Flat racing Saturday 15th October

[bowles10]

Ascot the main meeting:clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 2:25 Ascot - Night Carnation - 1.50pts e/w @ 22/1 (Boylesports) I rarely ever back horses unless I think that they will have ideal conditions for their race but I'm going to break that rule here in the hope that I'm quite wrong about Night Carnation's ability - or lack of - to handle fast ground. Anyone who has read what I've posted throughout the year will know that I've previously earmarked Andrew Balding's 3 year old filly as a potential Group 1 performer when her ideal race conditions would arise and I'm still of that opinion, assuming she stays in training as a 4 year old as this will be her last outing for the season and it's a Group 2 race. It was a 5f Group 3 win at Sandown that initially led me to believe that Night Carnation was of the highest quality, as she blitzed the field to score by nearly 2 lengths. In hindsight, she was favoured by numerous things - not least the draw bias that exists over that C&D and that was the main reason why some of her opposition could never get competitive. Regardless of that, the way she travelled mid-race before quickening up the Sandown hill was impressive and achieved with consummate ease. All of this is made even more impressive as she was facing properly quick ground for the first time, something that her trainer previously worried about. That run would give cause for hoping that conditions won't hinder her today, even though plenty of other things went well for her and the opposition who were given a fair chance to compete just weren't that good in the grand scheme of things. It's still a run worthy of a lot of respect and if she can improve on it, which seems likely, a big run could be in order here. Night Carnation was then put away after that race (July 2nd) until this day 4 weeks ago (September 17th) when she reappeared to tackle another Group 3 contest, this time over Newbury's 5 furlongs on what was decent, good ground. She moved into contention nicely enough but having raced with the choke out early on in the race, she couldn't find a whole pile in the closing stages. In the end, Balding's charge was beaten by little more than 3 lengths, finishing 5th, behind the likely favourite for today's race - James Fanshawe's vastly improved 4 year old gelding, Deacon Blues (3/1 here). I genuinely think that form can be turned around as Newbury just isn't the ideal place for Night Carnation, even though I stupidly backed her on that occasion thinking she'd get away with the easy track. A stiff 5f is ideal for her but connections are now upping her back to 6f and that's something that I always thought could suit now that she's a much improved animal compared to her couple of juvenile outings over this trip. She just didn't go at Newbury and looked quite awkward in the way she held her head. It's possible that she needed the outing after such a long break and she should be spot on here for what I now consider to be a much more suitable race for her. The ground has to be a big worry but she is a 22/1 shot and I'll play small/medium each-way stakes in the hope that she can run her race. Apart from the ground, there's no obvious reason why she can't give her best and the price just seems much too big to me.

[Lars]

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 4:45 Ascot - Valencha - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes, 5 places) It's hard enough to solve a 29 runner handicap, it's even harder when the jockeys on board are inexperienced apprentice riders. However, Valencha, a progressive 4 year old filly, has the excellent Harry Bentley on board and the pairing look in with a decent shout of running a big race here. Hughie Morrison has really worked wonders with this animal, as she's most consistent having never finished out of the first four in 16 career outings - 3 of which were wins and another 9 being placed efforts. Horses holding their form are always worth a second look at this time of year and this filly shows no signs of losing hers just yet. Valencha comes here to race off a career-high mark of 87 having been raised 5lbs for a half-length victory in a 15 runner handicap last time out. That was over this 7f trip at Epsom and she was given a fine ride by the recently retired (not for long I hope) Richard Hughes, as he produced her nicely through tight gaps in order to give Morrison's charge her first win in 5 races (that win also under Hughes). That was only a C4 event and obviously this is a lot tougher, the toughest task of her career, but she remains progressive and could have another few lbs in hand. The majority of the race-pace seems to be drawn relatively high and Valencha has a sit in stall 19, which should prove to be a good draw. Another thing I'd usually look for with horses running here is previous course form and this filly has lined up twice at this track. On both occasions, she finished in 2nd place having looked the most likely winner and it's possible that she hit the front too early each time. Although she did run in to a very progressive type in William Haggas' Electra Star on the second occasion and that was over a mile - 7f is her optimum. Hughie Morrison has his yard in great form of late, with 4 winners and a number of close efforts from his 22 runners this month. Backing stables in good knick is another thing that comes in handy at this time of year and he has his going well. He also has a fine record at the track and 5 winners, 4 seconds and 1 third have resulted from just 17 runners at the track this year. Valencha looks capable of adding to that under the guidance of Harry Bentley and he also does well here, having achieved 3 winners and 3 places from 15 rides here. It'll be a very tough contest to win but there are 5 places being paid with a good few firms and 14/1 looks big (can get 16's with 4 places). I'll play medium each-way stakes and hopefully this progressive filly will continue to run her usual solid race and run into a place at least. Of the rest, I'd be delighted to see a big run from my old friend Striking Spirit (22/1) and he's worthy of having a few quid on each-way too. The likely favourite, Pearl Ice, could be anything but may not be favourably positioned and the 15/2 about him does not appeal, even though Sir Mark said he'd make a very nice 3 year old after he sluiced up when last seen, just over a year ago. He could be anything but the price isn't big enough. Woodcote Place isn't without a chance at 33/1 either. The rest don't really appeal too much at the prices.

[wwweeerrr]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October Bonjour Mon Ami's One bet today MOONLIGHT CLOUD 143+ ( My Time figure) ) should take all the beating in the sprint. This is a very smart filly and was Favourite for the Guineas don't forget. The delay at the start that day didn't help and probably neither did the 8f. She hacked up in a Group one last time over 6.5 F and Ascot should suit. I wouldn't want the ground to get much faster but they usually have a good covering of grass there and Good ground at this time of year should be fine. Of course DEACON BLUES (140) will be there abouts but has only won in Grp 3 company and 3 year olds have a very good record in this race. This is my second posting about this horse so take note!!

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Ascot 2:25
Selection	Moonlight Cloud
Strength	4/10
Date	15/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Totesport @ 4.50
Reasoning	Won Group 1 contest in France last time out. Deafeted Society Rock by 4 lengths. Jockey Thierry Jarnet was on board that day and again booked today. He replaced David Bonilla two runs ago who was on board the previous six starts. It was a good decision, they won first time together in a Group 3 race at Longchamp then gained her first Group 1 win next time out. Both runs was at 7f but the drop to 6 is not a problem. She showed her speed two runs ago when taking the lead soon after the start and was ridden clear from halfway. Connections had high hopes for her early in the year being sent to the 1000 Guineas but could only finish 7th as the favorite. A much better horse today and dropped to a Group 2 race.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Ascot 2:25
Selection	Silverside (To Be Placed)
Strength	3/10
Date	15/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 12.00
Reasoning	Career best last time out when winning a Group 2 contest. Germany's top sprint, the Goldene Peitsche (‘Golden Whip') at Baden-Baden. It was als his first time trying 6f so the travel today could payoff well for connections with this being a 6f test. He drew clear to a 2 1/2 length victory inside the final furlong. He was the 17-1 shot but trainer Frederic Sanchez was not suprised with the win. He also ran well in Norway two runs ago where he finished 3rd and has been making good progress all year for jockey Julien Grosjean. They finished unplaced (8th then 4th) the first two runs being at 1m, they dropped to 7f two runs back then the 6f win last time out.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Ascot 2:25
Selection	Wizz Kid (Each-way)
Strength	2/10
Date	15/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 12.00
Reasoning	Group 2 winner three runs ago in June at Chantilly beating Prohibit in a 5f race by a head. Prohibit went on to win the King Stand's (G1) 9 days later and placed 3rd in the Nunthorpe (G1) right after. The selection have not been as successful at Group 1 races but did not finish far. Her next two runs after that win was in Group 1 races where she finished 5th of 15 each time getting beat by just 2 and 1 1/4 lengths. She's only had four starts this year so there could be more left in the tank for this return to Group 2 contest.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October Cork 2.35 Awareness 0.5pt EW - 12/1 gen Blatant lay job when last seen. Johnny Murtagh gave him an awful ride. His wife still owns him, but the horse changed hands and although I've no idea if they are trying today, I'll have a small nibble. Has some decent form in maidens and the mark looks workable.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 2:20 Catterick: See Clearly 1pt win 16/1 Victor Chandler & Feelthedifference 1pt win 11/4 Bet365 Based on jockey bookings See Clearly is probably not Tim Easterby's first choice here, although the fact he goes with more than one suggests there is not much between them. See Clearly was five lengths behind Mince last time out at Pontefract. and that reads like pretty decent form. Mince won in a fast time and then was only narrowly beaten yesterday by Ballesteros, who came in to that race on the back of a win. The ground was much heavier at Haydock, so Mince probably did well there. See Clearly should handle today's going having won at Catterick on good to soft when beating Cravat. Cravat has been a bit up and down since in subsequent efforts but has gone in again. See Clearly looks to have a sporting chance. Feethedifference lines up with only two runs beside her name and could be a fair bit better than she has already shown. While Sir Henry will be focusing on Ascot he could pick up a winner here with Paul Hanagan aboard.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 3:00 Ascot: Bible Belt 1pt win 20/1 Ladbrokes If Mrs Harrington brings a horse over from Ireland its usually worth close inspection, and taking out Bible Belt's last run at The Curragh when a disappointing favourite in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes her form reads very well. Going in to that race Bible Belt had already run up a hat trick, beating Wild Wind and Look At Me both solid performers rated around the 105-108 mark. Presumably, Jessica Harrington feels Bible Belt is back to her best and with the prospect of some improvement over this extra distance of ground she could out run her price.

[Striker]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October Good Luck All 5.15 Catterick-Music Festival each/way @ 10-1 [stan James] Like the booking of champion jockey Paul Hanagan

[wwweeerrr]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October

3:00 Ascot: Bible Belt 1pt win 20/1 Ladbrokes If Mrs Harrington brings a horse over from Ireland its usually worth close inspection, and taking out Bible Belt's last run at The Curragh when a disappointing favourite in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes her form reads very well. Going in to that race Bible Belt had already run up a hat trick, beating Wild Wind and Look At Me both solid performers rated around the 105-108 mark. Presumably, Jessica Harrington feels Bible Belt is back to her best and with the prospect of some improvement over this extra distance of ground she could out run her price.

Yes I thought the same thing early but then looked at the race again and thought it was too difficult with the likes of Vita Nova, Dancing Rain, Ferdoos and Banimpire but at the price go for it! There has been a lot of money about for GLAMOROUS ANGEL in the first at Catterick and this is a very nicely bred 2 year old that has already won. I think it should act on the ground and I managed to get 11/8 early but it is now trading around Evens. My nap today is MOONLIGHT CLOUD and you can see my comments earlier on the page.

[RussP]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October

Good Luck All 5.15 Catterick-Music Festival each/way @ 10-1 [stan James] Like the booking of champion jockey Paul Hanagan

Come on mate, we don't ask much but a bit of reasoning wouldn't go amiss.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October Gonna go through the Ascot card: 1.50 - 2pts win Opinion Poll @ 5/2 (Bet365) Fame and Glory obviously has a chance, but has put in a couple of disappointing efforts since his Gold Cup win over my selection, and that means I'm going to go with the more solid option today. Times Up is progressing well and won very easily last time, but has to step up again today, and I think the rock solid form of the Godolphin horse sways the balance for me. Opinion Poll won at Goodwood and York narrowly following the Gold Cup, possibly despite of the track at the former. The 18f trip at Doncaster might just have left him vulnerable at the finish last time - so the step back to 2 miles will be up his street today. Also, the winner of that race looks an unexposed type over staying distances and you can't really begrudge the victory. Everything looks rock solid for another big run from Opinion Poll, and I think he's up to winning another big staying race this season. 2.25 Ascot - 2.5pts e/w Society Rock @ 13/2 (Bet365) James Fanshawe has a strong hand in the sprint, and if it weren't for the inclusion of Moonlight Cloud, would look like he could have a 1-2 finish. The French horse is naturally a big threat given the way she won last time (from my selection), but I think thi s year's Golden Jubilee winner can reverse that form over the c&d he relishes. Society Rock's record at Ascot reads 121 - with the only defeat coming in the previous year's renewal of the Golden Jubilee, when a gallant 2nd to Starspangledbanner. His effort in France was perfectly respectable - for all he couldn't get near the winner - given the trip on the ground might have just stretched his stamina slightly. His run at Haydock in the Sprint Cup was another good effort, considering he saves his best for Ascot. He was beaten by the draw. The first 5 home were drawn 9, 15, 13, 14, 12. Society Rock came home 6th having been drawn in stall 1. He's drawn low Again today, so we'll just have to hope the race pans out okay for him. He looks a good each-way bet to me at 13/2 given his course form. He's definitely good enough to win this, but will face a tricky task up against two thriving horses.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 3.00 - 2pts e/w Banimpire @ 9/1 (Bet365) Banimpire has had a very busy season - running no fewer than 11 times since March - but she seems to have thrived on it as she's picked up 6 wins in the process, among some other good efforts. She progressed well to win the Ribblesdale over course and distance and only just failed to beat Blue Bunting in the epic finish of the Irish Oaks. She won over a trip slightly on the short side over 10f back in Ireland before flopping somewhat in the Yorkshire Oaks. However, she raced keenly on the testing ground and it just caught her out when it mattered. She bounced back last time again over 1m2f in France in a decent race, and now back at Ascot with ideal conditions, can put it to her rivals. 3.35 Ascot - No bet Just going to watch the race and enjoy it. Frankel faces two other top 3 year olds, but you have to fancy he'll have too much once more. Excited to watch him every time he runs. 4.10 Ascot - 1.5pts e/w Dubai Prince @ 8/1 (Bet365) Dermot Weld hailed Dubai Prince as the best 2yo he'd trained before his move to Godolphin, and he looks like he'll be every bit as good at 3 and 4 also. He's extremely unexposed relative to the rest of the field, and could be very good indeed in my opinion. He beat Seville on his debut and then destroyed a Group 3 field before having a break from the track. The absence did no harm as he won well at Newbury from two next time out winners (the 2nd by 9l). He'll come on plenty for that, and even though this is a step up in class, I think he's capable of making it.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 3.00 Ascot - Gertrude Bell 12-1 Bet365/Bible Belt 20-1 Bet365 (EW) I think these two both look overpriced and the former already has a win over Vita Nova and has not been out since that race. Vita Nova has franked the form and I don't see why there is such a difference in the odds with that rival. Gosden has shown he can get horses fit for the day like with Masked Marvel in the Leger and 12-1 looks generous. It's a Group 2 winner over the trip and worthy of ew support, at least. Bible Belt is one that needs to be forgiven one bad run last time out and its a shot in the dark as to whether it will get the trip. Only 3 year old, improving and has plenty of ability, having won 3 times this season and naturally progressing into this company. 3.35 Ascot - Side Glance 16-1 VCBet and Immortal Verse 15/8 Betfred (w/o fav) I don't think any racing fan wants to oppose Frankel because it has been so good for racing and we love our heroes and superstars but there is no value in backing it at 4-11 either. If you don't think it can be beaten then there is no point betting each way as you are accepting the loss of your win part of the bet so the w/o fav market looks the best alternative. Immortal Verse is a real live danger for me and if Frankel is to ever get beaten it could be today but the worry is the ground for the French horse. It has a lightning turn of foot and if staying close enough to Frankel we might see a race to the line. Side Glance impressed me at Listed level and was unlucky to get stuck in a pocket against Dick Turpin. It then won a Group 3 and was 4th in Canada at Group 1 level. It has a decent attitude and could spring a surprise today by taking a place at a huge price. It shouldn't be good enough but I think it's better than just the stats suggest. 4.10 Ascot - Green Destiny 25-1 Bet365 (EW), Cirrus Des Aigles 9-1 Bet365 (EW), Twice Over 12-1 Bet365 (EW) I want to take on So You Think and feel these 3 provide very different betting opportunities. Cirrus Des Aigles is ultra consistent and has gone close to Sarafina and Goldikova. I'm not always too keen on backing fillies against colts but at the price it is worth a chance. Green Destiny just managed to win a Group 3 but still looks progressive. The price looks generous. I feel it is a Group 3 horse in a Group 1 race but I'm willing to be proven wrong and don't mind a small investement at the price to find out. Twice Over has the proven form in the bag and I feel this has a better chance than well fancied Midday. 12-1 for a proven Group 1 performer seems a bit of an insult. Horse is in fine form, having won its last 2 races and still enjoys a battle as we saw at York.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 3:00 Ascot Dancing Rain 1pt EW - 11/2 (Bet365) This doesn't look a brilliant field imo, and Dancing Rain has had a cracking season and has just as much chance as any. Might have 'stolen' the Oaks, but when things didn't go to plan in Ireland (never had run of the race) she still finished only two lengths behind Blue Bunting and rallied well. Then went out and won the German Oaks easily under Fallon. Murtagh's back on board here and if she can get a nice lead, has every chance. 3:35 Ascot Frankel 5pt win - 2/5 (Ladbrokes) Dick Turpin 1pt EW - 8/1 (without Frankel, Ladbrokes) I back any price if it's value, and this is massive value for me and worthy of a max bet. This horse takes all other horses out of their comfort zones because he's so good. So many fancied horses have ended up well back in the field because they couldn't go with him. I think the fact a lot of people are talking up IV as his main danger says it all. She's flattered by her form imo. I make him a 1/6 shot here. He has no chinks, no quirks, no weaknesses and he's capable of cantering to victory here. Dick Turpin is overpriced without Frankel. Things not exactly panned out for him this year but his Ascot form is good (12) with the loss being to Canford in the St James'. If they don't try going with Frankel I think he's got a big chance of finishing second.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 3.50 CATTERICK~ Very open and tough race this i've plumped for 0.5 E/W FATHOM FIVE 20/1 PP who has a good draw down to a winning mark and ground to suit. 2.25 ASCOT~0.25 E/W LIBRANNO 40/1 Bet365 Hell of a price for the Hannon 3yo which interestingly Fallon is booked for the spare ride! Poor run in France three runs back and has to bit to find with a few of these on that and can be forgiving lto as a mile was to far for the horse sandwich in between that was a Group 3 win at Goodwood when fought back to win could trouble these at what is a massive price.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October

3.50 CATTERICK~ Very open and tough race this i've plumped for 0.5 E/W FATHOM FIVE 20/1 PP who has a good draw down to a winning mark and ground to suit. 2.25 ASCOT~0.25 E/W LIBRANNO 40/1 Bet365 Hell of a price for the Hannon 3yo which interestingly Fallon is booked for the spare ride! Poor run in France three runs back and has to bit to find with a few of these on that and can be forgiving lto as a mile was to far for the horse sandwich in between that was a Group 3 win at Goodwood when fought back to win could trouble these at what is a massive price.

Not sure if you got 40's just before the off but was 3rd at 25-1 SP. :okWell done on the place. :)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October

Not sure if you got 40's just before the off but was 3rd at 25-1 SP. :okWell done on the place. :)

:cheers Copied and pasted from my thread where i did it before 2pm:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October

:cheers Copied and pasted from my thread where i did it before 2pm:ok

Great stuff then, always good to beat the SP, even better when it's by 15 points. :clap

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October In the last at Ascot you pay your money and take your chance as 29 go to post for the app handicap and i'll take to e/w at massive prices the top weight drawn low and the bottom weight drawn high.0.25 E/W WOODCOTE PLACE 66/1 SJ Not without a chance won easily a C5 at Goodwood in August althoughh tis is a big stepup has ran well since and is in good form. 0.25 E/W VC AXIOM 66/1 Has won two C2 off 94 & 99 ran really well lto and may pop up very soon. (now gone 50's)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 8.30 WOLVES ~FOLLY DROVE .25 E/W 16/1 SPORTING BET 16's is to big a price for this one imo. Won here on only try on the AW off 2lb lower. This is a bit further but should be in there pitching at the death. Left turf form behind when won here last time and needs to do the same but 16's is a good e/w price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October Some good stuff with BKI getting Dancing Rain & Mowgli with Cirrus Des Aigles :clap ....(handy bog there too) And Ted with 40/1 place....