Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December

[Lars]

15:00 Leicester RANJOBAIE hasn’t shown a great deal since leaving Nicky Henderson but I’m expecting a much better effort today with a run under his belt for a yard whose runners have generally been needing an outing, and off a mark of 129 he looks attractively handicapped if getting back to anything like his best. He was a very talented novice hurdler for the aforementioned trainer, finishing only a whisker behind the winner in a Grade 3 event at Sandown over this trip, being very game in defeat. That was off this very handicap mark and he looked like a horse that could definitely be competitive off marks in the 140’s. That was in March 2010 and although he’s struggled since, he’s had an interrupted career with plenty of absences, along with not taking to fences very well (still ran well on one occasion). Reverting back to hurdles when last seen, he was pitched into a very tough class 2 hurdle at Haydock. He’d have likely struggled had he being in ideal shape anyway and should come on bundles for that run, especially as other Venetia Williams inmates have been doing similar after her customary slow-start to the Jumps campaign. Today, he drops down to a more modest 0-130 level and it’s the weakest race he’s faced over hurdles for some time. This is quite a competitive contest with two unexposed horses leading the market. There is no value in either of them really and I’d rather look elsewhere. Ranjobaie does have to bounce back in a pretty big way but I don’t think that’s unlikely. Better for the run, he has ground to suit and has no problem with this 2m4f trip, especially a testing one. The 4lb drop in the ratings back to a very workable mark of 129 is only a good thing and the more positive booking of Aidan Coleman (only ride today) will only be of benefit. He’s 20/1 and although he’s hardly the most likely winner, he’s still decent value as he has plenty in his favour today and should be around the 8/1 mark. If coming on the run, he’ll go well. RANJOBAIE; 2pts @ 20/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Monterosso]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December 3:00 Leicester - Dhaafer - 2pts @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Alan King has his string in fine order of late and Dhaafer, his only runner of the day, could step up on his previous form this season now that he gets a stiffer test of stamina. The main worries are whether he's good enough to overhaul the pair who are dominating the market but they look quite a fair way short (in the betting) to me in a race of this nature and taking a chance by opposing them looks to be the best option. What I'm most looking forward to is seeing King's 4-year-old gelding running at a relatively stiff track in a race where they're likely to go a good clip, with the free-going and speedy Fiendish Flame being the one who should ensure that there'll be a generous gallop if he's not left alone in front (was last time out). Dhaafer has always shaped as if he'd relish a good test at around this 2m 4f trip and although he was beaten a fair way from home last time out, that came at the sharp Fontwell track on soft ground in a race where he was held up in rear, which isn't ideal. He only ran on past beaten horses in the closing stages (wasn't given a hard time) but with race-fitness likely to be improved for having had a couple of runs this season, he should be coming to hand any time soon. The King yard actually punted him quite a bit on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby but he was expected to be fitter than he proved to be (according to his trainer) and it was a relatively encouraging run despite the fact that he weakened out of it a few flights from home. Robert Thornton is back on board Dhaafer for the first time this season and that's another positive. The better ground should also be much more up his street and the handicapper has dropped him 3lbs since his last run a few weeks ago. Interestingly, connections now reach for a visor to replace the cheek pieces that were on last time out and hopefully that will help him to find the bit of improvement needed to win here. King also reports that he has been pleasing him at home, although it's probably best to take that as a pinch of salt. If the market leaders don't run up to scratch (fav has plenty in hand for winning easily over C&D last week but 2/1 is a bit skinny; second fav priced on potential improvement), I'm very hopeful that this fellow will run a good race and 9/1 looks like a decent price about him. Small/medium win stakes will do the job and hopefully he'll be there or thereabouts at the business end.