luckis11 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Poisson hints for the reason that the goal average is higher in Holland than in France, thus etc thus that e.g. for a match between two average strength opponents is let's say: A' FRANCE-------------- A' HOLLAND p(0) p(1) p(2) p(3) -----p(0) p(1) p(2) p(3) 20% 30% 25% 15% ----10% 15% 20% 30% where p(1)=probability that each of the two teams will score 1 goal Thus that lower the probability for a draw in Holland. But Poisson assumes that the number of attacks per game is the same everywhere (it tends this number to infinity), and this already misses basic reasons. Premier League has high goal per match and high draw percentage. Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Re: Why more draws at France, England etc than Holland etc Hm, haven't you already answered your question? :unsure for the reason that the goal average is higher in Holland than in France Poisson has no clue about attacks, injuries, motivation, etc; it recognizes only numbers, so, if your only input is average number of goals per match, probability of draw is lower in Netherlands, since matches there see more goals than in England and France. According to BetVirus, this season so far: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckis11 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Re: Why more draws at France, England etc than Holland etc Any site with the stats of the average time of attack of each team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckis11 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Re: Why more draws at France, England etc than Holland etc There is a site showing where on the field each team made its shots and whether they became a goal or not. You know the site? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.