Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

[Filthy Logic]

Hi guys, Gonna try my own Overs/Unders system, as Ive been so inspired by the fine work some of you have been doing in that field. Its mostly so I can keep a record of it somewhere and keep me disciplined, but if anyone wants to follow and give me any constructive criticism where needed then I would appreciated it! Ive been working on the system for quite a while, and while there will be some fine tuning that will need to be done, I am happy to start testing it out now and seeing what you guys think. The method is quite extensive, taking averages of all games, then respective home and away records depending on the teams involved, then also form and somewhat more importantly i have found, the head to head record over the past 5 meetings. The system then churns out a probabililty percentage which predicts which way the game will go in terms of goals. Then i corrolate that against the available odds and eliminates the games which offer no value. i.e. Utd home to Blackburn this week comes up with a mammoth percentage of going over 2.5, but the odds of 1.36 make it pointless. Therefore, the odds of going under or over must be greater than 1.7, thats just how Ive decided to discipline it, and it still churns out very probable (according to the percentages resulted) outcomes. The percentage must be over 66%, ie more than 2/3rd chance of it coming in. Perhaps this will be increased as we see how successful it is or not. Anyway like I say, some fine tuning will most likely be needed, but Ive been fairly successful in my trials, so lets see how we go! And with that, I give you my first 5. I will display the game, probability percentage, and odds at William Hill. OVERS

1	Barnsley - Leeds	84.59%	1.72 31st Dec
2	QPR - Norwich	74.84%	1.90 2nd Jan
3	Norwich - Fulham	72.48%	1.95 31st Dec
4	Fulham - Arsenal	66.93%	1.90 2nd Jan

UNDER

1

Swansea - Tottenham

66.58%

1.90 31st Dec

:hope

[UsManyDead]

Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system :welcome to PuntersLounge. A nice a interesting system you have here. I'll keep an eye on this, since I'm in the same business. :D I'll take a closer look at your unders, since I was unable to find a good system for these. Since you take odds as low as 1.70 you'll need a good S/R. Also you should maybe say when the matches will play, cause I was like Fulham - Arsenal :eek...when does it play?? I've checked and it's on monday. Good luck :ok