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Teams: End your streak.............please


leony

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please Hartberg lost 0-2 so that gives another winner to the system. There has been an addition to the list after the midweek games in Turkey: Boluspor Boluspor - Kartalspor 27.11.2011 After this weekend I'll post a summary of how the 2 systems are performing. I've decided that I'll evaluate after 100 games has been played. I'm off to play some of the matches on the list for the 26th. Write you later :-)

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please These are the games I have played for tomorrow. The Sendai game is on early Saturday morning. I really hope the odd for Kaposvar is worth playing tomorrow so I can end that chase (lay odd at the moment is 950). Maybe the Saarbrücken game is a qualifier tomorrow but odds right now is rubbish and I have to go to work tomorrow so I don't if I can make it home before the game starts at 14:00.

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

31a

Italy

Juve Stabia

Grosseto - Juve Stabia

26.11.2011

3,25

1,05

2,36

30a

Italy

Torino

Torino - Livorno

26.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

29a

Belgium

Waregem

Waregem - Anderlecht

26.11.2011

4,20

1,05

3,36

28a

Japan

Sendai

G-Osaka - Sendai

26.11.2011

4,90

1,05

4,10

27a

France

Lille

Lille - Brest

26.11.2011

4,40

1,05

3,57

26a

Italy

Albinoleffe

Brescia - Albinoleffe

26.11.2011

3,75

1,05

2,89

25a

England

Exeter City

Exeter City - Tranmere

26.11.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

24a

England

AFC Wimbledon

Burton - AFC Wimbledon

26.11.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

31

Italy

Juve Stabia

Grosseto - Juve Stabia

26.11.2011

3,25

1,05

2,36

30

Italy

Torino

Torino - Livorno

26.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

29

Belgium

Waregem

Waregem - Anderlecht

26.11.2011

4,20

1,05

3,36

28

Japan

Sendai

G-Osaka - Sendai

26.11.2011

4,90

1,05

4,10

27

France

Lille

Lille - Brest

26.11.2011

4,40

1,05

3,57

26

Italy

Albinoleffe

Brescia - Albinoleffe

26.11.2011

3,75

1,05

2,89

25

England

Exeter City

Exeter City - Tranmere

26.11.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

24

England

AFC Wimbledon

Burton - AFC Wimbledon

26.11.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78
:hope
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please I've just found out that I never checked the last 5 games on the list. I was so satisfied with myself for coming home just in time to play the Saarbrücken game that I forgot that I had an open chase on Kaposvar (they won 1-0 so it would have been a winner). :@ I've decided that I will continue that chase with the next game Kaposvar plays. I think that it is fair approach considering one alternative would be deleting tha game. I'll be more careful in the future. I'll print out the list so I have it in front of me.

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please There is game that starts at 12:30 tomorrow. I'm posting it now. The Melbourne game for tomorrow is a no go for me (no money in my Aussie account on Betfair). The 2 other for tomorrow will be done tomorrow odds now aren't playable at all.

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

33

Turkey

Boluspor

Boluspor - Kartalspor

27.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

33a

Turkey

Boluspor

Boluspor - Kartalspor

27.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

:hope
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please An amazing run of 9 out of 9 yesterday. I think that calls for :beerand a :nana. Have played the last 2 games on the list today (Carese and Aris). Here is how it looks:

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

35

Cyprus

Aris

Aris - Apollon

27.11.2011

3,75

1,05

2,89

34

Italy

Carrarese

Carrarese - Sudtirol Bolzano

27.11.2011

3,45

1,05

2,57

33

Turkey

Boluspor

Boluspor - Kartalspor

27.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

32

Gerrmany

Saarbrücken

Saarbrücken - Offenbach

26.11.2011

3,50

1,05

2,63

yes

1,00

219,97

31

Italy

Juve Stabia

Grosseto - Juve Stabia

26.11.2011

3,25

1,05

2,36

yes

1,00

218,97

30

Italy

Torino

Torino - Livorno

26.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

yes

1,00

217,97

29

Belgium

Waregem

Waregem - Anderlecht

26.11.2011

4,20

1,05

3,36

yes

1,00

216,97

28

Japan

Sendai

G-Osaka - Sendai

26.11.2011

4,90

1,05

4,10

yes

1,00

215,97

27

France

Lille

Lille - Brest

26.11.2011

4,40

1,05

3,57

yes

1,00

214,97

26

Italy

Albinoleffe

Brescia - Albinoleffe

26.11.2011

3,75

1,05

2,89

yes

1,00

213,97

25

England

Exeter City

Exeter City - Tranmere

26.11.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

yes

1,00

212,97

24

England

AFC Wimbledon

Burton - AFC Wimbledon

26.11.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

yes

1,00

211,97

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

35a

Cyprus

Aris

Aris - Apollon

27.11.2011

3,75

1,05

2,89

34a

Italy

Carrarese

Carrarese - Sudtirol Bolzano

27.11.2011

3,45

1,05

2,57

33a

Turkey

Boluspor

Boluspor - Kartalspor

27.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

32a

Gerrmany

Saarbrücken

Saarbrücken - Offenbach

26.11.2011

3,50

1,05

2,63

yes

1,00

227,01

31a

Italy

Juve Stabia

Grosseto - Juve Stabia

26.11.2011

3,25

1,05

2,36

yes

1,00

226,01

30a

Italy

Torino

Torino - Livorno

26.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

yes

1,00

225,01

29a

Belgium

Waregem

Waregem - Anderlecht

26.11.2011

4,20

1,05

3,36

yes

1,00

224,01

28a

Japan

Sendai

G-Osaka - Sendai

26.11.2011

4,90

1,05

4,10

yes

1,00

223,01

27a

France

Lille

Lille - Brest

26.11.2011

4,40

1,05

3,57

yes

1,00

222,01

26a

Italy

Albinoleffe

Brescia - Albinoleffe

26.11.2011

3,75

1,05

2,89

yes

1,00

221,01

25a

England

Exeter City

Exeter City - Tranmere

26.11.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

yes

1,00

220,01

24a

England

AFC Wimbledon

Burton - AFC Wimbledon

26.11.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

yes

1,00

219,01

:hope
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please There are 2 games in the system tonight. Here is how it looks:

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

37

England

Gateshead

Mansfield - Gateshead

29.11.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

36

England

York

York - Lincoln

29.11.2011

4,10

1,05

3,26

35

Cyprus

Aris

Aris - Apollon

27.11.2011

3,75

1,05

2,89

yes

1,00

219,40

34

Italy

Carrarese

Carrarese - Sudtirol Bolzano

27.11.2011

3,45

1,05

2,57

no

-2,57

218,40

33

Turkey

Boluspor

Boluspor - Kartalspor

27.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

yes

1,00

220,97

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

37

England

Gateshead

Mansfield - Gateshead

29.11.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

36a

England

York

York - Lincoln

29.11.2011

4,10

1,05

3,26

35a

Cyprus

Aris

Aris - Apollon

27.11.2011

3,75

1,05

2,89

yes

1,00

226,44

34a

Italy

Carrarese

Carrarese - Sudtirol Bolzano

27.11.2011

3,45

1,05

2,57

no

-2,57

225,44

33a

Turkey

Boluspor

Boluspor - Kartalspor

27.11.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

yes

1,00

228,01

:hope
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please This is the rest of the list for this week:

CarrareseFeralpiSalo - Carrarese04.12.2011
Atletico GOAtletico GO - América Mineiro04.12.2011
CruzeiroCruzeiro - Atletico-MG04.12.2011
Universitario LimaDep. Un. Comercio - Universitario Lima04.12.2011
CartagenaNumancia - Cartagena03.12.2011
KonyasporKonyaspor - Gaziantep BB03.12.2011
RadRad - CZ Beograd03.12.2011
Sutjeska NiksicSutjeska Niksic - Mladost Podgorica03.12.2011
AroucaArouca - Oliveirense11.12.2011
And of course there is the Kaposvar chase that needs an ending.
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please FeralpiSalo - Carrarese is playing tonight. That game is only for the chase system. Here is how it looks:

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

34b

Italy

Carrarese

FeralpiSalo - Carrarese

02.12.2011

3,05

3,82

7,83

:hope
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please 4 games for Saturday. 2 of the English games on the list are FA Cup games so they wont be played. Neither will the Rad - CZ Beograd or the Sutjeska Niksic - Mladost Podgorica games. Here is how it looks:

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

41

Italy

Napoli

Napoli - Lecce

03.12.2011

4,80

1,05

3,99

40

Turkey

Konyaspor

Konyaspor - Gaziantep BB

03.12.2011

3,40

1,05

2,52

39

Spain

Cartagena

Numancia - Cartagena

03.12.2011

3,50

1,05

2,63

38

England

Mansfield

Mansfield - Braintree Town

03.12.2011

3,95

1,05

3,10

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

41a

Italy

Napoli

Napoli - Lecce

03.12.2011

4,80

1,05

3,99

40a

Turkey

Konyaspor

Konyaspor - Gaziantep BB

03.12.2011

3,40

1,05

2,52

39a

Spain

Cartagena

Numancia - Cartagena

03.12.2011

3,50

1,05

2,63

38a

England

Mansfield

Mansfield - Braintree Town

03.12.2011

3,95

1,05

3,10

:hope
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please 3 out of 4 on Saturday. 3 matches on the list for today (FeralpiSalo - Carrarese was played Friday) but I've decided not to make any bets since it the last round in Brazil. Since I don't know the teams' motivation level and I don't want to leave a chase open until next season starts. The Peruvian game isn't on the list at Betfair so I cannot bet on that either. Here is the updated sheets and summary after this weekend's matches.

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

41

Italy

Napoli

Napoli - Lecce

03.12.2011

4,80

1,05

3,99

yes

1,00

218,04

40

Turkey

Konyaspor

Konyaspor - Gaziantep BB

03.12.2011

3,40

1,05

2,52

yes

1,00

217,04

39

Spain

Cartagena

Numancia - Cartagena

03.12.2011

3,50

1,05

2,63

no

-2,63

216,04

38

England

Mansfield

Mansfield - Braintree Town

03.12.2011

3,95

1,05

3,10

yes

1,00

218,67

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

41a

Italy

Napoli

Napoli - Lecce

03.12.2011

4,80

1,05

3,99

yes

1,00

217,25

40a

Turkey

Konyaspor

Konyaspor - Gaziantep BB

03.12.2011

3,40

1,05

2,52

yes

1,00

216,25

39a

Spain

Cartagena

Numancia - Cartagena

03.12.2011

3,50

1,05

2,63

no

-2,63

215,25

38a

England

Mansfield

Mansfield - Braintree Town

03.12.2011

3,95

1,05

3,10

yes

1,00

217,88

Summary

Flat

Chase

Flat + Chase

Starting bank

200

Starting bank

200

Starting bank

400

Current bank

218,04

Current bank

217,25

Current bank

435,29

Total liability

132,45

Total liability

162,13

Total liability

294,58

Number of bets

41

Number of bets

44

Number of bets

85

Winning bets

35

Winning bets

37

Winning bets

72

Losing bets

6

Losing bets

7

Losing bets

13

Strike rate

85,37%

Strike rate

84,09%

Strike rate

84,71%

Yield

13,62%

Yield

10,64%

Yield

11,98%

Profit (or Loss)

18,04

Profit (or Loss)

17,25

Profit (or Loss)

35,29

Ongoing chases: Kaposvar (17a) - Carrarese (34a) - Gateshead (37a) - Cartagena (39a)

I'll be back in a couple of days with the list for the weekend to come.
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please There is some action tonight. Trying to end the Gateshead chase. Starting a new chase with Cambridge. For some reason Betfair hasn't postet and odds for the Forfar game so this game isn't played and there isn't in the system qualifiers. Here is how it looks for tonight:

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

42

England

Cambridge

Ebbsfleet - Cambridge

06.12.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

42a

England

Cambridge

Ebbsfleet - Cambridge

06.12.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

37b

England

Gateshead

Stockport - Gateshead

06.12.2011

3,60

3,98

10,35

:hope
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please Extreamly good strike rate for laying the draws of odds round 3,75 :clap As for chasing the looses: are you aware what was the longest series of draws in history :loon ? Theoreticly using excel formulas you can figure out longest bad run (for strike rate 85% within 1000 bets it will be only 3,6 game and for 10.000 bets - 4,8), but here we're not talking about simple loosing run in general, but loosing run in specific - one team. Therefore it's not so simply to predict and can kill your bank. I would say establish a cut-off point, when you will simply stop laying team A and switch your lay lader to the other team. Nevertheless: best of luck :cheers

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please Hi Arce Thank you for the input. I don't know the length of the longest streak in history. I really doesn't think it matters either (although it doesn't hurt to know the worst case scenario). In my opinion it isn't relevant if Sunderland drew 14 games in a row in 1935. I cannot promise it doesn't happen again but I hope not and there is only one way to find out. I like the numbers you have crunched in excel. You are absolutely right about having a cut-off point. The bank currently can take 3 hits and then have to strike gold in the 4th attempt to be able to continue at average odd of 3,75. Thats a 7 game draw streak. Lets hope it doesn't go to those length. If it comes to it I will declare the system a failure. Here is to hoping :cheers

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please The Chico game ended 2-2. 2 games for tonight. Here is how it looks:

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

44

Gerrmany

Hertha

Hertha - Schalke

09.12.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

43

Italy

Sampdoria

Sampdoria - Juve Stabia

09.12.2011

3,85

1,05

2,99

42

England

Cambridge

Ebbsfleet - Cambridge

06.12.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

no

-2,68

15,36

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

44a

Gerrmany

Hertha

Hertha - Schalke

09.12.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

43a

Italy

Sampdoria

Sampdoria - Juve Stabia

09.12.2011

3,85

1,05

2,99

42a

England

Cambridge

Ebbsfleet - Cambridge

06.12.2011

3,55

1,05

2,68

no

-2,68

218,35

37b

England

Gateshead

Stockport - Gateshead

06.12.2011

3,60

3,98

10,35

yes

3,78

221,03

:hope
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please I've been trying to find, but I failed :( Nevertheless, you said you are using betexplorer. Try also maybe this: http://www.sportstats.com/soccer/streaks/#draws They have more teams. Including Comunicationes from Guatemala, that had 8 draws in a row (and they won 3:0 yesterday :P) - http://www.sportstats.com/soccer/guatemala/detail/comunicaciones-37117/#results Again: Good Luck! :hope

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please Aaarggghhhh. Sampdoria scored an equalizer in 90+3 minutes of the game. Schalke won. Thanks for the website Arce. I didn't know that one. I'll have a look at it. They certainly have a lot more leagues than Betexplorer (but the question is wether or not Betfair has those leagues so the draw can be layed). And some funny streaks to. Who would have guessed that Southend is on 5 game draw streak when it comes to club friendlies :-) Again: Thank you

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please It doesn't matter if leagues can or can't be played - it's always good just to know how far things can go :) For example if you look at the no draws you can see, that actual leader has 19 non-draws streak - and that's what I would say if I didn't know that :) But I didn't know about draws, so after looking at this a would say, that 6 is a possibility, but anything more than that is an achievement. So cutoff point at 6 or 7 is mething best. Also you inspire me and I'll try (paper for now - christams is coming XD) to select 3 teams (Herta already won, also selected Freiburg and Lokeren) witch in my opinion has biggest chance of not ending their match in a draw within next 3 games. I set up my cutoff point when draws streak reach 6 games (so 3 lvl can be played).

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please Good luck to us ;) The Forfar-East Fife game has also been postponed. So 4 for the flat bet and 5 for the chase. Here is how it looks (with the results from yesterday):

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

48

Spain

Numancia

La Coruna - Numancia

10.12.2011

3,90

1,05

3,05

47

Belgium

Lokeren

Lokeren - St. Liege

10.12.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

46

Gerrmany

Freiburg

Köln - Freiburg

10.12.2011

3,70

1,05

2,84

45

Scotland

Alloa

Alloa - Queens Park

10.12.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

44

Gerrmany

Hertha

Hertha - Schalke

09.12.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

yes

1,00

213,70

43

Italy

Sampdoria

Sampdoria - Juve Stabia

09.12.2011

3,85

1,05

2,99

no

-2,99

212,37

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

48a

Spain

Numancia

La Coruna - Numancia

10.12.2011

3,90

1,05

3,05

47a

Belgium

Lokeren

Lokeren - St. Liege

10.12.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

46a

Gerrmany

Freiburg

Köln - Freiburg

10.12.2011

3,70

1,05

2,84

45a

Scotland

Alloa

Alloa - Queens Park

10.12.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

39b

Spain

Cartagena

Cartagena - Las Palmas

10.12.2011

3,35

3,87

9,09

44a

Gerrmany

Hertha

Hertha - Schalke

09.12.2011

3,65

1,05

2,78

yes

1,00

216,36

43a

Italy

Sampdoria

Sampdoria - Juve Stabia

09.12.2011

3,85

1,05

2,99

no

-2,99

215,36

:hope
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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please Hi everyone and thank you leony for sharing your system. I have been working on the "lay the draw" system for a while so I was very happy to find others working on the same system. I would definitely agree that it would be better to try to make up for lost games to some degree but the problem for me is how. Chasing the lost games is one possibility. Drawback is limited bank stamina especially if the chase goes on for 3-4 matches. The need for bank stamina could maybe be reduced by starting a chase only after 5 draw streak. Other possibilities could be to raise the stake on the next match after drawn game, or next match where there is a favorite site. I am somewhat primitive with statistic analysing tools. Some of the facts I would like to know is how much % of games after 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 draw streaks are drawn? Does anyone know of statistic analysis tool that could be used for this purpose? I would also like to know how much % of matches after 3+ draw streak where there is a favored site are drawn but I realize that is probably not possible. Good luck on your system

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please Hi skm2 There is advantages and disadvantages with every way you chose to attack this. If you start the chase after 5 draws you will get a very small number of games each season. You just have to chose the method that suits your temper and your bankroll best. I cannot help you with the % statistics.

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Re: Teams: End your streak.............please And there is some action today. 2 for the flat bet system and 3 for the chase system. The 2 Greek games on the list isn't offered by Betfair so I'm not gonna take those. 1 in Argentina tomorrow. Here is how it looks:

FLAT BET SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Bet

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

50

Portugal

Arouca

Arouca - Oliveirense

11.12.2011

3,20

1,05

2,31

49

Italy

Atalanta

Atalanta - Catania

11.12.2011

3,30

1,05

2,42

48

Spain

Numancia

La Coruna - Numancia

10.12.2011

3,90

1,05

3,05

yes

1,00

213,64

47

Belgium

Lokeren

Lokeren - St. Liege

10.12.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

no

-2,73

212,64

46

Gerrmany

Freiburg

Köln - Freiburg

10.12.2011

3,70

1,05

2,84

yes

1,00

215,37

45

Scotland

Alloa

Alloa - Queens Park

10.12.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

yes

1,00

214,37

CHASE SYSTEM - (lay draw)

Chase

Country

Team

Next match

Date

Lay odd

Stake

Liability

Bet won

Profit (-5%)

Bank

50a

Portugal

Arouca

Arouca - Oliveirense

11.12.2011

3,20

1,05

2,31

49a

Italy

Atalanta

Atalanta - Catania

11.12.2011

3,30

1,05

2,42

34c

Italy

Carrarese

Carrarese - Barletta

11.12.2011

3,35

11,99

28,18

48a

Spain

Numancia

La Coruna - Numancia

10.12.2011

3,90

1,05

3,05

yes

1,00

207,54

47a

Belgium

Lokeren

Lokeren - St. Liege

10.12.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

no

-2,73

206,54

46a

Gerrmany

Freiburg

Köln - Freiburg

10.12.2011

3,70

1,05

2,84

yes

1,00

209,27

45a

Scotland

Alloa

Alloa - Queens Park

10.12.2011

3,60

1,05

2,73

yes

1,00

208,27

39b

Spain

Cartagena

Cartagena - Las Palmas

10.12.2011

3,35

3,87

9,09

no

-9,09

207,27

:hope
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