Thurs: 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase

[BillyHills]

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[beaker1]

Re: Thurs: 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase BYRNE GROUP PLATE Unquestionably the hardest race at the Festival to nail the winner of in recent seasons, which may be partly down to the fact that the Byrne Group Plate has attracted the most lowest-rated horses of all the handicap chases on the park course in the last six years, Holmwood Legend’s victory at 25/1 last season extended the winning sequence of double-figure odds winners to 11. Favourites are faring better than of late with the last two both placing unlike the previous eight. Many will view Cheltenham’s two big 2½m handicap chases run before Christmas, the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 December Gold Cup, as key guides but only one Byrne Group Plate winner took part in either of those two valuable handicaps chases since 1984 which is against Divers, Finger Onthe Pulse, Holmwood Legend and Fine Parchment (contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup) and Mad Moose, Salut Flo, Matuhi and Divers again (contested the December Gold Cup). As French-breds have won six of the last 12 runnings from no way near 50% representation, that could be a good angle and their representatives are Tartak, Giorgio Quercus, Rebel De Maquis, Hector’s Choice, Notus De La Tour, Divers and Salut Flo though, annoyingly, they all fail on other stats. 15 of the last 17 winners have carried no more than 11st including the1-2-3for the last three years so on that basis the top ten in the weights would be unusual winners. You may also want to give gloss over the Irish challenge of Finger Onthe Pulse and Glam Gerry given that they have mustered just one winner since 1951. Age hasn’t been a serious factor as Mister McGoldrick won as an 11-year-old four years ago as did Terao and Elfast not all that long ago and there was also victories fortwo ten-year-olds in fairly recent times. That said, 12 of the last 13 winners had run no more than 16 times over fences so on that basis I am against Tartak, Finger Onthe Pulse, Holmwood Legend, Fine Parchment, Life Of A Luso and Kilcrea Asla. Despite the big-priced winners, only two of the last 20 winners finished outside of the top four last time out which is a negative for Schindlers Gold, Charingworth, Gibarry and Radetsky March of those not already with a statistical negative to their name. Look out for Nicky Henderson (Giorgio Quercus and Jack The Giant) who has trained four winners though both have it to do on weight stats and Venetia Williams (Niceonefrankie) who enters this season’s race with a very impressive haul of two wins and five places from 12 runners. Paul Nicholls (Crack Away Jack and Rebel De Maquis), on the other hand, is 0-21 with just two placing. SHORTLIST NICEONEFRANKIE GANSEY THE COCKNEY MACKEM (GIORGIO QUERCUS) (HECTOR’S CHOICE) CONCLUSION Venetia Williams has a terrific record in this race and NICEONEFRANKIE has scraped in by the skin of his teeth after picking up a penalty for winning at Newbury 13 days ago. Last year’s winner did likewise with a Sandown victory five days earlier. He survives the negative trends so would be the main trends pick given his trainer has won this race twice recently including recording a 1-2. Sue Smith has also won this race recently and GANSEY makes some appeal surviving all the negative trends. He ran well for a long way in this race last year and he could be a big priced outsider to consider for each-way purposes in a race which throws up big priced winners. THE COCKNEY MACKEM is certainly consistent so is another that appeals from an each-way perspective. Six second places in 11 starts could worry some that he is a weak finisher but he has been running against decent sorts and recording good times and will love decent ground so dismiss him at your peril from running another big race. No others survive all the negative trends but I include GIORGIO QUERCUS as he is a French-bred hailing from a yard with four wins in the race so he would be the strongest of the rest. HECTOR’S CHOICE also only falls down on carrying over 11st but he is bang in form, a French-bred and his trainer has a good record in this race including winning it with Super Coin and this has been his Festival aim for a long time.