Flat Racing Thursday 5th

[cpo]

I know it's early in the day to start this thread but I just love the start of the Dubai carnival. Backing the Godolphin horses especially in the first couple of weeks where they can mop up the weaker races has been a pretty successful strategy for me so far. Picking the right one in each race is the tricky bit and it will be interesting to see how SBS starts off, seeing as he was upstaged last year by Al Zarooni. I have only glanced at the race card but there looks to be plenty of Godolphin horses out tomorrow. The 5f sprint looks pretty tasty.

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th 6.15 Meydan This race is to be run on turf over in Dubai and I like the look of the Irish challenge. I think this is normally to early for Mike De Kock so can count his runners out. Regal Parade is top class on his day but he would prefer it much softer so couldn't be having him here. Of the Godolphin pair I like Colonial but he was disappointing at the carnival last year. The ones I do like here are Hujaleya, Moran Gra and Dandy Boy. In last years carnival Dandy Boy won on his first outing ever at Meydan very comfortably in a similar contest. He wasn't in the best of form going into that race last year which can be said about him going into this race tomorrow. On that day he had a couple of these in behind but he did win it with great authority. He was always trvaelling well in midfield and picked up strongly to win by 2 lengths. Hujaleya finished 2nd to him in that race but is worse off at the weights. Dandy Boy is actually 3lbs lower this year so he must have a big chance. I think its highly likely that this horse will have been trained for a repeat performance. Looking at his career record, he very much looks a 7f specialist with all of his poorer runs coming at different distances. He is drawn out side tomorrow but I doubt that will make much difference to him, as he liked to be held up. Bets Dandy Boy 1.5pts EW @ 10/1 Ladbrokes

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th 4.20 Meydan Again in this race, the Irish look to have a strong challenge but the one I like is one of the English raiders in Monsieur Joe. He ran a few times at the carnival last year without success but he did grab a couple of 2nds. On both occasions he finished behind Happy Dubai. On the second occasion it was in a valuable sprint in which Prohibit finished in behind. Prohibit is a horse that interests me as this horse improved beyond all recognition when returned to the UK to win the King Stand at Royal Ascot. Now Robert Cowell trains that horse and tomorrow will be my selections first run for Robert Cowell. I think there is every chance he may be able to get a little more improvement out of Monsieur Joe. If doing so he will have a great chance in this. Last year he went well fresh and he does have a good record fresh so any absence would not be a problem for me. He has a big swing in the weights with Happy Dubai so I expect him to turn that form around with that one. Russian Rock won easy last time out but is up in grade and down in trip so I think will struggle. Humidor and Zero Money are interesting but I think the biggest threat may well come from the Irish challengers. The exuberant Mikael Barzalona takes the ride on this horse and he looks a cracking price at 10/1. He is proven over CD, he goes well fresh, top jockey on board, he is weighted to go close and he may well improved for the switch to Robert Cowell. Bet Monsieur Joe 1.5pts EW @ 10/1 Ladbrokes

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th 5.00 Meydan Was very tempted to put up City Style in this race for Godolphin as his record at the carnival reads 1-1-8-1 but there is one I think has massive claims of taking this. He has won his last 2 races now since retuning from a break of 252 days and he did it last time out very easily. This is more competitive but there were a few horses in that last race rated in the 100's and he had them well beat. Always travelling smoothly in midfield, he quickened well on the outside and won going away. He is up 8lbs for that win however so that will make life tougher here but he is in the form of his life and I think he can go in again. James Doyle has to consider himself unlucky not to get the ride in this race seeing as he rode the horse on his last 2 starts but Buick has rode the horse plenty of times in the past so that is not a worry. Think Banna Boirche along with City Style are the main dangers but hopefully Canwinn can secure the hat-trick. Bet Canwinn 4pts win @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

[skylark2009]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th

3.30 Wolverhampton -

Tornado Force

- Course, distance, class and going, Tornado Force has conditions to suit to maybe able to notch up a third win today. J Noseda has 5 wins and 4 places from his last 20 runners and 7 wins and 7 places from his last 20 runners here at Wolverhampton.

3.30 Woverhampton: Tornado Force - 10pts win @ 8/13

VCBet

(BOG)

6.10 Wolverhampton -

La Estrella

- In good form lately and won over course and distance last time out. He's been a consistent runner throughout his career and has notched up 16 wins from 42 races in total, with four of those wins here at Wolverhampton (primarily a Southwell specialist though). D Cantillon has had 8 wins and 1 place from his last 20 runners.

6.10 Wolverhampton: La Estrella - 2pts E/w @ 5/1 Boylesport (BOG)

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th Just seen canwinn is 7/1 with hills. That is massive IMO

[Jackisnice]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th Just copied across from my blog... An absolutely brilliant day yesterday as both races produced the winners mentioned. Thunderstruck hit the front quite far out, and after having a rival come upsides he found more and was on top at the line. The Rectifier was not impressive but he got the job done well enough. +49pts from 5pts staked from the 2.20. +10.75pts from 5pts staked from the 5.30. Overal on the day 59.75pts from 10pts staked. ....... 6.10 Wolverhampton This is another competitive grade four here, and one with an already volatile market. There is lots of pace in the race from Rock Of Deauville, Wild Desert, Exemplary and Ascendant, and I think that it could be perfect for BIVOUAC who usually travels well into his races. He is perceived to be a fibresand horse and I think that has contributed to his relatively large odds of 10-1, but his last run away from Southwell worked out quite well and he is 2lbs below his mark that day. Alan Swinbank has his flat horses in great form at the moment with 13 wins from his last 23 runners, and he has maintained a 16% strike rate at Wolves in the last five years. Jim Crowley is a rare booking for the yard having only ridden four times for him, but three of those were winners so it can be looked at as a positive. 2pts win on BIVOUAC at 10-1 taking BOGs. ....... 5.00 Meydan This looks a brilliant race and I am very interested in how QUICK WIT goes after following him in his second season in the UK and if he can put his last performance behind him he stands a great chance here with Kieran Fallon making it his only mount of the day. The break can be seen as a positive on the back of how he has ran after a break before. 1pt win on QUICK WIT at 10-1 taking BOGs. ....... 2.30 Meydan Another nice race which I am convinced will go to one of the Godolphin horses. I think MODERN HISTORY is worth a bet under the supposed 'third string' colours. He was highly campaigned for Andre Fabre after winning a conditions race on his second start that worked out extremely well. He then won a listed race before flopping in the French Guineas. He then was arguably disappointing in a group three, but that has thrown up a few smart performers. He ran well on his return from a break at the start of his 3yo career, and his sire's stats for the all-weather are very strong, both indicating that a big run is on the cards. 2pts win on MODERN HISTORY at 7-1 with Paddy Power taking BOGs.

[switzerland]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th

5.00 Meydan Bet Canwinn 4pts win @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

I like this one as well cpo. Good C&D form and I was particularly impressed with him lto when he won comfortably. I took the 7/1 with Hills ew which looks like a bit of value. I also like the form of Nocturnal Affair (based on his Dundalk run with Balmont Mast) but its a watching brief as its hard to know how he'll handle the surface and travel.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th 5.35 Meydan Al Rashidiya Trial Presented By Longines (Conditions Race) (Turf) 1m1f MAHBOOBA 7/4 bog (william hill, victor chandler) Most important race of the day with a bunch of highly regarded horses who should be among the protagonists of the up and coming Dubai Carnival meeting. I was really impressed by this filly trained by Mick de Kock. Derbaas and the two horses trained by Al Zarooni (Sea Lord and Laajooj) will be her main opponents today but I'll stick with the filly from Galileo. She was very good indeed one year ago here. 2132 reads her form in 2011 Carnival meeting racing between 7f and 10f with her last two places coming in the UAE Oaks and UAE Derby behind the mighty Khawlah. Before that meeting she had 3 easy wins and a 3rd at her name in South Africa and after 2011 Carnival meeting she went on winning a Listed at Newmarket and collect 3 more good results again at Newmarket, Windsor and Woodbine. According to de Kock she is in good shape and had a super start of her UAE experience already one year ago coming from a little break as it's gonna happen today. Being the only mare in the race she is getting a good advantage racing with 8-9 while her opponents will be carrying 8-13 9-0 and that could be proven as crucial because as far as concerned her rating she shows a 110 OR and Derbaas (115) and Sea Lord (113) are the only ones with better OR but will be carrying 5lb more than the daughter of Galileo. Sea Lord was highly disappointing in 2011 and also Laajooj has to show a big improvement to win in this contest. The same goes with Derbaas who won 4 times here last year but the first 3 were in weak contests and only the last one was a Group2 who lead him to have a chance in a Group1 where he finished a distant 16/16 in the Dubai Duty Free won by Presvis. Richard Hills said he has not ridden him at home yet this season but Ali Al Raihe, the trainer, and his team are happy with him. Anyway he pointed out he will come on for the run as he has been off since March and that's a big minus for me as I rate Mahbooba in better form (she raced until 16 October and had a nice break with de Kock underlining it with his words: "She has settled back in nicely and seems in great shape at home so she should be soon very competitive." I'll be with her today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th 4.20 Meydan - 1.5pts e/w Monsieur Joe @ 10/1 (Hills) - 1/4 odds Robert Cowell has picked up this horse from Walter Swinburn and I think he has a good chance today. I posted this before his most recent effort at Ascot:

4.25 Ascot - 1pt e/w Monsieur Joe @ 12/1 (VC) - BOG Monsieur Joe hasn't been at his best this season, but I think he'll have the race run to suit today, and is capable of running a big race in my opinion. He ran a superb race in Meydan to finish 2nd in a conditions race when only 1/2l behind Happy Dubai with horses including Prohibit in behind. He didn't really race in an ideal position in the valuable Al Quoz sprint next time out before he returned to today's c&d when going down narrowly behind Elnawin (won 8l since) and Noble Storm (2l listed winner since). His run at Windsor can be forgiven in my eyes seen as he's never run a good race at 6f really and his recent return to 5f was again in a small field, when I feel he's better when coming off a good pace which he should get today in this bigger field. Also, the visor was left off last time having been applied for his good runs this season. It returns today, and that could make all the difference. Walter Swinburn's horses are running well now after a quietish summer and I expect a big run from this one also.

This can safely be forgotten after he blew the start and his race was well over. He did well to pass some rivals and would have gone pretty well with an even start. He's proved he's capable of going across to Meydan and running well, and conditions suit today. He should get a nice pace to run at, and he goes well fresh. This isn't quite as strong as some of the sprints he contested in Dubai last year and I think he can go well so long as he doesn't fluff the start.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th 5.00 Meydan - 3pts win Start Right @ 3/1 (Hills) Posted this before his last run:

2.35 Sandown - 2pts e/w Start Right @ 6/1 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this prior to his run at Epsom... I think just about everyone realised what an excellent run it was at Epsom, having come from another county to finish 3rd of 18 to Dance And Dance. Was never going to get there, however good his turn of foot is. This run made him quite a fancy for the Hunt Cup at Ascot - when sent off at 8/1. He wasn't ideally drawn, and could only manage a well-held 6th of 28 - beaten 7 1/4l by Julienas. However, Dance And Dance ran a very creditable 2nd, so the Epsom form was at least held up. I'm not particularly convinced the straight mile at Ascot plays to Start Right's strengths, however. A lot of the time in these big fields at Ascot, it pays to be handy, and just grind it out much like the winner did. Naturally the run was a little bit flat, but I expect better tomorrow. First of all, Luca Cumani's horses are running excellently at the minute. 6 of his last 19 runners (excluding any he had today) have won, with 7 placing, and just 6 out of the frame. Given his overall record for June was 11-49, he was obviously hitting top form in the latter part of the month, and this bodes well for Start Right tomorrow. I would say the straight mile at Ascot can be quite lung-bursting, given the break-neck tempo throughout the race. I get the feeling Start Right will appreciate going back around a bend, where he can save a little bit for the finishing kick, which is clearly one of his best assets on a going day. This race is probably a touch easier for him, and I think he'll run a very big race.

He's since joined Godolphin and had a break, but he's gone well fresh before, and should run a huge race here. The race should be run to suit as they often are in Dubai and should be flying at the finish. The surface is a slight question mark but he won on the polytrack from one start in the UK so hopefully it won't be a concern. He got going a bit too late at Sandown and the winner had flown, but he stayed on well into 2nd, and with luck in running, should go very close today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th 4.10 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Bitter Lemon @ 4/1 (Hills) This horse has joined Tony Newcombe from Kevin Ryan, but has run some decent races over the minimum trip - which clearly suits her being from a speedy family. The all-weather has proved no problem having ran a great race in a seller on its 4th start over c&d when off very unfavourable terms - not beaten far. 6f from a wide draw wasn't very possible next time at Kempton in a better race, but bounced back to be beaten less than 2l in a handicap at Redcar last time. Back to Wolverhampton will suit, and even though she has another wide draw here, it's not as essential with 6 runners, and should go well if tuned up after a short break. This is weak.

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th

I know it's early in the day to start this thread but I just love the start of the Dubai carnival. Backing the Godolphin horses especially in the first couple of weeks where they can mop up the weaker races has been a pretty successful strategy for me so far. Picking the right one in each race is the tricky bit and it will be interesting to see how SBS starts off' date=' seeing as he was upstaged last year by Al Zarooni. I have only glanced at the race card but there looks to be plenty of Godolphin horses out tomorrow. The 5f sprint looks pretty tasty.[/quote'] Not the worst of starts for the boys in blue. Race 1 - 1st and 2nd Race 2 - 1st Race 3 - no runners Race 4 - no runners Race 5 - 1st, 2nd and 3rd 2 races to come and even though the top 2 are not with godolphin in the next it would not be the biggest surprise if 1 of their 2 runners was to win this. I probably prefer laajooj to sea lord but the de kock runner will prove tough to beat. Last race I am happy with Dandy Boy now as trainer had a close 2nd in the 5f sprint and the jockey has had a winner and a 2nd :hope

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th 6.40 Wolverhampton - 4pts win Baby Driver @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) This is a risk on a horse who is pretty uninspiring, but in this poor affair, can break the maiden tag. Has been running soundly for Tom Dascombe under these conditions before moving to the Newcombe yard and should be good enough to go close here - even with the hood removed. Had little chance of winning a maiden 3 starts ago before running well from the rear (raced wide) to finish 4th. The formline links with Idol Deputy as a couple of other threats have run behind that horse, but on figures, my selection has performed best. Last time out, Baby Driver was 3rd behind two better animals but still ran a relatively clear 3rd. The race was better than this and the winner has won twice since, and the second horse 2nd again twice since. Baby Driver is 2lbs lower in the handicap and is drawn well in stall 1.