Flat Racing - Tuesday, 22nd of November

[Cowan]

Getting them in early as I travel away for work this evening. Pity I don't have enough time to look at the 1.10 which is another race within my modus operandi. Southwell 12.10 - Sir Louis (13.00ew), Il Battista (5.50), Mount Hollow (9.00) This is my first bet at Southwell this season. I'm yet to know how much pace constitutes 'too much - fast' or 'not enough - slow' because the Fibresand makes it different to the other AW courses. It is supposed it rides quicker and an early lead is a great advantage. I'll err on the side of caution in this race then. Has the num.1 draw and likes to get a lead, Sir Louis has put out much better performances since coming to the Fibresand. Has risen 12lbs since the start of last season but has won at this level. This is his first run since the AW season ended in the spring but has won before when coming into a race fresh. Il Battista isn't one I would normally pick but has too much in its favour to be ignored. Has had a layoff but this is no worry given layoffs in the past. Has a record of 0/10 on the flat. But since racing on the AW has won or placed 4/9. The addition of tack helped him to win his last race and so its worn again. Seb Sanders rides which is a significant booking. I'm much more comfortable in my selection of Mount Hollow. Given all the pace in the race I like a wide-drawn hold-up horse. Has had a great 2011 having changed trainers at the end of last year. Has been coming close on AW when racing in this style and has been unlucky so far that those races have not had as much pace as he wants - this one will. Southwell 2.10 - No Mean Trick (15.00ew) Bit more of a stats bet this one. USA bred horses do very well at Southwell on account of the Fibresand being alot like the US Dirt which these horses are bred for. Its something I will look to take advantage of all season this year.

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tues 22nd Nov

This is my first bet at Southwell this season. I'm yet to know how much pace constitutes 'too much - fast' or 'not enough - slow' because the Fibresand makes it different to the other AW courses. It is supposed it rides quicker and an early lead is a great advantage. I'll err on the side of caution in this race then.

I think it rides 'slower' than the other AW surfaces because it's a deeper track The main additional advantage here (as opposed the normal advantage anywhere else) of being at the front is that you avoid kickback from the other horses. This can be quite severe, literally like having sand kicked in their face, and a lot of horses can't handle that ! Another adavantage of front running here is that you can pick your route when you turn into the home straight - ideally you want to come off the rail and run up the middle of the track, which appears to be a faster 'strip'. The 5 furlongs here is faster than Wolv or Kemp because it's run on a straight track and the deeper surface isn't as much of a slowing down factor as running round a bend. Lingfield is round a bend but is quicker because part of it is downhill From 6 furlongs upwards I reckon Southwell is the slowest of the all weather tracks. I also have a theory that because they run slower horses will stay further here - so, eg a 7 furlong horse at wolves will get 8 furlongs here..........but this theory isn't based on much evidence ! Still I do get quite a lot of winners backing milers here who step up to the next longest trip which is 11 furlongs. With no 9 or 10 furlong races the milers are often a big price because of doubts over the trip - but they seem to be able to jog the first mile at a slow pace then sprint away up the straight