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USA 2012 Politics


AJ
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A thread to track betting related to the 2012 US election cycle. The White House is the big prize, but I think a lot of money can be made around the edges in the primary season, VP selection and Congressional races. My general thoughts are that Obama will win a second term against Rommey with a third party candidate spiting the GP vote. Going to run this with a 100pt bank and track my bets on here. First Bets Iowa 5 pts on Ron Paul @ 2.02, sure most of the value has gone, but Iowa is a strange place and Rommey's religion goes badly against him here. Iowa 1pt Saver on Michele Bachman @ 24s; She's got family good connections in the state; the caucus system has thrown up some strange results over the years.

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Re: USA 2012 Politics Certainly been an interesting time in the Republican race so far, frequent movements in the favourites. CNN entrance poll has Romney and Paul level and Santorum 6% behind, so going for lays of Romney for the candidacy on Betfair at 1.36, and the New Hampshire primary at 1.13. Ultimately like AJ I think he will win the race, but with such a close first primary possibly resulting in a loss for Romney and negative media coverage, and drop outs of candidates (Bachmann potentially after Iowa) meaning there could be a bigger pool of voters for an 'Anyone but Mitt' candidate to coalesce around, I think these short odds prices could offer a good trading opportunity if Romney's postion becomes perceived as more vulnerable.

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I'm not convinced about Roomey, but the party are having a hard time picking the correct ABM candidate. He can't break 25% amongst the republican base. I really don't see how he can win in the south. Both my bet's lost in iwoa, I'm going to skip NH this week, no value that I can see at this stage, might look for a price on Rick to beat Ron for second place. South Carolina is a really interesting market, I see massive value in Santorum @ 4.4, Nate Silver on 538 has home much shorter an I'm having 5 pts on him with vauge plan to lay him off when he shortens. Btw, I have a bet on huntsman at massive odds from a year ago, let's hope he becomes the next ABM. Sent from my A500 using PL Forum

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Oh yes Nate Silvers blog is excellent isn't it? That looks a good call about south Carolina, Santorum would be strong there...would be even better if Perry would pull out although I think he will do his last stand there.... As for me, I backed Romney for new Hampshire during the vote counting the other night, it is a green screen but for very miniscule gain! My lay of him for the candidacy dosent even offer the same oppurtunity but I am still confident it will go back over 1.36 as candidates drop put and it looks tougher for him....I was Reading the Washington Post and apprantly Gingrich is not in a good mood and minded to be an attack dog to Romney- he has already started running ads attacking him on tv and print for not being the reaganite real deal, and this could chip away at romneys image....from that point it will be intesting to see the debate tonight and how that dynamic plays out(though I am making the silly mistake of being down the pub, even assuming it was on a sky channel anyway!) Ultimately though I think Romney will get there, I have noted santorum being challenged strongly on his social views in the post and on o reilly on fox. And he seems like he is a bit too generous on spending to appeal to fiscal conservatives. I am just wanting the price on Romney to go up a bit before the end!

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  • 2 weeks later...

The whole race has been a bit mental! I was very lucky in all the panic last night to get a bit on Romney at 1.69 in Betfair to green things vis a vis the 1.36 lay before Iowa. I see things have settled down and Romney is 1.47. I would still say there's a bit of value in this. Newt will be buoyed up by the fantastic victory last night, and no doubt be receiving an influx of cash, but there will be very little time to do anything with it and I did read last week he had very little organisation in Florida which is up next, and as john king pointed out on CNN last night is a state with more moderates which will be a bit of a firewall for Romney. There is also the consideration that, after a week of trying to be 'above the fray' and taking a hammering over bain capital, Romney and his massive affliated super PAC will swing into action and go negative on Gingrich, who has built up various vulnerablities over the years and can react badly to concerted attacks. I still think the Romney machine is on pole position for this but there is still a lot of politics to play out!

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I'm not convinced the money and organisation thing matters as much as it did. Social media is starting to negate it. Newt is now fav in Florida, all Mitt really has going for him with the base is that he looks like a winner. Strip that away and you have a Mega rich moderate Mormon from Mass, with a fairly wooden stump speech. All the failings that cost him four years ago are still there. He looks very short at 1.47 for the nomination. Ron Paul will stay in because he's about issues, Santorum will prob go after Fla. I'd guess his votes go heavily towards Newt. Of course the only certain winner here is Obama, longer this drags out the better it gets for him Sent from my A500 using PL Forum

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Re: USA 2012 Politics I agree with you AJ that money and organisation matters less than it did, and can see more and more of the 'party establishment' candidates being usurped in the long run (didn't work out too badly for the current President against Hillary in 2008!). However, a lot of characteristics unique to this contest make it still important here I feel. From reports I have seen its all getting very negative now, and the Romney 'machine' is reportedly carpeting Florida in negative TV ads and the like, and of course part of the advantage of having money and a big campaign team is being able to ramp these things up quickly whenever and whereever, and when you are attacked being able to mount 'rapid rebuttal' and neuter attacks. As seen with the fiasco over Romney's tax return, the big campaign certainly dosen't mean you get these things right, but it can help.... ....especially when, and I just can't get away from this, Gingrich has a talent for foot in mouth and just generally doing some incredibly incorrect things at crucial times. I read a book about the Bill Clinton years over Christmas, and it was instructive remembering how Gingrich could really turn public opinion against him at the drop of a hat with some ridiculous comment/doing. With him I would want the biggest campaign team possible to help clear up if/when this happens! Don't get me wrong, I agree with your assessment of Mitt as generally wooden and palid, and to be perfectly honest if I was American I would cast a ballot for Newt over Romney definately, but I would always be a reluctant betting backer of Gingrich. Anyway, thanks to being very busy and stupidly off the ball, looking at things, I missed the opportunity to back Romney for another point or couples worth for Florida, and thanks to his recent re-re-re-re-swing or whatever it is the odds are very low again. Pity, as another back would have offered up a chance for a nice green up, which wouldn't have been a bad thing given the polls acting like an out of control pendulum! As it is, given only having the 1.71 and with my assessment of things, looks like I'll let that run, switch on CNN Primary night, make a cup of tea and see what happens!

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  • 9 months later...

Re: USA 2012 Politics For anyone betting on this, in short, Obama wins in a canter; Good state bets to cover are Virgina (1.64) and Colorado (1.8); both of these should be 1.25 shots. In terms of ECVS Obama 310 - 329 @ 6s and Obama 330 - 349 @ 4.4 should be covered.

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Re: USA 2012 Politics

For anyone betting on this, in short, Obama wins in a canter; Good state bets to cover are Virgina (1.64) and Colorado (1.8); both of these should be 1.25 shots. In terms of ECVS Obama 310 - 329 @ 6s and Obama 330 - 349 @ 4.4 should be covered.
Both Virginia and Colorado quite comfortably by 3% :clap Obama was 0.5% up in Florida last I saw, to bring in the 330-349 :hope
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