Jump Racing; Monday 2nd January

[Lars]

GORING TWO (15:20) put in a much improved effort on all known form last time when cantering in over C&D two weeks ago. Although up 14lbs and pitched into a stronger race, I feel there’s still more to come off what still looks a lenient mark of 81 and even though there’s a couple of others in this contest with decent claims, Goring Two is far too big a price to leave un-backed. He had looked very moderate over hurdles and although showing a little bit on chasing debut, he failed to follow this up with his two subsequent starts. It may have been that he needed those two efforts after a break though as he couldn’t have been any more impressive last time, jumping and travelling well throughout and looking the winner from some way out. It would be fair to say that some of the principles within that race didn’t exactly run to their best form but this one looked to have any amount in hand and seemed to relish the soft ground, which bodes well for today’s contest. The official winning margin of 7 lengths could have been triple that if pushed out and I still feel there’s a further 10-15lbs of improvement off this rating of 81 with this animal. That being said, this is a competitive race for the grade with the favourite in Hunt Ball looking similar to that of the selection in the essence of currently being in front of the handicapper, after really taking to chasing this season with three victories in a row, going up 33lbs in the process. A fair 7lb claimer reduces the burden for him but he’s a fair price of 7/4 and definitely worth taking on. Watergate and Pensett Bay are also on potentially exploitable marks but I’ll settle for the bigger priced option in Goring Two, who adores conditions, the low weight will be in his favour and I still feel that he has plenty in hand on the handicapper. He should go really well and at a price of 9/1 is definitely worth investing in, as he’s a solid 5/1 shot in my book and deserves to be 2nd favourite in this contest which his trainer Anna Newton-Smith won in 2007. 15:20 Plumpton – Goring Two; 3pts @ 9/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[ew thief]

jan 2ed thoughts 12.40 JODAWES 4/1 (Dunno if it cant beat the jolly,but should hit the frame) 12.55 GUESS AGAIN 11/4 (has the look of a three horse race, other two like to force it, guess again could pick up the spoils) EW DOUBLE THE PAIR WIN @ PLACE GUESS AGAIN Last but no means least . . 3.00 Ayr. A back to lay of KINGS CHORISTER Travels a dream in his races , won well enough last time ideal back to lay material i m o. 5/1 at mo. Am sure i put a post up yesterday, cant find it:cow

[Edberg]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 2nd January PLUMPTON 3:20 HUNT BALL 15/8 Victor Chandler (bog) I have been impressed lately by the improvements of this 6 y.o. (7 on paper since yesterday) gelding trained by Keiran Burke. After a couple of low profile runs in hurdles races he made his first valuable appearance 8 months ago at Cheltenham when at his second start over fences he was 4th of 5 behind Balthazar King with Kieran Burke still on the saddle then. That was a class 2 event and of course the horse was not ready to face such a huge task but surely connections were happy with him already during last spring (he was a dual winninge pointer so highly regarded in his yard). He came back after a 5 months break starting his season with a nice win at Folkestone at 2m5f. He beat Free Speech (Jim Best/A P McCoy) easily and Free Speech went on winning his next out. At Folkestone Hunt Ball jumped really well and it looked soon as his second win over fences was to come soon. And so was it. Hunt Ball won again 8 days later at Fontwell another Class 5 making his debut in the Handicap Chase at 2m4f. Another comfortable success despite the penalty beating by 13l the useful Watergate. That win is very important because Hunt Ball had never won before on ground softer than good as both at Folkestone (Good to Firm) and his point wins came on sound ground. He handled the ground issue (soft) with ease. One week later Hunt Ball was again called to show his improvements in another Cl5 Hcap over 2m5f at Folkestone and he won again in style. He beat surely not a bunch of stars but his opponents were all in good form and his win came with ease (6l ahead of Time To Think in the end). I still think there is room for improvements and despite the penalty he could win again today. His main rival could be Goring Two who will be surely perfectly suited by the conditions and who is coming from a C&D win. The advantage for the Anna Newton-Smith's trained horse is surely the weight as Hunt Ball has to pay a big rise in the weights but I still think he can win today to complete an honourable 4-timer. Hunt Ball beat Goring Two by 40l when they met one month ago at Folkestone but of course back then the ground was good to firm and the big rise in weights for Hunt Ball are two big advantages for Goring Two. The other opponents don't look a big threat for him today as both Watergate and Time To Think were held with ease in Hunt Ball's last two wins at Folkestone and despite the penalty they both look still worse than my selection today. Pensnett bay won at Towcester on Boxing Day and since switched to Mark Grant's yard he's improving and could be a decent chaser but still far from Hunt Ball's level atm imho. Ceepeegee is still maiden and even if the Tizzard's horse showed some good promise back over fences lto when 12l second behind Triple Bluff at Taunton I would oppose him today. Happy to stay with the progressive and in-form Hunt Ball here.

[ew thief]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 2nd January Got to be goring for me ew at the prices 9/1 more than fair i m o.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: jan 2ed thoughts It was put in the daily threads mate there is one for all flat racing and one for jumps racing each day thats where your best putting your selections:ok :welcome and the best of luck with your bets:ok

[Tedthewolf]

Re: jan 2ed thoughts http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/jumps-racing-1st-jan-2012-a-125132/

[RussP]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 2nd January ew thief - I've moved your posts to the appropriate threads, jumps bets in here and the flat ones moved to the Flat Racing thread for today. :welcome to the forum. Just to let you know that, each day, we have 2 daily threads, one for Flat & one for Jumps. All posts should go in there:ok Look forward to reading your thoughts & selections.

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 2nd January 12.40 Plumpton The ground at Plumpton is going to be extremely testing. There are plenty of these having their first runs and a lot of these horses are not going to enjoy their first outing on a racecourse in these conditions. The favourite is far too short but push's he price out on the rest of the field. The one I do think is a little interesting and a big price is Super Ken. This horse finished 6th to Cinders and Ashes on his bumper debut at Fontwell and followed that with a win at 28/1 at the same track. He returned in November last year to run a good race on heavy ground at Fontwell over 2m4f. That day he stayed on well through the mud but appeared to not get home over the trip. He was then very disappointing last time out over the same CD but again appeared to not stay. The drop back in trip today to 2m should suit and he has already proven himself on the ground. He looks a big price at 25/1. Very small stakes but he could definitely run into a place in this. Super Ken 0.5pt EW @ 25/1 VC Bet

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 2nd January 2.45 Plumpton Sussex National Looking at the Sussex National and it looks pretty competitive. The ground is likely to be very testing so it will take some getting. Zimbabwe won a couple of outings ago but he is 23lbs out of the handicap here and surely he can’t win. He was well beaten at the track last time out and although he is a course winner, I can’t see him winning so he is first to rule out. Evella was running well last season before her final start where she was pulled up in a good handicap at Newbury. The absence with that horse must be a concern as she was pulled up on her last return to action from a long time off the track. Double Dizzy doesn’t win very often and may just prefer better ground. He stopped quickly last time out and will find this slog around Plumpton much tougher. Justabout will give talented 7lb claimer Brenden Powell a real workout in this but he would prefer quicker ground and he requires plenty of driving but has been well beaten in his last 3 starts. A definite no play for me with this one even though the trainer is in form. Near the Water takes a step into the unknown here and I don’t think it will be to his liking. This trip on this ground will surely not suit him. That leaves me with 4 to concentrate on and it is no surprise that they are the top 4 in the betting. Molly Round ran well today so I am pretty sure that one will not be taking up the engagement although I bet connections wish they had chosen this race, given how she stayed on at the finish today. Starting with Mid Div and Creep for whom there has already been money for. She is a 12 year old now but nearly produced a massive shock at Cheltenham when finishing 2nd at 100/1. She followed that run with a massively impressive performance back at that track in a Hunters Chase. She has now been switched to Lawney Hill and it’s interesting that money has already come for her. Gina Andrews retains the ride as she rode her on both occasions at Cheltenham but she will find this tough on this ground. Rate of Knots should handle conditions and has proven stamina but is prone to making jumping mistakes. Any mistakes in these conditions could really knock the stuffing out of a horse and he won’t have the assistance of the champ today so may struggle against a couple of these. I think a place is the best this horse can hope for. The 2 I do like in the race are Strongbows Legend and Diamond Brook. Strongbows Legend absolutely bolted up last time out at Hereford. I think conditions in this race will be similar. The going description at Hereford was soft but it looked very testing and only 4 runners finished the race. That was Strongbows Legend first win in 11 but he may have finally found his niche. He is up 14lbs here but clearly got on well with the young jockey last time out and I think he will love the conditions and will handle the extra distance. Charlie Longsden won this race last year so they are looking to follow up with this horse. The other horse that is interesting is Diamond Brook who ran well last time out over 4m at Exeter. He does seem to always run well at that track so he has to try and build on that here. He is inconsistent which, is a worry but that was his best run for a while. The drop back in trip should suit him and he has only once raced on heavy ground in the past but seemed to handle it as he finished a close 2nd. If building on that run at Exeter, he can make his presence felt. Nick Williams is in good form at the moment operating at a 30% strike rate but doesn’t have many runners here. Think Diamond Brook is worth backing along with the favourite. Bets Strongbows Legend 4pts win @ 11/4 PaddyPower Diamond Brook 1pt EW @ 7/1 Bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 2nd January 2.45 Plumpton - 2pts e/w Rate Of Knots @ 11/2 (Bet365) - 1/5 odds Jonjo O'Neill's charge hasn't managed to get his head in front for a while, but is very consistent without doing so, and there are no question marks with regards to the suitability of this test. He stays strongly and handles soft ground, so he has every chance of being involved at the finish today. His last five efforts have been very sound - finishing in the top three every time and staying on just about on every occasion. Upped to a marathon trip of virtually 4 miles in the Kent national saw him a close 3rd behind a progressive horse (won twice since in higher grade) and an error at the last cost him at Ffos Las when going down by a length next time. Ran well last time, but was outpaced a bit before keeping on well again at the finish - suggesting the step back up in trip will suit today. He looks sure to run his race with conditions to suit, and looks a good each-way bet with nine runners set to go to post.