Bridge, Askthemaster, Starzaan & Duers. MATCH FIT Last 28 winners of race had all run in the 50 days previous Can't get away with a lack of race sharpness in this slog HORSES ELIMINATED:- The Tother One, Grand Slam Hero & State Of Play COMES HIGHLY RATED Last 10 winners were all officially rated 136+ Got to be good to be great it seems. (I've taken any future ratings as offical too). HORSES ELIMINATED:- Roll Along, Can't Buy Time, Character Building, Always Waining, Golden Kite, Giles Cross, Ambobo, Toby Jug, Ballyfitz, Treacle & Regal Heights STEADY LEGS Last 10 winners had never fallen twice in their career Proven jumpers are best for these unforgiving fences. HORSES ELIMINATED:- Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Chief Dan George, Silver By Nature, Northern Alliance, Arbor Supreme & The Sawyer CHASE THE EXPERIENCE Last 10 winners have all previously raced in 10+ chases Again, they've got to prove an old hand at getting over the big ones. HORSES ELIMINATED:- The Midnight Club, Surface To Air & Skippers Brig BIG FIELD EARNERS Last 10 winners previously won a race with 12+ and worth £17k+ Lone Rangers are no use here, they need to have navigated a crowd to get the big prize. HORSES ELIMINATED:- Killyglen FAMILIAR FENCES 7 out of last 9 winners have all previously raced at Aintree Need to know whats on the otherside. Jumping into the unknown rarely works out good. HORSES ELIMINATED:- Oscar Time, West End Rocker, Bluesea Cracker & Saddlers Storm. STATUS CHECKThis now leaves us with just 5 horses remaining; Don't Push It, Tidal Bay, Vic Venturi, Ballabriggs and Comply Or Die. Now on to odds and then finally weight. These two may or may not have bearing with odds not being defining and weight slowly becoming less of an issue, which is why I wanted to give the full list of remaining horses before going further. ODD'S ARE GOOD 31 out of 42 winners were priced 16/1 or lower Clearly the bookies know which horses have the best chance, but there's still good value for a place with these horses. HORSES ELIMINATED:- Tidal Bay, Vic Venturi, Comply Or Die ONE ON ONE We are now down to 2 horses; last years winner Don't Push It and Ballabriggs. With Don't Push It needing to achieve the same seemngly impossible feat as Red Rum by winning of top weight, I'll pump for BALLABRIGGS and hope D.McCain Jnr can continue his family's good record here. Good luck to everyone! Hopefully it will be another classic race. Using same system Age takes out - Alfa Beat, Black Apalachi, Tatenen, Shakalakaboomboom, On His Own, OrganisedConfusion, Quiscover Fontaine, Tharawaat, Hello Bud, Viking Blond, Our Island, Smoking Aces and Ballyvesey Rating takes out - Neptune Equester, Any Currency, Abbeybraney and Saddlers Storm Home Comfort takes out - Mon Mome 50 days race - Calgary Bay, Chicago Grey, West End Rocker, Treacle, State of Play, Giles Cross and Vic Venturi Never Fell 2 in career - Neptune Collonges, Cappa Bleu, Arbor Supreme, Always Waining and BecauseIcouldn'tSee Had 10 or more chases - Synchronised and Junior Around course before - Seabass, Always Right, The Midnight Club, Le Beau Bai and Midnight Haze. Won more than 17,000 in 12+ field - Weird Al, PlanetofSound, Deep Purple, Killyglen, Swing Bill, Postmaster and In Compliance. This leaves Ballabriggs, According to Pete, Rare Bob and Sunnyhill Boy. Odds leave Ballabriggs and Sunnyhill boy (Although Sunny drifting to 20/1 in places) Shall keep an eye on the four left because the way Ballabriggs worked last year and 10lb higher it leads to Sunnyhill Boy.

[PISSAH]

Re: Grand National Stats and Trends Thread Nice Job Markmywords and beaker1 for your stats. Interesting read. Ran the stats against my picks and they all fell by the way-side except 1, I have to say i changed 1 stat, the run within 50 days to 60 days (because of fixutre changes due to the snow). The horse that i was left with is GILES CROSS and the more i look at the stats the more this horse stands out. Irish Bred, Won a class 1 over 3-1/2 miles in a big field, Jumps well and loves a bit of cut in the ground which looks likely he will get, and the money is coming for it. He also run's from the front which will keep him out of trouble and he now has Paddy Brennan on board. He didn't go to Cheltenham, So conections must of had his race in mind all season, and i think he will be there with 1/2 mile left (3 fences out) and then its up to the Racing gods to bring him home. If he has anything left in the tank at that stage he will go close to winning it. Only 1 snag, missed the price 10/1 now, but wish me luck im diving in. Thanks again for the stats boys.

[bowles10]

Re: Grand National Stats and Trends Thread

GRAND NATIONAL

SATURDAY -AINTREE

22 = 50 age (7) + 40 23 = 60 + 40 24 = 50 LTO + 30 hurdles 26 = 60 + 40 27 = 60 + 40 30 = 60 + 30 runs 32 = 50 LTO + 40 34 = 50 Runs + 40 35 = 60 + 30 runs 36 = 50 Days + 30 hurdles 37 = 50 age + 30 hurdles 42 = 50 OR + 30 hurdles 47 = 50 OR + 30 hurdles So into the final round we have 12 horses of which only3 reached the highest score of 100/100 These are TheMidnight club Sunnyhillboy KIllyglen Of the others, we shouldn't discount their score of90, however reasons for not going forward are: According to Pete (no hurdle run) Rare Bob (no hurdle run) Organisedconfusion (age) Postmaster (too many runs) Always waining (too many runs) Alfabeat – keep Chicagogrey – keep LeBeau bai - kee Swingbill – keep One final stat worth including is 13/13 - No more than 2 falls in chasing career This leaves a final shortlist of : TheMidnight club (1 Fall, 1BD) Sunnyhillboy(1 fall) Killyglen (1 fall in the national last year) Alfabeat (1 fall and 2UR) – remove ChicagoGrey (1 fall and 1 UR) LeBeau Bai (not declared to run) Swingbill (0 falls) Leaving my final selections : SWING BILL CHICAGO GREY THE MIDNIGHT CLUB SUNNYHILLBOY KILLYGLEN

These are pretty conclusive in myopinion 13/14- Won at least over 3m 13/14 - Won class 1 or 2 chase (8 at class 1) 13/14 - OR 135+ 13/14 - Aged 8-11 13/14 - 3-6 runs in season 14/14 - Ran within 48 days Looking at the above trends, we have a points scoringsystem. At round 1, horses canscore a max of 60pts (10pts per trend) – keep only those with 50+ (these were done on Thursday when 48 still declared) 1 = 60 2 = 50 Runs 3 = 60 4 = 50 LTO 5 = 50 LTO 6 = 50 LTO (1 day) 7 = 50 LTO (1 day) 8 = 30 age, LTO (1 day) & runs 9 = 50 Runs 10 = 50 Runs 11 = 50 LTO 12 = 40 distance & LTO 13 = 60 14 = 50 distance 15 = 60 16 = 40 LTO & runs 17 = 40 LTO & runs 18 = 50 LTO 19 = 50 LTO 20 = 60 21 = 50 age (12) 22 = 50 age (7) 23 = 60 24 = 50 LTO 25 = 40 LTO & runs 26 = 60 27 = 60 28 = 40 LTO & distance 29 = 40 age & LTO (1 day) 30 = 60 31 = 30 runs & class, distance 32 = 50 LTO 33 = 30 age, runs & LTO 34 = 50 Runs 35 = 60 36 = 50 Days 37 = 50 age 38 = 30 age, runs & distance 39 = 40 runs & class 40 = 30 age, LTO & runs 41 = 30 age, LTO & class 42 = 50 OR 43 = 30 LTO, class & OR 44 = 20 age, OR, runs & class 45 = 20 age, OR, runs & class 46 = 40 OR & class 47 = 50 OR 48 = 30 age, class & OR That is 18horses removed, moving onto stage 2. 12/12 - At least 10 runs over fences 13/14 - Ranover fences between 10 - 27 times 8/9 - ran over hurdles this season 12/12 - won a chase worth £17k to the winner All of these factors seem to be key these days as itsbased on experience etc, so i will discount anything less than a score of 90 1 = 60 + 20 runs (9) 2 = 50 Runs + 30 hurdles 3 = 60 + 20 hurdles & runs (9) 4 = 50 LTO + 30 hurdles 5 = 50 LTO + 30 hurdles 6 = 50 LTO (1 day) + 40 7 = 50 LTO (1 day) + 30 hurdles 9 = 50 Runs + 30 hurdles 10 = 50 Runs + 20 runs (8)(junior) 11 = 50 LTO + 40 13 = 60 + 30 hurdles 14 = 50 distance + 30 hurdles 15 = 60 + 20 runs (9) 18 = 50 LTO + 30 hurdles 19 = 50 LTO + 10 runs &hurdles 20 = 60 + 30 hurdles 21 = 50 age (12) + 30 runs

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Grand National Stats and Trends Thread

Found last year. This is a selection by process of elimination using various trends occuring through the history of the race (within the last 40 years as a reasonable maximum, mostly shorter but not too short for accuracy if possible). I've left odds and weight until the last two rounds as these are probably the most influential in reality, and with a smaller sample to choose I can analyse a bit better.

Hi mate,i was just looking through your stats,great work btw.can you tell me in which area postmaster was elimiated.thanks:p

[Aykay1]

Be careful if you are thinking of backing Postmaster. The trainer described him as a "social runner" for the owners, which im guessing means they are just running it for a day out.

[markmywords]

Re: Grand National Stats and Trends Thread

Hi mate' date='i was just looking through your stats,great work btw.can you tell me in which area postmaster was elimiated.thanks:p[/quote'] Sorry mate just got back from Wembley after watching my side drop their pants again. Postmaster is not a big field earner. Never won 17K in 12+ field. Close but no cigar for Sunny.