Flat racing Saturday 15th October

[bowles10]

Ascot the main meeting:clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat racing Saturday 15th October 2:25 Ascot - Night Carnation - 1.50pts e/w @ 22/1 (Boylesports) I rarely ever back horses unless I think that they will have ideal conditions for their race but I'm going to break that rule here in the hope that I'm quite wrong about Night Carnation's ability - or lack of - to handle fast ground. Anyone who has read what I've posted throughout the year will know that I've previously earmarked Andrew Balding's 3 year old filly as a potential Group 1 performer when her ideal race conditions would arise and I'm still of that opinion, assuming she stays in training as a 4 year old as this will be her last outing for the season and it's a Group 2 race. It was a 5f Group 3 win at Sandown that initially led me to believe that Night Carnation was of the highest quality, as she blitzed the field to score by nearly 2 lengths. In hindsight, she was favoured by numerous things - not least the draw bias that exists over that C&D and that was the main reason why some of her opposition could never get competitive. Regardless of that, the way she travelled mid-race before quickening up the Sandown hill was impressive and achieved with consummate ease. All of this is made even more impressive as she was facing properly quick ground for the first time, something that her trainer previously worried about. That run would give cause for hoping that conditions won't hinder her today, even though plenty of other things went well for her and the opposition who were given a fair chance to compete just weren't that good in the grand scheme of things. It's still a run worthy of a lot of respect and if she can improve on it, which seems likely, a big run could be in order here. Night Carnation was then put away after that race (July 2nd) until this day 4 weeks ago (September 17th) when she reappeared to tackle another Group 3 contest, this time over Newbury's 5 furlongs on what was decent, good ground. She moved into contention nicely enough but having raced with the choke out early on in the race, she couldn't find a whole pile in the closing stages. In the end, Balding's charge was beaten by little more than 3 lengths, finishing 5th, behind the likely favourite for today's race - James Fanshawe's vastly improved 4 year old gelding, Deacon Blues (3/1 here). I genuinely think that form can be turned around as Newbury just isn't the ideal place for Night Carnation, even though I stupidly backed her on that occasion thinking she'd get away with the easy track. A stiff 5f is ideal for her but connections are now upping her back to 6f and that's something that I always thought could suit now that she's a much improved animal compared to her couple of juvenile outings over this trip. She just didn't go at Newbury and looked quite awkward in the way she held her head. It's possible that she needed the outing after such a long break and she should be spot on here for what I now consider to be a much more suitable race for her. The ground has to be a big worry but she is a 22/1 shot and I'll play small/medium each-way stakes in the hope that she can run her race. Apart from the ground, there's no obvious reason why she can't give her best and the price just seems much too big to me.