Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

[ultravires]

	Saturday 5 November 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Palermo v Bologna (17:00 GMT)	1.72	3.8	6	101.12 %
	Novara v AS Roma (19:45 GMT)	4	3.6	2.08	100.85 %
	Sunday 6 November 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Genoa v Internazionale (11:30 GMT)	2.86	3.3	2.9	99.75 %
	AC Milan v Catania (14:00 GMT)	1.41	4.75	11	101.07 %
	Atalanta v Cagliari (14:00 GMT)	2.16	3.35	4	101.15 %
	Cesena v Lecce (14:00 GMT)	2.1	3.4	4.33	100.11 %
	Chievo v Fiorentina (14:00 GMT)	2.87	3.25	2.8	101.27 %
	Lazio v Parma (14:00 GMT)	1.65	4	7	99.89 %
	Udinese v Siena (14:00 GMT)	1.67	3.85	6.6	101.01 %
	Napoli v Juventus (19:45 GMT)	2.74	3.3	3	100.13 %

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November Udinese v. Siena The team that got trashed by Atletico last night is not the real Udinese. Of players expected to play on Sunday only Domizzi and Floro Flores started - neither of them finished 90 mins. Isla and Basta came on but everyone else played zero minutes (except Handanovic). Some players travelled but Italy to Spain is not an arduous journey. So the players will be fresh when they welcome Siena. There shouldn't be any surprises in the line-up. Floro Flores is likely to partner Di Natale as Torje hasn't been favoured of late. It should be business as usual so far as the rest of the XI goes. Udinese have been imperious at home this season collecting 4 wins and not conceding a single goal. Last week Siena ripped Chievo a new one as they beat them 4-1. By all accounts it was an impressive performance with D'agostino pulling the strings from CM. For a team of their stature Destro/Calaio is a pretty decent partnership. Thus far they have been reliant on their home form as they a winless in their away matches. They have tended to dig in and try to stay tight away from home - particularly against the bigger sides. They will be hard pressed to score against Udinese anyway so they'll probably use this method again. It's true that Udinese are more suited to counter-attacking and breaking sides down is not their forte. However they've been putting sides away thus far, especially at home, so I'm happy to get on them in this one. Udinese -0.75 - 1.825 - 6 points - Bet365 I'm looking at Lecce and Cagliari on positive handicaps so I'd appreciate any views. Also overs in Palermo-Bologna.

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November The Genoa vs Inter game has been postponed due to bad weather in the region. Genoa has so far been the worst affected place, but a lot of Northern Italy has had and will continue to pretty dodgy weather this weekend, worth considering for Chievo and Milan matches possibly??? Novara vs Roma – Roma to win 2.05 at Victor Chandler (2 units) Whilst Novara may also be hit by the bad weather, they have a synthetic pitch which shouldn’t I believe be affected by rain, and if this is the case then it should allow Roma to play the brand of possession football they are trying to implement under Luis Enrique. Personally I’ve been a bit surprised with the criticism that Enrique has been getting as I don’t think Roma have been that bad and the players have shown plenty of signs that they are buying into his philosophy and trying to make it work. The main problem has been upfront, were the attacking players are not making the runs to take advantage of the amount of the ball the midfielders are getting, however that should come with time and in Bojan and Borini I feel they have the right players who are capable of doing this. As long as they keep plugging away then they should have enough to break through this Novara defence once or twice in this match. In many of their matches this season Roma have had the majority of possession (between 60-65% a lot of the time) and without the ball Novara may well struggle. They don’t really have any exceptional ball winners and no-one who is capable of creating something from nothing. First choice goalkeeper Ujkani and defender Lizuzzo are both still out having pick up injuries and these are still big losses for Novara. :hope

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

I'm looking at Lecce and Cagliari on positive handicaps so I'd appreciate any views. Also overs in Palermo-Bologna.

I'm fancying goals more than any win / handicap in the Cesena vs Leece match. Cesena have a new man in charge and combine that with this being a home game and Mutu being back and I think Cesena could nick this. Both sides will probably see this as a should win and I feel both will be going for the win. Haven't really seen enough of Cagliari this season to comment but against Cesena and Lazio it sounds like they were really poor, but then again Atalanta only have 1 win in 5 and their good run seems to have come to an end. Two very even teams so could be something in the +0.5 handicap here.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

I'm fancying goals more than any win / handicap in the Cesena vs Leece match. Cesena have a new man in charge and combine that with this being a home game and Mutu being back and I think Cesena could nick this. Both sides will probably see this as a should win and I feel both will be going for the win. Haven't really seen enough of Cagliari this season to comment but against Cesena and Lazio it sounds like they were really poor, but then again Atalanta only have 1 win in 5 and their good run seems to have come to an end. Two very even teams so could be something in the +0.5 handicap here.

I appreciate your thoughts. The Cesena game has too many if's surrounding it for me, though if they do get shorter then I may be tempted. That will be a match both teams will be gunning for. Cagliari have been utter shite recently but they are a decent side. Atalanta have been vulnerable of late but again, I probably need them to shorten a little bit more as well.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November Palermo v. Bologna This has potential to be a decent match. Pioli is returning to the club that sacked him prior to the season. He is returning in good form too, as Bologna have won 3 of their 4 games that he has led. Mangia should also be in good spirits as Palermo have extended his contract. Palermo have been dominant at home, winning all their matches so far. Palermo have not been as 'jekyl and hyde' under Mangia - compared to last season. However they are still a long way away from grinding out 1-0 wins. I do think that they have improved a bit defensively, though they aren't as sharp up front as they were last season. Miccoli is a doubt which is a shame because he is an absolute boss. Therefore I must expect Hernandez will have Illicic and Zahavi behind him. They are all talented but none are a picture of consistency. Still, they are tricky players who require defensive attention due to their movement and pace. I like that Migliaccio should move back into CM because he adds steel there. That means Cetto/Munoz will play alongside Silvestre which will be a 'new' partnership which could be a concern. My fading of Bologna, despite their new found form is largely due to their reliance on Ramirez. He is a sick player for sure, but if he doesn't play well then Bologna are screwed. As a whole they aren't a good side but he is a game changing player. Palermo at home are a tough side though so he wont find it as easy as he did against Atalanta. Bologna miss their main CB Portanova as well which is a relatively big deal because it means greater focus on Loria at CB. I was thinking goals in this match but Palermo aren't as liable as they used to be plus I'm not so sure of Bologna getting stuff popping if they are under great pressure. Palermo -0.75 - 1.825 - 3 points - Bet365

[Lennon]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

Palermo v. BolognaPalermo -0.75 - 1.825 - 3 points - Bet365

1.825 .. ? Has the price drifted all the 1.93 since you posted this ?

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November Yeah it drifted very soon after I took the bet which was annoying.

[Light]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November Hi :ok Cesena - Lecce Cesena @2.06 Bf Cesena has just changed, by Giampaolo to Arrigoni and to infuse new life into the team. Mutu back from suspension and will partner with Eder in a more usual 4-4-2. Facing a team in crisis, just one win this year and the situation of Di Francesco is at risk. In addition many absences: Di Michele (att. 5), Obodo (central 8), Mesbah (central 9 / 1) and Piatti (central 6). The Cesena need points and with the new coach, against a team in crisis has very good chances to get his first win in Serie A.

[baggio]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November Any news on Lazio - Parma and Udinese - Siena?

[AGurv]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November Italian Soccer 2011-2012 3W-0L-1P +3.00 units (100.00%) Cheivo pick +128 to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Cheivo doesnt often lose 2 in a row at home, while Fiorentina is just averaging 0.25 goals per game on the road.

[stefanos56]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

The Genoa vs Inter game has been postponed due to bad weather in the region. Genoa has so far been the worst affected place, but a lot of Northern Italy has had and will continue to pretty dodgy weather this weekend, worth considering for Chievo and Milan matches possibly??? Novara vs Roma – Roma to win 2.05 at Victor Chandler (2 units) Whilst Novara may also be hit by the bad weather, they have a synthetic pitch which shouldn’t I believe be affected by rain, and if this is the case then it should allow Roma to play the brand of possession football they are trying to implement under Luis Enrique. Personally I’ve been a bit surprised with the criticism that Enrique has been getting as I don’t think Roma have been that bad and the players have shown plenty of signs that they are buying into his philosophy and trying to make it work. The main problem has been upfront, were the attacking players are not making the runs to take advantage of the amount of the ball the midfielders are getting, however that should come with time and in Bojan and Borini I feel they have the right players who are capable of doing this. As long as they keep plugging away then they should have enough to break through this Novara defence once or twice in this match. In many of their matches this season Roma have had the majority of possession (between 60-65% a lot of the time) and without the ball Novara may well struggle. They don’t really have any exceptional ball winners and no-one who is capable of creating something from nothing. First choice goalkeeper Ujkani and defender Lizuzzo are both still out having pick up injuries and these are still big losses for Novara. :hope

I followed you on this so thanks very much mate.

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

Novara vs Roma – Roma to win 2.05 at Victor Chandler (2 units) :hope

Good start to weekend in Serie A, +2.1 units. For today; Udinese vs Siena – Udinese -1AH 2.20 at Victor Chandler (2.5 units) I’m with Ultravires on this one, we should see a win for Udinese today. I don’t have any concerns about the big midweek defeat as the team that day was mainly made up of 8 / 9 back up players who will be back on the bench today. The usual first eleven is a lot stronger, and this season have shown that they can take the game to the opposition rather than wait for counter attacking opportunities. They are 4 wins out of 4 at home including impressive displays against Fiorentina and Palermo. Siena will probably set up just like all the other 4 teams who have faced Udinese away this season and in all likelihood they will get picked off as well. Indeed on the Gazetta and Goal.com websites they seem to be indicating that Siena will pick the same team as won 4-1 last weekend. Whilst that was an impressive performance, I think you take a big gamble playing a 4 in midfield against Udinese. I guess either Destro or Calaio could drop deeper but that’s not really their game, and I would also have concerns with both Brienza and D’Agostino in midfield as albeit very good creatively, neither are overly known for defensive qualities. If Siena do try to take the game to Udinese then things could get even worse for them. Milan vs Catania – under 2.5 goals 2.20 at Coral (1.5 units) More injuries and suspensions for Milan, and as we saw earlier in the season, they could toil with some key players missing. Nesta will miss this game and they have long term injury issues with Pato, Flamini, Gattuso, Mexes and sadly now Cassano. Also banned for this match are Nocerino and Boateng. Those two being huge losses in my eyes. The midfield is therefore likely to include Seedorf, Ambrosini and Van Bommell and whilst these are still steady players, they are not overly creative and could tire as the game goes on. It’s also unlikely that Robino or Zlatan will step back into midfield to help them out if Catania do have any spells of pressure in the game. Catania are a decent away side and have scored a number of goals on the road this season so I’m sure they will have such spells.However I’m not sure whether they have enough quality in midfield and upfront to really trouble Milan, but they could frustrate them and prevent them from running away with this game. Chievo vs Fiorentina – Fiorentina to win 2.6 at Coral (2 units) Cheivo are missing 3 of the first choice back four, and Fiorentina should surely be looking to take advantage of this. For Cheivo, Bostan Cesar is banned, and Sardo and Morero are both still injured. Having conceded 4 against Siena its clear the loss of these players has had a major effect on Chievo’s defensive capability and Fiorentina should be looking to get the win. For Mihajlovic the pressure is off a little after a win vs Genoa last week and an apology from the Fiorentina fans for jeering him over the last few weeks, and this could allow them to play with a bit more freedom and really unlock the creative skills that they have in abundance. No really injuries concerns for Mihajlovics team either with the exception of Koldrup. Its probably worth noting that the weather is likely to be pretty shitty in Verona for this match and the pitch is likely to be affected somewhat. May limit what Fiorentina can do, but with 3 key defenders out I still think they can force the win. Cesena vs Leece – both teams to score 2.0 at Coral (2 units) Could be an open game this one, with both teams wanting / needing the win and so I think both will be going for it. Over 2.5 is a good option too but given the lack of striking quality both teams have perhaps it is too optimistic to expect either to score more than once. Cesena have a new manager and he will want to start with a win, and also could spring one or two tactical surprises on Leece. With Mutu back and the Cesena crowd always producing a good atmosphere I think they will somehow be able to force a goal. Leece have conceded in all but two games this season. For Leece, without Di Michele they rely on the speed and directness of players like Cuadrado when attacking and I think this could cause Cesena problems, especially with key midfielder Colucci out for Cesena. The Cesena defence have shown themselves to be quite solid against any aerial threats but if Leece can get the ball to Grossmuller and Cuadrado then they have enough trickery to get past the defence a fair few times I feel. :hope Still weighing up Napoli vs Juve, but I'm thinking goals. Just need to see what's availiable.

[sportxtipster]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November AC Milan vs Catania Despite the fact that Catania had good results against Milan since they got the promotion, I think Milan is the favorite side in this game. They know that have a greta opportunity to get again the title, but they must not lose points with the smaller teams. Ibrahimovici, Seedorf, Aquillani, Robinho, Vanm Bommel are just enough to cover the absentees of Milan: Nesta, Cassano, Pato, Flamini, Mexes, Antonini, Boateng and Nocerino. catania will not have Ledesma - big loss, Llam, Suazo - big loss, Capuano, Alvarez. Expect a game with many goals as Catania is capable of scoring and conceding lots of goals in every match like they did in last 6 games. over 2.5 goals @ 1.87 with Canbet Cesena vs Lecce This is a game that can be easily won by Cesena. With Mutu again on the first eleven and I hope much more closer to what he did for Firenze, expect Cesena to get first win this season. Last 3 games at home were 3 draws for Cesena. Lecce wasn't a team to fear on away games, especially in the last period.Lecce will not have availbale for this match: Di Michele - big loss, Diamoutene, Ferrario and Obodo. home win @ 2.03 with 5Dimes Lazio vs Parma Lazio will welcome for this game the great trio: Hernanes, Cisse, Klose. With ledesma in midfield I expect to see some goals from their side. They had problems in scoring goals, managed just 4 at home with 4 conceded, have just 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Parma is playing a 4-4-1-1 withh all their big nmaes inside: Biabiany, Morrone, Modesto, Giovinco and Pelle. Parma scored and conceded in all of their last games so I expect them to score once on Olimpico. over 2.5 goals @ 2.01 with 188bet

[Light]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November Atalanta - Cagliari Atalanta @2.24 Bf Both teams are coming from a defeat by 3 goals conceded, but we can not emphasize the performance of 'Atalanta, that without the 6 penalty points would be in sixth place over Napoli. To confirm my thesis there is also rumors of a possible exemption Ficcadenti, although Cagliari is the tenth and this could destabilize the environment a little.

[SlyNF]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November Does anyone know what happened to the Inter game? Just checked on livescore and its showing as postponed??

[Light]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

Does anyone know what happened to the Inter game? Just checked on livescore and its showing as postponed??

Yes, postponed for the flooding that hit the city, also napoli-juventus has now been postponed

[SlyNF]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

Yes' date=' postponed for the flooding that hit the city, also napoli-juventus has now been postponed[/quote'] Thanks for the reply mate.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November I've left it late because I wanted to see the line-ups and hoped for a little drift on Lecce. I can't really agree with Cesena being such favourites. I see this match as a straight battle and I fancy Lecce more to be honest. Parolo/Candreva is a pretty weak CM and I think Strasser and Grossmuller/Bertolacci will have them in there. Oliviera, Cuardado and Bertolacci are all decent going forward. I'm not sure about Muriel up front but I think they could build chances well enough. Mutu is back for Cesena but I think they'll be reliant on bit of magic from him today. They have a new manager which can be positive, but there is no guarantee they'll click well today. Both teams are doing terrible at the moment but Lecce have shown me more than Cesena recently. The manager is an unknown factor but I don't think Cesena should be such strong favourites. Lecce +0.5 - 1.90 - 3 points - Bet365

[Light]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

Atalanta - Cagliari Atalanta @2.24 Bf 1-0 Both teams are coming from a defeat by 3 goals conceded, but we can not emphasize the performance of 'Atalanta, that without the 6 penalty points would be in sixth place over Napoli. To confirm my thesis there is also rumors of a possible exemption Ficcadenti, although Cagliari is the tenth and this could destabilize the environment a little.

Hi :ok Cesena - Lecce Cesena @2.06 Bf 0-1 Cesena has just changed, by Giampaolo to Arrigoni and to infuse new life into the team. Mutu back from suspension and will partner with Eder in a more usual 4-4-2. Facing a team in crisis, just one win this year and the situation of Di Francesco is at risk. In addition many absences: Di Michele (att. 5), Obodo (central 8), Mesbah (central 9 / 1) and Piatti (central 6). The Cesena need points and with the new coach, against a team in crisis has very good chances to get his first win in Serie A.

Little profit, Cesena wasting too much and is punished for the right angle.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November

Udinese -0.75 - 1.825 - 6 points - HALF WIN

Palermo -0.75 - 1.825 - 3 points - WIN

Lecce +0.5 - 1.90 - 3 points - WIN

Much better for me this week. It was a bit of a drab weekend though. I didn't really enjoy any of the matches that I watched. Cesena-Lecce was pretty open but the lack of quality was the dominant factor. Udinese kept moving with another win. Gutted about Napoli-Juve being postponed, that could have been a cracker.