Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.10 Musselburgh - 3pts win Why Are You Asking @ 11/2 (PP) Very poor handicap chase and only a few of these have serious hopes on recent form. Stuff Of Dreams has run very poorly on all three starts this year for a yard not exactly banging in the winners, Paddys Unyoke is a 21-race maiden and dropped out like a stone earlier this week. Oh Right is at least unexposed over fences and this trip, but his best performance has been a 29l defeat so you couldn't be confident. Leopold hasn't won for nearly three years and jumped badly when last of four finishers last time out, and Desertmore Star has shown little to nothing under rules to date. If one of these horses wins then I'll have to accept it but I wouldn't touch any of them with stolen money and believe the race concerns the three at the head of the market. Hurricane Jack has a recent win to his name and conditions are fine, but he's never won off this high before, and the way he sulked and dropped back when making jumping errors last time was concerning. Struggles for consistency and won't find it as easy to dominate the field today as he did when winning two starts ago. That race hasn't really worked out for all he did it well and is well worth taking on at 11/4. Tears From Heaven improved to be way in front of Hurricane Jack last time here, however, the race was particularly dire and the winner didn't look like being involved when unseating since. Therefore I believe this is set up for the Rose Dobbin trained Why Are You Asking. He perhaps would be an even bigger bet had he proved himself over the trip, but I think it'll be fine, and may well suit the horse. This gelding is at least relatively consistent at a low level and his runs over fences haven't been too bad. Was beaten 7l on his chase debut and then 12l after an absence on his second start over an insufficient 2 miles. Had absolutely no chance behind a seriously well-handicapped horse stepped up to 2m7f at Wetherby, so his rider wasn't serious with him up the straight so it's difficult to tell how well he stayed. The facile 33l winner (off a mark of 75) won twice since, including a 5l success off a mark of 109 (now rated 120) so you can safely forgive my selection for not getting near that one! My selection was 3rd next time out having gone back to 2 miles and has a habit of being outpaced in his races. Shaped as if wanting further and put in a terrific effort over 2m5f from out of the handicap at Hexham on soft ground next time out. The front three were clear and he only went down by 3 1/4l. The fact he stayed that trip on soft ground at a testing track offers plenty of hope for three miles around Musselburgh on better ground - even if a bit of cut may suit him. Even though he was beaten 38 lengths last time, he met two well-treated rivals. Even if it didn't look great at the time, he jumped pretty well barring a couple of errors (including when beaten, exaggerated distance back to him) and rallied well at a point having been outpaced once more. That shouldn't happen so much over this trip today. Both the winner and runner-up have won well twice since (winner now rated 29lbs higher, and runner-up won by 5l off 12lbs higher three days ago). So it wasn't a bad effort in that company to be third and so long as he gets home today, I think he's a good bet at 11/2. His form has worked out well and even though the trip isn't bombproof for him, there's a good chance he'll see it out. Harry Haynes is one of the better conditional jockeys around so it looks a good booking for this race and Rose Dobbin's last two runners have been 2nd. Weak race but a strong chance I feel. 3.10 Musselburgh - 2pts win Baaher @ 11/1 (Hills) I think this horse is interesting back over hurdles as he really isn't a natural over fences. He did get his head in front possibly fortuitously here in November when left in front, but was keeping on as the leader showed signs of fatigue and kept on well to score by 2l. His jumping let him down on his start after that when weak in the market on ground probably a bit too soft. Was well-held but shaped as if still in form but for his blemishes over the obstacles last time on better ground. Had every chance when blundering 5 out and still made it to the lead but another error at 3 out put paid to his chances. I think the horse is actually running fairly well but just cannot win races making the mistakes he has been making. He doesn't win very often but he has his conditions to suit and I think his handicap mark over hurdles is fair with Lucy Alexander, who has a 21% strike rate at the track, taking off a handy 5lbs for her services. The horse has placed off 103 before and 118 with 10lbs taken off (albeit held) so the 105 mark with 5lbs off gives him hope here. He goes well at the track and relishes decent ground which will suit him very well indeed. He shouldn't make any errors that will knock the stuffing out of him quite like he has been over fences and looks a little overpriced at 11/1 off bottom-weight. 3.40 Musselburgh - 3pts win Alpha One @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Chris Grant's horses could be going better but his entrant here looks one of the most interesting contenders in the field, and I think a mark of 108 might just underestimate him given the rivals he's been tried against in his relatively short career to date. He showed little in his first three starts (two bumpers, one hurdle race) before improving to be a very good 2nd at a big price at Newcastle behind the decent Jukebox Melody (now rated 120) with a 110 horse back in third. Despite this, was still a big price next time out and again put in a decent effort despite being beaten a little further. Was held by a 120-rated horse who won next time out also, and a decent type was in second, with my selection back in third. His 2l second to a 110 horse who won over fences next time also reads well and I think a mark of 108 isn't too bad over hurdles. The fact he goes to war over fences off the same mark interests me though. He looks a better chaser and ignoring his hurdling start after a break this season (inexperienced rider, drifter in the market, seven month lay-off), has looked pretty good behind two nice types. Beat a 125 rated animal (gone well since) into 3rd when chasing home the progressive Our Mick, who is now rated 142 having hacked up in a Grade 2 recently, with Alpha One beaten 14l. Not a bad effort with a further 7 back to the third. Again, he bumped into one last time in the shape of Time Out. 12l was the margin on this occasion but again, that horse has won twice since - quite well, including off 122 last time. The third horse was well-held and he was running soundly enough prior to that effort. It makes 108 look a very fair mark to me now he goes handicapping and even though this is competitive, I think he has a huge chance.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012 [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Hereford 4:30 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Gracey Bella [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 10/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 25/01/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Skybet @ 2.75 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Debutant from trainer Nicky Henderson so fitness is not an issue. She has an appeailing pedigree being half-sister to the fairly useful hurdler Night In Milan from good staying family. She is sired by Vinnie Roe and out of an Irish Point winner. Henderson has a 31% strike rate at the track the last 5 seasons; 12 winners from 39 runners with his NHF entries able to win 3 out of 8 or 38% of the races. His two NHF runners the last two weeks finished 1st and 2nd. He also has the selection entered to run at Doncaster three days from now but perhaps the training at home has been going really well to be running today. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Edberg]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012 3.30 Hereford Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor.com Handicap Hurdle Cl5 2m1f BULL MARKET @ 6/1 bog (Boylesports) I do like the chances of Bull Market in this race especially with this unexpected high odds (thought he was gonna be close second favourite at worst just behind Home Run). This son of Danehill was pretty decent on flat (4 wins, 3 seconds and 3 thirds in 28 starts) but his jumps career has been pretty disappointing. He moved from Ian Williams to Alan Jones last Summer and after two disappointing effort (one chasing) was given a long rest. His comeback at Stratford last October in a similar event to today's one (Cl5 Hcap Hurdles over 17f) was very well supported in the market and he went off as 2/1 favourite. Bull Market was held up in the first stages and travelling well made a smooth progress to get a clear lead. He made a bad mistake 2 out (actually the last as 1 hurdle was omitted) and once headed by the second favourite Bazart (85/40) was unable to overtake him again and finished second 3/4L behind the Bernard Llewellyn's horse. Bazart has boosted the form of that race going on to win off a 5lb higher mark his next start here at Hereford (again a Cl5 Hcap Hurdles over 17f) and with two more solid performances in defeats Bazart's mark has gone up to 85. Another big boost to that form has been given by Cityar as the French-bred horse trained by John O'Shea (3rd 4L behind Bull Market at Stratford) was beaten again by Bazart next time out (15 1/2L behind Bazart that day) but has gone on to win two races and collect two seconds in his next 4 starts with his handicap mark upped from 85 to 104 now. Bull Market's mark has gone from 79 to 82 but with James Best's 7lb claim compared to Rachael Green's 5lb claim of his last race the horse will be just off a 1lb higher mark today. Of course the 95-day break could sound as a concern but as it happened last time out I hope the horse has been trained for this race as surely he's not a horse able to race a lot (7th career start over hurdles and 35th overall at the age of 9). James Best has ridden 13 winners this season and has gone very close of late (4 seconds with his last 10 rides). Partnering with Alan Jones they have a 67% strike-rate this season (4 from 6) and at these odds I'm happy to support their chances. Just a quick look at the 3 main rivals. Twiston-Davies' Goat Castle is very consistent (5 seconds and 2 thirds in 14 starts over hurdles) but he's still a maiden a the age of 8 after 17 attempts (bumper, hurdle, chase). William Twiston-Davies takes 7lb off and so he's gonna race off a good mark but I can't fancy his chances to win his first race today as other horses make more appeal. One of them could be the mare trained by Rachel Hobbs, Truckers Princess who is a former PTP winner and won in her second last start a selling handicap at Market Rasen on Boxing Day. Her next and last start, back in handicap, finished with a fall and her previous two with Truckers Princess being pulled up while in her first 4 starts under rules she was always more than disappointing collecting almost 350L from the winners. On the effort she performed at Market Rasen she could be a danger in this category too but she's up 9lb from that race and is hardy to fancy with her curriculum. Mutanaker is the representative of Ed de Giles and is still 5 yo so with plenty of room for improvements especially since he has a fantastic pedigree (a son of Cape Cross and Purple Haze costed 120,000 gns as a foal). Mutanaker started his jumping career just one year ago after having shown nothing special in his first season on flat (rated 77 with 1 second in a Maiden as his best ever effort). Twelve days ago Mutanaker left his hurdles to perform on the Polytrack of Lingfield and his 4th place was not totally disgraced. Still plenty to prove over hurdles where he collected 125L in his last try in a similar race just one month ago. One of the few horses who has a win on their curriculum is Gainsborough's Art who won a Novices' Hurdles Handicap over 2m 1f at Huntingdon 3 years ago and repetead that success one year ago here at Hereford over 20f. After that win Gainsborough's Art has been more than disappointing but in his last start (5th of 9 over C&D) he showed some little improvements and with today's mark of 68 (last year won off 76) he has to be rated as one of the horses with the best chances in this race. Last but not least the favourite of the race (11/4 atm) that is Home Run a 4 yo German-bred chestnut who moved to Pipe's yard few months ago after a pretty decent career on flat in Germany (2 wins in 4 starts) and France (3 seconds in 3 starts). His three efforts so far have been pretty poor but he was facing horses of another level (Grumeti, Ashbrittle and Darlan the winners of those races) and of course the connection David Pipe-Tom Scudamore has to be respected a lot in such a poor field. Plenty to prove at the moment to be supported at this short price even if this young horse could become a decent hurdler in the future. So at these prices I'm with Bull Market in this race.

[bartrum]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012 Musselborough 1.40 I think Glenora Gale will take all the beating here. I think the going maybe a bit quick for the fav and Lucinada Russell's charge has been racing on ground which i think is two soft. I think its a 2 horse race with GG coming out on top with the money already coming for it this morning and the fav drifting. Glenora gale 1pt win 13/8 3.10 Beidh Tine Anseo (see write up in bbotd) 1pt win 11/2 pp

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012

*Hunters Belt - Musselburgh 3:10*

One of only two course and distance winners in the field and produced its best effort for a while last time it ran over hurdles when 4th over course and distance behind Simply Ned. It had a run on the flat only a couple of weeks ago and should have won, just getting touched off by Magic Millie, so the horse we know is fit and well and should be primed for this race tomorrow. It runs off its last hurdles mark but Brian Toomey takes off 5 pounds to give it an even better chance. Noel Wilson had a winner recently and has had several near misses at Musselburgh of late. Should be in the mix.

*1 Point WIN @ 5/1

VC

BOG*

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012 1:30 Hereford: Tanerko Emery 1pt e/w 10/1 Boylesports (1/5 123) Tour Dargent will be a hard nut to crack, however Taneko Emery looks worth going against him with. There is little form to go and a long time off to overcome, yet Taneko Emery has a couple of things in his favour which may enable him to shake up the favourite. Tanerko Emery ran well on his only outing in France when he ran Sang Bleu to two lengths at Auteuil. Sang Bleu was well thought of when he joined Paul Nicholls and while he may not of reached the heights anticipated he still ran second in the Juvenile Finale at Chepstow and is rated 140 over hurdles. Tanerko Emery has now joined Tim Vaughan who has a excellent record of improving his new recruits. If Tanerko Emery could emulate his run in France or even improve on that, he could go close here.

[keithbeaky]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012 Boyles will quickly restrict your account if you keep having ew bets in races like that. Just a word of warning

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012

Home Run 3.30 Hereford. 1 point win. Plenty to prove, but much better than showing and the blinkers go on for hurdling debut. Should be much better today and can exploit this current mark. Trip and ground fine. Should win. 5/1 Ladbrokes (bog)