USA 2012 Politics

[AJ]

A thread to track betting related to the 2012 US election cycle. The White House is the big prize, but I think a lot of money can be made around the edges in the primary season, VP selection and Congressional races. My general thoughts are that Obama will win a second term against Rommey with a third party candidate spiting the GP vote. Going to run this with a 100pt bank and track my bets on here. First Bets Iowa 5 pts on Ron Paul @ 2.02, sure most of the value has gone, but Iowa is a strange place and Rommey's religion goes badly against him here. Iowa 1pt Saver on Michele Bachman @ 24s; She's got family good connections in the state; the caucus system has thrown up some strange results over the years.

[Ben H]

Re: USA 2012 Politics Certainly been an interesting time in the Republican race so far, frequent movements in the favourites. CNN entrance poll has Romney and Paul level and Santorum 6% behind, so going for lays of Romney for the candidacy on Betfair at 1.36, and the New Hampshire primary at 1.13. Ultimately like AJ I think he will win the race, but with such a close first primary possibly resulting in a loss for Romney and negative media coverage, and drop outs of candidates (Bachmann potentially after Iowa) meaning there could be a bigger pool of voters for an 'Anyone but Mitt' candidate to coalesce around, I think these short odds prices could offer a good trading opportunity if Romney's postion becomes perceived as more vulnerable.