Thurs: 1.30 Jewson Novices Chase

[BillyHills]

.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Thurs: 1.30 Jewson Novices Chase Given this race a bit of thought just now. Think I'll be retaining the faith in Peddlers Cross. Fits the bill, highest-rated, and has a monster chance if forgetting last time out. Goes well fresh and the yard in form. Think he'll be tough to beat. Not a bad price either.

[beaker1]

Re: Thurs: 1.30 Jewson Novices Chase JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE I know there is only one year to work off but it is worth a mention that the winner, runner-up and fourth all ran well in a handicap hurdle at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival (Noble Prince was fifth in the County Hurdle, Wishfull Thinking fell two out when bang in contention in the Coral Cup and Radium was second in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle). On that basis, Sir Des Champs, is more interesting than most having won last season’s Martin Pipe Hurdle and For Non Stop, who would probably have been second in the Coral Cup but for a last flight fall, is also worth noting. Champion Court also ran well at last year’s Festival when fourth in the Albert Bartlett but that, of course, wouldn’t compare to Peddlers Cross’ second place finish in the Champion Hurdle. Four of the 11 horses that faced the starter for the inaugural running finished first or second last time out including the 1-2 which was far from unexpected given that only three horses have failed to finish in the first two on their final start before they won either of the other big novice chases at the Festival (Arkle and RSA) in the last combined 49 runnings of those two Grade 1 races. Only Zaynar is a non qualifier this year. Maybe look to pattern-race winners over hurdles given that eight of the last ten combined winners of the Arkle and RSA Chase had achieved this feat. Obviously that brings in Peddlers Cross but also Bold Sir Brian, Champion Court, Cristal Bonus, Solix and Zaynar. Sticking with the Arkle Trophy and RSA Chase as guides that might point us in the right direction, we have had 42 combined runnings of those novice chases since 1988 and only one of those went to a horse older than eight. Throw in the six runnings of the Centenary Novices’ Handicap Chase as well and that makes it 1-50 for horses aged 8+ in novice chases at the Festival up to three miles so Red Tanber (9) would not be for me. Maybe the Dipper Chase won byChampion Courtfrom Solix and the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase won by For Non Stop from Micheal Flips will be the key guides in years to come being the two most prestigious novice chases inBritainbefore the Festival over an intermediate trip? Or even the Pendil Chase at Kempton three weeks before the Festival won by Cristal Bonus. SHORTLIST SIR DES CHAMPS PEDDLERS CROSS FOR NON STOP CONCLUSION As a big run in a handicap hurdle at the previous season’s Festival was a big factor last year, then SIR DES CHAMPS is of interest having come from a mile back to win the Martin Pipe Hurdle quite snugly in the end. I suspect he is a Grade 1 horse in a Grade 2 race and if Mullins had his way I reckon he would be in the Grade 1 RSA Chase but his owner wanted runners in both races. PEDDLERS CROSS didn’t run well in a handicap hurdle at the Festival last year, he went a step better than that by running second in the Champion Hurdle and his switch to the Jewson from the Arkle could turn out to be the right decision having witnessed the ease of Sprinter Sacre’s win on Tuesday. The worry is that he has not been pleasing as they wanted at home but the McCain horses were on fire on the opening day. Cristal Bonus jumped great when he won at Kempton last time and is an obvious threat but he has no Festival form so FOR NON STOP gets the third slot having run so well in the Coral Cup last year and he has taken well to fences winning the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Thurs: 1.30 Jewson Novices Chase 1.30 Cheltenham - 4pts win Peddlers Cross @ 7/2 (Hills) This is a big price for a horse who has top notch form if you ignore his defeat to Sprinter Sacre at Kempton this season. Donald McCain has said that he wasn't himself on that occasion, and he has a huge chance here if that was the case, and he's better now, as we're led to believe. He could never do much but live in the Arkle winner's shadow on that occasion after a mistake at the first, but this will suit much better. He returns to a left-handed track, and a track that he loves here at Cheltenham. The winner of a Neptune Investment Hurdle, and an excellent runner-up to Hurricane Fly in last year's champion hurdle, he has course form as good as most. He's got plenty of guts, and looked on course to be just as good over fences when running out a smooth winner on his first two starts over fences. He jumped great both times around Bangor, despite not beating a huge amount. Having said that, he gave 10lbs to a 148-rated hurdler when winning the latter in comprehensive style. He's not necessarily as flashy as some, but did the job with plenty in hand, before his bubble was burst somewhat at Kempton. However, the in-form McCain has said he's back to his old self now, and returns to Cheltenham on the back of a bit of a break. He goes well fresh so that doesn't concern me, and the step up in trip will suit. He saw this distance out strongly over hurdles, so will relish this greatest test he's faced yet over fences, and is the class act in the field. He has 8lbs in hand on official ratings, and whilst there are some good horses in this race, I think Peddlers Cross is very top-class, and will be tough to beat with conditions in his favour.