Jump Racing - Friday 11th November

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.10 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Bai Zhu @ 10/1 (Paddy Power) - 1/4 odds I quite like the look of this amateur riders' handicap chase over 3 miles, and the one with the nicest profile in my eyes is Bai Zhu - from the Nicky Henderson yard. He's an enthusiastic runner, who jumps well in the main, and likes to race prominently. These traits will certainly suit an amateur rider, who should enjoy a good round on top of this horse. This will only be his fifth start over fences so he also looks relatively unexposed. He's won a bumper, a hurdle, and two chases from 9 starts so he's certainly got a good strike rate and an attitude to match. His two defeats over fences haven't been too bad, either. He won a novice chase on his first start over the bigger obstacles (beating a now 135 rated chaser) before being pitched into handicap company. He was taken on for the lead, and ended up fading to be a 7l 5th of 14. It was a decent race, though, with Vino Griego in 3rd and the progressive Stoney's Treasure in 4th. Not a bad effort for his second start over fences. He made all in March at Newbury, clinging on by a nose. The bare form of his most recent run doesn't look all too clever, but the 140l losing margin was exaggerated. He finished very tired after they went quick over the testing Gold Cup trip. He jumped well and was still in 2nd as they started the run towards the home turn, but soon felt the pinch. 3 of the first 4 were held up right in the rear - proving that they did go too quick. He's had a break, and will no doubt come back more mature after a summer of training over the bigger obstacles. One of the main reasons he interests me so much is his record fresh. He has a 100% record when returning from an absence (3-3) and he will certainly be ready for this. There are question marks over plenty of the runners in regards to the handicap (Estates Recovery, Swing Bill), trip (Pigeon Island), and many of these are only new to the chasing game. Stewarts House looks the biggest threat to me. Everything looks primed for a huge run from this horse from a powerful yard who have seen 7 of their last 9 runners win, with a second, and a faller when booked for 3rd. 1.45 Cheltenham - 1.5pts e/w I'msingingtheblues @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) David Pipe's 9yo is a classy sort, but has failed to get his head in front since January 2009. However, he's been contesting some higher quality races than this, and also has struggled to get his optimum conditions in most of his starts since. Each of his wins have come over 2 miles, with good ground clearly a preference. Since his last win, he's had these conditions twice (strictly speaking). Once was a decent 7th of 21 off a big weight in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham having lost his place during the race. The other came back in April of this year when beaten only a neck by Beggars Cap with a couple of today's rivals in behind. He's often been campaigned on softer ground, or at trips too far, so despite his long losing run, I don't think it's as bad as it looks. He is probably better on a flat track, but has won over hurdles at Cheltenham so I will give him another chance on that score. He ended last season in good form considering he wasn't really run in ideal races. The ground and the trip suit him fine here. His record fresh is also very respectable. 116F is that record, and he was still well in contention when falling 4 out in the Old Roan chase last year. This is his time of year with 4 of his 6 career wins coming between the 19th October and 12th December. He looks overpriced in this race with conditions to suit, and in a slightly easier race than he often contests. 3.30 Cheltenham - 1.5pts e/w Decoy @ 14/1 (BlueSQ) - 1/4 odds I'll be hoping for a good day for David Pipe - as I fancy another of his runners in the penultimate race of the day. A conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle is the name of the game, and I think Pipe has a well treated individual ready to progress this season. Decoy was a winner of a hurdle race in France, and showed promise on his debut in that sphere since moving to England. However, he threw in two very poor efforts in defeat following that, before showing much more the last twice. His two decent runs over 2 miles screamed out that he wanted further, and improved again when upped to 2m3f at Newton Abbot back in May. That was a rock solid race with the likes of Cockney Trucker, Owen Glendower, and Tri Nations filling the three places behind the 2nd placed Decoy. My selection only just failed by a neck that day to a horse who has shot up in the handicap since. Kylenoe Fairy was in great form when they met, so it wasn't as if that horse suddenly became progressive after their race. She won again by 17l next time out before a good 2nd in a listed event. Her mark currently stands at 134. It was 111 when she just beat Decoy. I think he's well treated on that form and because he has the scope to improve further now stepped up again in trip by another 2f. His dam's side has plenty of middle-distance flat stamina, and he's the half-brother to a decent hurdler who stays 3 miles. This trip should unlock some more ability, and the blinkers on today can aid the good young pilot Tom Molloy - as he can be a bit of a monkey. However, if they have the desired effect, and he's fit enough to do himself justice after a break, he can strike here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Jump Racing - Friday 11th November 1:45 Cheltenham Oh Crick 1pt EW - 14/1 (WH) Always needs his first race so I'm not put off by his reappearance behind Tatatiano. Runs off just two lbs higher than his last winning mark, and despite not winning for two years, he's now beginning to drop back to a workable mark, whereas before he was verging on 160, so impossible to place. Now off 141 he has a chance, has won twice at the track and will appreciate a good ground two miles.