Cheltenham Preview Nights

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights

MF: Ferdy Murphy really likes Going Wrong in the same race as Triolo D’Alene and he’s absolutely adamant it’s his each way NAP of the festival

On every preview there is a different horse, which Ferdy thinks is his best chance :lol

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights I attended a Cheltenham preview at Ripon Bowls Club last night, hosted by Tom O'Ryan (Racing UK), Graham Cunningham (Racing UK), Niall Hannity (Racing UK), Nick Robson (Press Association/Racing Plus) and George Primarolo (Betfred). Day 1 Arkle The panel generally believed Sprinter Sacre was tough to oppose in the Arkle although GC did say there isn't as much between Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre as the market suggests. Said the former was a big danger as he's strong in the finish and had a tremendous Cheltenham record. NR said Blackstairmountain might sneak a place as he'll bounce off the ground but said it wasn't a race he had a strong view in now at the prices. GC had been down to Tizzard's yard recently and spoken to Joe, who has said he will be going off all guns blazing for the first few fences and then steadying the pace. The worry was he might burn himself out to scupper his chances, while menorah's jumping remains an issue. Supreme In the Supreme, opinion was understandably divided. GP said there had been six different favs since this market formed. He liked Tetlami, who he feels will love the ground and stays further than the 2m (a plus for this race). Prospect Wells was one he thought would like the ground now back in novice company and could run a race at a price. GC was all over Trifolium for this race, said he's destined for big things and respected anything Charles Byrnes sends to the Festival (not many). He also liked Montbazon. TO said that Jason Maguire is admamant Cinders And Ashes will improve for better ground. Some of the panel expressed concern he's been beaten in Championship bumpers but TO said that Donald reports him to now be 'twice the specimen.' JLT H'Cap Chase In the JLT handicap, GC said the Quantitativeeasing price could collapse simply because of the JP McManus factor. NR liked Our Mick at 14/1, as he felt he was a real grafter, galllops, and will be suited by the step up in trip. Champion Hurdle In the Champion Hurdle the panel were very cold on Zarkandar, the feeling was he lacked the class and might want a bit further. NR said Hurricane Fly can't be beaten if he gets to the start, GC took issue with this comment and said an inform Binocular could give him something to think about as Hurricane Didn't have masses in hand over Peddlers (who ideally needs further) last year. He got the feel from his Wincanton run Binocular was back to his best. GP said Hurricane Fly has been understandably solid since his Irish win but money now coming for Rock On Ruby - the panel felt he shouldn't be much bigger than Zarkandar but because he is trained by Nicholls' assistant down the road, he escapes some of the hype surrounding those from the yard. NH said Hurricane Fly is the real deal and won well last year despite not having things run to suit, said he too felt Rock On Ruby was value at 9/1 given his strong Cheltenham record. GP later said that Hurricane Fly would be his 'lay of the festival', because of the price. Cross Country In the cross County NR mentioned that Patrick Mullins had been impressed with Uncle Junior's win first time out over the cross country fences - a rare feat, and he could be preferred ahead of Scotsirish. GC said the Irish would dominatate as ever and Sizing Australia would be hard to keep out of the frame. .....will post up the rest when I get a min

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights Ripon Bowling Club Preview Day 2 RSA NR said the RSA probably is the right race for Grands Crus but it bothers him how the favourites keep getting beaten in this race. He rates Sir Des Champs and thinks, if he doesn't run, Invictus, a neat jumper with a turn of foot, can go well. His last Cheltenham run can be forgiven after he lost a shoe. GC said he thinks Grands Crus' owners will opt for the Gold Cup because he's good enough to run a screamer. NH said Bobs Worth was a small, handy horse and was too short given his jumping. He felt Walkon was interesting and could stay on into a place now upped in trip. His strongest fancy was Join together at 7/1 NRNB - he was 'mad' on him and didn't like the Ascot form for Invictus. Neptune The panel were really sweet on Boston Bob and NH said that Ruby thinks wherever the horse goes, it will win. GP noted money for Boston Bob in the Albert Bartlett but said it could simply be people covering themselves in that race too, now there are NRNB terms. Opinion was a little colder on Simonsig, although GC did say that one of the lads in his yard had mentioned some mucus when he seemingly failed to stay the longer trip behind Fingal Bay. Champion Chase GC said of all the supposed Festival 'bankers' he'd put his life on Sizing Europe. Said Finians jumps well and is a powerful traveller but his form is not on the same level to Sizing Europe. Said Kauto Stone would come into the reckoning if it rained. GP said Sizing is solid and their traders think he'll win again. A couple of those at a big price might sneak into the frame. NH said Sizing just has to stand up to win it. His comment on Wishful thinking, the best of the night was, 'if he had a gun he'd shoot himself with it.' Coral Cup NR felt Spirit Son had been given a chance by the handicapper, has won the race before, bombed over fences, but has proven himself in this contest and could go well at a price. Fred Winter GP argued the value had gone for Vendor, who comes out best on Timeform figures (said GC). NH said Choc Thornton thinks Vendor is every bit as good as the Triumph contenders from the yard. Bumper NH has ridden Moscow Mannon out recently and reports him to be in great shape. Willie Mullins is apparently sweet on Moscow Mannon and has gone on record to say he thinks its the best bumper horse. NR mentioned Sir Johnson, whose won four bumpers. He spoke to trainer Peter Bowen recently, who reports the horse to be in great shape. Feels he's been forgotten about at 16/1 because he's been off for a bit. TO said New Years Eve looks the real deal and the booking of Barry Geraghy is a big positive.

[beaker1]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at KNARESBOROUGH thursday, March 8th The same panel as last year were invited back namely Channel 4 Racing’s Jim McGrath (JM), Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author Paul Jones (PJ), Nick Robson (NR) (aka The Fox) of Racing Plus Newspaper and Sky Bet’s Michael Shinners (MS). All 27 races were discussed. SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE JM: I was credited with tipping Darlan at an Irish preview but that is incorrect. Tetlami is narrowly top rated but not so with Timeform who have rated Darlan as if he would have gone very close at Newbury but it was a muddling heat. I’d split stakes between Steps To Freedom and Galileo’s Choice with a preference for the former. PJ: Shame Simonsig is not running as he would have been my pick. In his place I like Midnight Game best who looks to be improving at the right time and you have to respect Willie Mullins’ number one 2m novice hurdler. Darlan strikes me as being very much under-priced. NR: I have backed Montbazon but am losing confidence in him after King said he might not be quite good enough. Cinders And Ashes is the other horse I’ve backed and he is a much stronger horse this year so can finish off his race better than in the Bumper here last season. Darlan is a poor price after such a bad fall. MS: Sky Bet are betting the first five paces on this race so come to us if you want an each-way bet. It’s not a secret that J P McManus fancies Darlan so he is likely to get shorter still but I would still worry what he would find up the hill. Paddy Brennan is very bullish about Vulcanite. ARKLE TROPHY JM: I am not knocking Sprinter Sacre but 8/11 is short when he has a very worthy opponent in Al Ferof who is not too far behind on figures and he could have been one of the Nicholls horses off colour when he was third atAscot. Cue Card makes too many mistakes, even when he won at Newbury last time out. If you gave me a free bet I would back Al Ferof as his price is marginally bigger than I think it should be. PJ: I can’t really see angle into having a bet here and now as the only way I see Sprinter Sacre not winning is by being too brave at a fence. The hill argument is a complete red herring, it’s a shorter race than the Supreme for starters and he was only a shell of a horse last year. Al Ferof was flat out according to Walsh in the Supreme over 2m½f and again in the Victor Chandler over 2m1f so I suspect he will be again here over 2m and the bird may well have flown by the time his stamina kicks in. NR: A mistake is the only potential downfall that can stop Sprinter Sacre. Blackstairmountain strikes me as the each-way value and top of the ground will suit if that is the case. He is the only potentially overpriced horse. MS: There is bound to be a price war so it is likely Sprinter Sacre will touch Evens somewhere at some point but I can’t oppose him. JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE JM: I think Quantitativeeasing will run very well. He was my original fancy and although I am a bit alarmed he is now top weight I will stick with him. His win here in December is working out very well. He has earned his weight rise. Tullamore Dew is another I respect as he is in form and has twice placed in Festival handicaps before. PJ: I have recently come round to thinking Our Mick is the bet. I do like novices in this race and fancy he is the best of those and is open to improvement upped in trip and he just keeps finding. Riguez Dancer is my idea of the best long shot if he squeezes in for Ferdy Murphy and hisDoncasterrun two starts back was eye-catching. I hear Hold On Julio is still not pleasing King and he works on Saturday and then a decision will be taken if he runs or not. If Quantitativeeasing wins off 155, he will be the first winner in over 30 years to be rated over 150 so he isn’t for me. He would probably have to run to 162 or better to win I would have thought and I just don’t think he is that good. NR: I couldn’t have Quantitativeeasing off top weight. Hold On Julio clouted a fence or two at Sandown and had a couple of setbacks so it’s Our Mick for me who is crying out for 3m and novices have a good record in the race. MS: We’re keen on Quantitativeeasing and trying to keep out of the way of him. There will be a price war on the day on the race for sure. CHAMPION HURDLE JM: Hurricane Fly has won ten Grade 1s and was only ridden to win last year’s race rather than to run away with it so I am not worried he didn’t win by far. Zarkandar is the least exposed runner in the field and I thought he did well to win at Newbury and won smug in the end. If Hurricane Fly is to be beaten, then I can only see Zarkandar doing so. PJ: I’m not opposing Hurricane Fly. I like both Overturn and Thousand Stars in the without Hurricane Fly market. Overturn as he is massively overpriced in this market given he is joint top rated with Binocular if you take out the favourite which of course you can for this market and he worked very well last week. Thousand Stars also as I can see him being ridden to finish second like Theatreworld was three times behind his stablemate, Istabraq. Both strike me as good each-way bets without the favourite. NR: Hurricane Fly should win of course but Binocular has the class to put it up to him though I feel Rock On Ruby is the value on his Kempton second to Binocular. Overturn appeals as best of the bigger prices and he would bounce off good ground. MS: We’re 4/6 Hurricane Fly and will lay the field against him. tUESDAY SHOULDER RACES JM: Outside of Quevega, Baby Shine could place in the Mares Hurdle and Blazing Tempo would also be interesting if she ran. Noel O’Brien (Ireland’s chief handicapper) told me that Scotsirish is one of the best handicapped horses of the week and he runs in the Cross Country. I am sure Bless The Wings will run well in the novices’ handicap chase even though it was the other course he won over atCheltenhamlast time. He won with something in hand with his ears flicking. PJ: I liked Our Girl Salley to be second to Quevega in the Mares Hurdle but Betfair is telling us this evening she may have had a setback. I think Scotsirish will kill his rivals for speed in the Cross Country being able to hold his own in Grade 1 2m races and noting the ground is likely to ride fast on that course. I like Bless The Wings for the win and Vino Griego e/w in the novices’ handicap at first glance but it’s not a race I have looked at closely as yet. NR: Shop Dj or Baby Shine would be my each-way alternatives to Quevega in the Mares Hurdle. Uncle Junior offers better value than Scotsirish of the Mullins pair in the Cross Country. The only other option is Sizing Australia on similar ground to what he won on in last year’s race. Bless The Wings has a good chance in the novice handicap and White Star Line is a bit of value with his form tying in with Hidden Cyclone. MS: Quevega is different class to these and this looks a worse Mares Hurdle than the last two years. Our Girl Salley back in trip has e/w chance as she was the best horse at the weights when third atAscotlast time. Scotsirish was smashed off the boards for the cross country race here in December when he took the wrong course so looks the one with Sizing Australia only 5lbs than when winning last year being each-way value. I am not convinced about Triolo D’Alene’s jumping who is likely to be favourite in the novice handicap. Carrick Boy needed to win earlier this week to get in the race with a penalty which he did and he has gone under the radar a bit and would be my fancy. NH CHASE JM: Alle Garde has an each-way chance even on the figures of races that weren’t up with his best form. He has a good chance of winning on his Leopardstown Grade 1 third behind Last Instalment. Mullins has a good hand as also has Soll but Alle Garde is more experienced and would be my fancy. PJ: I like Alle Garde. I just think his Leopardstown run behind Last Instalment and First Lieutenant is the best form on offer and that run was also on good ground like it could be on Wednesday whereas it was heavy when he was beaten next time. NR: Patrick Mullins has described Alle Garde has his best ride of the week and he has the most ability of these on his placed effort in a Grade 1 race. Teaforthree and Soll would want softer ground than is likely. MS: Harry The Viking has been ante-post favourite but he looks a bit quirky to me and may want professional handling. Alfie Spinner has the best British form so appeals as an each-way bet. NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NOVICES’ HURDLE JM: Without question I would run Boston Bob in the Albert Bartlett. Until we know where he runs it hard to have a strong view about the race. PJ: I liked Sous Les Cieux for this after he won the Royal Bond, then went off him after a couple of defeats, but am coming round to him again. Partly as market moves suggest Boston Bob could be Albert Bartlett bound which tells me that Mullins rates them both highly so wants to keep them apart. I would have preferred to see Simonsig in the Supreme as question whether he has the guts for a race like theNeptunewhere they have to battle hard to win. On decent ground I also see Make Your Mark being a big player. NR: I wouldn’t give up on Boston Bob running here. His owner told Andy Stewart this is where he wants to run. If he runs then Boston Bob is the bet of the meeting, if not, then I would switch to Make Your Mark MS: We’re happy to lay Simonsig. Monksland likes decent ground and would be of interest if it came up such a surface. RSA CHASE JM: Grands Crus is not as short as he should be and providing he runs here he is one of the bets of the meeting. As he is such a strong traveller the view from many is that he won’t stay but, for me, the only danger is the ground. He is a neat and accurate jumper that goes left-handed and right-handed and will win if the ground is okay. PJ: I would be against Grands Crus wherever he runs as I’ve never seen him win a race when he had to battle and RSA Chases are rarely won with ease. I backed Bobs Worth straight after the Feltham as he just has RSA type written all over him and am happy with that bet though I am not sure I would back him at current odds. NR: I’ve backed Invictus so was disappointed to hear he is doubtful now after a setback today. Bobs Worth doesn’t jump well enough so I would go with whatever Gigginstown decide to run between Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE JM: Colm Murphy does really well with his top horses in top races so I wouldn’t judge Big Zeb on his Tied Cottage run. That said, it hard to get away from Sizing Europe who is an even better horse this year than last year so lump on. PJ: It’s very simple really. SizingEuropeis even better this season and this year’s race is not at good as 12 months ago so at odds-against then he is a bet and I don’t usually back shorties at the Festival. NR: SizingEuropewill have to fall to get beat. Finian’s Rainbow just looks lethargic. Kauto Stone could hit the frame on his Tingle Creek form. MS: I think Kauto Stone could go well and be the one to give Sizing Europe most to do if you ignoreAscotlast time when he ran too freely. You can get 13/8 elsewhere (Boylesports) that Sizing Europe starts odds-on which is a good price. He will lengthen and then shorten up before the race and it’s a much shorter than 13/8 chance that he will go off odds-on. WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES JM: CapeDutchis of interest if getting in the Coral Cup. I was with John Ferguson last week and this is one of three horses he feels has realistic e/w chances this week (others being New Year’s Eve and Cotton Mill). He was second to a well handicapped horse of Nicholls’ at the Open Meeting and had a break since. When I was inIrelandI didn’t get strong vibes they thought they would win the Bumper but they have some strong contenders notably Clonbanon Lad. PJ: Batonnier might switch from theNeptuneto the Coral Cup and, if so, I like his chances off 138. Final Approach would be higher than I like ratings-wise on trends but he is not much higher than when winning theCountyHurdlefrom an impossible position last year so is well handicapped for me and open to more improvement at this trip. Edeymi is my idea of the Fred Winter winner. Vendor is an atrocious price off back of Alan King’s comments he is very well in as half the field will also be well in. Moscow Mannon is the most likely winner of the Bumper for me but no strong view in that race. NR: Sir Johnson is 4-4 inbumpers and been put away for this since the autumn by Peter Bowen and has been overlooked.SpiritRiverwon the Coral Cup two years ago and is only 4lbs higher this time. I like his chance and that ofFeatherbed Lane. Edeymi appeals most in the Fred Winter though his trainer’s recent record atCheltenhamis a worry. MS: If Batonnier runs in the Coral Cup then we want to keep him on side. We have seen money for Act Of Kalanisi and Dr Newland has won this race before. Kazlian and Ulck De Linn are the two we have seen money for in the Fred Winter but also respect Charles Byrnes’ Arnaud. I can pass on a good word in the Bumper for David O’Meara’s Ifandbutwhynot who is likely to be a big price. JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE JM: Cristal Bonus has been most impressive since having a wind op after joining Nicholls and is my fancy. Sir Des Champs has also been impressive but whether he has as much tactical speed over this trip as Cristal Bonus would be a slight worry. PJ: Sir Des Champs and Cristal Bonus have been my two fancies against the field for a while but after speaking to Nicholls last week, he told me that Cristal Bonus would be much better jumping left handed so given how impressive he was going the other way at Kempton last time, then he would be the one for me. NR: No strong view but Sir Des Champs if he runs and I have had a good word e/w fromIrelandfor Call The Police. MS: I was at Kempton when Cristal Bonus won and he really was impressive. Peddlers Cross has switched here from the Arkle as his schooling wasn’t what they wanted but there are more fences to jump here. We will want to get him. RYANAIR CHASE JM: Cheekpieces seemed to sharpen up Somersby atAscotlast time and he keeps putting up solid figures and has a good overall record so he would be my preference. Riverside Theatre is a very exuberant horse and I am one of his doubters. It is a fact that he ran disappointingly at the Festival before. PJ: I like Somersby each-way as feel it is hard to see him not run his race so he should place at worst if he runs to his form and you might even hit the jackpot. He has been placed twice at the Festival before don’t forget and cheekpieces seemed to sweeten him up atAscot. Rubi Light may want softer, Noble Prince may want faster and they have something to prove on pure form with the best of the Brits so both could be under-priced. NR: I spoke to Paul Nolan who wants McCoy to ride Noble Prince but he looks set to be claimed for Albertas Run so Davy Russell will ride if that is the case. Rubi Light looks solid for a top three finish and handles decent ground as we saw when he was third last year. He is one of my bets of the meeting. MS: If it comes up decent ground I confidently expect Noble Prince to start a clear favourite. WORLD HURDLE JM: Oscar Whisky is good value at 6/1 if you take the view that he will stay. He is not certain to on pedigree but he has a good chance of getting the trip. I think Big Buck’s will be ridden prominently and gradually pull horses off the bridle. PJ: I’m not opposing Big Buck’s but feel Mourad offers some value each-way in the without favourite market now that he has found his form again and was third last year and front running might be the making of him. NR: No strong opinion but Voler La Vedette each-way without Big Buck’s makes some appeal. MS: If I was take on Big Buck’s it would be with So Young who is still unexposed and may have won the Neptune last year had he jumped the final flight properly. THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES JM: Our Father was ridden with unbelievable confidence last time and is clearly a contender for the Pertemps Final. Sivola De Sivola is another that makes appeals as is Jetson who won the Leopardstown qualifier with more in hand than the margin suggested. Crack Away Jack could be well handicapped. He was bombing away at the time of a bad mistake here in November and I would probably want to be with him in the Plate. I know Brackloon High runs in the Kim Muir and he was fifth at the Open Meeting over hurdles and been running well over fences since and would be a speculative selection. PJ: No view yet on the Kim Muir, Buena Vista each-way in the Pertemps Final could easily come off for the fifth year running as Pipe is putting up a 10lbs claimer this year and he did win it easily last year with a 5lbs claimer and is just 2lbs higher and I like Crack Away Jack in the Plate as he has tip-top Festival form and the vibes are that Nicholls has him back to near his best so he could be very nicely treated compared to his hurdles rating. NR: I like Michael Flips in the Plate who looks pretty well handicapped having been second in a Grade 1 novice chase last time and also respect Salut Flo. Baile Anrai is interesting if he runs in the Kim Muir where I also like Helpston. I am looking atSapphirRiverin the Pertemps Final who has decent French form. MS: We’re keen on Sivola De Sivola in the Pertemps Final and also feel Catch Me has been lined up for this for a while. Salut Flo and Divers have been best backed with us for the Plate. I like Helpston for the Kim Muir and also Micks Delight for Victor Dartnall. TRIUMPH HURDLE JM: I backed Shadow Catcher last time and felt he should have won. He was going like a winner throughout and why he hit the front as early as two out I don’t know. He travelled best through the race by some way. I took 20/1 for the Triumph soon after and that is my only ante post bet. PJ: Grumeti looks bomb proof each-way and I rate him as the best of the Brits but do feel the Irish have a real chance this year in a race they have not won for 10 years. I would expect Shadow Catcher to reverse form with Hisaabaat from Leopardstown and rate him and Darroun as the main dangers. NR: Grumeti really does look rock solid to run a big race. I couldn’t have Sadler’s Risk but Shadow Catcher has good each-way claims. MS: If you fancy an each-way bet it might be best to wait until the day as it looks like being a big field and you could get four places. I fancy Sadlers Risk to reverse Adonis form with Baby Mix. It’s wide open and could even 6/1 favourite on the day. Pearl Swan each-way for me. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE JM: As with theNeptune, hard to give any strong views until we know where Boston Bob is running. PJ: Having backed Mount Benbulben for this about two months ago at a much bigger price than he is now I really hope Boston Bob heads for the Neptune as I do rate his second to Boston Bob as the next best piece of form in the Albert Bartlett by quite a way. NR: Hard to see beyond Boston Bob orMountBenbulbenthough Fox Appeal is improving steadily and could run a big race. MS: BrindisiBreeze is our worst result of the Festival if he wins having laid it at 33/1 before he won by half the track last time out. I’d take on Rocky Creek. GOLD CUP JM: If Long Run runs to the same form as in last year’s race then he will win. He is still very hard to knock on paper and I thought he ran a fantastic race when second to Kauto Star in the King George for a real stayer and Kauto was ridden beautifully that day. The fact remains, however, that Long Run did make a couple of errors in Gold Cup last season and his runs in the Paddy Power and RSA at Cheltenham here were littered with mistakes. Some ridiculous things have been said about Sam Waley-Cohen but he is a very capable amateur. I so think that Long Run will drift on the day. PJ: I just have a feeling we will get a result here. I’ve liked Weird Al’s each-way chances for a while but they are now starting to firm up even more following Kauto Star’s schooling fall and rumours all is not 100% with Long Run. I don’t fancy Grands Crus to stay looking how he fell away in the French Champion Hurdle over 3m1½f. Weird All goes best fresh, loves the track and represents an upwardly mobile yard and I have gone in again. I could also see Knockara Beau running on strongly through beaten horses and could even grab a place at huge odds like so many of his ilk have done before. NR: I expect Grands Crus and Kauto Star to both run. Long Run is the most likely winner but is too skinny so it’s Synchronised and Weird Al that have most place potential. MS: I am sure Long Run will drift so see no point in anyone backing him now. Burton Port has the potential to bounce so I am looking at What A Friend to sneak into frame as he needed the run at Newbury last time and only just missed out on a place by a short head last year. FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES JM: Salsify wants decent ground and has good form and is my Foxhunters’ selection. I doubt whether Chapoturgeon will stay the Gold Cup trip and Barbers Shop is a bit of a monkey these days. Tanks For That runs the course well and he should run well in the Grand Annual forHenderson. I would run Prospect Wells in the County if he were mine and rate him one of the bets of the meeting if they do with Brampour holding the weights down. My three against the field for the Martin Pipe are Bourne, Balgarry and Poole Master who all look ahead of the handicapper if they get in. PJ: I like On The Fringe for the Foxhunters’ who was fourth last year as just a 6yo and was an encouraging third to Salsify giving weight on his only run since last month. Citizenship should love the extra1fand uphill finish compared to Leopardstown when he won last time finishing very strongly and he and Dirar are my two against the field in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle. I have a sneaky feeling Free World may be a third long-term plot in the Grand Annual for Arthur Moore having won twice fairly recently. Not looked at the Martin Pipe yet and probably won’t until the day as it’s a nightmare. NR: Raya Star should be on the premises in the County off a strong pace which he hasn’t had on his last two starts yet still won atAscotand went close at Newbury. Ubi Ace wants a fast 2m and is not to be underestimated and also has just moved to Jonjo O’Neill from Tim Walford. McCain thinksCloudy Laneis his best bet of the meeting in the Foxhunters’.CapeDutchis interesting if he gets in the Martin Pipe. Lucky William interests me for the Grand Annual and does Bellvano who might get the race run to suit. MS: Snap Tie has shortened most with us for theCountyHurdlebut a lot of punters are waiting to see what happens in the Imperial Cup first. We will be ducking Salsify in the Foxhunters’. We saw money this morning for Toner D’Oudairies for the Martin Pipe and Gordon Elliott has commented on Twitter tonight he is switching to this race. Toubab is likely to well backed in the Grand Annual as it’s the getting out stakes and the Nicholls-Walsh horse always is.

[tgc100969]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights I attended the Cheltenham preview night at Sedgefield races on Thursday night Ian Turner racing manager to Alan King said Grumeti was pretty much a standing dish in the Triumph Hurdle and would win comfortably He also tipped Vendor in the Fred Winter claiming it was 16lb better than its current handicap mark Other horses strongly tipped by the panel were Weird Al in the Gold Cup they all agreed for various reasons why the front 2 in the market couldn't win, Sivola de Sivola in the Pertemps was strongly fancied and lastly Its a Gimme in the County Hurdle. I am placing an e/w lucky 31 on the 5 Good luck everyone

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights

Ian Turner racing manager to Alan King said Grumeti was pretty much a standing dish in the Triumph Hurdle and would win comfortably

LOL Is Iain Turner not Racing Manager to the McNeil familly rather than Alan King? That is what I thought but I could be wrong

[beaker1]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at the LYGON ARMS, CHIPPING CAMPDEN The Panel was chaired by Stewart Machin and professional punter and author Alan Potts (AP), Alan King’s assistant trainer Noel Williams (NW), leading Welsh trainer Tim Vaughan (TV), racing commentator and broadcaster Richard Hoiles (RH) and Sean Graham Bookmakers’ on-course layer Ronan Graham (RG). All 27 races were discussed. SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE AP: The English won’t win it. Not seen any to impress me, they all look Plumpton horses to me. How Darlan is favourite for falling over last time out heaven only knows, everything was still on the bridle 2 out as they crawled and his previous form means nothing. I like Midnight Game who looks a different horse going left-handed to right-handed and is his ex Flat speed should be suited to the likely decent ground. NW: I can vouch that Montbazon put in a sensational piece of work recently as Alan reported. I thought he was wet behind the years at start of season and he will only be better next year but he is improving fast. He needs to step up again but he has an each-way chance at the very least. TV: Probably Jimbill will be our runner. He’s definitely coming back to form but needs to improve a lot. He beat Montbazon in a bumper but that horse is improving fast and I would make Alan King’s horse a big player and just prefer him to Cinders And Ashes. I can’t have Darlan, Cheltenham is a different story to flat tracks as you have to graft. RH: If Zarkandar had fallen 2 out at Newbury and not Darlan would he have shortened as much for the Champion Hurdle as much as Darlan did for the Supreme? Seems odd to me that he has cut on the basis that some think he would have with ease. I do like Cinders And Ashes, he has impressed me on all his starts and gets the vote. I also like Prospect Wells who has been forgotten about and is overpriced on his form with Steps To Freedom and he has had a wind op since he got stuck in bad ground at Sandown in the Tolworth. RG: No banker for punters this year unlike the last three years. Darlan is the price he is now due to his connections. I can see him shortening up further as momentum gets behind him. I do fancy the Irish but don’t think Galileo’s Choice has done enough. Allure Of Illusion is a big price and my each-way selection. He was third to Steps To Freedom and Montbazon at Aintree last season giving weight and there is no way in the world he is a 33/1 shot, especially with five places available (with Sky Bet). ARKLE TROPHY AP: Sprinter Sacre will slaughter Al Ferof. There are 13 fences in the Arkle and he will take 2 lengths out of him at each fence. As for staying up the hill, there are two fences in the home straight in the Arkle these days which won’t suit Al Ferof. The only horse that beat Sprinter Sacre is Sprinter Sacre. He is the best novice chaser I have ever seen. NW: Sprinter Sacre is obviously very high class and has loads of speed but I can’t get it out of my head that he didn’t get up the hill last year and I can’t see him doing it this year either. I’m an Al Ferof fan as he loves that hill and is also very high class. TV: Sprinter Sacre should win but to find the winner you have to often go back to the top rated hurdler which is Menorah and Hobbs’ horses are starting to come right now and think he can be seriously competitive and I would rather go for him each-way. I would rather back Hurricane Fly at a similar price than Sprinter Sacre who could be a bridle horse and I don’t like them at Cheltenham. Al Ferof is a grinder and I do like them at Cheltenham. RH: I do think Sprinter Sacre will get up the hill unless he is too enthusiastic and they going absolutely nuts. He has jumped immaculately every single time. If they go slowly then Sprinter Sacre could pull too hard but the market looks about right and Menorah can be the one to take advantage if Sprinter Sacre has any flaws. I’m just trying to find a scenario how he can beat. A complete no bet race for me. RG: Not impossible could only be only six or seven runners. We will be best price about Sprinter Sacre on Tuesday morning. It’s not that we don’t fancy him, we just think he and Al Ferof should be closer together in the betting. At Evens Sprinter Sacre is a lay. CHAMPION HURDLE AP: I don’t really expect Hurricane Fly to get beat. This might sound like an odd thing to say but I don’t think Binocular is at his best going left-handed. It’s a mark of his inconsistency that when he won the Champion Hurdle he started the biggest price of his life. I don’t fancy Zarkandar as his Newbury form isn’t good enough. Rock On Ruby could be the one for second. NW: It is difficult for the 5yos so Zarkandar isn’t for me. I know we won it with a 5yo in Katchit but being honest it wasn’t the best running, we have to be realistic about that. Rock On Ruby can be the danger to Hurricane Fly. TV: Hurricane Fly is an absolute certainty. I can’t see Zarkandar having a Scooby-do of a chance and he came back with a mucky nose last time. Walsh hasn’t even hinted about switching to any of the Nicholls horses. Hurricane Fly is the bet of the meeting and it’s a joke he is as big as Evens. RH: The market isn’t as one-sided as the betting suggests for me. I’ve traded out of my Binocular bet but happy to stick with my ante-post bet on Rock On Ruby. Why he chased Overturn at Kempton which set it up for Binocular I don’t know so I still think he is a big player and each-way without Hurricane Fly still makes plenty of appeal. RG: No matter how good he is we have to go and try and lay Hurricane Fly at odds-on and I ask myself the question was last year’s Champion Hurdle as good as many think? Not in my opinion. No one wanted to back him at Leopardstown. If Darlan and Sprinter Sacre get beat I will be taking him on big time. I can’t see Binocular drifting and he would be for me. TUESDAY SHOULDER RACES AP: I can’t have Quantitativeeasing off top weight in the JLT but am fascinated by The Package who has not been out of the first three in four starts at Cheltenham but the price is pretty skinny now. He’d be my choice, shame about the price now. A horse owned by Alan Potts won the Cross Country last year so I got my usual selection of well done messages! It’s embarrassing to think I even have an interest in this race so no selection and apparently the other Alan Potts gets equally hacked off when asked for tips! Quincy De Pictons is an interesting runner in the novice handicap and I don’t think I’ve seen a much easier winner this season than him at Chepstow. The yard know how to land a coup and I feel they will know how to get him spot on. NW: I’m still trying to get it out of Alan whether Walkon will run in the JLT but Hold On Julio will and although he got baffled by The Railway Fences last time at Sandown he still won very well and it’s a blessing he has had not had a run since then as I was desperate to see him go here as he goes well fresh and his handicap mark was preserved. Double Dizzy would be off the radar for most people but was third here in November and also won the Sussex National and would be my each-way selection in the Cross Country. Bless The Wings is on target for the novice handicap chase and his mark of 138 is in the right kind of ballpark for the race. I think he is worth an extra length or two on his last win as idled a bit as hit the front a bit early. TV: Bottman will run in the JLT and ran a blinder at Cheltenham last time where he ran on like a train after being flat out all the way and this is3flonger. He has an engine but whether he is quite good enough I don’t know but I feel he can be competitive off a featherweight. I’ll keep the Cross Country simple and go for Scotsirish. The plan is to run Saint Are in the novice handicap chase. I am convinced he is better on a flat, left-handed track on faster ground. He needs everything in his favour to win. RH: I like previous Festival form in the handicaps so Tullamore Dew appeals in the JLT. I’ll go with A New Story e/w in Cross Country even though he is a geriatric. I like Kennford Grey Lady e/w without Quevega in the Mares Hurdle. She got a shocker of a ride at Ascot last time and is better than the winner that day, Violin Davis. Vino Griego is a back-to-lay as he travels like a dream but doesn’t finish strongly. He was fourth last year in the novice handicap chase when he tanked through the race and is 1lb lower and I hear they will hold on to him for longer this time. He is too big at 25/1. RG: The JLT is usually won by a fancied English horse and Tullamore Dew makes lots of appeal having twice placed at the meeting before. I’d be worried that Scotsirish will get 3m7f in the Cross Country and he is favourite so I will be keeping Sizing Australia and Maljimar on my side. I hear Shop Dj is working well and she could run well in the Mares Hurdle and won convincingly last time. Mark Winstanely has put up Triolo D’Alene has his nap of the first day in the novice handicap and Mick Fitzgerald his nap of the meeting at our Belfast Preview night. I quite like Dessie Hughes’ White Star Line who despite being a maiden over fences, he has only had good ground once and on that occasion ran First Lieutenant fairly close and this has been the target for a long time. NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NOVICES’ HURDLE AP: I think that Simonsig could outclass what look moderate rivals. Fact is when he second at Sandown he had a subsequent Grade 2 winner 16 lengths behind. If he is to be beaten then it will be by a grinder and Poole Master might be the one as the longer the race went on last time the better he looked. NW: Alan is still undecided if we run Batonnier here or in the Coral Cup off 138. I think Alan fancies him to run a big race wherever he goes. He is improving fast in a short space of time. I think Secret Edge will go for this and gets a 9lbs 4yo allowance though he does look pretty exposed. This is his trip though and was only beaten 5l by Batonnier last time and he is tough. TV: Simonsig looks a bridle horse and Henderson loves speed horses. He is all class but I didn’t like the way he cut out at Sandown but the fast ground could help in this respect. RH: The two best staying novices are Fingal Bay for the Brits and Boston Bob for the Irish but both are unlikely so it’s an odd race in that respect. I think Simonsig is a two-miler and he is a good horse but a bit like Darlan and want to see what he can do off the bridle. Monksland now looks best of the Irish after Boston Bob likely to switch. RG: We hear Boston Bob definitely goes for the Albert Bartlett this evening. Shame as this was the race tailor made for him but probably dictated by the yard having other runners. I couldn’t have Sous Les Cieux on my mind who has no turn of foot and think Make Your Mark is the best of the Mullins pair in this race and he is crying out for decent ground. Cotton Mill if he runs here is overpriced. RSA CHASE AP: I’d run Grands Crus in the Jewson. I came away from Newbury when he won over 3m and thought I had seen a very high class 2m4f horse. I put Bobs Worth’s poor jumping down to racing right handed and to finish as close as he has the last twice is a testament to his talent. He is unbeaten in three starts at Cheltenham and looks every inch a typical grinding RSA type and is the guaranteed stayer so with gritted teeth I tip another Henderson horse. NW: Now Invictus is out it is possible Walkon could run and he is crying out for 3m. I wouldn’t even be considering the Gold Cup with Grands Crus, I think he will struggle to get a strongly run 3m let alone the longer Gold Cup trip. Bobs Worth will be better left-handed and by all accounts he wasn’t tip top last time when second to Invictus last time like he will be for this. TV: No brainer for me, I would Grands Crus here. Join Together is another I like and he is a real stayer so this race will suit. Most RSA Chase winners have a recent prep race and Grands Crus hasn’t run since Boxing Day. I wouldn’t back Bobs Worth for all the tea in China. RH: Bobs Worth is a tough horse but I am worried about his jumping and not sure it is down to running right handed. The accumulation of lots of little mistakes is more worrying that belting one for me. Vibes suggest Grands Crus more likely to run here but who knows? Most interesting horse is First Lieutenant who has been trained for this for a long time and I fancy him to run better than his form so far on better ground. RG: Once non runner no bet came in we were hit with bets for Sir Des Champs but he may go for the Jewson. You couldn’t give Bobs Worth away at Ascot and he didn’t jump a fence but was still only beaten 3 lengths so that was an outstanding performance. My worry with First Lieutenant is that his trainer has had only 3 winners this year and they were Rathlin, Rathlin and Rathlin. Tom Costello sold Join Together to Nicholls and is adamant he needs soft ground. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE AP: I think Sizing Europe will win but I can’t bring myself to back a 10-year-old in a Grade 1 2m chase. Big Zeb is even older and even Finian’s Rainbow is 9 which older than I like for 2m chasers. I really hope Henrietta Knight doesn’t get it in her head to run Somersby here. I think Sizing Europe will win more or less by default. NW: No strong opinion but Sizing Europe should win, Big Zeb should be second and something not good enough should be third. TV: Sizing Europe is an absolute certainty. You have to be bold at these preview nights! His Cheltenham record speaks for itself. RH: I was negative on Finian’s Rainbow in the Arkle last year and am again here, they constantly change their mind about his trip. I think he has a hole in him when he comes off the bridle. I think Sizing Europe wins. He is a different horse now they have changed their schedule in how he travels over. He is more solid that Sprinter Sacre or Hurricane Fly for me. RG: Sizing Europe was 10/1 last year but he is Evens this year so we have to take him on. Has he peaked too soon this year? Bar the front three in the market, I don’t think anything else can win. Big Zeb is better value at 5/1. 5/4 a place Big Zeb appeals. WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES AP: Stamina is the biggest question mark over my fancy Alfie Spinner in the NH Chase. He is a sound jumper and has a bit of class and an experienced amateur in Sam Waley-Cohen but his sire, Alflora, doesn’t get many stout stayers. Regards the Coral Cup, just to mention Poole Master again as he is 9lbs well in if he gets in and imagine this is the main aim if he squeezes in the handicap. The Handicapper has definitely dropped a clanger with Ulck De Linn for the Fred Winter. He has run not in Britain but has run in a 1m7f chase in France. The horse he beat then easily by 5 lengths was then second in a Grade 1. This is definitely not a 130 horse and the Handicappers have been making big mistakes about French hurdling form for the last five years. I like Red Inca as well but he has had to qualify in Britain and looks to have been lined up for this race. He can be best of the British horses. I don’t watch or have any interest in any bumpers. NW: Robbie Henderson is booked to ride Iron Chancellor for us in the NH Chase. He was run off his feet at Fakenham and is probably not classy enough though I expect him to relish four miles and he has earned his right to run. I like Charlie Longsdon’s Universal Soldier and don’t dismiss Mid Div And Creep hitting the frame at a big price as he was second in the Foxhunters’ last year. We covered Batonnier earlier on but I spotted Star Of Angels for David Pipe in the Coral Cup if he gets in as he has had problems so is possibly unexposed despite his age. We run Ardlui and Vendor in the Fred Winter. Vendor has high class form in France but despite two falls we’ve seen little evidence he is a bad jumper. On a line through our Triumph Hurdle horses, he would be every bit as good as those and he is much better than a 129 horse which he runs off. Royal Guardsman would be my fancy for the Bumper. TV: Bens Folly might not like the ground in the NH Chase and has plenty to find on ratings and Our Island wants bottomless ground and it looks like being fast. We run First Fandango in the Coral Cup as feel it is harder to win the Martin Pipe and he loves fast ground that he hasn’t had this season. He is in exceptionally good form at home and could sneak a place at a very big price and he is one of my better each-way chances of the week. No strong view on the Fred Winter but Vendor looks to have the right profile and his handicap mark looks very accommodating shall we say. RH: Will Biddick has been booked for Harry The Viking in the NH Chase who was once a professional jockey which is allowed if back to amateur status but just think he is a bit slow and there is no Jonjo O’Neill spot the yak game this year to choose from. Megastar is one of my bets of the week in the Coral Cup. He has had a long running tooth abcess all season and has now had the tooth taken out and he seems that much happier. He has run well in the Bumper and Neptune in the last two Festivals and only has 136 to run off here which looks well treated on his Bumper form and he is way too big at 40/1 and really gone under the radar and likes good ground too. The Fred Winter is one of my favourite races of the Festival and I totally agree with Alan Potts that ex-French horses get in very well in. I backed Ulck De Linn a few weeks back and I also give a chance to Venetia Williams’ Moujik Borget. He ran behind Une Artiste last time with no blinkers which he raced with in France so expect them to come back on and he also has good-ground form in France. No real view on the Bumper. Of the horses I have called, Village Vic has travelled best. RG: The only one they want to be on is Allee Garde recently and no one wants his stable mate Soll in the NH Chase and I can see the gamble continuing right until the off. Glens Boy could be one at a big price in this race for Henrietta Knight. The Coral Cup looks impossible but It’s A Gimme sticks out to me who is trained by Jonjo O’Neill who loves getting one ready for races like this. Musawam is 33/1 but is better than his form figures suggest for Gordon Elliott for the Fred Winter and if there is any money for him then I would be very interested. The Irish bumper horses don’t look superstars but Moscow Mannon would be 5/2 if trained by Willie Mullins. His rider won’t be able to claim his 7lbs though so he is already 7lbs worse off. I think Jezki is the best of the Irish and Royal Guardsman the best of the Brits. We laid six different horses in the Ascor bumper Royal Guardsman won so I am sure that was a strong bumper. JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE AP: I do hope Peddlers Cross doesn’t win. In novice chases I like the best jumpers so that means Cristal Bonus who has been brilliant over his fences in his two chase starts NW: Kumbeshwar goes here or the Grand Annual and he will have blinkers on the first time for us wherever he goes. TV: Peddlers Cross wins if he is right but McCain wouldn’t run him if he wasn’t. If Champion Court was trained by Henderson or Nicholls he would much shorter. RH: Peddlers Cross has clearly had issues but said to be sparkling more of late. I don’t know which Peddlers Cross will turn up so will go with Sir Des Champs. RG: I want to take Peddlers Cross and Cristal Bonus on. The latter would be 10/1 if not trained by Nicholls. RYANAIR CHASE AP: I’ve been let down by Somersby more times than I care to count. I do think the New Course is much more suited to his style of racing though and he had that here. Rubi Light can’t win on fast ground. Somersby is the best horse in the race though he has been for others and not won those. NW: It’s 95% certain Medermit runs here. We want to try 3m at some point soon though. You have to throw him into the mix and he has a great chance of making the frame. Noble Prince is the one to beat. TV: I hear Noble Prince has had his problems this season. Medermit is a very solid horse so each-way material but probably a nearly horse. Rubi Light for me. RH: No strong views. Interesting to see if McCoy rides Albertas Run or Noble Prince. I don’t fancy Rubi Light on the likely ground. RG: Paul Nolan is having a poor run which is offputting for Noble Prince. I couldn’t dream of backing Rubi Light at 5/1 who looks good getting a solo out in front on bottomless ground but this will be very different. He’s shocking value and I will be standing him and Noble Prince. Medermit for me over Somersby. WORLD HURDLE AP: One danger to Big Buck’s is really quick ground as he is now a 9-year-old. NW: I could see Oscar Whisky finish unplaced if he tries to put it up to Big Buck’s too early. TV: I think Oscar Whisky has an outstanding chance. He is a serious machine and can find improvement for the step up trip. The Big Buck’s run has to come to an end sometime RG: I think this is the most open World Hurdle for ages. I like So Young and he destroyed Trifolium last time who Charles Byrnes really rates. I take the view Big Buck’s’ run has to come to an end sometime and, at the price, I think he is the lay of the meeting and bookmakers will be queuing up to take him on. We’ll be going hell for leather to lay him. THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES AP: Michael Scudamore’s Saphir River is another ex French horse and was sold for 280,000 euros and heads for the Pertemps Final so is interesting on his British debut but they clearly have too much money. TV: Tartak will have his first run for us in the Byrne Group Plate. If he was back to his best he has an outstanding chance off 148 but it’s a tall order given the problems he has had. RH: J P McManus has bought Catch Me who is hardly a spring chicken so he is interesting in the Pertemps Final. RG: I hear Our Father is potentially top class so he is the one for me in the Pertemps Final. TRIUMPH HURDLE AP: This is the most open Triumph in many a year with nine horses covered by 8lbs. Baby Mix looks like a horse with a physical problem. I thought Grumeti’s best run was his hurdling debut and he might be better on right-handed tracks. I think he is a stone cold certainty for the Grade 1 at Punchestown. I would go for Pearl Swan if forced to bet having got his head in front of Grumeti last time giving 3lbs and there is more to come. He reminds me of Celestial Halo but by God it’s difficult this year. NW: Choc will school Grumeti and Balder Succes tomorrow and make a decision and it will be a tough decision. Grumeti is the harder and more experienced and has as good a chance as anything but I love Balder Succes as a prospect, he is a frame really and still developing. He has done all his winning on soft but that is just the way it has fallen and it wouldn’t bother me if it came up good ground as he has a good-ground action. His work on Wednesday was nothing short of sensational. He is just about the most exciting horse in the yard in my opinion. TV: I know Richard Johnson is very keen on Sadlers Risk and he thinks he will improve for the Kempton run which was needed and will love the hill and is 100% confident he will reverse with Baby Mix. Dodging Bullets each-way if he runs too. RH: I will be laying Baby Mix for a place and will be surprised if he even handles the preliminaries as he is a fruitcake. I’ve already done my money on Ranjaan. RG: I think Sadlers Risk will start favourite. The money for him over the last couple of days has been telling. The Irish are much of a muchness. I wouldn’t be rushing to back those. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE AP: Boston Bob looks to have 10lbs-12lbs in hand. Nothing stands out from the rest. NW: We run Lovcen. He hacked up at Towcester but when we tried graded company he was returning from a break and was too fresh. He is very progressive and straightforward and won well last time and is crying out for 3m and his daisy cutting action suggests decent ground will be okay. TV: Captain Moonman runs for us and he beat Mount Benbulben easily in a point-to-point. He was flat out at Plumpton but Cheltenham will suit him much better. Boston Bob is a near certainty. RH: Boston Bob looks a cut above these. RG: I can see Boston Bob starting near 5/4. I see no reason why Mount Benbulben should reverse Navan form from before Christmas. GOLD CUP AP: I can’t possibly have a 12-year-old winning the Gold Cup and especially on good ground which looks likely. I don’t think Long Run is right and he fluffed 6 of the last 7 races at Kempton by jumping left handed and he was doing it again at Newbury so he is jumping fences at an angle so that is not ideal. I will be laying Kauto Star and Long Run. NW: I do think Kempton’s 3m suits Kauto Star better than Cheltenham’s 3m2½f. Not really a Weird Al fan so Burton Port is the value. TV: Long Run hasn’t visually been the same horse for me this season. Not saying he can’t win but he hasn’t improved and looks more cumbersome and lazy which is not ideal even for a top class amateur such as Sam Waley-Cohen. If Kauto Star turns up in same form as Haydock and Kempton then I don’t see why he shouldn’t win. Weird Al and Burton Port appeal as best of the rest. RH: I think the big two are vulnerable. Most Gold Cup winners aren’t the same horse the next season. I’m a big Weird Al fan. You can see he has improved since moving to McCain. I’ve never seen Geraghty ride a horse like he did Burton Port last time and he is a tough horse and he still almost beat Long Run. I bet he doesn’t sit as quietly going to the last this time. RG: I’d be laying Kauto Star and Long Run together at Evens. The horse I like is Weird Al. Change of scenary to Donald McCain has worked and he only has 10 lengths to find with Kauto Star and has a very good Cheltenham record. FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES AP: Best bet of the week for me is My Flora in the Foxhunters’. If you saw her win the John Corbett Cup at Stratford you will definitely want to be on her at a double figure price. She is great value with the mares’ allowance. NW: There should be a fair bit of improvement in Raya Star for the County Hurdle as he hasn’t had the fast pace he prefers yet. TV: I know Richard Johnson is very hopeful of Snap Tie in the County and was pleased with his racecourse gallop recently. My wife runs Picaroon in the Foxhunters’ and they will be setting a frenetic gallop I can assure you of that. RH: Snap Tie off 137 really catches the eye in the County. 887 days off but after the last time he ran he was favourite for the Arkle. The Handicapper can drop them too much for time off the track. Son Of Flicka was just beaten in the Martin Pipe last year by Sir Des Champs and has a fine Cheltenham record and can go well again even if he is likely to be the McCain second string behind Bourne. Interesting Free World is now with Arthur Moore who has won a couple of Grand Annuals. RG: The value has gone about Street Entertainer in the Martin Pipe and there is a good word for him. I think there will be a bit of a plunge on Kid Cassidy in the Grand Annual. NAPS: NW: Hurricane Fly RH: Megastar TV: Boston Bob AP: My Flora RG: Weird Al

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Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights Don't think anyone's posted this yet. Sandown Racecourse Cheltenham Preview Panel – 10th March 2012 Another of my Cheltenham ‘moles’ was at Sandown on Saturday, and Tess Hetherington – former winner of the Martin Wills Writing Award – offers her take on an evening of bonhomie with the occasional moot point, below… Immediately after the last race on Imperial Cup day, I find myself in Sandown’s Esher Hall. A spartan, brightly-lit bunker, it looks like the sort of place in which they house the survivors of natural disasters. It could do with a pot plant. The powers that be at Sandown are probably not too worried about pot plants, as they have assembled a stellar panel for this, their Cheltenham Festival preview event, and the seats are all full. The stage boasts no less than champion trainer Paul Nicholls, champion jockey AP McCoy, festival top-trainer contender Nicky Henderson, leading owner Andy Stewart, and Mr Paddy Power himself, sponsor of the event and fresh from his latest advertising-related skirmish with the establishment. This cast of stars are joined by broadcasting wunderkind Nick Luck in the chair, who kicks things off by reassuring everyone that the panel is sober and that this will not take very long. Good news for those with trains to catch, no doubt, but a more double-edged pronouncement for those hoping to get any real help with the more tricky conundrums of the festival card. We kick off with the Supreme Novices Hurdle, for which the majority of the panel seem to favour Darlan. NH says he admires the horse ‘enormously’ and that his comeback from his Newbury fall has been nothing short of amazing. AP confirms that the horse was going well when he fell, but with characteristic measure notes that two out is a long way out at Newbury. When pushed he agrees that he wouldn’t have swapped him for another in the race, but again tempers this with “from what I can remember”, and with the comment that Steps to Freedom is “a fair horse”. He also offers up Tetlami as one that could run well. NH agrees that Tetlami is very good, but thinks Darlan just might be “a touch better”. AS regards the race as wide open but his money would be on Darlan. PN cites his own Prospect Wells as a “lively outsider”, noting that he has had a breathing operation since his last run. PP agrees, reasoning that Steps to Freedom only beat Prospect Wells by a neck at Cheltenham in November and there is no way the latter horse should be three times the odds of the former. Like AP, however, PP respects Steps to Freedom – whilst the horse hasn’t run “for about ten years”, he reports that his trainer Jessica Harrington has been very strong about him of late, and notes that her Cheltenham record is in a “different gear” to many. NL asks PN which horse he’d like to train in the race other than his own and PN offers Cinders and Ashes, “if there’s a bit of juice in the ground”. Next up is the Arkle. A unison chorus of worship for Sprinter Sacre? Not on this panel. PN is bullish about Al Ferof, reporting that he worked well with Zarkandar earlier in the day, and “could not be better than he is at the moment”. He accepts that Sprinter Sacre is the one to beat, but notes that on the form there’s not a lot between them. NH, trainer of the favourite, agrees that his precocious star (“he’s a bit of a show-off”) hasn’t really beaten anything and implies that he wouldn’t be backing him at odds-on for this reason. He notes, however, that he has been beating the clock, recording impressive times in his races. He wouldn’t mind a lead in the race for a bit as the horse does take his races on and Finian’s Rainbow did that last year and “got mugged”. But this year’s contender will get up the hill – “he’s a 2 mile horse through and through”. AP and AS fancy Sprinter Sacre, AP noting that he is a “massive big horse” and was probably a bit weak last year, and that he has had a wind op since then. Both tip Menorah as good each-way value at 9s. AS thinks he has class and relays a report from the horse’s owner that he has been jumping well at home. AP is asked about Kid Cassidy but states that he won’t run in this. The horse’s trainer, sitting but two seats away, is less dogmatic but says he’s looking at the Grand Annual. NL wants a match race over 2m at Aintree between Kid Cassidy and PN’s Sanctuaire (runaway winner of the novice chase at Sandown earlier in the day) and PN says “you’re on!” PP is asked about his firm’s “money back if Sprinter Sacre wins” offer and explains that, whilst it made sense when Peddler’s Cross was still in the race, it is now looking like “commercial suicide” as “we’re up to our knickers in Al Ferof”. As things currently stand, Paddy Power will have to refund about £2m if Sprinter Sacre wins, but if Al Ferof wins they’ll be paying out around £4m. Oops. As time only allows for discussion of the bigger races, we skip straight to the Champion Hurdle. NH says Binocular is back to where he was when he won the Champion Hurdle, but PP argues that even if he is, that may not be good enough to beat Hurricane Fly, and predicts that Day 1 will be “an absolute bloodbath for the bookies”. AP is similarly guarded about his mount’s prospects, commenting that he jumped well at Wincanton and gave a better feel than at Kempton, but has still a long way to go to beat the favourite. Asked to evaluate the chances of his charges, PN thinks Rock On Ruby is the best bet at the current prices (10/1 with Paddy Power) and that Cheltenham will suit him better than Kempton, but Zarkandar has the most room for improvement. Brampour is in “great shape” and back to form. Celestial Halo didn’t cough after the Kingwell but had a “very quiet few days”. NH quips “if you’d been thumped like that you’d be entitled to a few days off!” but accepts that Celestial Halo was probably not at his peak in that race. AS concedes that Celestial Halo (his own horse) is not good enough to beat the top contenders, but queries where else they could go given his handicap mark. For Wednesday’s RSA Chase, PN is asked about Join Together, talked up by his assistant trainer Dan Skelton this week, but he’s not jumping on that particular bandwagon. He’d prefer 3m2f and the new track for the horse, and in any event thinks Grand Crus will run in this. AP agrees that on the form David Pipe’s charge will be hard to beat. His only worry is whether the horse settles well enough, the Feltham having been run perfectly for him as they went ‘crazy fast’ at the front. AS can’t see past Grand Crus but hopes that Bob’s Worth wins. NH is fairly circumspect about this prospect, explaining that he had a “difficult January” with the horse, who has had a wind op since the Feltham. (At this point I begin to wonder how long until we get to the stage where trainers switch to announcing that horses have not had a wind op….) Things have apparently gone better with Bob’s Worth of late, and NH thinks he’s definitely good enough to win, but he’s got to get into a rhythm and jump neatly. PP reports that all the money has been for Sir Des Champs who, although lucky to have remained unbeaten this season (Knockfierna had every chance of beating him at Limerick on Boxing Day when running out at the second last), is PP’s pick of the Gigginstown crew. Back to 2 miles now with the Queen Mother Champion Chase, and Sizing Europe gets the most solid support of the night. PP describes him as “almost bombproof”, noting that his jumping is more reliable than that of Moscow Flyer, and that he really has the measure of Finian’s Rainbow. NH says Finian’s Rainbow is much more relaxed this year, having approached everything “like a bull in a china shop” last season, and so can be ridden differently, but concedes that the defending champion is “the real deal”, with the only potential chink in his armour being his response to the travel from Waterford to Prestbury Park. AP agrees that Sizing Europe is the best horse, with Big Zeb, Somersby, Wishfull Thinking and Finian’s Rainbow “all much of a muchness”. He tips Kauto Stone as good value at 16/1, and PN agrees that he could run into a place, excusing his past two efforts on the basis of jumping too slowly (in the Tingle Creek) and then running too free (at Ascot). AS is the only panel member who refuses to sign up to the Sizing Europe fan club, arguing that he is “no Moscow Flyer or Flagship Uberalles” and that his price is too short. Interestingly he gives Gauvain as a good each-way bet, and insists that this is not a one-horse race. AS then kicks off the commentary on the Ryanair. He had very limited options for his horse, Poquelin, but notes that he loves the new course. PN agrees that he has a good chance. AS respects Somersby, and thinks Riverside Theatre is better right handed on a flat track. NH baulks at this, reasoning that the horse has won going left. He realises that people will look at the Arkle effort two years ago, but explains that he was never a 2m horse. This is his trip and, although there wouldn’t be a lot of improvement in him from Ascot, “you’d hope there wouldn’t need to be”. AP says Jonjo O’Neill seems happy with Alberta’s Run, who has been hard to get right this year, but Noble Prince has a bit more speed and the drying ground will help him out, giving him a very good chance. PP agrees, reasoning that he will have been trained specifically for this race and deserves to be favourite. AP also rates Captain Chris and advises thinking about him in this, especially at 16/1 NRNB. PN thinks Medermit is also interesting if he runs. PP puts in a good word for Rubi Light, who has been impressive in Ireland and ran well in this race last year, though would prefer soft ground. And on to the World Hurdle. NL asks PN if there is any reason why Big Buck’s won’t find winning this race as straightforward as he has done for the last 3 years, and is met with the riposte “Yeah – if Oscar Whisky is better than him!” There is general consensus that Oscar Whisky is better than anything Big Buck’s has met so far. AS concedes that he “oozes class” and NH reports that he’s in really good shape. The trainer starts to say he wishes he’d put him in the Champion Hurdle, before checking himself – “he’s not a Champion Hurdle horse, but I wish there was a Ryanair Hurdle!” Despite this there is, unsurprisingly, a huge amount of respect for Big Buck’s, and when asked how he would ride Oscar Whisky to beat Big Buck’s, AP quips that he’d make sure Oscar Whisky got a head start! It is difficult to see past these two, but PP offers up Mourad and So Young to run into a place if the field goes fast enough. The Triumph Hurdle looks a much more open contest, but the panel agree that Pearl Swan’s Cheltenham win is the most solid form. He is PP’s pick, and PN is amazed that he’s not favourite, given that he’s beaten Grumetiand Baby Mix and “I can get him a lot better than that”. PN thinks Grumeti is the best of the rest but gives a plug forhis own Dodging Bullets as an outsider, as the horse ran impressively last time out behind Grumeti and “has improved enormously”. PN sounds a note of caution about Balder Succes as a NH rather than Flat-bred horse, explaining that the former often struggle in the Triumph. AP would not write off Sadler’s Risk, who looked a good tough performer first time out, and PP thinks that if Baby Mix hadn’t had a “blip” behind Pearl Swan and Grumeti then he’d be clear favourite for this. NH agrees – Baby Mix got beaten on soft ground and bounced right back on good ground, and Cheltenham will be good ground by the end of the week. AS agrees that he’s worth a bet on fast ground, but he’s going for Dodging Bullets. Of the rest, PP has heard good vibes about Darroun and Shadow Catcher, and notes that the latter’s trainer, Gordon Elliott, has been sweet on him for a while. Both have much to prove on the track, however. Grand finale time, with the Gold Cup, and predictably all the chat is about the big two, Kauto Star and Long Run. Both trainers wax lyrical about the chances of their charges. PN reports that Kauto is “in the form of his life” and an “absolute certainty to run” unless there is a schooling upset on Monday, whilst NH states that Long Run is “seriously well”, but expresses the magnanimous hope that, for the good of racing, the pair are both in contention at the last. NL tries to inject some edge into this love-fest by asking whether it could be argued that, whilst PN had Kauto absolutely on song for Haydock and Kempton, Long Run has been aimed at the Gold Cup all along? His question has the desired effect, as PN immediately rejects this as “a load of bollocks”, reasoning that you don’t run in the King George with the aim of looking after the horse for the Gold Cup. (He’s right, of course.) NL then asks NH whether there is anything in the suggestion that Barry Geraghty “took one for the team” on Burton Port in the Betfair Chase, allowing Long Run a victorious prep race. NH does not say that this is “a load of bollocks”, only “a touch unfair”. Whilst this may well indicate no more than a difference in personal style between the two trainers, NH then becomes rather tongue-tied whilst trying to explain what exactly Barry did do, and ends up accepting that Burton Port didn’t want a very hard race pre Cheltenham, but reasoning that this wouldn’t have affected the result. He is clear, however, that Burton Port “has to enter the equation”, and PP thinks Burton Port might be the bet, if Sam Waley-Cohen and Ruby Walsh get caught up trying to beat each other. AS thinks Kauto Star will win it. For those looking for some value, AP thinks Synchronised has as good a chance as any of those with each-way odds, whilst PN thinks What A Friend is a big price and could easily run into a place. Nobody mentions Midnight Chase, and everyone seems to be working on the assumption that Grand Crus will go for the RSA. Before they depart the panel are asked for their charity bets, funded by Paddy Power (who also offers some extremely generous bespoke odds for their picks). PN goes for Rock On Ruby to win the Champion Hurdle, AP picks Boston Bob in the Albert Bartlett, NH selects Simonsig in the Neptune, AS puts his on Celestial Halo for a place in the Champion Hurdle, and NL goes for Shadow Catcher in the Triumph. And that was that. An enjoyable end to a fabulously sunny day’s racing, for sure, but as preview nights go, perhaps a little staid. The panel members will be among the best connected individuals at next week’s meeting, but the problem with the connections of top horses is that they are…… connected. They are inevitably going to speak about their own horses in the big races, and they are inevitably going to say what they have said before, both about their charges and the key opponents, all of which is inevitably going to be tempered with a fairly hefty degree of PR-awareness – perhaps particularly given this event’s early kick-off, tight schedule, and the absence of a bar. This is no criticism of the speakers, but as I left I couldn’t help thinking that this panel could have done with a dispassionate form nerd. And a pot plant.