Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December

[Lars]

19:00 Wolverhampton CREW CUT failed to cope with the drop to 5f last time but will be more at home at today’s trip of 6f and if replicating his run at Kempton in September, which showed he could easily outrun his current rating of 70, then he should go well for a yard in decent form of late. Jeremy Gask’s 3 year old has only one win to his name when winning in maiden company over 5f, but he’s since shaped that this 6f trip will be his optimum, putting in two good efforts at this distance in the early part of autumn. One of which, the aforementioned Kempton effort deserves extra praise as he chased a decent pace throughout in a contest that favoured those held-up. Although only 3^rd, he stuck on really nicely when those who had raced prominently faded away and it was a very promising effort, showing to me that he could potentially be competitive off marks in the mid-70s. The winner of that race went on to win again and the runner-up Libys Dream has run well since and opposes him again today (more on that later). His subsequent effort was another solid run over 6f at Bath, when 3^rd again in a competitive race for the grade, which was followed by the poor run at 5f (excusable given how quickly it was run). Although he’ll have to bounce back from a poor run at the minimum distance, he definitely has the form to go very close here back to his ideal trip. He’s been dropped 1lb in the handicap since his last start and he definitely has the ability to win off this mark, especially with this useful 7lb claimer continuing to ride him. There isn’t likely to be much in the way of pace in this contest today and it’ll probably help to be prominent, which will definitely suit the selection. This slow gallop would inconvenience plenty here (including the previously mentioned Libys Dream). This is a competitive race for sure and plenty have a chance, but CREW CUT really doesn’t deserve to be a double figure price today, even though he could be slightly better drawn. If he runs to his Kempton form on his last all-weather start at 6f, then he’ll be bang there at the finish. CREW CUT; 2pts @ 10/1 William Hill (bog)

[MRacing]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December Great info. I agree and worth a EW punt. Best of luck

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December agree with u there lars 7.00 WOLVERHAMPTON CREW CUT 10-1 1pt ew(Ladbrokes) ***** SAVER VITZNAU 25-1 0.25pt win(Paddy Power) Wrote this mid november on main selection in run at kempton.

4.40 KEMPTON CREW CUT 7-1 1pt EW Small bet at 7-1 on this runner.A very consistant sort,this runner has ran very well under this jockey for the last 4 races.Form of 3321.Ran over 6f for last two races but i think this more of a sprinter.Form over 5f is 2172.The 7 was a poor start but didnt look comfortable and does act on polytrack. The claimer takes off a handy 7 pounds,which effectively sees this running off bottom weight,carrying 1 stone less than the favourite ROCKET ROB.This year this one has beaten WOODEN KING,TRIPLE DREAM and the fancied ESTONIA and the claimer gives it a good chance at the weights against it.This one should be in top 2 or 3 at the start and push the buttons 1 furlong out and maybe hard to peg bag.

I am going to give it one more chance basically for most of the same reasons and i think it was just a poor performance and tomorrow should be on song,drawn well in stall 9 this one should be able to dominate this sprint race and go close here if on the ball and i think it will this time.The favourite here is MOUNT HOLLOW and is on form.However over 6f on turf earlier in the year CREW CUT wasnt far away from MOUNT HOLLOW and CREW CUT Is 9 pounds better off for that narrow defeat and it does handle polytrack on a going day so should go well under 7 pound claimer. just in case i am having a saver on 25-1 shot Vitznau who only ran 2 days ago at lingfield,dwelling badly at start never got into the race.If the trainer lets it go it may go well.Was winning class 2 races here off marks of 93 last year and is running in mid 60s now.It was running well in class 1 races only a few years back but looks on a serious decline,however off this weight this C&D winner could threaten in this weak race

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December 5.00 WOLVERHAMPTON~ 1PT E/W DASH BACK 11/2 Ladbrokes/ .25 RFC DASH BACK-LADY GAR GAR. Irish trained Dash Back looks to have a big shout here on a declining mark. Has a lot in its favour today goes well at this time of year, good record at the track and Jock has a win and a fourth from two rides on the horse both at this track and the win was over this distance. Never run off a mark this low (62) this 6yo must surely go close in this very ordinary C6 0-65 handicap however if there is to be a fly in the ointment it could be Lady Gar Gar who ran well here on first attempt on the AW dropped back to best trip now and is on a lower mark than turf win so a RFC on the two.

[harrisman]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December Re Crew Cut Too many negatives for my liking even at the prices. Although there is form on good turf Wolverhampton is the slowest of the Polytracks and I'm always keener on horses having CD at individual tracks as Polytracks are more different to each other than they may appear at first sight. Form translates less well between them than you think should be the case. I'm also not convinced that having a claimer in a short distance race makes much difference-if anything its normally a negative for me as its quite likely that they may make more tactical mistakes. At the prices I much prefer Darcey as its last ride at Wolv it was hampered but still ran on for third and has a higher TS

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December 4.00 Wolverhampton Wouldnt normally bet in apprentice handicaps but one sticks out like a sore thumb. Opus Maximus has joined a decent yard who are in form but will find things tougher back in handicaps having spent most of the year in claimers and sellers. Justcallmehandsome is always a threat around here but an awful start last week under this inexperienced jockey cost him dearly and will need a better start today. For me Greyfriarschorista sticks out like a sore thumb, he was a useful 3yr old winning 2 handicaps on this surface in 2010 and was a solid 2nd in the Spring Cup at lingfield in that year. Was also a solid 3rd in Brittania Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2010 not quite been in the same form since but has tumbled in the weights and showed a little more on last few runs including in a claimer last time out on softer ground than ideal when he was claimed by the very shrewd Ellison yard. They have a very good record of getting these sorts winning again and he has been given time to get him straight and narrow having been off the track for nearly 100days and now returns to the AW in a weak handicap with a very useful apprenttice in the saddle. 5pt win Greyfriarschorista 9/4 pp 7.00 Wolverhampton Wide open sprint handicap and the current favourite Mount Hollow looks well worth taking on despite winning comfortably at Southwell last week, that course can often flatter a horse returning to polytrack and a 7lb penalty looks hefty enough considering he was held off 12lb lower marks over CD earlier in the Autumn. Lucky Dan has to be of interest considering the mark he has slipped too. He is now a 1lb lower than last CD win here in january. Had a very quiet summer but showed a lot more last time out staying on from a very unpromising position, handicapper dropped him another 2lb for that effort, doesnt always need to come from such a backward place having won from a prominent position last winter and will need to do similar tonight probably as there seems a massive lack of pace in this race which is a slight concern. The other that interests me is Libys Dream who is the least exposed of these runners, she won a maiden over this trip at Kempton and improved on that effort when a nose second to Numeral on handicap debut off a 3lb lower mark than todays, easily forgive run at lingfield having got a slow start in a race where prominent runners did best she did clear best of those held up. Concern comes from her run last time outover this course over 7f trapped wide throughout and raced awkwardly and tamely fell out of the race but could be worth another chance back over 6f and at the price. 1pt win Libys Dream 9/1 pp 1pt win Lucky Dan 8/1 pp 7.30 Wolverhampton Quite a wide open handicap with several of these needing some respite from the handicapper or having to prove they can be competitive back in handicaps after runs in claimers. Bond Fastrac has always looked a better horse on ground with some cut and not shown a huge amount on the AW and now 3lb higher for latest 2nd on turf and now 9lb higher than latest win and will need to find more returned to polytrack and also on the back of a 50 day break. Ice Trooper has looked a reformed character since switched to AW and front running tactics easily landing a seller at Lingfield and even better in a handicap last time out over same CD only just reeled in by an unexposed sort making handicap debut. Worry has to be this course doesnt always pay to be the prominent one but that said he is the only confirmed front runner in the field and he may get a soft time up front and is 2lb well in here so has to be included. The other that interests me in a wide open event is Two Turtle Doves who has proved consistent recently and proved she could be as good on AW when a really good 3rd in a lower class event and although this is a step up in class she gets in here off a very low weight and be no surprise to see her go well again from a much better draw and could still have more to offer on this surface. 2pt win Ice Trooper 7/2 lads 1pt e/w Two Turtle Doves 20/1 vc

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December Huge gamble on Hurry Up George in Wolver 6:00... 10/1 into 11/4 in places, best priced 7/2.. Debutant for Crowley/Beckett, interesting, but cant back it at that price!

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December Wolverhampton 6.30 - Estonia (6.50), Desert Strike (10.00) With Red Cape, Sharp Shoes, and Wooden King wanting to go quickly from inside draws the winner could well be held-up. Red Cape won its last race round 5f at Wolverhampton but seems to have been helped by the overall pace of that race and this race may not go the same way. Best of the hold-up horses that day was Desert Strike, who is now down to his previous winning mark on the AW. Estonia is well positioned with a wide draw and can win a third race in a row, although she is 10lbs heavier than when starting this winning streak.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December

Re Crew Cut Too many negatives for my liking even at the prices. Although there is form on good turf Wolverhampton is the slowest of the Polytracks and I'm always keener on horses having CD at individual tracks as Polytracks are more different to each other than they may appear at first sight. Form translates less well between them than you think should be the case. I'm also not convinced that having a claimer in a short distance race makes much difference-if anything its normally a negative for me as its quite likely that they may make more tactical mistakes. At the prices I much prefer Darcey as its last ride at Wolv it was hampered but still ran on for third and has a higher TS

I'm one for constructive criticism and what have you, but this post doesn't make a great deal of sense to me? Besides, Crew Cut won't win probably due to the fact Jeremy Gask has hardly been very complimentary on this one's chances, I'd expect he'll be dropped out the back and they'll use the excuse of a "hard season". We will see.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December Well done Chris, shame I didn't have a saver on the winner as I mentioned her at least twice !

[harrisman]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December and painful leson learnt!! Hi Lars not 'criticism at all'-just an opinion which turned out to be incorrect - and I've just seen the result! although as things have turned out today I only had a chance to punt at the last minute on one race. the 15.50 conditional jocks chase. didnt fancy the horses at the front at the market so backed 3 at longish odds e/w. didn't see the race too busy with other stuff. never again will I do 3 longish odds horses without combining them in a Tcst/FC etc! even 10p would have paid over £130! madness!!

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 1st December and painful leson learnt!!

Hi Lars not 'criticism at all'-just an opinion which turned out to be incorrect - and I've just seen the result! although as things have turned out today I only had a chance to punt at the last minute on one race. the 15.50 conditional jocks chase. didnt fancy the horses at the front at the market so backed 3 at longish odds e/w. didn't see the race too busy with other stuff. never again will I do 3 longish odds horses without combining them in a Tcst/FC etc! even 10p would have paid over £130! madness!!

Sorry I had a go mate :ok, not in the best of moods myself. Hope you stick about this place.